Second Season Sports

Catching up; AL Central moves

2009-01-03T19:15:00.000-08:00

Nick Punto signs a 2 year, $8.5 million deal with the Minnesota Twins
Punto offers a glove and can play all of the infield. That's about it. If the Twins are signing him expecting him to repeat 2008, they're going to be very surprised.

2008 Nick Punto offered a .726 OPS, not good, but respectable enough for a good-fielding middle infielder -- though, of course, if that's all the Twins wanted, they could have just kept Jason Bartlett (who received MVP votes for a .690 OPS in 2008, proof that at least one Tampa area sportswriter should face charges before a UN tribunal). So the Twins made a solid $4 million investment in a reasonably productive hitter and a versatile slick glove, right?

Wrong. They invested $4 million a year for an excellent Punto year, and one that wasn't particularly impressive at that. He's only twice cracked the .700 OPS threshold, mustering a .725 in 2006 and a .726 in 2008. In between, when entrusted with the starting job at third base in 2007, Punto mashed a whopping .562 OPS, .210/.291/.271. You read that right, a .271 slugging percentage. Punto can be expected to strike out about once every five at bats, a pretty high rate for such a punchless hitter (compare to players I regard as comparable -- this is probably a completely specious selection, since it proved my point so readily -- John McDonald (25 K in 186 at bats); Mark Grudzialanek (41 K in 331 at bats), David Eckstein (32 K in 334 at bats), he grounded into 10 double plays in 2008, and he has absolutely no power -- his career high for home runs in a season is 2. Lest you be enamored with his theoretical ability to move guys over -- nope, 7 sacrifices of any variety in 2008. So while I urged him as a more sensible alternative than paying Edgar Renteria real money -- let's not get carried away, the real issue was that Renteria is not worth money and Punto can at least field.

Punto at least bought the Twins an insurance policy so that they didn't HAVE to invest in multiple infielders, but they didn't really need one, because they already had Brendan Harris, who's certainly no equal with the glove, but has already shown considerably more offensive potential in his brief run in the majors and the ability to hit for power on a team that's got a dearth of it.

If they keep Punto as the starter, then the Twins should give serious consideration to moving Michael Cuddyer back to third to ensure Denard Span is in the everyday lineup. His production in 2008 was the key to turning the season into a near-playoff run, and although it's unlikely the Twins will put Carlos Gomez on the bench, he shouldn't be displacing Span. Slotting Cuddyer into third with Brian Buscher as an alternative means the Twins have some more offensive potential, though the real solution is putting Carlos Gomez on the bench until his bat can catch up with his glove.

Projected Twins lineup:
RF Span
2B Casilla
C Mauer
1B Morneau
DH Kubel
LF Young
3B Buscher
SS Punto
CF Gomez

Cleveland Indians sign Kerry Wood to a 2-year, $20.5 million contract

Although the Indians probably jumped the gun in signing Wood so early in the free agent period, by doing so, they helped move Mark Shapiro on to other projects that have ultimately been successful.

There’s really only one conclusion to the deal; if Wood stays healthy, it’s a win for the Indians. When Wood has been on the mound, success has always been the result. He’s had one below average season ever, and it was 8 years ago.

The move to the bullpen rejuvenated Wood’s career, he was solid in 2007, though he struggled to spot his pitches. In 2008, he showed pinpoint control, without losing his ability to strike out hitters.

Wood fared better at home than on the road, despite the Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field, but still posted solid numbers on the road. Wood blew 5 saves in 39 opportunities, certainly not a great proportion, but one that will prove to be a substantial improvement over Joe Borowski and while giving Indians fans far fewer heart attacks.

Wood proved durable, working on back-to-back days with some regularity (even pitching in four straight days in August).

I’m in the minority, but I think Wood was the premier closer on the free agent market. He has the strikeout flair and velocity that Francisco Rodriguez has lost, he has electric stuff even after years of arm problems, and he’s been consistently successful in a way that Brian Fuentes has not. And he’s still only 31. Most of all, he brings some actual force to the closer role. It’s been more than a decade since the Indians had a closer who could strike out hitters at a rate near one an inning. (Trivia buffs – the answer would be 1997’s part time closer Mike Jackson). If you exclude him…the Indians may never have had one. Not Ernie Camacho, Doug Jones, Jose Mesa, Bob Wickman, or the late Steve Olin. They’ve got one now.

Cleveland Indians trade Franklin Gutierrez to the Seattle Mariners for Luis Valbuena and acquire RHP Joe Smith from the New York Mets.

The Indians added a middling middle infield prospect and a relatively local right-handed reliever to fill out the bullpen in front of Kerry Wood for the price of Franklin Gutierrez. Although the return is relatively modest, it appears to be a solid move for the Indians, who are thin up the middle and appear to have completely given up on Josh Barfield.

The submarining Smith has been relatively ineffective in his two years in the Mets' organization. His ERA won't show it, though, having gotten by on sheer fortune. In 2007, despite a WHIP of 1.56, Smith rode a strikeout rate exceeding one per inning to a 3.45 ERA. In 2008, he cut down on baserunners and put sported a 3.45 ERA, but showed a vastly reduced ability to punch out hitters, and a skepticism-inducing 3 unearned runs out of 28 total runs. In 2007, his WHIP was driven largely by an astronomical BABIP (.360), but the reduction had just as much to do with it (a similarly unsustainable .271).

Smith's problem is his control. Although the numbers are skewed by the inclusion of 8 intentional walks in two major league seasons, Smith has a walk rate of just about 4.5 walks per 9 innings, which means a lot of dangerous innings. Smith is also extremely ineffective against left-handed hitters, which could create a tough situation for the Indians, whose left-handed complement to the bullpen currently consists of Rafael Perez and only Rafael Perez. His home run rate should also rise now that Smith is no longer pitching his home games in the vast expanse of Shea Stadium, but Smith has lived as an extreme groundball pitcher, so the difference will likely be one or two home runs at most.

Gutierrez was an enigma. He was a top prospect when the Indians acquired him from the Dodgers for Milton Bradley and had shown flashes of living up to the reputation, putting together a strong season in 2007, but regressed badly in 2008, looking incompetent against breaking balls and showing little ability to hit for power, steal bases, and a continued inability to work counts and draw walks. He was unlikely to warrant playing time over Ben Francisco, Shin-Soo Choo and David Dellucci, so trading him doesn't create much of a problem for the Indians, who would likely play Trevor Crowe in center field if Sizemore went down for an extended period of time.

Kyle Farnsworth signs a 2-year, $9.25 million contract with the Kansas City Royals (with a $8 million club option for 2010 with a $500,000 buyout)

Dayton Moore is making his case for joining the worst GMs in the World list – should it be extended to a Top 5, his 2008 is making him an obvious selection. Here, he’s buying a pitcher with electric stuff and absolutely no track record for success. Farnsworth has put up a career ERA of 4.47 and a WHIP of 1.40, surrendered a lot of home runs (particularly in recent years) and issued far too many walks. He put up respectable numbers in 2008 with the Yankees, who still fell all over themselves trying to trade him to the Tigers, with whom he put an astonishingly bad run (ERA of 6.75, WHIP of 2.00 in 16 innings pitched)

Aside from half a season in Detroit in 2005, Farnsworth’s only successful seasons have been in the National League.

The good news for the Royals is that after a brief plunge in his strikeout rate in 2007, Farnsworth was back to his usual strikeout an inning in 2008. The bad news is that he allowed 15 home runs in 60 innings in 2008. His fly-ball tendencies won’t be nearly as cataclysmic in Kauffman Stadium, which was the second worst park for hitting home runs in 2008, but home runs have never been Farnsworth’s primary problem, so the number was likely to plunge in 2009 anyway.

Catching up; NL East Transactions: Ibanez, Putz, Cabrera, Moyer

2009-01-01T18:05:00.000-08:00

Philadelphia Phillies sign Raul Ibanez to a 3-year, $31.5 million contract.

Pat Burrell was exactly what the Phillies needed in their lineup, a batter who can work counts, hit for power, and swings well against left-handed pitchers. He wasn’t a great defender, but he had a phenomenal arm once he got to balls, catching more than a number of baserunners dead to rights when they simply assumed he could never hobble to the ball in time.

Raul Ibanez is a left-handed batter who hits for less power, draws fewer walks, but makes more contact. He is a similarly dreadful defender in left field, is even older than Pat Burrell and runs only marginally better than Burrell, whose parting moment as a Phillie was an inside-the-park home run in Game 5 of the World Series that Burrell barely turned into a double.

Ibanez, like Chan Ho Park and Jamie Moyer below, are players that Ruben Amaro is in love with based on their 2008 performances. Although Ibanez has been a perpetually solid hitter since he actually cracked an everyday lineup in Kansas City, he doesn’t fit the Phillies’ needs, because aside from the 2008 season (where Ruben Amaro witnessed a .305 against lefties /.288 against right-handers split, he’s never hit left-handed pitching all that well (.268/.293 career numbers)). Ibanez is still likely going to lead to Charlie Manuel using Eric Bruntlett in left field (to the extent he’s not filling in at second base for Chase Utley), so he didn’t resolve the biggest gripe that the Phillies could have with Pat Burrell. Though I’d never have thought it possible, it looks like Ibanez has been just as streaky as Burrell the last two years (for instance, Ibanez put up the following lines:.396/.452/.703 in August 2008; .233/.292/.301 for a woeful OPS of .593 in September 2008; .184/.241/.262 in July 2007; .374/.447/.682 in August 2007). Before that, his numbers fell far more in the .750-.890 range on a monthly basis.

Ibanez is a fine player and although he’s 36, he probably feels younger than Pat Burrell on a daily basis considering Ibanez’s slow rise to the majors and just as slow rise to everyday status in the major leagues. But it’s hard to envision him putting up numbers that match Burrell’s. He’s not going to draw as many walks (admittedly, he’ll strike out considerably less, but with Howard in front of him once Utley returns, this just increases the double play possibilities since Ibanez is much more of a ground ball hitter than Burrell). He’s not a fly ball hitter like Burrell, which means he’s not ideally suited to play in Philadelphia anyway, and he’s ultimately going to prove to be equally expensive. While Amaro could have come up with a way to respectably pass Burrell’s torch, signing an equally costly player with the same deficiencies but less upside was not it.

Philadelphia Phillies sign Jamie Moyer to a 2-year, $18 million contract; Philadelphia Phillies sign Chan Ho Park to a 1 year, $2.5 million contract potentially worth $5 million

If there is a single transaction representing just how out of touch Ruben Amaro is with the 2009 free agent market, well, there’s actually two, and for convenience, I’ve lumped them together.

The Moyer deal represents a matter of loyalty. I’d said all offseason that the Phillies had to re-sign Moyer, he represented so much of their success in 2008 and the market was unlikely to be competitive.

And, indeed, there were no signs that the market was competitive, but Amaro still coughed up an astounding $18 million for a pitcher who will be a month shy of 48 when the contract lapses.

Moyer was bafflingly successful in 2008, putting up a 3.71 ERA, 16-7 record, and a WHIP of 1.33. That said, most of that success was on the road, where Moyer’s ERA was more than a run and a half below his ERA at Citizens Bank Park. It wasn’t merely home runs either (11 allowed at home, 9 on the road), Moyer just allowed more hits (109 in 91 2/3 innings at home; 90 in 104 2/3 innings on the road).

The Phillies can expect a regression to the mean, an ERA somewhere at least half a run higher than 2008 (and even a run and a half wouldn’t be shocking), but they can expect Moyer to last into 5-6 innings in every start that’s not in the playoffs. He won’t walk a ton of batters, he probably won’t give up a ton of home runs (Moyer’s 2004 season stands as one of the great aberrations in history), and he is likely to make 32 starts, even at the age of 47 (he hasn’t missed a start in…at least 7 years). But he’s not going to pitch deep into games and he’s not the kind of guy who can stop a losing streak. And in this market, he was not a guy who is going to get a $9 million contract anywhere else.

Chan Ho Park is 7 years removed from being a competent pitcher. Although moving him to the bullpen has let him scatter his ineffectiveness and pin inherited runs allowed on the pitcher preceding him, Park has shown no real signs of success since he signed his preposterous contract with the rangers.

Like Joe Smith (now of the Indians), Park represents a player whose ERA is truly deceiving. In 2008, he had a 3.40 ERA, but had a WHIP of 1.40, allowed 12 home runs and 7 of the 43 runs he allowed were unearned. Anytime you see a number that high in the unearned runs column, you have to wonder just how unearned they really were, particularly when that’d push his ERA up more than half a run. Park is historically a pitcher who allows a fair number of fly balls, which would not play well in Philadelphia (especially compared to Los Angeles). While 2007 is likely an aberration, 2008 appears just as anomalous, so unless Park took 35 years to learn to keep the ball down, the name on Chan Ho’s jersey will tell you where his pitches will be leaving.

The Phillies have said Park will have a chance to compete for the fifth starter job, but I have to write this off as the same story we heard about Chad Durbin in 2007. If the Phillies want a lousy fifth starter who’s made a name for himself with an unwarranted contract, they already have Adam Eaton. In Park, they have another pitcher to keep Clay Condrey from pitching in meaningful games and insurance against Durbin being overworked again in 2009. But at the price they paid, with incentives that could double the value of the contract, and Park’s age, the Phillies would have been better suited to sit this one out. The Phillies are already among the oldest teams in baseball with Matt Stairs, Jamie Moyer, Raul Ibanez, Methuselah, and Grandma Moses among the players certain to crack the 25-man roster, adding a marginally effective for one year reliever who doesn’t even have the hope of angling for another big contract was not the move to make.

Phillies projected Opening Day lineup, pitching rotation and bullpen:
SS Rollins
CF Victorino
LF Ibanez
1B Howard
RF Werth
3B Feliz/Dobbs
C Ruiz
2B Bruntlett/Donald
Pitcher

With Utley, Ibanez should drop to 5th in the Pat Burrell slot, Werth/Dobbs, Feliz, and Ruiz would drop down.

LHP Hamels
RHP Myers
LHP Moyer
RHP Blanton
LHP Happ/RHP Carrasco/RHP Eaton/RHP Kendrick

RHP Lidge
RHP Madson
LHP Romero
RHP Durbin
LHP Eyre
RHP Park
RHP Condrey

NY Mets Acquire RHP J.J. Putz, RHP Sean Green and OF Jeremy Reed from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for RHP Aaron Heilman, OF Endy Chavez, LHP Jason Vargas, INF Mike Carp, OF Ezequiel Carrera and RHP Maikel Cleto. The Mets also sent RHP Joe Smith to the Cleveland Indians to complete the trade.

The Mets swung a big deal the day they acquired K-Rod that gave them one of the best closers in baseball, and it certainly wasn’t the Rodriguez signing. In exchange for players that the Mets considered expendable (only Heilman being an impressive major league player at any point in his Mets career; Chavez is a decent defender, Smith was overrated), they landed an expensive setup man in J.J. Putz and a once-promising center fielder in Jeremy Reed.

The prospects they lost have some promise but are far from sure things – Carp is still only 22, but hit well in his second run through AA Binghamton, neither Carrera nor Cleto cracked Baseball America’s top 30 list for the Mets last year.

With apologies to C.C. Sabathia, Putz was baseball’s best pitcher in 2007 (or at least the most successful), even if he didn’t warrant the Cy Young, and he was nearly as good in 2006. 2008 was less successful, since Putz missed a chunk of the season with arm injuries and the Mariners floundered to become one of the worst teams in baseball. Still, Putz was respectable, bouncing back from a horrible start to post a 3.88 ERA. What’s more, his 2008 numbers resulted in part from a ludicrously high BABIP of .360 (that said, 2007’s numbers resulted from a .205 BABIP, so the real Putz is somewhere in between there two). In any event, even 2008 J.J. Putz should be closing, not Francisco Rodriguez.

Sean Green has not proven much as a right-handed reliever in the majors the last two years. He doesn’t strike batters out, he walks a fair number, and he couldn’t get lefties out at all in 2008. But, like Putz, his year-by-year numbers are less glaring, so it’s possible he could become a one-inning guy who pitches the 6th or 7th for the Mets.

Jeremy Reed was once projected to win multiple batting titles (thank you, Baseball Weekly), but has now been reveled as a Brian Anderson clone who can’t hit for any power, doesn’t hit for much of an average and isn’t even adept at stealing bases (19 steals in 37 career attempts). He doesn’t hit left-handers at all, and he doesn’t generate much against right-handed pitchers (.275/.330/.392 career against right-handed pitchers). He’ll likely fill the Endy Chavez role.

The deal should be a good one for the Mets, at least until it becomes clear whether Mike Carp can be an everyday first baseman in the Majors (particularly since the Mets will need a first baseman after Delgado’s contract runs out in 2009). Putz is locked down for 2009 with a team option for 2010, Green and Reed are league minimum players for now.

New York Mets acquire Connor Robertson from the Arizona Diamondbacks for Scott Schoeneweis

Schoeneweis became yet another scapegoat for problems that really reflected the incompetence of an entire bullpen. He’s hardly a dynamite reliever, he lacks strikeout punch and walks more than you’d like, but he’s also the kind of pitcher who has the potential to be effective for a long time, because his success isn’t premised on great stuff.

In exchange for Schoeneweis, the Mets landed Connor Robertson, who has a whopping 9 innings of major league experience and is now in his third organization in a span of 363 days. While the organization hopping is a bad sign, Robertson has shown tremendous strikeout potential in the minors, averaging over a strikeout an inning without showing any signs of control problems for much of his career. 2007, however, he walked a batter every two innings, which portends ill for the not-so-young right-hander (he’s 27 and will be 28 by the end of the 2009 season). After moving in leaps and bounds in his first few minor league seasons, Robertson has plateaued as a middling reliever in AAA, putting up ERAs of 4.35 and 5.02 respectively. He’s not likely to give up a lot of home runs and does a good job keeping his fastball down, but has enough trouble with singles and doubles that he’s not likely to be much more than a 12th man in the Mets bullpen in the foreseeable future.

Daniel Cabrera signs a one-year deal with the Washington Nationals
If you were a fan of pitching living along the Beltway and you could have chosen to drive to home games at either Camden Yards or Nationals Ballpark, you likely are no longer with us to read of this signing, having elected suicide rather than either road trip. So you wouldn't be here to shrug your shoulders, knowing that Daniel Cabrera, he of the electric stuff with absolutely no command is moving about 40 miles to the southwest.

