Saturday, January 3, 2009

Catching up; AL Central moves

Nick Punto signs a 2 year, $8.5 million deal with the Minnesota Twins
Punto offers a glove and can play all of the infield. That's about it. If the Twins are signing him expecting him to repeat 2008, they're going to be very surprised.

2008 Nick Punto offered a .726 OPS, not good, but respectable enough for a good-fielding middle infielder -- though, of course, if that's all the Twins wanted, they could have just kept Jason Bartlett (who received MVP votes for a .690 OPS in 2008, proof that at least one Tampa area sportswriter should face charges before a UN tribunal). So the Twins made a solid $4 million investment in a reasonably productive hitter and a versatile slick glove, right?

Wrong. They invested $4 million a year for an excellent Punto year, and one that wasn't particularly impressive at that. He's only twice cracked the .700 OPS threshold, mustering a .725 in 2006 and a .726 in 2008. In between, when entrusted with the starting job at third base in 2007, Punto mashed a whopping .562 OPS, .210/.291/.271. You read that right, a .271 slugging percentage. Punto can be expected to strike out about once every five at bats, a pretty high rate for such a punchless hitter (compare to players I regard as comparable -- this is probably a completely specious selection, since it proved my point so readily -- John McDonald (25 K in 186 at bats); Mark Grudzialanek (41 K in 331 at bats), David Eckstein (32 K in 334 at bats), he grounded into 10 double plays in 2008, and he has absolutely no power -- his career high for home runs in a season is 2. Lest you be enamored with his theoretical ability to move guys over -- nope, 7 sacrifices of any variety in 2008. So while I urged him as a more sensible alternative than paying Edgar Renteria real money -- let's not get carried away, the real issue was that Renteria is not worth money and Punto can at least field.

Punto at least bought the Twins an insurance policy so that they didn't HAVE to invest in multiple infielders, but they didn't really need one, because they already had Brendan Harris, who's certainly no equal with the glove, but has already shown considerably more offensive potential in his brief run in the majors and the ability to hit for power on a team that's got a dearth of it.

If they keep Punto as the starter, then the Twins should give serious consideration to moving Michael Cuddyer back to third to ensure Denard Span is in the everyday lineup. His production in 2008 was the key to turning the season into a near-playoff run, and although it's unlikely the Twins will put Carlos Gomez on the bench, he shouldn't be displacing Span. Slotting Cuddyer into third with Brian Buscher as an alternative means the Twins have some more offensive potential, though the real solution is putting Carlos Gomez on the bench until his bat can catch up with his glove.

Projected Twins lineup:
RF Span
2B Casilla
C Mauer
1B Morneau
DH Kubel
LF Young
3B Buscher
SS Punto
CF Gomez

Cleveland Indians sign Kerry Wood to a 2-year, $20.5 million contract

Although the Indians probably jumped the gun in signing Wood so early in the free agent period, by doing so, they helped move Mark Shapiro on to other projects that have ultimately been successful.

There’s really only one conclusion to the deal; if Wood stays healthy, it’s a win for the Indians. When Wood has been on the mound, success has always been the result. He’s had one below average season ever, and it was 8 years ago.

The move to the bullpen rejuvenated Wood’s career, he was solid in 2007, though he struggled to spot his pitches. In 2008, he showed pinpoint control, without losing his ability to strike out hitters.

Wood fared better at home than on the road, despite the Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field, but still posted solid numbers on the road. Wood blew 5 saves in 39 opportunities, certainly not a great proportion, but one that will prove to be a substantial improvement over Joe Borowski and while giving Indians fans far fewer heart attacks.

Wood proved durable, working on back-to-back days with some regularity (even pitching in four straight days in August).

I’m in the minority, but I think Wood was the premier closer on the free agent market. He has the strikeout flair and velocity that Francisco Rodriguez has lost, he has electric stuff even after years of arm problems, and he’s been consistently successful in a way that Brian Fuentes has not. And he’s still only 31. Most of all, he brings some actual force to the closer role. It’s been more than a decade since the Indians had a closer who could strike out hitters at a rate near one an inning. (Trivia buffs – the answer would be 1997’s part time closer Mike Jackson). If you exclude him…the Indians may never have had one. Not Ernie Camacho, Doug Jones, Jose Mesa, Bob Wickman, or the late Steve Olin. They’ve got one now.

Cleveland Indians trade Franklin Gutierrez to the Seattle Mariners for Luis Valbuena and acquire RHP Joe Smith from the New York Mets.