Cabrera is no longer a player who projects well, he's worked with some impressive pitching coaches during his run as one of the least competent starters in the game with strikeout stuff. And the real news that is hidden by his lousy season in 2008 was that he didn't even strike batters out. After years of 157 and 166, Cabrera notched only 95 strikeouts in 180 innings. If it was because he was emphasizing control, it didn't show, since he still walked 90 batters in that span -- giving him a pathetic 1.05 K/BB ratio and a K/9 number of 4.75, down 2 1/2 strikeouts from 2007, which was itself down 2 from 2006. Cabrera managed 10 "quality starts" in 2008, but also managed 8 starts with 6 or more earned runs.

So, plummeting K rate, no control, wildly inconsistent...any upside? Not much. He's 27, so it may be that he's just going to hit his stride in 2008, but it'd be truly astonishing, considering that he's not a raw 27 -- he's already made 146 major league starts. He's got three pitches, but he can't locate them. He's never pitched in relief, so it's not clear whether he'd be able to transition to being a setup man. He has been pretty healthy, having started 64 games in the last two seasons, but any pitcher of his size is a risk for back problems as his career drags on.

Nationals Projected rotation:
LHP Lannan
RHP Balester
LHP Olsen
RHP Cabrera
RHP Martis/RHP Hill/RHP Bergmann

Florida Marlins sign Scott Proctor to a one year deal potentially worth $1 million

Apparently finding Joe Nelson too expensive (though he ultimately signed for a whopping $1.3 million), the Marlins signed a potential replacement from the Dodgers for a $750,000 base salary. Proctor was ineffective in 2008, largely because he simply walked too many batters. After showing good control in 2006, when he was overworked to the tune of 102 innings in 83 appearances for the Yankees, Proctor walked 44 in 95 innings in 2007 and then 24 in only 38 2/3 innings last year. With the wildness has come an increase in strikeouts, so it may just be a change in approach now that he’s no longer an everyday pitcher in the bullpen, but more likely the drop in role had to do with the shoddy performance.

There’s a good chance that Proctor won’t ever bounce back, plenty of pitchers have faded after being worked too hard, and two years of 90+ innings is a lot for a reliever these days. Last year he missed extended time with elbow issues in his throwing arm, and was ultimately left off the Dodgers’ playoff roster…which wasn’t exactly dripping with veteran pitchers. Proctor also gave up loads of home runs considering the cavernous park he called home in 2008; every time he took a mound outside of Los Angeles, the ball seemed to find the seats. The good news for the Marlins is that Dolphins Stadium is just about as pitcher-friendly. The bad news is that the Marlins have a schedule involving a shocking 81 road games in 2009.

To the extent he has value left, it comes from his ability to work solid innings rather than only pitch to right-handed batters. The batting average against Proctor over the course of his career is nearly dead even, with lefties batting .248 and right-handed batters batting .247 against him. This gives the Marlins an opportunity to fill out the 7th or 8th inning and gives them an alternative to lefty Leo Nunez and right-handed Logan Kensing, but they can’t consider it a particularly certain solution.

In all, the deal makes sense, at this point, even Gary Majewski is potentially getting $750,000, Proctor certainly will be better than Majewski if he can get his arm healthy. His September was promising, Proctor posted a WHIP of 1.00 and an ERA in 2.57 in his 8 September appearances, but the sample size and the fact that Proctor has always been overvalued by his biggest fan (Joe Torre) will keep him from being a tide-turner in the Marlins’ bullpen.

Momentary lapse into rage...

2008-12-23T19:05:00.000-08:00

Reading on the Teixeira signing that I discuss below, I saw this link.

If there is any proof on this planet that democracy doesn't work, it is that any vote not rigged by Diebold resulted in Aaron Boone's home run to defeat the Red Sox in game 7 of the 2003 ALCS being voted the most memorable moment in Yankee Stadiums I & II. Were the question restricted solely to Yankee Stadium post-renovation, it's plausible, but the Boone home run was considered the greatest moment in both incarnations of Yankee Stadium.

Having not been alive for many moments of significance at Yankee Stadium, I am limited to a mere three moments that ARE UNQUESTIONABLY more impressive that I am generating from memory (I now see the others are listed, but to prove the preposterousness at hand, I decline to read them).
1. Don Larsen - October 8, 1956 - throws a PERFECT GAME (one of seventeen in the history of baseball) in the WORLD GODDAMN SERIES.
2. Babe Ruth farewell speech to baseball (come on)
3. Lou Gehrig farewell speech (this is one of the greatest moments in baseball... period)

Then there's oh...
4. The possibly apocryphal called shot home run from Babe Ruth in the 1932 World Series.
5. Roger Maris swats home run number 61 off Tracy Stallard (ok, this isn't from memory, I had to look up that it took place at Yankee Stadium, but damn it, it did)
6. Most of the 2001 World Series
7. Hell, the 1977 World Series.
8. The 2000 World Series...it's a Subway series, proof that we can have a World Series that interests no one in 47 states (New Jersey and Connecticut, I'm sure, were tuning in).
9. Josh Hamilton receiving fellatio from Rick Reilly during the 2008 Home Run Derby, which he lost. This is more important because of the irony content. Baseball officially reached post-modernism here.

Teixeira, the Worst GMs in the World, Majewski

2008-12-23T18:49:00.000-08:00

We might as well start with the most baffling signing of the day. No one saw it coming and it’s turned the tide of how we look at the 2009 season.

The Phillies sign Gary Majewski to a minor league deal.

Apparently Adam Eaton doesn’t suffice? The Philadelphia Phillies, who have a well-stocked bullpen after re-signing Scott Eyre and adding Rule 5 draftee Robert Mosebach to the mix, are apparently antsy to add another one of the worst pitchers in baseball to their already-elderly minor league system.

Majewski hasn’t been anything but the worst pitcher in baseball for the last two and a half seasons, so what the Phillies are hoping shows up in Clearwater next year is a complete mystery. Excluding errors, 79 of 192 batters who faced Majewski in 2008 reached base for an OBP against of .412. Similarly, in 2007, 49 of 113 batters faced Majewski reached base (.434). In 2006, it was a mere .364 for the combined season, but after he was acquired by the Reds, he became the proverbial gasoline on the fire and the fire itself, sporting a modest WHIP of 2.27.

Taking a look at sabermetric numbers makes it seem like Majewski might be salvageable, since his BABIP in the last three years has been .323, .422, and .391. That said, there are essentially three reasons BABIP can be high – random chance (e.g., bad luck), poor fielders who just don’t get to balls, and a pitcher being hit really hard. I’m laying heavy odds that it’s the third category at issue for Majewski, partly because the BABIP against him should be low since he allowed 6 home runs (which, of course, are not “in play” as far as BABIP is concerned).

Majewski was part of the inaugural USA team for the World Baseball Classic. Let me be the first to suggest he’s not getting invited this year.

The second signing – nearly as baffling.

The Nationals sign Corey Patterson and Jorge Sosa to minor league deals.

It’s official. The two worst GMs in baseball are Ruben Amaro Jr. and Jim Bowden. It’s taken Amaro mere weeks to crack this list, it’ll take a Raul Ibanez MVP year to get him off it (unfortunately, if you should only get your news from this blog, you don’t know the Phillies signed Raul Ibanez – well, they did. It was bad. We’ll get to that in a few days.) It should only take Stan Kasten coming to his senses to remove Bowden from the list and the employment rolls.

Corey Patterson is the ultimate Dusty Baker player – he doesn’t clog the bases, because he never gets on the bases, and he steals bases with reckless abandon (in 2008, the emphasis was on reckless, he got caught stealing 9 times in 23 attempts). The fact that he didn’t even last under Dusty Baker should really tell you plenty. He doesn’t work counts, he doesn’t draw walks, he’s a terrible leadoff hitter, but he hits for some power, flashes tremendous tools, and is good defensively. Since the Nationals already have Ryan Langerhans, in other words, he is completely and utterly useless. But he’s got a contract for $800K waiting for him if he should somehow make the Nationals’ major league club. The good news for the Nationals is that he shouldn’t have much of a shot to do that with big contracts (Wily Mo Pena for $4 million, Austin Kearns for $8 million), acceptable talent (Lastings Milledge, Josh Willingham, and Elijah Dukes), and utility players (Willie Harris) blocking the path. The bad news is that if those things were enough to ward him off, they should have already done so.

Patterson was tremendously terrible last year, posting a .238 ON BASE PERCENTAGE. This number would rank below such luminaries of batting as Bronson Arroyo (.246 OBP), Seth McClung (.263), Aaron Cook (.258), Manny Parra (.255), Tim Redding (.250), and Jason Marquis (.242). In case you were unaware, Mr. Bowden, Jason Marquis is available and you just non-tendered Tim Redding, who offered superior offensive output to Corey Patterson.

The other minor league deal went to living proof of a Leo Mazzone effect – Jorge Sosa – who has had one good major league season. That season was 2005, the only year he was in the Braves organization simultaneously with Leo Mazzone. The next year, Mazzone left for the Orioles, and with him went Sosa’s ability to pitch. Sosa doesn’t have strikeout stuff, doesn’t have great control, but is really just erratic. In 2007, he walked 41 batters in 112 innings; in 2008, he walked 11 in 21. His strikeouts have been in steady decline since 2004, so he’s not likely to be a back-end contributor to the bullpen, but he may figure in the 5th starter competition or in the “who is this year’s Jesus Colome” reality show that will be spring training in Brevard County.

One other minor deal was transacted today, with Mark Teixeira signing with the New York Yankees for a mere 8 years and $180 million.

This one’s not hard to explain. The Yankees have money, they have no real first baseman, and they had an opportunity to take something away from the Red Sox.

Teixeira, I think, is a pretty overrated signing for the amount of money that we’re talking in this deal. He’s still young, but he sacrificed much of his value by moving to first to vacate third base for Hank Blalock a few years ago. He’s an excellent fielder at first base and he’s an excellent hitter, so I’m not criticizing Teixeira, just noting that he’s not really a savior to a franchise (which is why this deal is a huge benefit to the Orioles and Nationals).

Aside from the obvious stats that jump out at you, Tex offers two big upsides – patience and durability. He draws a lot of walks and is becoming more patient at the plate as he’s developed and he has never missed much time with injuries (and had played in 507 straight games until straining a hamstring in 2007). He’s primarily a fly ball hitter, but it’s hard to tell how that will fly in New Yankee Stadium Redux. I’m sure it will not be a major difficulty.

Dave Cameron projects that Teixeira will likely mean an extra 4 wins for the Yankees every season. I think the vital factor isn’t that he means extra wins for the Yankees as much as he means fewer wins for the Red Sox, who will have to hope that David Ortiz can once again become a 1.000+ OPS hitter. Maybe Eric Gagne left some vials behind, because lord knows there’s nothing the least bit suspicious about David Ortiz’s emergence.

I’m not among those who thinks the Teixeira signing makes the Yankees the favorites in the AL East. They still have a profoundly pedestrian outfield and DH – I’d rank Damon/Matsui/Cabrera/Nady among the middle of the pack in outfields – closer to Sizemore/Choo/Francisco/Dellucci than Mantle & Maris, a gaping hole at catcher on days that Posada is out (which may be every day, for all we know), a bullpen with only two components (Marte and Rivera), no minor league talent on the verge of contributing in the event of an injury, aging players like Posada and Rivera who are on their last legs, a woefully deficient defense up the middle in the infield (Jeter can’t make plays to his right, Cano can’t make plays on the baseball diamond), and they’re relying on A.J. Burnett to make all of his starts. They’ll be good. But they’re not exactly shoo-ins.

Nothing has changed in the 8 years of not winning the World Series. Rooting for the Yankees is still like rooting for a terminal illness – it’s never in doubt that they’re going to win, it’s just a matter of how long the baseball collective can stave it off.

Projected Yankees’ lineup:
LF Damon
SS Jeter
1B Texeira
3B Rodriguez
DH Matsui
C Posada
RF Nady
2B Cano
CF Cabrera

Getting Caught Up: AL East Moves

2008-12-22T18:43:00.000-08:00

AL East moves:
C.C. Sabathia signs a 7 year, $161 million contract with the dreaded New York Yankees
Well, all Sabathia's talk of wanting to play on the West Coast and wanting to play in the National League led to him signing with the Yankees, who don't even want their pitchers batting in Interleague games.

There's not much to say, if there's a pitcher worthy of a 7-year contract, it's Sabathia, who has proven himself to be the best pitcher in all of baseball over the last two seasons. Sabathia would have been a shoo-in for the National League Cy Young Award if he'd managed to get the season to be a month longer, dominating the league even when pitching on three days rest. He has weight issues, but has managed to pitch well even at 300 pounds.

Sabathia has never had a major injury -- the longest he's been sidelined was a few weeks with a strained oblique. Sabathia's biggest deficiency is that he's not a strikeout an inning pitcher (at least he wasn't until 2008). He also has some concerns arising from the pitcher abuse points he's piled up in the last two years.

The problem for the Yankees is that they didn't really secure a 7-year contract, they have a contract where Sabathia can opt out after three years, holding the Yankees hostage for more money. So although Sabathia is the kind of pitcher who seems likely to be worth the 7-year deal, the way the deal is structured means there's no real way the Yankees can win on this deal, short of winning the next three World Serii.

A.J. Burnett signs a 5 year, $82.5 million deal with the New York Yankees
For all the buzz the Sabathia deal got, the Burnett deal is way underhyped as being one of the dumbest investments ever made by anyone ever. For whatever deficiencies pets.com and Enron had, at least there was an opportunity to believe those items could someday be worth the money they're
offered.

Burnett, on the other hand, should be facing grand larceny charges in the New York Supreme Court shortly.

It's not that he's not a good pitcher. By all accounts, A.J. Burnett is a good pitcher. But "good" isn't worth $17 million a year on this market, particularly when "good" is followed the by the asterisk that Burnett has, which is that he's had three seasons over 200 innings in 7 full years in the majors. Every time he's done it, he then follows with two injury-plagued years, and then woo! -- contract year -- stays healthy, throws 200 innings, and signs a new deal. The real bad news for the Yankees is that he's coming off his 220+ inning season.

For a team like the Yankees, Burnett doesn't make sense. The reason they needed pitching is because their young pitchers haven't shown the ability to pitch well in the majors on a regular basis and the other pitchers suffered a spate of injuries. So they add an aging (32 as of opening day) starter who has never managed to stay healthy for long. Sure, he makes the rotation look good on paper, but that's where most of his accomplishments will be.

If you want to see what the Yankees have acquired, I think the baseball-reference comparables are spot on here, though they really should mention Carl Pavano just as a reminder to Yankees fans. Juan Guzman -- lasted 9 years in the majors, missed large chunks of several seasons with injuries and was finished at 34. (Sounds like Burnett to me). Ben Sheets -- good pitcher, strikes out batters, gets himself out of games with injuries -- will be signed for way less than 5 years and $82.5 million, probably around an $11-12 million per year pitcher this offseason -- on a one or two year deal. (Sounds like Burnett to me.) Ben McDonald -- pitcher with
tremendous stuff that never really achieved up to his stuff. Lasted 8 seasons in the majors, then retired after an injury. (Sounds like Burnett to me.) #4 is intriguing -- Randy Wolf. He doesn't have the strikeout potency of A.J. Burnett, and you have to be concerned about anyone who put up a 4.74 ERA pitching for the Padres, but he seems like another candidate for "much safer risk" for the Yankees and at a considerably smaller contract. Plus, he knows the subway system and has lost loves to rediscover. Most similar by age for A.J. Burnett right now is Pete Harnisch, who went on to have two more good seasons and then have his career basically finished.

I suppose it's possible that Burnett stays healthy for the duration of his five year deal. But coming off Jaret Wright, Carl Pavano, and all the rest that forced the Yankees to trot a rotation of Darrell Rasners and Ian Kennedys to the mound in recent years, I'd have thought the Yankees would have focused their dollars on someone who might actually produce for most of their contract. Instead, they're out a first round pick (which is where their willingness to spend limitless amounts of money SHOULD be helping them build a non-terrible farm system, but has not) and have landed a player who might win 60 games for the Yankees during the span of his contract.

Yankees projected rotation after these moves:
LHP Sabathia
RHP Wang
RHP Burnett
RHP Chamberlain
RHP Hughes

Matt Clement signs a minor league contract with the Toronto Blue Jays

This deal makes sense if Matt Clement isn't really interested in having much competition for the rotation, because injuries to Dustin McGowan and Shaun Marcum that have depleted what could have been an excellent rotation. But at the same time, it's not a major league contract and it's for a team that's very unlikely to contend because of the aforementioned pitching injuries. So my best guess is that Clement wants to get traded in July to a contender.

Clement was ineffective in 2006 before he went down for 1 1/2 seasons, but has the potential to be a strikeout an inning pitcher if he's right. There's no evidence he can put up those kind of numbers in the American League, though, so I wouldn't hold my breath. The Blue Jays should be happy if he can put up about 170 innings and win a dozen games.

Projected Blue Jays' Rotation:
RHP Halladay
RHP McGowan?
LHP Purcey
RHP Litsch
RHP Clement

The Tampa Bay Rays trade RHP Edwin Jackson to the Detroit Tigers for Matt Joyce
Well, this may put an end to rumors of the Rays pursuing major free agents like Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, or even Jason Giambi. The Rays have acquired their outfielder, and his name is Matt Joyce. While it's not impossible that the Rays could still pony up the money to add a name, the Jackson move seems more like a move made out of necessity than one they simply couldn't pass up because of the value added in return.

The move seems questionable, unless the Rays are really confident Joyce will turn into more than a AAAA platoon piece. That said, they're giving up a player who had absolutely no value before last season and they turned him into a 15-20 home run platoon outfielder who is two years from arbitration. From a financial standpoint, it's an exemplary trade. At the same time, it seems to point out how improbable a return Series run would be for the Rays. They can't afford to take chances on marginally expensive players like Edwin Jackson and are forced to effectively slot more maybe guys into their right field revolving door.

Right now, the roster doesn't have a hitter who's logical to pair with Joyce in a platoon in right field, so perhaps the Rays will give him an opportunity to hit against lefties, but the Tigers were deathly afraid of it apparently (25 AB against left-handers in 242 AB). The best guess to platoon would be Ben Zobrist (.269/.356/.449 against lefties in 78 AB) or maybe Fernando Perez, but neither of those players offers any real power potential, so there'd still be a significant hole in the lineup.

Joyce is a solid enough defensive outfielder that he'd be likely to displace Gabe Gross (who's the presumptive DH if the season began tomorrow -- again, this Rays team will not be returning to the World Series in 2009), but is not going to have the range of a Fernando Perez.

Projected Rays Lineup:
2B Iwamura
LF Crawford
CF Upton
3B Longoria
1B Pena
RF Joyce/Zobrist
C Navarro
DH Gross
SS Bartlett

The Baltimore Orioles sign SS Cesar Izturis
The Orioles cycled through a number of ineffective defense-first shortstops last year but apparently want to stop the cycle by paying one defense-first no-hit shortstop enough to pre-empt other players.

Izturis had a bad offensive season in 2008, but it was one that showed tremendous consistency with his prior ineffectiveness as an offensive player (.628 OPS in 2008, .629 career OPS). Apparently the Orioles see him as a safer bet than the lousy offensive shortstops they trotted out in 2008 -- Alex Cintron (.682 OPS), Brandon Fahey (.601 OPS), and Freddie Bynum (.444 OPS). Personally, I'd have had higher hopes for Cintron than Izturis, but Izturis is a defensive upgrade and Cintron is now 5 seasons removed from the .848 OPS season he mustered for the DBacks in 2003.

Izturis is a weak hitter, which explains his consistently below-par BABIP -- in his 8 major league seasons, only once has he had a BABIP above league average. There's an easy answer why -- he doesn't hit the ball hard. The isolated power number shows it, the high percentage of ground balls doesn't help, and his lack of plate patience seals the deal, because he won't wait out for a pitch he can drive.

I'm sure it appears like an upgrade to the average Orioles fan, who has at least heard of Izturis from stints with more successful teams. But even on paper, it's a pretty lateral move unless the Orioles have a platoon in mind that would free Izturis to only play against left-handed pitchers (against whom he hit well in 2008 (.308/.356/.366) -- though that's an aberration)

The Baltimore Orioles trade C Ramon Hernandez to the Reds for OF Ryan Freel, IF Justin Waring and IF Brandon Turner

The Orioles acquired a versatile player that doesn't seem to fill any of their needs in Ryan Freel and acquired two middling minor league infield prospects who could someday develop into something. In exchange, they got rid of a player they had no interest in keeping and a couple million dollars.

Freel is a relatively useful player. He can hit for a decent average at times and he runs well, but he's always going to be more valuable as a fill-in player than as an everyday player. He also has a great motor and goes all-out, but this leads to him spending more time on the disabled list than on the field, and he hasn't shown good judgment in stealing bases in the last few years. He had shown a good eye at the plate in the past, but that fell apart in 2007 and was underwhelming for the small part of 2008 for which Freel was healthy.

Freel's limitation for the Orioles is that he doesn't fill a need at all. They're supplied at second base and third base. They have Adam Jones in center field. What the team needs more than anything is a first baseman or DH to add some potency to their lineup. Freel isn't worth being in the lineup as a DH, is weaker than Adam Jones in center field, and isn't probably an everyday leadoff guy that would move Roberts down in the order to be more of a run producer. That likely means Freel will spend the majority of his time either as a utility player or else play in left field in lieu of Luke Scott, who would then be the DH.

Turner and Waring are borderline major leaguers at best. I went into more depth in my last post.

Projected Orioles Lineup (Yes, I've rethought this):
2B Roberts
3B Mora
RF Markakis
1B Huff
DH Scott
CF Jones
C Wieters
LF Freel
SS Izturis

Trades and free agents; K-Rod; Vazquez; Blake; Hernandez; Freel

2008-12-09T20:53:00.000-08:00

NY Mets sign Francisco Rodriguez
The Mets signed "K-Rod" to a 3 year, $37 million deal that will, in my estimation, cause them serious regrets by no later than September 2009. This is a very bad contract to hand to a player whose velocity was dropping in 2008, even if he did save 62 games. Keep in mind also that Rodriguez had very few tough saves and didn't fare all that well in converting saves (he blew 7 save opportunities in '08), and that although he's never made a trip to the disabled list before...that and his drop in velocity could just mean he's due for a visit to the elbow surgeon. He costs the Mets loads of money and a first-round pick, though Fuentes would have cost them the first rounder as well.

Most concerning is Rodriguez's decline in strikeout rate. In 2008, his strikeout rate has decreased from 1.34 K/IP in 2006 and 2007 to 1.13 K/IP in 2008. That's a huge dropoff to have in one season, and it's a rate that can be matched by more garden variety closers (last year's free agent suspension of disbelief Francisco Cordero, for instance, mustered 1.11 K/IP in 2008), not just the Brad Lidges of the world. Moreover, he is wild, walking 1/2 a batter per inning pitched (which does put him in Brad Lidge territory -- which in this case, is a bad thing).

The Mets didn't have any heirs apparent to fill the role, but there are a lot of red flags to indicate that Rodriguez is not worth such a substantial investment.

Cincinnati Reds trade Ryan Freel, Justin Turner, and Brandon Waring to the Baltimore Orioles for Ramon Hernandez and more than $1 million.

Dusty Baker has long had the reputation for loving old players. He's got one more now. Ramon Hernandez's contract was a disaster for the Orioles and the Orioles' most promising player is a catcher. So they shipped him off to a team that has a promising young catcher of their own in Ryan Hanigan (though not on par with Wieters, by any means). Hernandez has some power and at least among the Reds is mistaken for being a handler of pitchers (because of his time with Zito, Mulder, and Hudson -- apparently not for the 5.13 ERA the Orioles pitchers mustered in 2008). Unfortunately, he didn't offer much at all since signing with the Orioles and is two seasons removed from warranting any meaningful playing time because of his offense. He will make Dusty Baker happy because he won't clog the bases by drawing pesky walks, but it's a sad day in Cincinnati that he has almost certainly become the default starting option for the Reds over Hanigan, who looked phenomenal during a September cameo in 2008.

Ryan Freel is a player whose play is often called gritty, high-character and clutch solely because he's a white guy -- oh, and he steals bases. He is a relatively useful player at a number of positions, unfortunately for the Orioles, all of those are positions they've essentially filled. He's played extensively in right field, center field (not a good fit for him), second base, and third base (not ideal, though I think he's underrated as a defensive third baseman). He makes a lot of plays that others wouldn't, but it comes at the expense of missing some plays the average player would make. He is a player who literally runs into walls, but he gets injured a lot. The last couple of years, he's shown very poor baserunning instincts, being caught 12 times in 33 steal attempts, and couldn't put anything together at the plate in 2007. 2008 led to him being cast as a center fielder, he didn't stay healthy long, playing in only 48 games. My guess is that Freel will get to spend some time in center field, which could give the Orioles an opportunity to have a speedy leadoff batter but move Roberts into a better run producing spot. If Aubrey Huff will play first, it gives them a lot more potent lineup as well, fitting an extra major league hitter into the fold.

Brandon Waring is a third base prospect with monumental power -- 20 home runs in 68 games in rookie ball in 2007, 20 home runs in a full season at low-A Dayton this year and is likely to have to move from third base because of marginal athleticism. But he strikes out. A lot. 156 strikeouts in 441 at bats marked his run in low A ball, and he offered only 43 walks in comparison, so it wasn't necessarily because he's a patient hitter. He seems to have a similar skill set to the third base prospect the Orioles acquired this time last year -- Mike Costanzo, who offered a profoundly underwhelming season at AAA Norfolk, so perhaps the Orioles are moving on.

Justin Turner is a middle infielder whose high-end projection puts him as a borderline everyday second baseman. He produced a solid season for the Reds' minor league system, slugging 8 home runs in his stint in AA Charleston and putting together a .792 OPS, even though he's regarded as a prospect with no real slugging potential. He makes pretty good contact (.316 average at A, .279 at AA), but doesn't make enough of it (73 strikeouts in 416 at bats).

Orioles projected lineup as of this move:
CF Freel
2B Roberts
RF Markakis
1B Huff*
3B Mora
DH Scott/Montanez
LF Jones
C Wieters*
SS Salazar*

Reds projected lineup as of this move:
LF Dickerson
CF Hopper*
2B Phillips
RF Bruce
1B Votto
3B Encarnacion
C Hernandez/Hanigan
SS Gonzalez/Keppinger
P Harang/Volquez/Arroyo/Cueto/Owings/Maloney/Thompson/Bailey

Chicago White Sox trade Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan to the Atlanta Braves for Brent Lillibridge, Tyler Flowers, Jon Gilmore, and Santos Rodriguez

The White Sox traded a moderately effective starter and a reliever with an odd arm slot for four minor leaguers, one of whom has already underwhelmed at the major league level, one of whom projects to have to move to a new position (DH), and two who are virtually impossible to project because of inexperience.

Javier Vazquez has been only a marginally effective starting pitcher since leaving the Montreal Expos after the 2003 season. He's compiled only one season in that span with an ERA under 4.00, which was also his only season with an ERA+ of better than 100. He is what has now become known as an innings-eater, someone who, despite not being particularly effective, gets to pitch 200 innings and finish with numbers that show a lengthy run of mediocrity ahead. Even the unreliable won-loss record speaks volumes for Vazquez, who has compiled a 63-61 record since 2003 despite pitching on the 2004 Yankees (who won 101 games). Vazquez hasn't experienced a dropoff in strikeouts (where he's still among the league's best starting pitchers), which is a good sign, but in 2008, hits, walks, and, of course, WHIP spiked and home runs allowed stayed at a predictable career median of 25. In a more pitcher-friendly park and the National League, it's quite possible that Vazquez could have a good year, but he's not going to prove to be an ace for the Braves.

Boone Logan is a left-handed pitcher who relies upon deception to get batters out, because of his three-quarters arm slot. Bad news, Boone. It's not working. Against left-handers, he allowed 30 hits and 5 walks in 25 2/3 innings pitched. Not good numbers, leading to a .291 BAA. Against right-handers, they might has well have intentionally walked them -- BAA of .351, 27 hits and 9 walks in 16 2/3 innings, which gives him a WHIP of 2.16 against right-handers. Oh, and he gives up home runs 7 in 42 1/3 innings pitched. That said, he throws left-handed, which on the Braves should guarantee him a spot in the bullpen -- as is, at most he'll have to compete with Eric O'Flaherty, who was so bad the Mariners let him go after 2008.

In exchange, the Braves offered once-promising Brent Lillibridge, the prospect at the core of the Adam LaRoche trade that seems to have hurt both the Braves and the Pirates (though the Braves at least got Mike Gonzalez, they had to suffer through the Scott Thorman half-year before trading their future for Mark Teixeira). Lillibridge did nothing to earn the confidence of the Braves' brass in 2008, sputtering horribly at the major league level and playing even worse at AAA (.220/.294/.344). He's a solid defensive shortstop and may be able to steal a few bases (23 in AAA in 30 attempts), but is probably never going to be projected as a starter after the relapse in 2008. He's now plugged behind Alexei Ramirez in the White Sox's plans.

The most respected player in the deal for the White Sox is catcher/first baseman Tyler Flowers, who is weak defensively behind the plate and projects elsewhere, but can crush the ball -- 17 home runs at Myrtle Beach in the homer-cursed Carolina League (in comparison, the Wilmington Blue Rocks hit 61 home runs for the SEASON). Flowers really made his name in the Arizona Fall League where he hit 12 home runs in 75 at bats and posted a modest OPS of 1.433. He tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs when he first entered professional baseball, so he'll be watched closely as he progresses through the White Sox system, but he may be the replacement for Jim Thome in 2010 (assuming the Sox don't trade Thome this season). The bad news is that upon hearing about the trade, he relished the idea of playing DH.

Santos Rodriguez has only 26 games of professional experience but has shown the ability to strike out hitters (45 Ks in 29 IP in 2008 at the Gulf Coast League). He has little control at this point (13 BB in 2008), but is also only 20 years old.

Jon Gilmore is a 20-year-old third base prospect who figured in the lower-echelons of prospects for the Braves last year because of his projected power. After two seasons, it remains projected, with Gilmore notching only 4 home runs in 360 at bats split between rookie and low A ball in 2008. He was a first round sandwich pick for the Braves in 2007 out of high school, but hasn't shown much in the way of polish in his early going (.291/.313/.379 career thus far).

St. Louis Cardinals trade relief pitcher Mark Worrell and a PTBNL to the San Diego Padres for Khalil Greene
The Padres are in full on fire sale mode here. Although they don't have a shortstop in their organization (perhaps they should have drafted one #1 overall a few years ago, as opposed to Matt Bush...who is now a pitcher), they dealt Khalil Greene, who was unjustifiably expensive after a disastrous 2008. All the Cardinals gave up was an aging relief pitching prospect who relies on a submarine motion to retire batters and fared poorly at the Major League level in extremely limited activity.

The Cardinals aren't guaranteed a win on this deal, Khalil Greene has been overrated from day one, but thus far the Cardinals dealt a player who was unhappy with their organization (Mark Worrell) and in whom they apparently didn't have much confidence, having removed him from the closer role in the minors on numerous occasions. They only gave him a brief stint in 2008 in the Majors and moved him quickly, so his griping about the organization may not be entirely baseless. Worrell had a substantial jump in his walk rate in his repeat run through AAA, though he continued to hone his ability to punch out hitters (80 K in 58 2/3 IP) and improved his ERA by nearly a run. He's 25, so he's nearing the point where he needs to stick in the majors, but he should get that opportunity in San Diego, where Heath Bell, Cla Meredith, Mike Adams, and Justin Hampson are going to have to fill the void of Trevor Hoffman.

So the upside for the Cardinals is that they have a shortstop who should hit at least 15 home runs and probably more since he's rescued from Petco Park. The downside is that the shortstop who hits those 15 home runs will be Khalil Greene, who's seen plenty of pitches he didn't like, but few at which he wouldn't swing. If you're a player who hits 27 home runs and you finish with an OPS+ of 100...you are not a good player. And that was Greene in one of his peak years (2007). Yes, his batting average should improve outside of Petco, where he was an abomination (.225/.289/.369 career), but he's still a +40 OBP kind of guy (meaning his OBP will only be about 40 points higher than his average -- only the truly impatient players (Pedro Feliz, anyone?) in the game reach this kind of infamy. And if you know you're hitting .215...why are you swinging?

Greene is an above-average defensive shortstop, he'll be a better lineup presence than Cesar Izturis was, if only because he might hit for some power, but he's a number 7/8 (and in LaRussa's sick world, 9) hitter. Expecting anything more than that is folly.

Verdict: The Cardinals could certainly do better, I have little confidence in Khalil Greene. But the jury's out until that player to be named has been identified.

Cardinals projected lineup right now:
LF Schumacker
CF Ankiel
1B Pujols
RF Ludwick
3B Glaus
C Molina
SS Greene
P Wainwright/Lohse/Wellemeyer/Pineiro/Carpenter
2B Miles/Ryan*

Detroit Tigers trade two minor leaguers to the Texas Rangers for Gerald Laird
Gerald Laird had been getting mentioned in trades for years now, it was inevitable that he would get moved at some point. The Tigers needed catching badly and were willing to overpay for a very middling catcher, clearly the least intriguing of the four the Rangers had to offer, albeit one of only two who project as good defensive catchers (the other being Taylor Teagarden). Laird had a decent enough season for a catcher offensively in 2008, but is one year removed from a sub-.290 OBP season -- one of two in his very brief major league career (in only four seasons with more than 130 AB). Those numbers also came in a park that turns hitters into juggernauts, as opposed to the park he's headed to, which will be considerably less friendly to his gap power.

In order to get Gerald Laird, the Tigers had to surrender two minor league pitching prospects. That's astonishing, considering that 1) the Rangers were in a bind as far as moving at least one catcher in a trade, 2) Gerald Laird isn't very good, and 3) the Tigers are not in any position to contend. The Tigers dealt right-handed pitcher Guillermo Moscoso and 17-year-old prospect Carlos Melo in order to land Laird. Melo apparently has electric stuff for a 17-year-old, but he is 17, so he's nearly impossible to project. Moscoso is similarly hard to get a read on, largely because he's never stayed healthy long enough to make an impact (he didn't show up in the prospect poor Tigers' top 30 prospects in 2008). He pitched only 86 2/3 innings in 2008, which was only 4 innings off his professional career high. But he has been superb when he has been on the mound, compiling a 2.80 career ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and more than a strikeout an inning in his trips through R/A/AA, while walking only about 2.25 batters per nine innings pitched.

Verdict: the Rangers win, because they had nothing to lose in dealing Laird.

Los Angeles Dodgers sign free agent third baseman Casey Blake for 3 years, $17.5 million
The Indians and Twins left this bidding pretty early, so the Dodgers were basically bidding against themselves. Blake benefited from a very weak market at third base.

He's a serviceable third baseman, he makes most of the plays he should, he won't make many beyond that. From what I've seen of him (a fair amount), he strikes me as a profoundly average defender. His range factor/9 for his career is 2.69 compared to a league average of 2.65. His zone rating of .768 isn't great, but it's not awful -- nor even the worst in the division (.751 for Mark Reynolds, .787 for Garret Atkins, .768 for Kevin Kouzmanoff).

Signing Blake makes some sense for the Dodgers, but since they had Blake DeWitt already, there may have been greater value in pursuing a second baseman instead. The real winner here is Casey Blake's agent, who deserves a lot of credit for getting a three year deal for an aging player that's basically league average.

Dodgers projected lineup right now:
LF Pierre
CF Kemp
C Martin
RF Ethier
1B Loney
3B Blake
2B DeWitt
SS Hu*
P Billingsley/Kuroda/Kershaw/McDonald/Schmidt*

*The asterisks denote places where I believe a move will yet be made -- based on the position, not the player. For instance, 1B Aubrey Huff* for the Orioles gets an asterisk not because I expect Huff will be traded, but because I think the Orioles will acquire a first baseman and Huff will play DH.

Free agent moves: Renteria, Howry, Branyan, Everett...seriously

2008-12-08T19:04:00.000-08:00

Giants signed Edgar Renteria to a 2 year, $18.5 million deal
The Giants signed Edgar Renteria, continuing to build Brian Sabean's bridge to the past. Next week, I'm laying even odds that the Giants sign John McCain -- though in defense of that move, McCain would probably be a more adequate offensive first baseman than Travis Ishikawa and all indications are that McCain can be bought for considerably less than Edgar Renteria. Zing.

Renteria is a serviceable player who has rarely been more than that and regressed defensively to be considerably below average in 2008. Renteria's not going to add signicant home run pop to the lineup, but adds another Aaron Roward, Fred Lewis 15-20 home-run ceiling guy to the lineup. He's likely to be an offensive upgrade from Emmanuel Burriss, sure, but he's not worth the alarming price they paid for a shortstop that no one seemed too gung ho on adding. Renteria is and almost always has been a league average guy. Since he plays shortstop, league average isn't a bad thing, but he adds only marginally more than a Mark Grudzialanek (if any). Renteria has fared better in the National League, but don't get confused into thinking 2007 shows what he'll do, 2007 showed only what BABIP can do when all luck breaks in someone's favor, because Renteria's was nearly .400 in 2007. When it returned to league average in 2008, so did he.