The Indians added a middling middle infield prospect and a relatively local right-handed reliever to fill out the bullpen in front of Kerry Wood for the price of Franklin Gutierrez. Although the return is relatively modest, it appears to be a solid move for the Indians, who are thin up the middle and appear to have completely given up on Josh Barfield.

The submarining Smith has been relatively ineffective in his two years in the Mets' organization. His ERA won't show it, though, having gotten by on sheer fortune. In 2007, despite a WHIP of 1.56, Smith rode a strikeout rate exceeding one per inning to a 3.45 ERA. In 2008, he cut down on baserunners and put sported a 3.45 ERA, but showed a vastly reduced ability to punch out hitters, and a skepticism-inducing 3 unearned runs out of 28 total runs. In 2007, his WHIP was driven largely by an astronomical BABIP (.360), but the reduction had just as much to do with it (a similarly unsustainable .271).

Smith's problem is his control. Although the numbers are skewed by the inclusion of 8 intentional walks in two major league seasons, Smith has a walk rate of just about 4.5 walks per 9 innings, which means a lot of dangerous innings. Smith is also extremely ineffective against left-handed hitters, which could create a tough situation for the Indians, whose left-handed complement to the bullpen currently consists of Rafael Perez and only Rafael Perez. His home run rate should also rise now that Smith is no longer pitching his home games in the vast expanse of Shea Stadium, but Smith has lived as an extreme groundball pitcher, so the difference will likely be one or two home runs at most.

Gutierrez was an enigma. He was a top prospect when the Indians acquired him from the Dodgers for Milton Bradley and had shown flashes of living up to the reputation, putting together a strong season in 2007, but regressed badly in 2008, looking incompetent against breaking balls and showing little ability to hit for power, steal bases, and a continued inability to work counts and draw walks. He was unlikely to warrant playing time over Ben Francisco, Shin-Soo Choo and David Dellucci, so trading him doesn't create much of a problem for the Indians, who would likely play Trevor Crowe in center field if Sizemore went down for an extended period of time.

Kyle Farnsworth signs a 2-year, $9.25 million contract with the Kansas City Royals (with a $8 million club option for 2010 with a $500,000 buyout)

Dayton Moore is making his case for joining the worst GMs in the World list – should it be extended to a Top 5, his 2008 is making him an obvious selection. Here, he’s buying a pitcher with electric stuff and absolutely no track record for success. Farnsworth has put up a career ERA of 4.47 and a WHIP of 1.40, surrendered a lot of home runs (particularly in recent years) and issued far too many walks. He put up respectable numbers in 2008 with the Yankees, who still fell all over themselves trying to trade him to the Tigers, with whom he put an astonishingly bad run (ERA of 6.75, WHIP of 2.00 in 16 innings pitched)

Aside from half a season in Detroit in 2005, Farnsworth’s only successful seasons have been in the National League.

The good news for the Royals is that after a brief plunge in his strikeout rate in 2007, Farnsworth was back to his usual strikeout an inning in 2008. The bad news is that he allowed 15 home runs in 60 innings in 2008. His fly-ball tendencies won’t be nearly as cataclysmic in Kauffman Stadium, which was the second worst park for hitting home runs in 2008, but home runs have never been Farnsworth’s primary problem, so the number was likely to plunge in 2009 anyway.

Thursday, January 1, 2009

Catching up; NL East Transactions: Ibanez, Putz, Cabrera, Moyer

Philadelphia Phillies sign Raul Ibanez to a 3-year, $31.5 million contract.

Pat Burrell was exactly what the Phillies needed in their lineup, a batter who can work counts, hit for power, and swings well against left-handed pitchers. He wasn’t a great defender, but he had a phenomenal arm once he got to balls, catching more than a number of baserunners dead to rights when they simply assumed he could never hobble to the ball in time.

Raul Ibanez is a left-handed batter who hits for less power, draws fewer walks, but makes more contact. He is a similarly dreadful defender in left field, is even older than Pat Burrell and runs only marginally better than Burrell, whose parting moment as a Phillie was an inside-the-park home run in Game 5 of the World Series that Burrell barely turned into a double.