Renteria's speed has decayed as well, limiting him to 6 steals in 2008, and his extra base potential was negligible, mustering only 22 doubles and 2 triples in cavernous Comerica (National) Park. So despite the Giants having a dearth of power (Bengie Molina led the team with 16 home runs last year, the team mustered a whopping .382 SLG), it's not clear that Renteria is going to add much there. Certainly $9.25 million a year could have bought more on this market -- rather than a guy who slugged the same as Nick Punto, but with a considerably lower OBP and worse glove. Punto (.284/.344/.382) and Grudzialanek (.299/.345/.399) could probably have both been had for $9.25 million, and even if Renteria's 2008 was an aberration, it's unlikely it was much of one.

Giants sign Bobby Howry to a 1 year, $2.75 million contract
The Giants signed Bobby Howry, a move that helps add unnecessary age to the Giants' roster, but adds a potentially serviceable right-handed reliever. At 2.75 million, he's a reasonable gamble, but it's hard to see him being a great pitcher in 2008. Howry is 35 now, and has been worked hard over his last few seasons (73, 76 2/3, 81 1/3, 70 2/3) for a reliever. Howry hasn't seen an uptick in his walk rate that would presage decline, but his strikeouts were down in 2008 after being up in 2006 and 2007. And a 1.46 WHIP and 90 hits in 70 2/3 innings don't encourage anyone except opposing hitters.

Atlanta signs C David Ross to a two-year, $3 million contract
Huh? $3 million for a backup catcher to Brian McCann? 2 years to David Ross? Frank Wren has lost his mind. If you want to find out how John Schuerholz got so much from the Braves for so long, it was by avoiding throwing real money at the players who were there to not play. His heir apparent hasn't learned this. Instead of going with Clint Sammons, Brayan Pena, or any of the other backup catchers that have dotted a 40-man roster in recent years, the Braves sign a catcher to a $3 million deal when it's not certain he could have gotten a major league contract elsewhere. He lost his job in Cincinnati to Paul Bako and Javier Valentin in the last two years. Moreover, Ross has enough power that he might be a useful pinch hitter -- but you can't use him as a pinch hitter unless you're carrying three catchers.

I'm of the opinion that backup catcher is one of the places where a low-budget team can and should cut costs. (I originally typed that as costes...which I think is a Freudian slip, since I think another great option for the Braves is to wait until March and pick up Chris Coste after the Phillies cut him loose to make room for Lou Marson.) David Ross is a waste of money for a team that's a long way from filling all their holes. Billy Traber signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox for considerably less, and would have filled a far greater need for the Braves -- someone who might be able to pitch.

Seattle Mariners sign Russell Branyan to a one year, $1.4 million contract
The Mariners first move in the offseason was to sign Russell Branyan. No need to print those playoff tickets now, Mariners fans. Branyan is king of the small sample size -- he can make for one pretty stat sheet so long as he doesn't face right-handed pitchers, so long as you don't look at defensive statistics and so long as you don't give random chance an opportunity to start evening things out. He has prodigious power, he draws a good number of walks, and he strikes out nearly every other time he's at the plate. In 2000 career at bats, he's struck out 797 times. Branyan has had three years of below average BABIP, but he's also the kind of player you don't expect to fare well in BABIP because if he puts it in play (remember: BABIP excludes home runs), it's an out. He's a three true outcomes hitter -- home runs, walks, strikeouts.

Branyan will probably see a lot of time at 1B and DH for the Mariners, who are currently slated to fill those slots with Bryan LaHair and...oh lord. It's astonishing to think that Erik Bedard was on the Mariners' radar a year ago and they were supposed to contend for the AL West title. Look what a load of lousy free agent signings (Richie Sexson, Jarrod Washburn, Carlos Silva) and idiotic trades with the Cleveland Indians for platoon players (Asdrubal Cabrera for Eduardo Perez; Shin-Soo Choo for Ben Broussard) can do to an organization. Then subtract top-level prospects like Chris Tillman and Adam Jones and this team is stripped down to Ichiro, Adrian Beltre, and a middle infield that had a COMBINED +46 OBP. (Betancourt adding 21 points, Lopez a much more patient 25). To emphasize how awful that combined +46 OBP is...keep in mind, through no virtue of "patience", Chase Utley added 38 points to his OBP by being HIT WITH PITCHES. Lean in next year, Yuniesky/Jose.

Mariners projected lineup as of this move:
RF Suzuki
CF Reed
2B Lopez
3B Beltre
DH Branyan/Johjima (yeah, seriously)
LF Balantien
C Clement
1B LaHair
SS Betancourt

Detroit Tigers sign Adam Everett to a one year, $1 million deal
So much for the lineup of nine intimidating bats, the Tigers are now down to signing punchless defensive wizards to fill the holes in their lineup. Adam Everett will split time with Ramon Santiago at shortstop, neither of them will hit the ball. Everett can field (range factor about 1/2 a play per nine innings over league average for his career), but can't hit, hit for power, draw a whole lot of walks, or steal many bases. If Everett could summon his 2004 numbers (.273/.317/.385) and muster an OPS over .700, he might be worth playing even on a half-decent team. It's not likely to happen. Even on a defense-first team in Minnesota last year, they decided there was more to life than fielding grounders and he lost his job to the mighty Nick Punto/Brendan Harris combination that will some day be remembered alongside Honus Wagner as shortstops who did not appear on tobacco companies' baseball cards (Wagner because he insisted to be removed, Punto and Harris because tobacco sales are lagging enough as is).

Tigers projected lineup as of this move:
CF Granderson
2B Polanco
LF Guillen
RF Ordonez
1B Cabrera
DH Sheffield
C Laird
3B Inge
SS Everett

Boston Red Sox sign Junichi Tazawa
I don't know anything about Tazawa, I know that he's not major league ready, considering the contract he landed from the Red Sox. Japanese pitchers are spotty at best and tend to burn out quickly. Hideki Irabu, Hideo Nomo, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kasuhiro Sasaki, Tomo Ohka, Masahide Kobayashi, and Kei Igawa are all names that were supposed to be impacts, but aside from Daisuke (who is fine as a 6-inning pitcher, but hasn't done anything beyond that), the others had fleeting impacts and burned out quickly. He'll have a couple mentors in Matsuzaka and Hideki Okajima, but will not probably play a major role for this team this year.

Milwaukee Brewers sign Jorge Julio
Jorge Julio is a player that's never worth signing in November, but can prove useful if you're the second team in a season to end up with him. For three straight years, he's been ineffective with the team he began the year with (Mets, Marlins, Indians) and found himself released or traded to a new team (Diamondbacks, Rockies, Braves). Then he puts up better numbers with his new team and finds himself a free agent yet again. After six seasons of 60+ appearances, 2008 brought him a bad run with the Indians as a mop-up man who never found himself worthy of anything better and then sent him to the out-of-contention Braves where he dazzled with a 0.73 ERA without really earning it -- his WHIP (1.38) was nearly twice his ERA. Julio walks a ton of batters with a career rate of nearly .5 BB/IP that has increased as his career has continued. But he's only two seasons removed from a year where he struck out 88 batters in 67 IP, so it's not hard to see why teams keep considering him a minor option. For a team as bullpen-needy as the Brewers, it makes sense. He is another failed closer to dump into the closer-by-committee role that seems to be developing with Todd Coffey and David Riske as the "anchors" to the back end of the Brewers' pen.

Cleveland Indians sign Toma Ohka
If I weren't a Tribe fan, there's no way this would be worthy of mention. It still isn't. If he stays healthy, he could be a fifth starter. But that's a big if, and the Indians don't need a fifth starter, they already have a few in their rotation with Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers, and Zach Jackson. I refuse to provide any additional analysis, I regard Ohka making a major league appearance as astonishingly unlikely -- Scott Elarton may yet return.

I'm way behind on trades, so I hope to get to those tomorrow.

Astros sign Doug Brocail

2008-12-02T17:13:00.000-08:00

This is what passes for news. Brocail is going back for $2.5 million, even though he's coming off a surprisingly respectable season into a market where loads of teams with money need relief pitching. I'm assuming there's a personal factor here for Brocail, because you'd think that even in the NL the Mets would cough up enough money to make it worth considering. Last year actually marked a regression from 2007, where he put up a 3.05 ERA despite having a considerably lower strikeout rate. That number was likely influenced by BABIP and a large number of unearned runs (in 2007, 7 of the 33 runs he allowed were unearned).

In 2008, he fell off with a 3.93 ERA and a higher WHIP, but he still had a decent season and showed a spike in his strikeout rate (.93 K/IP as opposed to a career .71 K/IP before 2008).

All in all, it's a respectable enough signing that fills a need in the Astros' bullpen, but it's not going to be a difference-making move.

The Astros also signed Mike Hampton, pending a physical, yesterday, but I didn't bother to say anything about it. Why? Well, because saying that the Astros signed Mike Hampton pending a physical is kind of like saying the Indians have signed Trevor Hoffman, pending a contract offer being extended and agreed upon. Hampton is a good signing solely because he's cheap and if he pitches, he'll pitch better than Brandon Backe did in 2007. Since the Astros seem to have backed off signing Randy Wolf and declined to offer him arbitration, Hampton can theoretically fill that role if he can stay healthy.

Cardinals sign Trever Miller

2008-11-20T05:08:00.000-08:00

The St. Louis Cardinals signed left-handed reliever Trever Miller, recently of the AL Champion Tampa Bay Rays. The Cardinals were in the market for left-handed relief pitching, though given the disastrous performance of nearly all in the St. Louis bullpen, it's odd that they're focused so heavily on left-handers.

Miller was adequate for the Rays, with a 4.15 ERA in 2008, but is really a one-out pitcher, given his right-handed split (7.50 ERA, 20 H, 10 BB, 14 K in 18 IP against RHB). Against lefties, he allowed only 19 H and 10 BB in 25.1 IP, while also striking out 30.

This isn't a move that I think represents much of an upgrade for the Cardinals, but it's not likely to be a particularly expensive deal either. The present left-handed options were Tyler Johnson (decent in 2007, missed 2008 with rotator cuff surgery), Randy Flores (who walked more batters than he struck out in 2008 and compiled a BAA of .314 against lefties and .316 against right-handed batters), and Jaime Garcia, whose numbers are too incidental and small in size to warrant mention.

If Tyler Johnson can post his 2007 numbers again, I think he'll probably have a better season than Trever Miller. But for a manager who manages like Tony LaRussa and uses pitchers for as many 0 inning appearances or 1/3 inning appearances, I'm sure Miller appears to play a valuable role. I'd have pushed harder for a Dennys Reyes, though, who has a lot more positive upside (or even Alan Embree, who got hit last year, but has strung together a lot of good seasons. Miller is still a pitcher who's had two career seasons with a WHIP under this season's 1.36 (2004, 2006). If that's what he has to offer, the Cardinals might have done well to wait and sign Mike Lincoln.

Cardinals' bullpen:
CL Chris Perez
RHP Ryan Franklin
RHP Jason Motte
LHP Trever Miller
RHP Kyle McClellan
LHP Tyler Johnson

Crisp for Ramirez trade; what it means for Mark Teahen; Mike Mussina retires

2008-11-19T19:40:00.000-08:00

Deal: The Boston Red Sox trade Coco Crisp to the Kansas City Royals for right-handed relief pitcher Ramon Ramirez.

Analysis:
Seriously, Dayton Moore, i understand that with the death of Fire Joe Morgan, there's a lack of humor in all of our baseball-related lives. But that's no reason to keep making 99% of the baseball world laugh themselves to sleep, grateful that they're not Royals fans.

The Kansas City Royals made another trade, dealing another relief pitcher for another bat. Once again, the Royals traded a pitcher who may be at a value peak, but the return is nothing spectacular. Now there is talk that the Royals are in the market to acquire relief pitching, but their only trade pieces are the players that the first two trades have now made superflous, giving other teams little reason to pay much for them.

Crisp is a serviceable player, who will hit between .270-300 with an OBP between .320-.350. He has 15-20 home run potential and could probably steal 30 bases as an everyday player. But he's not a major offensive producer and regressed badly in Boston, where he mustered OPS+ of 77, 83, and 93 in his three seasons. But the Red Sox apparently regarded him as a luxury with the equally underwhelming, but more stolen base-prone Jacoby Ellsbury roaming in center field.

In exchange for Crisp, who will now likely lead off for the on-base and slugging-starved Royals, the Red Sox got Ramon Ramirez, a three-pitch reliever (fastball, changeup, slider) who has had two solid seasons in the majors and one disastrous one (2007), but has also been traded three times in his brief career. Ramirez fared well in 2006 and 2008, but his success in 2008 was due in no small part (as Dave Cameron notes on fangraphs) on an extremely low home run rate. Moving out of Kauffman Stadium, a pitcher-friendly venue even for the home team that's not pitching to the Royals, into Fenway Park will not help Ramirez on that count.

The Red Sox didn't get much in return for Crisp, who ended up being a substantial player for the 2008 squad because of Jacoby Ellsbury's impatience at the plate and late-season struggles, but they did get rid of a sizable contract for a part-time player and got someone who is at least going to be a replacement-level reliever that the Red Sox can use in lieu of a Mike Timlin. And yes, it means Justin Masterson might be able to make the move to the rotation, but as we've seen with Papelbon in 2007 and Clay Buchholz in 2008, things don't always go as planned in that rotation.

And I think the Red Sox got the better end of the deal, in any event. The Royals made a trade that's not bad, they got the better of the two players -- or at least the player who is a safer projection as the better of the two. But they also acquired a player who basically requires another move to be made. They have now added another outfielder to a mix that already had three guaranteed starters in Mark Teahen, David DeJesus, and Jose Guillen. Teahen's name has been in trade discussions and rumors -- with potential suitors being identified (falsely, apparently) as the Indians (who were, again, apparently falsely rumored to be willing to part with Ben Francisco, Franklin Gutierrez, or Trevor Crowe to get Teahen to play third) and the Cubs. But now, by acquiring a center fielder that will move DeJesus to left to suit the Royals' desires, they also put Mark Teahen on an obvious trade block. There's no room at DH, where the Royals already have a mess of players led by Billy Butler and, if Trey Hillman is an active observer of the game, Mike Jacobs -- a more woeful first baseman than the woeful Butler. They still have Ryan Shealy, Kiia Ka'ahuie, and theoretically Ross Gload.

They now basically have to move Mark Teahen in a trade or convince him to make another position change -- this time to second base, where he wouldn't be much worse defensively than the Royals' current leading option -- Esteban German. And there's little reason to believe he can bring back much in a trade when 1) other teams know he's worthless dead weight to the Royals and 2) he's not a particularly valuable player (91 OPS+ as a right fielder in 2008), he's really more of a poor man's Casey Blake because of the 1B/3B/RF position versatility -- a role that I think we can all agree is already filled by a readily-available free agent: Casey Blake.

Projected Royals' lineup:
LF DeJesus
SS Aviles
3B Gordon
RF Guillen
1B Jacobs
DH Butler
C Olivo/Buck
CF Crisp
2B German/Callaspo

Note: This presupposes that the Royals are observant enough to note that DeJesus' OBP warrants him being a leadoff batter. Deep down, I think we'll see Coco Crisp leading off and DeJesus dropping to third, plus a regression to the mean that will see Mike Aviles fall to 8th or 9th in the lineup. Keep in mind that Aviles' career minor league numbers fall well short in nearly every category of the numbers he posted in Kansas City last year.

In other news...
Mike Mussina has apparently decided to retire after his first 20-win season. Mussina had an impressive year in 2008, and even one that looked relatively sustainable, since so much of his success was attributable to a remarkable ability to avoid walks (31 BB in 200.1 IP), but it seems likely that the Yankees weren't counting on Mussina as a linchpin for their rotation.

Ryan Dempster re-signs with the Cubs

2008-11-18T19:49:00.000-08:00

Ryan Dempster has returned to the Chicago Cubs for 4 years and $52 million. Dempster is coming off a career year and then some, having gone 17-9 with a 2.96 ERA and 187 Ks in his first year back in the rotation after several years as an inconsistent closer.

Dempster is an enigma, he's had two good seasons as a starter, but has been mostly ineffective in his career. He seemed to resolve most of the control problems that had haunted him in Florida, but also didn't give up much in the way of hits.

Assuming Dempster is anything vaguely resembling the pitcher he was in 2008, the contract is pretty reasonable for the Cubs. There's a $4 million signing bonus, $8 million in 2009, $12.5 million in 2010, $13.5 million in 2011, and a player option in 2012 for $14 million. That's a big assumption, though, Dempster has never shown any real consistency.

As much as the press made of Dempster's effectiveness at home, his home/road splits are actually pretty similar, except for his record on the road (a pedestrian 3-3, despite a 3.13 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the road). Dempster's biggest weakness, besides control problems in the past, is his struggle with left-handed batters. (1.76 WHIP, .282 BAA career) Last year, however, he kept lefties in check to the tune of 1.29 WHIP, .243 BAA. He also managed to keep balls in the yard, finishing with the 8th best home run rate among qualifying pitchers. That said, it's likely unsustainable that he can maintain that rate, considering his career numbers and the fact that he's not really a heavy-sinker pitcher. His BABIP was just under league average, so it's unlikely that he's a complete fluke.

The $13 million he averages over the life of this deal is just a touch more than the Reds are paying Francisco Cordero, so if Dempster proves to drop off a bit and have to return to his old role as a closer who blows 5-6 saves a season, the Cubs are still in relatively good hands. And so long as he is anything like the pitcher they had last season, he's a solid investment who's already had his Tommy John surgery and is probably going to hold up for the life of his deal better than free agent alternatives like A.J. Burnett, who is expected to command more than this deal.

The Dempster deal really seems to make the Jake Peavy trade very unlikely, since the Cubs' rotation is pretty well set with a number of other options in the organization.

Projected Cubs rotation:
RHP Carlos Zambrano
RHP Ryan Dempster
RHP Rich Harden
LHP Ted Lilly
RHP Jason Marquis/RHP Sean Marshall/RHP Rich Hill (remember him?)

Affeldt signs with San Francisco

2008-11-17T18:18:00.000-08:00

The Giants have signed left-handed reliever Jeremy Affeldt to a 2-year deal

Affeldt was relatively effective with the Reds in 2008, although he failed in his quest to crack the Reds' rotation. Upon the signing last year, Wayne Krivsky said the Reds were hoping he'd be a starter, then Affeldt didn't seem to get much of a shot at starting and had an awful spring training (8 games, 4 starts, ERA of 10.69).

Affeldt's a bit of an enigma. In 2007, he was a hard man to get hits off of (BAA of .226, 47 hits in 59 IP), in 2008, he was much more pedestrian in that category (.260, 78 hits in 78.1 IP), but still dropped his WHIP by .05 by not throwing so many walks. He's had three good years in his entire career (one of which was as a starter in 2003), but he's timed the last two well.

So why could this be a good signing for the Giants? Affeldt's not just useful against left-handed batters. In fact, last season lefties hit .269 against him, righties mustered only a .255 average (although Affeldt has a tendency to walk right-handed batters -- 20 of them in 49.2 IP, none intentional). And most of all, Jeremy Affeldt hated pitching in Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park, to a tune of 4.64 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, .302 BAA in 42.2 IP. On the road, he pitched 35.2 innings, but put up a sparkling ERA of 1.77, 1.04 WHIP, and .203 BAA.

That said, Affeldt hasn't fared too well on the road in his prior trip through the NL West. In 2007, he was dominant at Coors Field (1.74 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, .160 BAA), but got lit up on the road (5.46, 1.71, .294). He also hasn't pitched well in AT&T Park (6.43 ERA), though the sample size of 7 innings is pretty meaningless.

What does the signing really mean for the Giants? Probably not much. To me, it means Alex Hinshaw may get a shot to unseat Brian Wilson as the Giants' closer (or at least split duties with him), leaving Affeldt and Jack Taschner as the "situational" lefties in the Giants' bullpen. Maybe Affelt is now a designated 8th-inning guy regardless of who is at the plate because of his relatively even splits and maybe it means Taschner gets sent to AAA, but I'd be kind of surprised if that move were on the horizon after 178 major league games for the Giants.

Projected Giants bullpen:
CL Brian Wilson
LHP Alex Hinshaw
RHP Sergio Romo
LHP Jeremy Affeldt
RHP Keiichi Yabu
RHP Billy Sadler
RHP Osiris Matos

AL West: offseason outlook

2008-11-13T18:29:00.000-08:00

AL West
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
The Angels didn't just win a lot of games by beating up on a lousy division, they fared just as well against the AL East and Central. But they never really added up to a team that was going to scare you. They've still got good pitching, but the offense is pretty middling for a team that's invested so heavily in free agents. The Angels have a number of meaningful free agents: Garret Anderson, Jon Garland, Darren Oliver, Juan Rivera, Francisco Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira.

Most likely to return: Darren Oliver has pitched pretty well since landing in Anaheim, re-signing him will be a priority for the Angels simply because they can afford him.

Most likely to leave:Jon Garland was a puzzling acquisition for the Angels last season and he didn't work out any better than they could have expected. The Angels don't figure to have much interest in re-signing him.

Non-tender candidates: Ryan Budde is a 29-year-old non-prospect third catcher. With Hank Conger in the upper minors, there's little chance Budde makes it past December. He'll be outrighted or non-tendered.

Prospect on the rise: Brandon Wood and Kendry Morales aren't really prospects anymore, since neither of them are rookies. Sean Rodriguez may figure as a middle infielder and Nick Adenhart may get another shot as a 5th starter, but it doesn't look like the Angels are promoting any major impact players onto their major league roster in 2009.

Needs: Relief pitching -- the Angels are on the verge of losing K-Rod, they have no real depth in their bullpen. Jose Arredondo may be a closer next year, Scot Shields and Justin Speier are back, but that's about it.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Kelvim Escobar missed all of 2008 with shoulder surgery, but was optimistic that he'd be able to return in 2009.

Free agent ceiling: The Angels are likely to be factors with every major free agent. They'll make a bid on Sabathia, Teixeira, and probably make some effort to resign Francisco Rodriguez after he discovers the market temperature.

Texas Rangers
The Rangers made a splash with a deal that I thought was a slam dunk for Jon Daniels, landing Josh Hamilton for a pitcher with serious control problems and an elfin reliever. That pitcher became Edinson Volquez (and the minuscule Danny Ray Herrera pitched relatively well in limited opportunities), so even though Josh Hamilton dominated AL pitching most of the year, the trade's probably a wash. Unfortunately, it meant the Rangers were scoring 6 or 7 runs in defeats. The Rangers haven't had a great starting pitcher since moving to the Ballpark at Arlington and can count their sub-4.00 ERA starters in that time on one hand -- or at least on Antonio Alfonseca's hand. Free agents are: Milton Bradley, Jason Jennings, Ramon Vazquez, Jamey Wright

Most likely to return: Milton Bradley is a DH and seems unlikely to move to a place where he'd have to play outfield every day. He's burned bridges in Los Angeles, San Diego, and Cleveland. The Rangers may be the only team actively bidding for his services, and he has performed for them. He should be back.

Most likely to leave:The Diamondbacks have already specifically mentioned Ramon Vazquez as a possible replacement for Orlando Hudson at second base. If a team's that interested, they should be able to outbid the Rangers, who would use him solely as a fill-in.

Non-tender candidates:None.

Prospect on the rise: Neftali Feliz pitched extremely well in the minors and might have an outside shot at cracking the rotation out of spring training, Max Ramirez and Taylor Teagarden will either be major league catchers or trade bait in 2009. Thomas Diamond, the only player of the Rangers' DVD pitching prospects to remain a Ranger (while the others -- John Danks and Edinson Volquez -- have made impressive debuts for other teams), struggled in 2008 after 2007 Tommy John surgery, but may yet prove to be major league ready.

Needs: Pitching of any sort. Kevin Millwood hasn't been an ace except for one season in Cleveland, Vicente Padilla is maddeningly inconsistent, and besides Matt Harrison, the young guys the Rangers are tossing behind them have pretty low ceilings.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Kason Gabbard went down for the year with a bone spur in his elbow, surgery on that may sideline him in early 2009. Milton Bradley was healthy in 2008. Counting on that to happen in 2009 would be a fool's errand.

Free agent ceiling: Ben Sheets may be a Ranger at the end of the offseason, because Mike Maddux is now the pitching coach of the Rangers, and the Rangers could use any starter, even one who's prone to injuries.

Oakland Athletics
Contrary to what everyone is saying, the A's are not trading Matt Holliday. They wanted two first round picks and by acquiring a man who is certain to be a Type A free agent, they have acquired those picks. He'll be with the A's come hell or high water in September. Beane hasn't done it for a while, but he used to do it all the time -- Ricardo Rincon, Ray Durham, Keith Foulke, Octavio Dotel are all examples (I think, it may only be three of the four) -- he trades for players who are likely to warrant compensation and if he can re-sign them, he will. If not, welcome draft picks. The Holliday move is unlikely to be the finish since Lew Wolff is apparently okay with a payroll surge. Free agents are insignificant: Emil Brown, Alan Embree, Keith Foulke, Mike Sweeney, Frank Thomas.

Most likely to return: Frank Thomas played well enough to consider bringing him back, but he's also a DH-only player, so it's unlikely anyone outside of Oakland will pony up any dough. The DH spot is likely going to be Jack Cust, but if the A's bring back Thomas, Cust can remain the American League's worst left fielder and move Matt Holliday to right. It's not a good defensive alignment, but it'll score a lot more runs.

Most likely to leave:Alan Embree's option was declined, he's a left-handed reliever who's not terrible. He'll find that money elsewhere.

Non-tender candidates: Matt Murton is 27 and hasn't shown the bat he was supposed to offer, Rajai Davis is a pure speed player on a team that doesn't have much interest in stealing bases. Rob Bowen has little upside as a #2 catcher, unless the A's intend to deal Landon Powell.

Prospect on the rise: Aaron Cunningham figures to be in the running to play in the outfield for the A's in 2009, but since he doesn't hit for much power or show much prowess with stealing bases, this speaks more about the questionable state of affairs in the A's outfield.

Needs: Third base, outfielders, starting pitching. Eric Chavez is not a dependable player, Jack Hannahan is not good enough to replace him, and Cliff Pennington doesn't look to be much better. Even with Matt Holliday, the A's outfield is Matt Holliday, Ryan Sweeney, and Jack Cust, which would be perhaps the worst fielding outfield in the history of Major League baseball. Landing another meaningful bat that could play right field and ensure Cust is a full-time DH would go a lot toward making this team respectable. For all the talk that Greg Smith was dispensable, he may have been the A's best starting pitcher last year after Harden and Blanton were dealt. The A's could use a veteran starting pitcher who could bring a little dependability to a volatile rotation of virtual rookies like Gio Gonzalez, Dallas Braden, and Sean Gallagher.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Eric Chavez missed most of 2008 after shoulder surgery, but simply can't be counted on as a major league player at this time in his career. Justin Duchscherer is expected to be ready to pitch "during spring training", so even a modest setback could affect his availability at the start of the regular season.

Free agent ceiling: The Athletics have some money and have been known to make random free agent investments in the past (remember Esteban Loaiza?). Jason Giambi is rumored to be on the horizon, Rafael Furcal has as well, and Furcal would almost certainly be the top of the free agent pool for the A's.

Seattle Mariners
The Mariners were supposed to contend last year. Whoops. Instead, they were one of the worst teams in baseball and got swindled on a deal for Erik Bedard that actually looked relatively favorable when the Mariners made it. Willie Bloomquist, Miguel Cairo, Raul Ibanez, and Jose Vidro are the Mariners' only free agents.

Most likely to return: Willie Bloomquist had far and away his best season in 2008. He's versatile enough to keep around since the team's not going to be getting much better in 2009. He's still unlikely to be back, but I'd give him considerably better odds than the others.

Most likely to leave:The Jose Vidro experiment is over. So is Jose Vidro's career.

Non-tender candidates: There has been talk that Erik Bedard may be the most impressive player non-tendered in my lifetime. Coming off surgery and likely to make significant money in arbitration, injury or not, there was talk last season of the Mariners cutting their losses and non-tendering Bedard. I don't think it will happen, but it is something the Mariners could consider if the prognosis gets worse in the next couple of weeks.

Prospect on the rise: Matt Tuiasasopo may hit the major leagues in 2009, particularly if the Mariners decide to deal Adrian Beltre. the other minor leaguers don't look to make an impact until until 2010.

Needs: First base, left and center field. Bryan LaHair may have made more contact than Richie Sexson, but he didn't produce anything to convince anyone he was a bona fide major league first baseman. Jeremy Reed finally produced enough to warrant a roster spot, but doesn't look like a star in center field. Wladamier Balantien hasn't looked like a player of major league caliber, which means the Mariners may need to look elsewhere to replace Raul Ibanez.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Erik Bedard is unlikely to be ready for the early part of the 2009 season, though the prognosis now has him returning by mid-season at least.

Free agent ceiling: This team's been making ill-advised buys for a while (Carlos Silva, Jarrod Washburn, Richie Sexson, the now comparatively successful Adrian Beltre), that'll pause for at least 2009.

NL West: Offseason Outlook

2008-11-13T17:18:00.000-08:00

NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers underachieved, didn't make the abominable deals that were rumored (Matt Kemp for Jack Wilson, anyone?) and were only stung by the predictably moronic signing of Andruw Jones. The others went relatively well. So what's left in the tank for the encore for this team? Well, there's talk that they want to move Russell Martin -- and only about half the remaining Dodgers are free agents. Joe Beimel, Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal, Nomar Garciaparra, Jason Johnson, Jeff Kent, Derek Lowe, Greg Maddux, Pablo Ozuna, Chan Ho Park, Brad Penny, Tanyon Sturtze, Mark Sweeney, and oh yeah, Manny Ramirez.

Most likely to return: Manny Ramirez seems a lock to return. He'd seem to be fourth or fifth at best on the Yankees' wish list after Sabathia, Teixeira, Derek Lowe, and A.J. Burnett and doesn't seem likely to get along with the management in New York. With Boston out of the picture, the Yankees are the only real option for Boras to use to drive the price up.

Most likely to leave:Brad Penny and Tanyon Sturtze were already told to get out, so we can assume they won't come back. Jeff Kent will probably retire. Rafael Furcal is targeted by a number of teams, and that may price him out of Los Angeles' plans.

Non-tender candidates:Danny Ardoin should be non-tendered, since the Dodgers are carrying a whopping five catchers on their 40-man roster even though their starting catcher played in 155 games. But with the number of free agents the Dodgers have, their 40-man roster will be sufficiently empty at Rule 5 time.

Prospect on the rise: James McDonald dazzled in the NLCS, shutting down the Phillies after they'd smacked around Chad Billingsley. He should get a shot at starting with Derek Lowe and Greg Maddux hitting free agency. Everyone else in the organization poised to have an impact...spent most of 2008 in the Majors.

Needs: 2B/SS/3B, relief pitching. Blake DeWitt is an acceptable major league starter at second base and showed some propensity for playing the position in the playoffs. But he's right now the top-listed player at both second and third. That will lead to some interesting infield defenses. The Dodgers are also in need of a shortstop, and preferably one considerably more durable than Rafael Furcal, who was fine when he played (3-error innings aside), but didn't play enough to make that a meaningful sample size. The outfield could use competence, since the available players to fill the Manny gap are Andruw Jones and Off Base Percentage factory Juan Pierre, but that'd be asking an awful lot. The relief corps is thin with Beimel, Maddux, and Park hitting free agency and McDonald potentially entering the rotation, so the Dodgers will need to add someone in that spot as well.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Andruw Jones' strained belt may sideline him for much of 2009 and will almost certainly prevent him from living up to the abortion of a contract Ned Colletti handed Scott Boras last year. Jason Schmidt's recovery from shoulder surgery has now taken the better part of two seasons, and it's hard to expect him to contribute in 2009, but the Dodgers will need him to come back strong.

Free agent ceiling: Manny Ramirez is the ceiling for the Dodgers, and if he leaves, the ceiling will likely be Derek Lowe. I don't think the Dodgers will pay much for free agents that aren't already Dodgers, considering Ned Colletti's last two smashing successes (Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones).

Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks probably had their best shot at making the playoffs in the near future ruined by a disappointing finish to the 2008 season. Now, they're about to hemorrhage free agents and will be relying heavily on a 1-2-3 punch of Webb, Haren, and Scherzer to get them through a rough patch. The Diamondbacks have a number of free agents, including a pair of key position players, a Hall of Famer, and a potential closer: Tony Clark, Juan Cruz, Adam Dunn, David Eckstein, Orlando Hudson, Randy Johnson, Brandon Lyon.

Most likely to return: Brandon Lyon has expressed willingness to return, nearly everyone else on the list is too expensive.

Most likely to leave: Adam Dunn had a productive 2 months with the Diamondbacks (.889 OPS, 8 HR to make his fourth straight season hitting exactly 40 home runs). Although he seems to have been lost in the LF market while teams are rumored to be in the hunt for Pat Burrell or Raul Ibanez, Dunn's home runs aren't going to stay lost.

Non-tender candidates:Randy Johnson's an atypical non-tender case. He hasn't filed for free agency yet, but the Diamondbacks would have to tender him a contract for at least 80% of his 2008 salary to keep him from becoming a free agent by default. That'd be $10 million, so he's getting non-tendered. Chris "I wasn't Corky on Life Goes On" Burke would be a candidate after two consecutive lousy seasons, but the Diamondbacks don't have a replacement for Orlando Hudson signed for next year, so he may get the job.

Prospect on the rise: Josh Whitesell and Jamie D'Antona both smoked the ball in AAA Tucson last year. The only problems are that they play first base (already filled by Conor Jackson and Chad Tracy) and they play in the National League. If they get a shot, they could make an impact in 2009, but Conor Jackson needs to take to being a full-time left fielder and Chad Tracy will probably need to get hurt for both of them to stick on the major league roster.

Needs: Second base, starting pitching. Orlando Hudson is gone after 2008, David Eckstein is a sub-.700 OPS player who continues to get by on mistaken assessments of his clutchness (which was even more of a joke than usual in 2008 -- .729 OPS with bases empty, .649 with runners on). With Randy Johnson leaving and Doug Davis less than a year from chemotherapy, it'd be folly to go to the regular season with no more starting depth, though the Diamondbacks' budget won't accommodate much more than a few minor league deals to the Mark Redmans of the world.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Eric Byrnes' hamstring injury made him appear to be an even worse signing than he was.

Free agent ceiling: The Diamondbacks have already said they have less than $10 million to spend in the offseason. That pretty much rules out making a big splash, and rules out Orlando hudson, Adam Dunn, and probably even Randy Johnson. Brandon Lyon is an outside shot, but that might commit too much of the team's budget considering their needs. Ramon Vazquez/Brandon Lyon are probably the ceiling.

Colorado Rockies
The Rockies returned to real life in 2008, where teams with mediocre pitching and hitting didn't go to the World Series. They aren't far from the front of the NL West, even without Matt Holliday, though the trade probably moved them back.
Brian Fuentes, Matt Herges, Livan Hernandez, Adam Melhuse, Scott Podsednik, Glendon Rusch

Most likely to return: Matt Herges and Glendon Rusch are the only players you will plausibly see in Rockies' uniforms next year. I think Herges has the edge, since he's been with the Rnockies a couple of years and will generate less interest than Rusch, simply because Rusch throws with the correct arm.

Most likely to leave: It was a surprise to see Brian Fuentes remain a member of the Rockies past July, it'd be a heart attack inducer to see him re-sign there.

Non-tender candidates: None.

Prospect on the rise: With Ian Stewart cracking the Rockies lineup for part of 2008, the Rockies already graduated their top prospect. Dexter Fowler is blocked only by Ryan Spilborghs/Carlos Gonzalez from claiming an everyday spot in the Rockies' outfield. While he's not the same level of prospect as Gonzalez, he could still beat him out. Joe Koshansky could figure in the Rockies' plans after another solid season at AAA, although with Garret Atkins and Todd Helton still receiving paychecks from the Rockies, his playing time will be pretty sparse.

Needs: Relief pitching. Surprisingly, they don't really have any major holes. The starting rotation needs to be better, but the candidates from within (Aaron Cook, Jeff Francis, Ubaldo Jimenez, Frankly Morales, Greg Smith, Greg Reynolds, and Jorge de la Rosa) are adequate. The bullpen's still got Manny Corpas, Taylor Bucholz, and Jason Grilli. But they will need depth, particularly since three relief pitchers are free agents: Brian Fuentes, Matt Herges, and Glendon Rusch.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Todd Helton had lower back surgery in September, but he's ceased to be a major player in this lineup.

Free agent ceiling: Because the needs are pretty minimal, the Rockies aren't likely to invest money in any players. They're still rumored to be looking to move Garrett Atkins and Willy Taveras to cut payroll further.