Ibanez, like Chan Ho Park and Jamie Moyer below, are players that Ruben Amaro is in love with based on their 2008 performances. Although Ibanez has been a perpetually solid hitter since he actually cracked an everyday lineup in Kansas City, he doesn’t fit the Phillies’ needs, because aside from the 2008 season (where Ruben Amaro witnessed a .305 against lefties /.288 against right-handers split, he’s never hit left-handed pitching all that well (.268/.293 career numbers)). Ibanez is still likely going to lead to Charlie Manuel using Eric Bruntlett in left field (to the extent he’s not filling in at second base for Chase Utley), so he didn’t resolve the biggest gripe that the Phillies could have with Pat Burrell. Though I’d never have thought it possible, it looks like Ibanez has been just as streaky as Burrell the last two years (for instance, Ibanez put up the following lines:.396/.452/.703 in August 2008; .233/.292/.301 for a woeful OPS of .593 in September 2008; .184/.241/.262 in July 2007; .374/.447/.682 in August 2007). Before that, his numbers fell far more in the .750-.890 range on a monthly basis.

Ibanez is a fine player and although he’s 36, he probably feels younger than Pat Burrell on a daily basis considering Ibanez’s slow rise to the majors and just as slow rise to everyday status in the major leagues. But it’s hard to envision him putting up numbers that match Burrell’s. He’s not going to draw as many walks (admittedly, he’ll strike out considerably less, but with Howard in front of him once Utley returns, this just increases the double play possibilities since Ibanez is much more of a ground ball hitter than Burrell). He’s not a fly ball hitter like Burrell, which means he’s not ideally suited to play in Philadelphia anyway, and he’s ultimately going to prove to be equally expensive. While Amaro could have come up with a way to respectably pass Burrell’s torch, signing an equally costly player with the same deficiencies but less upside was not it.

Philadelphia Phillies sign Jamie Moyer to a 2-year, $18 million contract; Philadelphia Phillies sign Chan Ho Park to a 1 year, $2.5 million contract potentially worth $5 million

If there is a single transaction representing just how out of touch Ruben Amaro is with the 2009 free agent market, well, there’s actually two, and for convenience, I’ve lumped them together.

The Moyer deal represents a matter of loyalty. I’d said all offseason that the Phillies had to re-sign Moyer, he represented so much of their success in 2008 and the market was unlikely to be competitive.

And, indeed, there were no signs that the market was competitive, but Amaro still coughed up an astounding $18 million for a pitcher who will be a month shy of 48 when the contract lapses.

Moyer was bafflingly successful in 2008, putting up a 3.71 ERA, 16-7 record, and a WHIP of 1.33. That said, most of that success was on the road, where Moyer’s ERA was more than a run and a half below his ERA at Citizens Bank Park. It wasn’t merely home runs either (11 allowed at home, 9 on the road), Moyer just allowed more hits (109 in 91 2/3 innings at home; 90 in 104 2/3 innings on the road).

The Phillies can expect a regression to the mean, an ERA somewhere at least half a run higher than 2008 (and even a run and a half wouldn’t be shocking), but they can expect Moyer to last into 5-6 innings in every start that’s not in the playoffs. He won’t walk a ton of batters, he probably won’t give up a ton of home runs (Moyer’s 2004 season stands as one of the great aberrations in history), and he is likely to make 32 starts, even at the age of 47 (he hasn’t missed a start in…at least 7 years). But he’s not going to pitch deep into games and he’s not the kind of guy who can stop a losing streak. And in this market, he was not a guy who is going to get a $9 million contract anywhere else.

Chan Ho Park is 7 years removed from being a competent pitcher. Although moving him to the bullpen has let him scatter his ineffectiveness and pin inherited runs allowed on the pitcher preceding him, Park has shown no real signs of success since he signed his preposterous contract with the rangers.

Like Joe Smith (now of the Indians), Park represents a player whose ERA is truly deceiving. In 2008, he had a 3.40 ERA, but had a WHIP of 1.40, allowed 12 home runs and 7 of the 43 runs he allowed were unearned. Anytime you see a number that high in the unearned runs column, you have to wonder just how unearned they really were, particularly when that’d push his ERA up more than half a run. Park is historically a pitcher who allows a fair number of fly balls, which would not play well in Philadelphia (especially compared to Los Angeles). While 2007 is likely an aberration, 2008 appears just as anomalous, so unless Park took 35 years to learn to keep the ball down, the name on Chan Ho’s jersey will tell you where his pitches will be leaving.

The Phillies have said Park will have a chance to compete for the fifth starter job, but I have to write this off as the same story we heard about Chad Durbin in 2007. If the Phillies want a lousy fifth starter who’s made a name for himself with an unwarranted contract, they already have Adam Eaton. In Park, they have another pitcher to keep Clay Condrey from pitching in meaningful games and insurance against Durbin being overworked again in 2009. But at the price they paid, with incentives that could double the value of the contract, and Park’s age, the Phillies would have been better suited to sit this one out. The Phillies are already among the oldest teams in baseball with Matt Stairs, Jamie Moyer, Raul Ibanez, Methuselah, and Grandma Moses among the players certain to crack the 25-man roster, adding a marginally effective for one year reliever who doesn’t even have the hope of angling for another big contract was not the move to make.

Phillies projected Opening Day lineup, pitching rotation and bullpen:
SS Rollins
CF Victorino
LF Ibanez
1B Howard
RF Werth
3B Feliz/Dobbs
C Ruiz
2B Bruntlett/Donald
Pitcher

With Utley, Ibanez should drop to 5th in the Pat Burrell slot, Werth/Dobbs, Feliz, and Ruiz would drop down.

LHP Hamels
RHP Myers
LHP Moyer
RHP Blanton
LHP Happ/RHP Carrasco/RHP Eaton/RHP Kendrick

RHP Lidge
RHP Madson
LHP Romero
RHP Durbin
LHP Eyre
RHP Park
RHP Condrey


NY Mets Acquire RHP J.J. Putz, RHP Sean Green and OF Jeremy Reed from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for RHP Aaron Heilman, OF Endy Chavez, LHP Jason Vargas, INF Mike Carp, OF Ezequiel Carrera and RHP Maikel Cleto. The Mets also sent RHP Joe Smith to the Cleveland Indians to complete the trade.

The Mets swung a big deal the day they acquired K-Rod that gave them one of the best closers in baseball, and it certainly wasn’t the Rodriguez signing. In exchange for players that the Mets considered expendable (only Heilman being an impressive major league player at any point in his Mets career; Chavez is a decent defender, Smith was overrated), they landed an expensive setup man in J.J. Putz and a once-promising center fielder in Jeremy Reed.

The prospects they lost have some promise but are far from sure things – Carp is still only 22, but hit well in his second run through AA Binghamton, neither Carrera nor Cleto cracked Baseball America’s top 30 list for the Mets last year.

With apologies to C.C. Sabathia, Putz was baseball’s best pitcher in 2007 (or at least the most successful), even if he didn’t warrant the Cy Young, and he was nearly as good in 2006. 2008 was less successful, since Putz missed a chunk of the season with arm injuries and the Mariners floundered to become one of the worst teams in baseball. Still, Putz was respectable, bouncing back from a horrible start to post a 3.88 ERA. What’s more, his 2008 numbers resulted in part from a ludicrously high BABIP of .360 (that said, 2007’s numbers resulted from a .205 BABIP, so the real Putz is somewhere in between there two). In any event, even 2008 J.J. Putz should be closing, not Francisco Rodriguez.

Sean Green has not proven much as a right-handed reliever in the majors the last two years. He doesn’t strike batters out, he walks a fair number, and he couldn’t get lefties out at all in 2008. But, like Putz, his year-by-year numbers are less glaring, so it’s possible he could become a one-inning guy who pitches the 6th or 7th for the Mets.

Jeremy Reed was once projected to win multiple batting titles (thank you, Baseball Weekly), but has now been reveled as a Brian Anderson clone who can’t hit for any power, doesn’t hit for much of an average and isn’t even adept at stealing bases (19 steals in 37 career attempts). He doesn’t hit left-handers at all, and he doesn’t generate much against right-handed pitchers (.275/.330/.392 career against right-handed pitchers). He’ll likely fill the Endy Chavez role.

The deal should be a good one for the Mets, at least until it becomes clear whether Mike Carp can be an everyday first baseman in the Majors (particularly since the Mets will need a first baseman after Delgado’s contract runs out in 2009). Putz is locked down for 2009 with a team option for 2010, Green and Reed are league minimum players for now.


New York Mets acquire Connor Robertson from the Arizona Diamondbacks for Scott Schoeneweis

Schoeneweis became yet another scapegoat for problems that really reflected the incompetence of an entire bullpen. He’s hardly a dynamite reliever, he lacks strikeout punch and walks more than you’d like, but he’s also the kind of pitcher who has the potential to be effective for a long time, because his success isn’t premised on great stuff.