San Francisco Giants
In the first season of the post-Barry Bonds era, the Giants found themselves as one of the most offensively inept teams in the major leagues. With the Giants finishing 28th and the A's finishing 30th in the league in OPS, the San Francisco Bay was starved of runs. Rich Aurilia and Omar Vizquel are the Giants' only major league free agents.

Most likely to return: Since there's only two, the answer is clearly Aurilia. Aurilia's versatility is helpful for a team with a lot of gaps, though his defense at 3B isn't particularly impressive.

Most likely to leave: The Giants declined Vizquel's option and were not subtle about his non-return. He may have another year in him and wash ashore in St. Louis or some other team in need of a shortstop, but he's hardly a sure thing to play in 2009 and will likely retire 343 hits short of 3,000.

Non-tender candidates: None.

Prospect on the rise: Pablo Sandoval isn't even a rookie any more, so he doesn't count. Travis Ishikawa may be a borderline prospect, but is likely to put together pretty pitiful numbers for a first baseman.

Needs: Everything except starting pitching. The Giants don't have any gaping holes, but it's because most of their positions would be considered a hole on other teams. Aaron Rowand is fine. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez are a superb core, Noah Lowry is effective enough when healthy, and Barry Zito was less awful than he was in 2007.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Noah Lowry missed all of 2008 with elbow surgery, but is expected to be back in 2009.

Free agent ceiling: The Giants are never afraid to overpay for players. They may be able to make a play for C.C. Sabathia or Manny Ramirez, though a lot may depend on the Yankees.

San Diego Padres
Trevor Hoffman, Mark Prior, Brett Tomko

Most likely to return: Tomko had control problems with the Padres, but fared well after arriving in San Diego. He's hardly a lock to return, but shouldn't cost the Padres much at this point.

Most likely to leave: Trevor Hoffman received an embarrassment of an offer just after the Padres paid $9 million to Brian Giles (admittedly, Giles had a $3 million buyout, so the choice was between paying $9 million or $3 million). He's a near-lifetime Padre having had brief runs in the Reds minor league system before going to Florida in the expansion draft, but he's going to finish his career elsewhere.

Non-tender candidates:None.

Prospect on the rise: Will Venable may be able to play a role in the Padres' outfield in 2009, after a productive year at AAA. Though he's probably blocked by Brian Giles and Chase Headley, he could be a part of the big picture. Other than that, the Padres are pretty devoid of high-level prospects.

Needs: Catching, starting pitching, shortstop. The Padres are completely empty behind the plate, with only Nick Hundley on the 40-man roster. Jake Peavy and Chris Young are a dynamic pairing, but Cha-Seung Baek and Josh Banks are hardly world-beaters and there's nothing behind him.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: No major injuries will be following the Padres into 2009.

Free agent ceiling: The floor's the limit in San Diego. If they're not willing to pay Trevor Hoffman $4 million or Jake Peavy his below-market deal, it's unlikely this team's making a play for any major free agents.

Thursday Trade Blitz; Gregg; Swisher; Damaso (not Andy) Marte re-signs

2008-11-13T16:43:00.000-08:00

Deal:
The Chicago Cubs trade for ousted Marlins' closer Kevin Gregg, giving up relief pitching prospect Jose Ceda.

Analysis:
Kevin Gregg was an effective closer up until about August, when the wheels seemed to come off. Although he'd blown 4 saves in the first two months of the season, every one of those saves was a 1-run save. On July 3-4, Gregg blew two straight saves, allowing two runs in each appearance even at that, he settled in, but completely fell apart in August, compiling an ERA of 10.18 after ERAs of 2.51, 2.08, 2.38, and 2.92 in previous months. The Marlins pulled him from the closer's role and replaced him with Matt Lindstrom, who converted all five of his save opportunities.

Gregg improved by leaps and bounds once he got in Florida, and it looks at first glance like it was all traceable to his suddenly unhittable stuff, because batters went from hitting .278 and .280 his last two seasons with the Angels to .206 and .203 his two seasons in Florida. His home run rate dropped dramatically from 10 to 3 after two years in Miami. But, as fangraphs shows us, Gregg's resurgence probably has a lot more to do with good luck (or good team defense -- but in Florida, I'll assume it was luck) than great improvement as a pitcher.

Though his other numbers make it look like all is fine in Kevin Gregg-land, the sharp drop in his K rate indicates that Gregg may be in trouble. After striking out 1.03 an inning in 2007 to 0.84 K/IP, while his walk rate soared from an already career high 0.40 BB/IP in 2007 to a 0.54 BB/IP in 2008. This is a frightening combination, particularly for a pitcher who can be expected to allow more home runs in the Friendly Confines than in the pitcher-friendly confines of Dolphins Stadium. So there's good reason to believe the Cubs aren't getting a dynamite closer/setup man.

What did they give up? Jose Ceda, a 21 year-old fireballing prospect who compiled a 2.08 ERA in AA Tennessee last year. Ceda was rated as the #4 prospect in the Cubs' organization behind untouchable Josh Vitters, NL Rookie of the Year Geovany Soto, and outfielder Tyler Colvin (Ceda was rated ahead of players like Jeff Samardzija, Eric Patterson, and Sean Gallagher -- the latter two of whom were traded in the Rich Harden deal). Though Ceda struggled in the Florida State League, when he got to AA, he blew away hitters, striking out 42 in 30.1 innings. He has struggled with his control at times (31 BB in 46 IP at low-A Peoria in 2007 and about 0.50 BB/IP in A/AA ball last year) and has a tendency to gain weight (last year wavering between 247 and his now-listed 275 pounds).

It's hard to see how this deal makes sense for the Cubs. Only a couple days after making an astonishing deal for low-level prospects who couldn't contribute in the near future, Larry Beinfest makes a deal for a pitcher who's probably only a year away by dealing an overrated closer that seems to have gotten by on luck for the last two years. Gregg may be okay for the Cubs, but doesn't offer much more than was available on the free agent market for what Gregg will cost post-arbitration, and may offer less than Ceda might have in the Majors this year. And Ceda is only 21.

Now, the Cubs have announced that Kerry Wood won't be back. Don't worry about getting swept in the playoffs next year, Cubs fans. With this kind of management, you should finish about fourth.

Deal:
Damaso Marte re-signs with the Yankees for 3 years, $12 million.

Analysis:
I was surprised the Yankees didn't pick up Marte's $6 million option, but they got a potentially better deal by giving Marte a couple extra years.

Marte was an odd player last year thanks to some sample sizes, because lefties hit him considerably better than right-handers (this is not historically the case, however). He didn't pitch particularly well for the Yankees (5.40 ERA, 1.31 WHIP), but most of it could be attributed to a sudden spike in walks (10 in 18.1 innings for the Yankees after 16 in 46.2 IP for the Pirates). At $4 million per, Marte could be a good value and probably compares favorably to available left-handed relievers like Alan Embree and about even with Jeremy Affeldt (who signed for $4 million last year). While Dennys Reyes may have been available more cheaply, Marte has more upside and can fit a role beyond a left-handed specialist.

Deal:
Nick Swisher and Kanekoa Texeira are traded to the New York Yankees for Wilson Betemit, Jeff Marquez, and Jhonny Nunez.

Analysis:
Nick Swisher and Jhonny Nunez are the new chlamydia.

It seems like everyone in baseball goes to bed and wakes up with Nick Swisher, he of the legendary "Moneyball" draft where Billy Beane slandered players such as B.J. Upton, Scott Kazmir, Cole Hamels, and Prince Fielder (all, as you know, monumental failures) while drafting first-ballot Hall of Famer Jeremy Brown (at least I assume Golden Tee has a hall of fame) Swisher has been traded twice in the last calendar year and now joins the Yankees, possibly as a center fielder, possibly as a right fielder, and possibly as a first baseman.

Swisher was underwhelming in Chicago, with a .219 batting average, .742 OPS, 24 HR, 69 RBI in 153 games. He almost earned the photo on his MLB Player Card with a pitiful performance. (Note also the obviously superimposed Yankees cap). I've never been a fan of Swisher's, but he's been an adequate corner outfielder in the past. If he's the best the Yankees can do at first base, I'd be pretty astonished.

Kanekoa Texeira is not Mark Teixeira and is not a first baseman, and is not a bad-looking prospect. He served as a closer at high-A Winston-Salem and posted a sub-1.00 ERA before making the move to AA and posting a 2.01 in 22.1 IP there. He's still only 22, but his minor league numbers are impressive and he already has an accomplished slider. He wasn't a prospect in the top 30 for the White Sox according to Baseball America last year, but there's little doubt that was going to change.

The White Sox's biggest acquisition in this deal is Wilson Betemit. The White Sox have holes at every infield spot unless Konerko turns on again this year, so Betemit gives them a little versatility, but doesn't offer much in the way of offense or defense. His best positions appear to be third and first, the two spots that the White Sox seem to have filled with Josh Fields and Paul Konerko. He can play some at second base, but has never been a first option there.

2008 was Betemit's worst season, where he notched a whopping .289 OBP (how he slipped by Dayton Moore's trade radar, I'll never know), drawing 6 walks in 189 at bats. Once hyped as something of a 5-tool prospect, he now has only one recognizable tool that would separate him from the average 4A player, and that tool (power) is only marginal (10 HR is his career high, since no team has seen him fit to play everyday).

Jeff Marquez is a fallen prospect in the Yankees organization. A first round pick in the 2004 draft, Marquez pitched well at AA in 2007, but fell off sharply in AAA and watched his K rate decline even farther, striking out 33 in 80.2 IP. Marquez lives off his ability to throw strikes, but doubled his home run rate in 2008 (12 HR allowed in 80.1 after 11 HR allowed in 155 IP in 2007). For a sinkerballer, a rising home run rate is never encouraging. He's only 24, so another trip through AAA might help him learn to put away hitters, but his high-end projection doesn't seem particularly high. It's a strain to see him figuring in the White Sox rotation in the next couple of years.

Jhonny Nunez has faced more than his share of trades, having been traded to the Nationals from the Dodgers for Marlon Anderson, then being traded from the Nats to the Yankees for AG and Washington insider Alberto Gonzale(s)z. Now he's joining his fourth organization before he's spent a full season in AA. Nunez struggled as a starter at high-A Potomac in the extremely pitcher-friendly Carolina League, but excelled as a reliever in AA.

So why make this deal with Betemit as a centerpiece if you're the White Sox? My best guess is that the White Sox hate Jim Callis and his pristine Baseball America Prospect Handbook, which will identify Marquez as a Yankees prospect. Other than that, they achieve nothing -- they hurt their offense, don't make their team any younger, and fill no immediate needs, while removing an everyday player from their lineup in favor of Jerry Owens and Brian Anderson.

NL Central: offseason outlook

2008-11-12T17:35:00.000-08:00

Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are underproducing at a surprising number of spots for a team that won nearly 100 games in 2008 (2B/SS/CF/RF). The Cubs face a number of free agents: Henry Blanco, Ryan Dempster, Jim Edmonds, Chad Fox, Bobby Howry, Jon Lieber, Daryle Ward (mutual option), and Kerry Wood.

Most likely to return: Kerry Wood seems probable to return after having a mostly successful year as the Cubs' closer. With Trevor Hoffman entering the already saturated market for big money closers, the Cubs are probably Wood's best option.

Most likely to leave: Bob Howry is probably on his way out of Chicago after a largely ineffective 2008 campaign (5.35 ERA) and Jon Lieber is on his way to another minor league contract or retirement.

Non-tender candidates: Koyie Hill is a 29 year old non-prospect at catcher, he's not likely to be kept on the 40-man roster since the Cubs may re-sign Henry Blanco or turn over backup duties to the slugging AAA catcher Jake Fox, who clubbed 31 homers last year at Iowa.

Prospect on the rise: Micah Hoffpauir could be a meaningful bat in right field for the Cubs if he can play the position well enough to stick. His strikeout rate is extremely high (24 in 73 AB), but his power and on-base potential so vastly exceeds what Fukudome produced that he may be worth a long look. Jeff Samardzija was over-hyped in the playoffs and only the Cubs' rapid elimination kept him from suffering the same fate as David Price -- having one great performance in October blown up by sportswriters into a career of near-inevitable Cy Young Awards.

Needs: Right field, center field, pitching depth. For every bit as embarrassing as it was to see Jason Varitek be chosen by the players for the 2008 All-Star game, the fans voting in Kosuke Fukudome was little better, since there actually were outfielders who played well in 2008. Fukudome is a mediocre player with more power than So Taguchi, but who showed little to commend himself as a major league hitter past May. The other spots are only needs if the Cubs don't re-sign their own free agents. Jim Edmonds isn't great, but he played adequately in center field for the Cubs, Ryan Dempster isn't worth what the Cubs will have to pay (and got some Cy Young votes today that I'd have given to Edinson Volquez), but is likely to pitch well enough to bring back if the Cubs don't trust Rich Hill.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: I'm not seeing any.

Free agent ceiling: The Cubs are probably going to stay out of the free agent market, beyond possibly re-signing Dempster and Wood. There is talk that the Tribune Company has already decided they can't sell the entire team in one transaction because of economic issues, so there's little reason to believe the Cubs are going to expand payroll. Their involvement almost certainly caps out at the A.J. Burnett/Derek Lowe/Ryan Dempster tier of free agents.

Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers mortgaged their future a bit by trading for C.C. Sabathia, who did everything necessary to get the team to the playoffs where the streaky lineup and bad pitching setup (Sabathia unavailable until Game 2 -- and even then on his fifth straight start on short rest) cost them much of a shot of derailing the Phillies. In the meantime, about 50% of the major league roster is entering free agency: Russell Branyan, Craig Counsell, Ray Durham, Eric Gagne, Gabe Kapler, Mike Lamb, Guillermo Mota, C.C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Brian Shouse, and Salomon Torres. (Incidentally, the Brewers' web site is selling things that say "Wild card!" on them...like coffee mugs and picture frames -- a great gift for the mentally unstable psychopaths in your life -- and no one else).

Most likely to return: Gabe Kapler was a useful and productive role player for the Brewers but is unlikely to get a starting job in the majors, so he seems like a probable returnee.

Most likely to leave: Salomon Torres just retired, so we can cross him off the list. Ben Sheets seems to have angered a lot of people in Milwaukee with his frequent injury problems and his unavailability for the NLDS is probably the final straw. Although he's been a relatively talented pitcher, his undependability really doesn't suit the Brewers fan stereotype I envision, who like their players dirty, dingy, and in the lineup. C.C. Sabathia still strikes me as certainly out of Milwaukee, though I'm not buying that he'll sign with the Yankees.

Non-tender candidates: Unless the Brewers feel like Vinny Rottino or Angel Salome is going to take over as the #2 catcher, none. If Rottino is the guy, then Mike Rivera is on his way out.

Prospect on the rise: Mat Gamel may get a shot to play third base in 2009, which could return Bill Hall to the super-sub role he played in 2005 or even replace Weeks at 2B. Gamel was allegedly a target in the Sabathia deal, but the Brewers were unwilling to part with him.

Needs: Pitching. The Brewers are fine in the outfield, though Mike Cameron being worth $10 million still boggles my mind. But they're facing the loss of Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia. While their remaining rotation of Gallardo, Suppan, Bush, Parra, and McClung might be passable, adding a starter in the Randy Wolf mode could shift McClung to the bullpen and give the team more versatility. With most of the 2008 bullpen on the free agent list above, they'll need to make substantial investments in the free agent market just to stand pat.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Rickie Weeks ended up missing the NLDS with a torn meniscus in his knee. While he's likely to be ready for spring training in 2009, it may limit his speed. Chris Capuano missed 2008 with a torn ligament in his elbow and will likely miss a portion of 2009 as well. Yovani Gallardo still needs to build up his stamina after having missed nearly all of 2008 with a torn ACL. David Riske, the most predictable thing in the now-barren Brewers 'pen, had late season surgery on his pitching elbow to remove a bone spur, but will almost certainly be ready for Spring Training.

Free agent ceiling: The Brewers allegedly made a huge offer to Sabathia, but unless he accepts it, I don't think they're going to be players in the free agent market beyond simply replacing the parts they're losing. Even then, I think the prospect-heavy organization may be more inclined to seek trades for pre-free agency types like Huston Street.

Houston Astros
The Astros looked dreadful early on, stung by the Brad Lidge trade that produced modest dividends for the Astros (Geoff Geary did notch a 2.52 ERA, but Michael Bourn provided nothing (.288 OBP) at the top of the lineup) and a cringeworthy debut from catcher J.R. Towles. Powered by an astounding season from Lance Berkman and a resurgence from Roy Oswalt's slow start, the Astros nearly finished their season in October. Their looming free agents are useful pieces, but not exactly cornerstones: Brad Ausmus, Doug Brocail, Mark Loretta, Randy Wolf.

Most likely to return: Although the Astros declined a reasonably priced option on Doug Brocail at $3.25 million, Brocail is a year-round Houston resident and isn't a big-ticket free agent for any clubs (though he would fit in a number of bullpens). Wolf may well return as well.

Most likely to leave: If Brad Ausmus is going to play in 2009, it will be in a location closer to his home in San Diego. My gut is that he'll call the Mariners and see if he can take over as a player-manager starting tomorrow.

Non-tender candidates: None.

Prospect on the rise: J.R. Towles is going to have to seize the catcher's job in Houston in 2009. After a dreadful start to the season, Towles spent most of the year back at AAA. Drew Sutton had a nice season at AA ball and may be in line to spell or displace the woeful Kaz Matsui by September. The Astros signed Taiwanese closer Chia-Jen Lo, but he sounds like he's a couple years away. It's hard to tell with any certainty, though.

Needs: Catcher, center field, starting pitching. The only thing the Astros will likely target in free agency is pitching, because they still have J.R. Towles and Michael Bourn to fill the first two slots. Those players' production in 2008 is the reason to believe these are team needs, though. Behind Roy Oswalt, the Astros have no sure thing starters -- Brandon Backe registered a 6.05 ERA, Wandy Rodriguez missed another stretch of time with injuries, and Brian Moehler only made the rotation because of injury.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Chris Sampson needed non-Tommy John elbow surgery that will likely sideline him for at least a month of the regular season in 2009. Geoff Geary had surgery on a torn abdominal muscle and on his hip right after the season ended. While he should be ready by spring training, rehabbing the injuries may leave him in less than optimal condition for the season.

Free agent ceiling: Andy Pettitte or Randy Wolf are probably the top of the line for the Astros, who turned in a surprising season on the backs of unexpectedly competent performances from Kaz Matsui and Ty Wigginton.