In exchange for Schoeneweis, the Mets landed Connor Robertson, who has a whopping 9 innings of major league experience and is now in his third organization in a span of 363 days. While the organization hopping is a bad sign, Robertson has shown tremendous strikeout potential in the minors, averaging over a strikeout an inning without showing any signs of control problems for much of his career. 2007, however, he walked a batter every two innings, which portends ill for the not-so-young right-hander (he’s 27 and will be 28 by the end of the 2009 season). After moving in leaps and bounds in his first few minor league seasons, Robertson has plateaued as a middling reliever in AAA, putting up ERAs of 4.35 and 5.02 respectively. He’s not likely to give up a lot of home runs and does a good job keeping his fastball down, but has enough trouble with singles and doubles that he’s not likely to be much more than a 12th man in the Mets bullpen in the foreseeable future.

Daniel Cabrera signs a one-year deal with the Washington Nationals
If you were a fan of pitching living along the Beltway and you could have chosen to drive to home games at either Camden Yards or Nationals Ballpark, you likely are no longer with us to read of this signing, having elected suicide rather than either road trip. So you wouldn't be here to shrug your shoulders, knowing that Daniel Cabrera, he of the electric stuff with absolutely no command is moving about 40 miles to the southwest.

Cabrera is no longer a player who projects well, he's worked with some impressive pitching coaches during his run as one of the least competent starters in the game with strikeout stuff. And the real news that is hidden by his lousy season in 2008 was that he didn't even strike batters out. After years of 157 and 166, Cabrera notched only 95 strikeouts in 180 innings. If it was because he was emphasizing control, it didn't show, since he still walked 90 batters in that span -- giving him a pathetic 1.05 K/BB ratio and a K/9 number of 4.75, down 2 1/2 strikeouts from 2007, which was itself down 2 from 2006. Cabrera managed 10 "quality starts" in 2008, but also managed 8 starts with 6 or more earned runs.

So, plummeting K rate, no control, wildly inconsistent...any upside? Not much. He's 27, so it may be that he's just going to hit his stride in 2008, but it'd be truly astonishing, considering that he's not a raw 27 -- he's already made 146 major league starts. He's got three pitches, but he can't locate them. He's never pitched in relief, so it's not clear whether he'd be able to transition to being a setup man. He has been pretty healthy, having started 64 games in the last two seasons, but any pitcher of his size is a risk for back problems as his career drags on.

Nationals Projected rotation:
LHP Lannan
RHP Balester
LHP Olsen
RHP Cabrera
RHP Martis/RHP Hill/RHP Bergmann


Florida Marlins sign Scott Proctor to a one year deal potentially worth $1 million

Apparently finding Joe Nelson too expensive (though he ultimately signed for a whopping $1.3 million), the Marlins signed a potential replacement from the Dodgers for a $750,000 base salary. Proctor was ineffective in 2008, largely because he simply walked too many batters. After showing good control in 2006, when he was overworked to the tune of 102 innings in 83 appearances for the Yankees, Proctor walked 44 in 95 innings in 2007 and then 24 in only 38 2/3 innings last year. With the wildness has come an increase in strikeouts, so it may just be a change in approach now that he’s no longer an everyday pitcher in the bullpen, but more likely the drop in role had to do with the shoddy performance.

There’s a good chance that Proctor won’t ever bounce back, plenty of pitchers have faded after being worked too hard, and two years of 90+ innings is a lot for a reliever these days. Last year he missed extended time with elbow issues in his throwing arm, and was ultimately left off the Dodgers’ playoff roster…which wasn’t exactly dripping with veteran pitchers. Proctor also gave up loads of home runs considering the cavernous park he called home in 2008; every time he took a mound outside of Los Angeles, the ball seemed to find the seats. The good news for the Marlins is that Dolphins Stadium is just about as pitcher-friendly. The bad news is that the Marlins have a schedule involving a shocking 81 road games in 2009.

To the extent he has value left, it comes from his ability to work solid innings rather than only pitch to right-handed batters. The batting average against Proctor over the course of his career is nearly dead even, with lefties batting .248 and right-handed batters batting .247 against him. This gives the Marlins an opportunity to fill out the 7th or 8th inning and gives them an alternative to lefty Leo Nunez and right-handed Logan Kensing, but they can’t consider it a particularly certain solution.

In all, the deal makes sense, at this point, even Gary Majewski is potentially getting $750,000, Proctor certainly will be better than Majewski if he can get his arm healthy. His September was promising, Proctor posted a WHIP of 1.00 and an ERA in 2.57 in his 8 September appearances, but the sample size and the fact that Proctor has always been overvalued by his biggest fan (Joe Torre) will keep him from being a tide-turner in the Marlins’ bullpen.