St. Louis Cardinals
The forgotten story of 2008 is that the Cardinals, not the Cubs, led the NL Central for much of the season. It wasn't until the Brewers acquired Sabathia and the Cubs landed Rich Harden that the tide started to turn on the Cardinals. The Cards face a number of potential defections, none of which is likely to be particularly damaging: Juan Encarnacion, Jason Isringhausen, Cesar Izturis, Braden Looper, Felipe Lopez, Mark Mulder, Russ Springer, Ron Villone

Most likely to return: Felipe Lopez resurrected his season once landing with the Cardinals (.385/.425/.538) and provides defensive versatility, being ham-handed at both second base and shortstop. Since both positions are wastelands in the Cardinals organization right now, Lopez makes a lot of sense. Russ Springer had a career year for the Cardinals with a 2.32 ERA in 70 games for the Cardinals. He's considering retirement, but if he returns, it'll certainly be to the Cardinals.

Most likely to leave: Mark Mulder wasn't Mozeliak's guy in the first place, it wouldn't be surprising to see him end up back with Walt Jocketty in Cincinnati. In the meantime, Mulder's said he won't sign anywhere until he's ready to pitch. Cesar Izturis didn't make many fans in St. Louis and has too little upside to consider keeping.

Non-tender candidates: None.

Prospect on the rise: Jason Motte may be the best reliever in the Cardinals organization in 2009 and he certainly looked solid in 2008, making 12 appearances with a 0.82 ERA. In AAA, he struck out an astonishing 110 batters in 66 2/3 innings. So it sure looks like he may be ready. Colby Rasmus was supposed to be the center fielder of 2008. Instead, he sputtered in the minor leagues, finally got on track, and then got injured. His star has probably fallen in St. Louis, but he's a valuable trade piece and may make the major league roster at some point in 2009.

Needs: Middle infielders, a starter, and relief pitching. Chris Perez is likely to take the reins as the closer for the Cardinals at some point in the next two years, but it seems likely that the Cardinals would like to get someone more experienced in that bullpen while they're on the verge of contending. If they lose Villone and Springer, the bullpen will be pretty empty unless the Cardinals make moves.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Chris Carpenter's health pretty much dictates the Cardinals' rotation. A rotation headed by Wainwright and Carpenter is good. A rotation headed by Wainwright and Kyle Lohse or Todd Wellemeyer is bad. Chris Duncan's neck injuries sank most of his season, but if he returns healthy, the Cardinals have a formidable outfield of Ludwick/Ankiel/Duncan/Schumacker/Barton with Rasmus on the horizon.

Free agent ceiling: The Cardinals will likely make an offer to a free agent closer -- more likely to be Brian Fuentes than K-Rod. That's probably as much as they can spend, though, especially after overpaying horribly for Kyle Lohse (4 years, $41 million).

Cincinnati Reds
The Reds were dragged down by a dreadful year from Aaron Harang, a woeful start for the eventually-effective Bronson Arroyo, and a dearth of production from catcher, shortstop, and center field. The bullpen woes of years past were ameliorated a bit, but still loom over a team on the verge of losing effective relievers to free agency. The Reds are laden with free agents: David Weathers, Jeremy Affeldt, Paul Bako, Josh Fogg, Jerry Hairston, Mike Lincoln, Kent Mercker, Corey Patterson, Javier Valentin.

Most likely to return: Jerry Hairston had a career year with the Reds and got a chance to play every day when he was healthy. As one of the two Dusty Baker specials the Reds brought in near the end of spring training, he knows he'll have a lengthy opportunity to play in Cincinnati.

Most likely to leave: Corey Patterson was a favorite of Dusty Baker's, reminding the Reds just why Wayne Krivsky was so foolish to have hired Dusty Baker. Patterson is probably en route to Japan or a minor league deal after a woeful 2008. Paul Bako won't be back.

Non-tender candidates: God willing, Andy Phillips. In other words, no chance of any.

Prospect on the rise: Homer Bailey no longer counts, since he's become something of a marginal prospect at best. Daryl Thompson may have a role on the major league club after showing something in his debut start with the Reds, but will have to beat out Micah Owings for the fifth spot in the rotation. Chris Dickerson showed off some of his tremendous potential in 2008 and won't have much competition to push him in 2008. Ryan Hanigan wasn't a major prospect in the organization before last season, but looks poised to be the Reds' everyday catcher barring a misguided acquisition of Ivan Rodriguez or Jason Varitek.

Needs: Catcher, shortstop, outfield depth. The black hole behind the plate for the Reds was horrific in 2008. David Ross, Paul Bako, and Javier Valentin mustered a whopping 13 home runs and a .230 batting average. Although Ryan Hanigan showed promise in September, the Reds need someone else behind the plate since Devin Mesoraco is probably two years away. If Ryan Freel and Norris Hopper can stay healthy, the Reds may have an adequate outfield, but that's a bet that not even Pete Rose would make.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Alex Gonzalez's knee fracture robbed Reds' fans of his particular brand of offensive ineptitude in 2008, Jeff Keppinger looked lousy after breaking his own knee. Ryan Freel's injuries took him out of commission for 2008 and Norris Hopper barely made an appearance before tearing his ulnar collateral ligament and missed much of 2008.

Free agent ceiling: The Reds were a surprise player in signing Francisco Cordero last year, but don't seem likely to make a big investment again this year because the market for players who could really improve the team is pretty sparse. After dealing Griffey and Dunn, though, the money's there. I'd say that there's a 1 in 20 chance that Raul Ibanez, Bobby Abreu, or Pat Burrell play home games in Great American Ballpark next year, but other than that, re-signing Weathers and Affeldt would be the biggest investments Jocketty should be able to justify. If the Reds do attempt to make a splash, it will probably be in signing one of the broken-down catchers -- Varitek or Rodriguez, so Reds fans should probably hope for a very placid offseason.

Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates traded their best player in 2008, got Nate McLouth to win a gold glove as the worst defensive center fielder in the Majors, and got another LaRoche brother for their fans to turn on. The good news? This team isn't getting any worse and Chris Antonetti has made some solid moves in his first season as GM. Now just watch him sign Derek "Operation shutdown" Bell. Free agents for the Pirates: Chris Gomez, Jason Michaels, Doug Mientkiewicz, and Luis Rivas.

Most likely to return: Probably Mientkiewicz. He was versatile and dropped the attitude in Pittsburgh, playing first and third base, and compiled a solid OBP (.374). He's got absolutely no home run power, but he's not a drain on this team's offense. He'll likely be back.
Jason Michaels fell a long way in a big hurry, but the Pirates seem interested in bringing him back. His .652 OPS shouldn't fit any team's plans, though he did hit remarkably well with runners in scoring position (.321/.365/.548), so perhaps Neal Huntington worships at the illusory altar of clutch? If so, be ready with the fetal position, Bucs fans.

Most likely to leave: Chris Gomez is a serviceable enough utility infielder that he should catch on with a team a little more likely to contend and add a 9th major league club to his resume.

Non-tender candidates: Not around here.

Prospect on the rise: Andrew McCutchen could stand to improve his Juan Pierre-like stolen base technique (34 SB in 53 attempts at AAA Indianapolis), but doesn't seem likely to get much out of another trip to Indianapolis next year. With the Pirates' outfield decimated by the injury to Brandon Moss and dependence on Nate McLouth's apparently golden glove, they could use another catalyst. The real bad news is that there are no pitchers on the horizon, so another 6th place finish is nearly certain.

Needs: Jack Wilson's retirement speech, outfielders, starting pitching. Jack Wilson continues to be rumored in trades for honest-to-god major leaguers (this year's was Matt Kemp), but it's impossible to get around his aggressive mediocrity (.687 career OPS). If there's a team who will take him, the Pirates need to move him and get the money they're paying him back in their bank accounts. After trading Xavier Nady and Jason Bay in 2008, it's unsurprising there's no corner outfielders ready to go in the system, but Brandon Moss and Steve Pearce are not even acceptable as stopgap players. If McCutchen gets the CF job and moves McLouth to LF, things look a lot better, but the team still needs someone who can be productive. The starting pitchers the Pirates have assembled have shown nothing to indicate that they were who they were purported to be. Ross Ohlendorf and Jeff Karstens are in the mix now, Ian Snell probably has a guranteed spot after a shockingly awful season (1.76 WHIP), this is a team in need of help. Zach Duke was bad last year, but only bad. He's in. Maholm was actually decent. He's in.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Brandon Moss will probably miss at least a month of the regular season after late-season surgery on his knee. Phil Dumatrait missed 2008 with shoulder surgery and will likely still be rehabbing as Spring Training rolls around.

Free agent ceiling: The Pirates will continue their trend of bargain-basement shopping. There's no real reason for them to try to invest in big-time players because they'd have to overpay badly for them in any event. There's probably going to be a lot of Josh Fogg/Sidney Ponson signings, but few guaranteed major league deals.

A brief digression -- how the NL Cy Young vote proves democracy/idiocracy doesn't work

2008-11-11T16:54:00.002-08:00

Tim Lincecum wins the NL Cy Young.

What puzzles me the most is that C.C. Sabathia got 3 votes (1 first, 1 second, and 1 third).

I understand the first place vote.

But who on earth concludes that he gets a second place vote? Or a third?

There are only two sensible positions to take.

1) Sabathia didn't pitch enough in the National League to prove that he was the best pitcher in the league -- the Cy Young is a year-long award.

2) Sabathia was far and away the best pitcher in the National League, even on three days' rest, he was phenomenal and was the key to the Brewers' playoff run. His ERA was Bob Gibson-level fantastic and no pitcher meant more to his team.

There is no "well, Sabathia only pitched half the season in the National League, therefore, he's the second or third best pitcher in the National League."

Too dumb for words. While it's exceptionally rare that there's someone who is so clearly empirically better than another that this is the case, this is definitely that case.

Yesterday was another proof of democracy not working, with Edinson Volquez receiving three second place votes for Rookie of the Year, even though he was not a rookie. The people casting those votes should have their votes taken away from them.

AL East: Offseason Outlook

2008-11-11T16:49:00.000-08:00

Offseason outlook:
AL East
Tampa Bay Rays:
Rocco Baldelli, Cliff Floyd, Eric Hinske and Trever Miller are all free agents. Floyd and Miller both had their options declined, Cliff Floyd will likely end the not-so-illustrious career that peaked when he was on the cover of Beckett Baseball Card Monthly in May 1994. Oh, and he won a World Series, but I'm pretty sure he had little to do with that. Curse you, Craig Counsell/Edgar Renteria/Tony Fernandez/Jose Mesa.

Most Likely to Return: Hinske, I guess, though I'd put those odds considerably longer than the Rays repeating the AL pennant. Hinske played relatively well for half a season but fell off a cliff in the second half and was only on the World Series roster after Floyd was removed for an injury.

Most likely to leave: Trever Miller's option got declined not because it was prohibitively expensive, but because the Rays feel they have a bullpen surplus where J.P. Howell and possibly David Price will provide left-handed arms. He'll find another job.

Non-tender candidates: Jonny Gomes continued his decline in 2008, finishing with an OPS+ of 73 and finishing the year in AAA. Though the Rays will lose Cliff Floyd and possibly Rocco Baldelli, Gomes' defensive deficiencies and offensive ineptitude may lead to him finding a new line of work in the offseason.

Prospect on the rise: Enough has been said about David Price for now. Jeff Niemann has taken longer than expected, but looks to be ready for the major leagues, Wade Davis and James Houser are probably less than a year away as well. Though Reid Brignac didn't hit much at AAA, he may figure on the club as a utility infielder in 2009.

Needs: A right fielder, DH, and a backup catcher. Catcher isn't a pressing position if Dioner Navarro maintains his durability and bat, but both seem unlikely. The Rays could probably live through a season of Gabe Gross, Ben Zobrist, Fernando Perez, and maybe Willy Aybar in right field, but it wouldn't take too much to improve upon it. Similarly, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Rays pick up a few minor league free agents to try and fill the DH spot.

Injuries that could figure in 2009:

Free agent ceiling: The rumors linking the Rays to Pat Burrell seem pretty implausible. Though the team could use a corner outfielder/DH, their budget won't likely expand that much.

Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have a number of free agents, but none of whom played a pivotal role in the playoff run in 2008. Free agents are: Paul Byrd, Sean Casey, Bartolo Colon, Alex Cora, Mark Kotsay, David Ross, Curt Schilling, Mike Timlin, Jason Varitek.

Most likely to return: Alex Cora is the only player on this list who I could envision the Red Sox making a serious effort to re-sign aside from the woeful Varitek, who was one of the worst players in Major League Baseball last year. Cora would help as a defensive replacement and could play behind Jed Lowrie and Dustin Pedroia if the Red Sox can trade Julio Lugo's ugly contract in the offseason.

Most likely to leave: Mark Kotsay played pretty poorly for the Red Sox after being brought in to fill an outfield role and eventually being trainsitioned to first base. He had played adequately for the Braves, but his injury-prone nature and limited power and speed have drastically reduced his value on the market.

Non-tender candidates: The Red Sox are unlikely to non-tender anyone, since their roster is likely to thin out after the free agent signing period begins.

Prospect on the rise: Lars Anderson may resolve the need for a first baseman if Youkilis should move to third to replace Lowell.

Needs: The Red Sox need little help anywhere, but could use another arm in the bullpen to put with Papelbon, Okajima, Justin Masterson, Manny Delcarmen, and Javier Lopez. They could also use another option at either first base or third base to cover for Mike Lowell's injury.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Mike Lowell's hip may limit his production in 2009, if he bounces back to play at all. Josh Beckett's health will be a topic of perpetual discussion between now and spring training. Julio Lugo's torn quadricep will limit his already minimal trade value and J.D. Drew is rarely healthy for an entire season.

Free agent ceiling: The Red Sox are unlikely to make any major signings since Sabathia doesn't fill a need, Manny Ramirez is unwelcome, and Mark Teixeira is expensive. Brian Fuentes may interest the Red Sox as a setup man, but the cost may exceed his value to the Red Sox.

New York Yankees
The Yankees are an old team with no pitching and they're on the verge of losing some of the most talented pieces they have. The Yankees' free agents are a tale of misguided acquisitions or players who could no longer deliver -- Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, Damaso Marte, Chad Moeller, Mike Mussina, Carl Pavano, Andy Pettitte, Sidney Ponson, Ivan Rodriguez, Richie Sexson

Most likely to return: Mike Mussina will decide whether he will retire or pitch for the Yankees in 2009, but I think the opportunity to start opening day to open a new Yankee Stadium will persuade him to stick around for one more year. I think Giambi and Abreu may also return, since the market for both players will be tepid and the Yankees don't have ready-made players at 1B or RF, but much depends on whether Teixeira signs with the Yankees.

Most likely to leave: Carl Pavano is a reminder of Cashman's failed efforts over the last decade as a GM, and I don't think there's any way the Yankees' fans would permit his return.

Non-tender candidates: The Yankees will want to move some of their current roster, but are unlikely to non-tender anyone like Melky Cabrera, who they continue to pitch in trades.

Prospect on the rise: Austin Jackson could take the CF job from the mishmash of Brett Gardner and Melky Cabrera at some point in 2009. He didn't do anything remarkable at Trenton (OPS of .773), but his primary competitor (Gardner) has less power and didn't show a propensity to reach base in the majors.

Needs: Pitching, first base, and center field. For a team with a mammoth payroll, so much is tied up in the left side of the infield that it masks the woeful production the Yankees can expect from their current projected outfield of Johnny Damon/Brett Gardner/Melky Cabrera and Xavier Nady. Signing Manny Ramirez would give them a productive left fielder, but would also force Damon/Gardner/Cabrera to play center field. First base is a hole with Giambi gone, unless the Yankees can convince Jorge Posada to remain healthy and move from behind the plate (in which case the Yankees have a hole at catcher). Most of all, though, the Yankees lack any pitching. If the season began today, the Yankees' starting rotation would have fewer than 23 career wins after their ace-- with Chien-Ming Wang followed by Joba Chamberlain, Phillip Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Darrell Rasner (or 15 career wins with Alfredo Aceves). While it's quite possible that Wang and Chamberlain would be a dominant 1-2 combination sufficient to win another division, it doesn't compare to the Rays, Sox, or Jays. They need to add at least two starters, and probably three. If the Yankees don't re-sign Marte, they have no left-handers in the bullpen, so a move would be necessary there as well.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Chien-Ming Wang will be back in 2009, but it's unclear whether he'll have any lingering effects from his lis franc injury. Jorge Posada is coming back from a partially torn labrum that should heal by 2009, but his age has to give the Yankees concern about depending on him for more than about 80 games. Joba Chamberlain's rotator cuff tendinitis ended his season prematurely, which means he may still not be ready to spend a full season in the rotation.

Free agent ceiling: Are you kidding? This is the Yankees. They're not going to sign Mark Teixeira, Manny Ramirez, and C.C. Sabathia, but two out of three isn't even unlikely, let alone implausible.

Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays have already had a busy offseason, raiding other teams 40-man castaways -- including Les Walron (Phillies), Bryan Bullington (Indians), Angel Sanchez (Royals), Kelvin Jimenez (Cardinals), and Adam Loewen (Orioles). Their free agents are mostly insignificant, with only two meaningful players (Burnett and Zaun): A.J. Burnett, Kevin Mench (minor league FA), John Parrish, Shannon Stewart, Brad Wilkerson, Gregg Zaun

Most likely to return: John Parrish may get a minor league deal. The other players are as good as gone.

Most likely to leave: Gregg Zaun was on XM yesterday and sounded as if the Blue Jays were part of the distant past. With a number of teams having holes at catcher, Zaun could fit on a lot of teams -- Florida, San Diego, New York Mets or Yankees, Cincinnati, maybe even Boston. A.J. Burnett is likely to find more money in Baltimore or New York in the near future.

Non-tender candidates:Russ Adams has fallen off the radar, though not off the 40-man roster for the Jays.

Prospect on the rise: Travis Snider made the major leagues at age 20 and will likely stick with the Blue Jays in a DH/LF role in 2009. If he and Adam Lind can produce and the Jays can add a starting pitcher, the Jays have an outside shot at competing for a wild card spot.

Needs: Starting pitching and a middle infielder -- Starting pitching is a must because of the injuries to Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan. While McGowan seems likely to return in early 2009, Marcum is likely out for the season. Halladay, McGowan, and Litsch are solid, but there's little besides David Purcey behind them. The middle infield for the Jays was full of former 4A players for the Indians with Joe Inglett and John McDonald getting a combined 560 plate appearances. Scutaro could be a fill-in at shortstop and Aaron Hill should be back in 2009, but it would make more sense to find another productive infielder. Hill has played shortstop in the past, but was moved because of defensive insufficiency, so it's not clear whether he could stick at short.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Dustin McGowan had surgery to repair a torn labrum in 2008 and is uncertain for spring training in 2009. Shaun Marcum is out for at least most of 2009 after Tommy John surgery. Aaron Hill missed most of 2008 with a concussion, a return to his 2007 form (or better) is essential if the Blue Jays are going to score any runs in 2009.

Free agent ceiling: The Blue Jays would have loved if this offseason had occurred a few months ago, when the Canadian dollar was much stronger against the U.S. Dollar. Now, not so much. They're not likely to compete for the real high-ceiling free agents, but might be able to sign a Derek Lowe or a Ben Sheets.

Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles had a few impressive performances in 2008 -- solid relief pitching from the likes of Jim Johnson and George Sherrill, decent production from Adam "Not Pacman" Jones, good years from Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis and eventually Melvin Mora, and a solid year from Luke Scott. But they still finished as the only team in the AL East to finish below .500, played to sparse crowds at a lot of their home games, and didn't find any young starter who could lock down a rotation spot, with three of their starters finishing the season with ERAs north of 6.00. They now face a few not-so-difficult decisions: Juan Castro, Alex Cintron, Kevin Millar, and Jay Payton are free agents.

Most likely to return: I can't say I'm certain on any of these players. Dave Trembley loves infield defense, so Juan Castro probably has a shot to stick around, since two of the Orioles' other shortstops are minor league free agents. Kevin Millar still seems to be a fan favorite in Baltimore.

Most likely to leave: Jay Payton wanted out last year. He didn't get the opportunity then. He'll get it now.

Non-tender candidates:There's talk that Daniel Cabrera could be non-tendered, but when your number 3-5 starters had 6.00+ ERAs, it's hard to see why the perpetual frustration with Cabrera's control would warrant his release. Hayden Penn was once a top prospect for the O's rotation, but is coming off his third straight season at AAA and hasn't even gotten a September callup since 2006. Then again, he's a pitcher.

Prospect on the rise: Matt Wieters is widely considered one of the top 10 prospects in baseball at this point and could join the team later in 2009. David Hernandez and Chris Tillman both had effective seasons at AA Bowie, and both could figure in the rotation plans for Baltimore in 2009.

Needs: Starting pitching and Shortstop. The Orioles have one major league starter on their roster, and he (Jeremy Guthrie) was a waiver claim 24 months ago. There are a few other potential starters in the system, but without a real veteran presence to guide them, things are likely to be rough for a while. Few teams had so woeful a cast of characters at a position as the 2008 Orioles did at shortstop. Can you name two of the six players who started games at shortstop for the Orioles (without rechecking their list of free agents)? Juan Castro, Freddie Bynum, Luis Hernandez, Alex Cintron, Brandon Fahey, and Eider Torres. I've attended games started by four of that motley crew and couldn't have done any better than two.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Danys Baez is talking about returning after spending the last two years on the DL. Good news for the O's, he wants to be a starter. Chris Ray may rejoin the bullpen after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August 2007, Troy Patton will be back in 2009 after undergoing right labrum surgery that removed him from the Orioles' rotation options. Matt Albers underwent surgery on his own labrum that will hold him back at the outset of 2009, but he may be ready by spring training.

Free agent ceiling: The Orioles had a lot of lows in 2008, including the least attended game in Oriole Park's history (I was there -- Pat Sajak threw out the first pitch), and a spate of injuries to the pitchers that were supposed to compete for rotation spots. But Peter Angelos has been willing to overpay for free agents in the past. Now freed of most of those Jim Duquette contracts, the Orioles may be able to make a play for two local players in Mark Teixiera and A.J. Burnett. I wouldn't expect either to sign with the O's, but they'll be given something to consider.

Scott Eyre re-signs with the Phillies

2008-11-10T18:41:00.000-08:00

Eyre lands $2 million for one year.

Eyre had been a solid left-handed reliever in the past, but fell apart with the Cubs in the early part of 2008, despite keeping walks in check more than he had in the past. He seemed to work well with Rich Dubee and fared well, becoming a reliable part of the Phillies' pen in the latter half of the season and the playoffs. With the Eyre signing, the Phillies' bullpen is pretty well complete -- Lidge, Madson, Durbin, Condrey, Eyre, and Romero are all near certainties in the 'pen, with one spot open for a cast off from the rotation like Adam Eaton/J.A. Happ/Kyle Kendrick or a reclamation prospect like Scott Mathieson or Mike Zagurski (unlikely, since it'd give them three lefties).

Monday Trade Blitz -- Matt Holliday, Huston Street, Scott Olsen, Josh Willingham

2008-11-10T17:57:00.000-08:00

Two deals have purportedly gone down, neither of which makes a whole heck of a lot of sense.

Reported Deal #1
Matt Holliday is traded from the Rockies to the A's for a group of players reportedly including Greg Smith, Carlos Gonzalez, and Huston Street.

Billy Beane does it again, swindling...oh wait. He traded a quality starting pitcher, an average closer, and one of last year's top prospects for a bat that's had one great season away from Coors Field.

Greg Smith was not a great pitcher and unlikely to become one with a marginal K rate. But he was the best starter the A's had in 2008 aside from Duchscherer, whose frequent injuries make him unreliable at best. Carlos Gonzalez had a disappointing 2008, showing little power in Oakland, and Huston Street lost his job as a closer to the astounding debut season of Brad Ziegler. Street's definitely the best player in the deal, considering Gonzalez's woeful OBP and lack of power and Smith's uncertainty, but the package isn't insignificant.

Matt Holliday is a player who's hard to read. His career numbers away from Coors Field are barely better than adequate, although he put up a good OPS last year. But he's a player who has benefited a lot from Coors Field and is now plopped into a potent pitcher's park. Holliday only mustered 25 home runs last year, but he did show a surge of speed (swiping 28 bases in 30 attempts).

Analysis:
The Rockies get the better end of this deal. The Cardinals' deal fell apart, the Phillies seemed an unlikely contender for the deal, and the Rockies get a pitcher who will fill out their rotation, a would-be closer to replace Brian Fuentes (or, more likely, trade bait of their own that could land another major league ready player), and an outfielder who is only a year removed from being one of the Top 25 prospects in major league baseball. The A's get a player who is a good hitter, but may not be much more than good removed from Coors Field, but is guaranteed to be beyond the A's current price range at the end of this season. And with the lineup they have around Holliday and the prospect-dependent pitching staff, the A's seem extraordinarily unlikely to contend for anything this season. Billy Beane is apparently counting on a mighty fine draft pick to come of Matt Holliday when he signs elsewhere.

Reported Deal # 2:
Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham are traded from the Marlins to the Nationals for Emilio Bonifacio, P.J. Dean and possibly infielder Jake Smolinski.

Olsen is probably around a major league average starter, one who represents a relatively substantial upgrade from anyone the Nationals have slotted in their current rotation. His 2007 was a bad season, but 2006 and 2008 were both respectable. He's been a durable starter. Willingham, on the other hand, is a good hitter, but has serious durability issues.

Bonifacio is a light-hitting second baseman who had shown some stolen base prowess in the minors, but didn't flash that kind of ability in his run with the Nationals. He will be little more than a utility man for the Marlins unless they should make a surprising trade of Dan Uggla in the near future. The other players are still unproven, with Baseball America projecting Smolinski as the #11 prospect in the relatively barren Nationals organization (as an outfielder) and Dean as the #30 prospect last season.

Analysis:
I would have thought the Marlins certainly could have gotten more for Olsen -- I had concocted a deal with the Indians to send Kevin Gregg and Scott Olsen to the Tribe for Kelly Shoppach and an outfielder like Franklin Gutierrez, Nick Weglarz, or John Drennen. Instead, they get no one who can play a meaningful role on their team in the next two or three years. Bonifacio may be a useful piece, but he's little more than that.

As improbable as it is that Jim Bowden came out ahead on a deal with Beinfest, the Nationals seem to have fared well here. Olsen is a stabilizing force that gives the Nationals a second solid left-handed starter in their rotation. Willingham is an offensive upgrade from Austin Kearns last year, but a huge defensive regression and his career numbers are roughly equivalent to Kearns' career totals. With Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena under contract in the outfield, a move seems to be imminent, although it's possible that Willingham could move to 1B and fill a substantial hole for the Nationals, who were also rumored to be interested in Adam Dunn (who has expressed his discontent with playing 1B in the past and would almost certainly frown on a deal involving his friend Kearns -- whose contract and injury prone 2008 makes him hard to move anyway). If Willingham can play first, freeing up Ronnie Belliard to play second, the Nationals have a shockingly serviceable lineup until the plague of injuries begins to beset them.

AL Central: Offseason Outlook

2008-11-10T15:58:00.000-08:00

Offseason outlook:
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox were one of the oldest teams in baseball in 2008, and that's not going to change too much in 2009. They're cutting loose a number of injury-prone players and will have an almost entirely new infield from the 2008 opening day lineup. Free agents are Orlando Cabrera, Joe Crede, Ken Griffey Jr., Toby Hall, Horacio Ramirez, and Juan Uribe.

Most Likely To Return: Toby Hall is likely to be re-signed, but couldn't justify the price tag on his option.

Most Likely to Leave: Griffey seems certain to be gone and may have had his career finished because of his prohibitive contract. Joe Crede is almost certainly on his way out, even though Josh Fields didn't show anything in 2008 to warrant a third base job. His promise in 2007 will guarantee that Crede and his bad back will clutter another roster in need of a David Bell clone with more power.

Non-tender candidates: If this were any other team, I'd be surprised to see Dewayne Wise offered a major league contract, though most of Ken Williams' moves over the last few years have been pretty astonishing. Jerry Owens and Brian Anderson seem to duplicate each others' limited skill set and one of them may have worn out his welcome.

Prospect on the rise: Clayton Richard is a near-lock for the rotation, especially while the White Sox are looking to trade Javier Vazquez. Chris Getz may seize the 2B job if the Sox don't resign Orlando Cabrera or Juan Uribe, forcing Alexei Ramirez to SS in 2009. Does Josh Fields still count? He's likely to swat 25 home runs for the White Sox in 2009, play weak defense at third base, and have trouble getting on base, but he's going to play every day.

Needs: Youth. The White Sox will have holes opening at 2B, SS, 3B, had a disaster at 1B with Konerko last year, have the worst defensive RF in the game (and no other place to put him), and an old pitching staff. They need to acquire a versatile infielder to help ensure the infield is in decent shape, since the only guarantee is Alexei Ramirez. Jerry Hairston Jr. would make sense for a team that needs help at all the positions he's played in recent years, though his 2008 is too aberrant for words.

Injuries that figure in 2009: Andrew Sisco will miss much of the year after Tommy John surgery. This is straining the definition of this category.

Free agent ceiling: They may re-sign one of their own, but I don't see the White Sox as major players in the free agent market. Keith Foulke or a Doug Brocail type might make sense.

Minnesota Twins
The Twins smoke and mirrored their way into the playoffs again, only to blow their lead and lose a one-game playoff to the White Haired Sox. The core of the team is unlikely to change much, the only free agents are Eddie Guardado, Nick Punto, Dennys Reyes, Adam Everett.

Most Likely to Return: I feel like Nick Punto is likely to return. I have no basis to conclude this except that he's a Twins kind of player -- not particularly good, but he is white, lacks meaningful tools, and he hustles (Hell, check out his player card on MLB.com -- that looks like the exact reason that idiots like Tim McCarver think the Twins win games). He can't really fill holes at shortstop or third base, but he's an adequate stopgap. I wouldn't be surprised to see any of these guys come back to the Twins.

Most Likely to Leave: Dennys Reyes may have priced himself out of the Twins' plans by being relatively effective and putting up an ERA that looks useful. Eddie Guardado may want to try the weak closer market and see if he can get a contract from a team in need of a closer.

Non-tender candidates: I don't see any.

Prospect on the rise: Again, I'm not seeing much -- the closest thing they have to a player who didn't already make his mark on the majors in 2008 is probably Kevin Mulvey, who pitched relatively well in AAA. Then again, with a rotation that's already full of young arms (Baker, Liriano, Blackburn, Slowey and Perkins all earned their down spots with good seasons in 2008) that's relegated Boof Bonser to long relief, it's hard to see Mulvey serving as much more than middling trade bait to get a bat. Ditto for Phillip Humber, who proved that the Twins got a raw deal in missing out on Mike Pelfrey.

Needs: SS/3B, relief pitching -- The Twins have accepted less offensive production on the left side of their infield for years, it's not likely to change. If the Twins decided they were comfortable with Michael Cuddyer at 3B, they'd be set, but I'd be surprised if they were willing to settle on his defensive weakness paired with Brendan Harris at SS. If Reyes leaves, the Twins need a lefty to pair with Craig Breslow, who almost certainly overachieved last year, and need a bounceback year from Matt Guerrier.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Pat Neshek's torn ulnar collateral ligament put the Twins bullpen in a tough spot, with Neshek's role falling on Matt Guerrier. He's expected to return for spring training and should be ready to go by opening day. Michael Cuddyer had an injury-plagued 2008 and that may have contributed to his ineffectiveness. If he's healthy, it could be a big turnaround for the club.

Free agent ceiling: Because the Twins aren't really overrun with needs, their ceiling is likely very low. A middle reliever -- be it Reyes, Doug Brocail (who the Twins will almost certainly not sign because of his type A status), or some equivalent -- is probably their biggest investment.

Cleveland Indians

The Indians dealt their two most meaningful free agents and got an embarrassment of not-immediately-helpful riches in return. Though it's not likely the team is building around Matt LaPorta and Carlos Santana just yet, those players are likely to influence the Tribe's strategy in 2009, while the club is waiting out Dellucci's contract and making a final decision on Andy Marte. The free agents for the club are Juan Rincon, Brendan Donnelly, Scott Elarton, Sal Fasano.

Most Likely to Return: None of these guys is likely to surface again, although it wouldn't be astonishing for Elarton to return after missing much of the season with a non-baseball injury or medical condition that the Indians didn't disclose. Most likely to leave: Juan Rincon is as good as gone after showing no real ability to come through in the bullpen last year. Fasano doesn't fit the roster with a surplus of catching, but may get a minor league deal to work out with the club in hopes of catching on elsewhere.Non-tender candidates: Josh Barfield may have run out his opportunities with the Tribe, having accomplished nothing in his two year tenure. While he may have some residual trade value, the Indians might elect to watch him leave rather than risk losing a Jordan Brown or Chuck Lofgren to the Rule 5 draft. Zach Jackson seemed a lock to be non-tendered when he was acquired, but a couple decent starts at the end of September mean he's likely to compete for a starting spot with Jeremy Sowers and Aaron Laffey.

Prospect on the rise: Adam Miller has been on the radar for what seems like a decade for the Indians, but has been beset by injuries. Next year, he's going to have to make the major league roster and hang on as a 12th man in the bullpen, because his options are gone. Or, more likely, he'll find his way onto the 60-day DL. John Meloan may play a meaningful role in the bullpen for the Tribe, though Eric Wedge didn't show him many opportunities in September. Carlos Santana will likely play a few games in September after scoring a .999 OPS as a catcher in high A ball last season.

Needs: Relief pitching, third base, a seasoned starter, and production from corner outfield spots and DH. The Tribe's bullpen regressed way past the mean last year as Borowski imploded, Betancourt went from elite to little more than a 4A pitcher -- due in no small part to a career high in walks, and Kobayashi folded in high pressure situations. By June, the bullpen, Sabathia's April struggles, and injuries to Carmona and Westbrook had already sunk a team that many expected to go to the World Series. Although Miller and Meloan may fill out the right-handed side of the bullpen, the Indians need a left-hander to pair with Rafael Perez who may see closing opportunities. Jeremy Affeldt would make a lot of sense. Third base has been a stopgap position since Travis Fryman, that's unlikely to change in the offseason, though the Indians may overpay to get Casey Blake back. The Indians aren't likely to invest in corner outfielders or DH competitors, so the improvement will have to come in. You can rest assured that Milton Bradley won't be joining the Tribe, even though his skill set seems ideal for a team lacking in meaningful pop against left-handed pitching.

Injuries that figure in 2009: Carmona struggled through injuries to his hip in 2008, but should be ready to go in 2009. Jake Westbrook may miss the entire 2009 season, but should be available at mid-season after Tommy John surgery that ruined a season that looked extremely optimistic.Free agent ceiling: Orlando Hudson is probably a high-end projection for the Indians, who have shown reluctance to spend money on free agents in the past. Mark Shapiro has already mentioned Casey Blake and has chased Trevor Hoffman in the past. It's possible that the Indians could get involved in the bidding for Brian Fuentes or Francisco Rodriguez if the market response is considerably more tepid than the current forecast. Chad Cordero would be a good match, but is likely Anaheim-bound.

Kansas City Royals
The Royals are going in the wrong direction, and Dayton Moore may yet make Allard Baird look like a wizard. The free agent blows will be minimal, since only Mark Grudzielanek is a free agent.

Most likely to return: None. (This neglects the obvious fact that Grudzielanek, as a member of a class of one is in fact most likely to return. I just don't think they're re-signing him.)

Most likely to leave: Mark Grudzielanek -- he's the very definition of serviceable -- as I'd suspected, his OPS+ was a flawless 100. He's probably done in Kansas City to make room for Esteban German, Alberto Callaspo, Tony Pena, and the impressive Mike Aviles to fill two jobs.

Non-tender candidates: It's hard to envision who the Royals would non-tender, since there's so many players who seem plausible. So...let's start. Shane Costa, Joey Gathright, Tony Pena, Ross Gload, Jason Smith, Luke Hudson, Brandon Duckworth, and Ryan Braun.

Prospect on the rise: Kila Ka'ahuie has had a pretty significant rise in the Royals' plans, but the Jacobs acquisition means he's likely to be a part-time player at best and is ticketed for lovely Omaha. Let me once again say it. Dayton Moore is an idiot. Idiot idiot idiot. Mitch Maier seems to be a perennial prospect and is on the Justin Huber track to have the Royals' organization kill his career in favor of middling players like Joey Gathright and the $10 million Jose Guillen, but he may get a shot.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: None that I can see. Carlos Rosa's elbow soreness gives you some cause for alarm, but he's not likely a 2009 rotation candidate anyway.

Needs: Hey, how about a competent first baseman? Too late. Pitching (especially relief pitching) and catcher are needs, though the Royals are apparently content with the dreadful Miguel Olivo as a starting catcher. The starting pitching available on the free agent market isn't likely to upgrade from the Royals' available options, so they're likely to stand pat or add a few minor pieces to the bullpen, which is still a complete mess before Soria.

Free agent ceiling: A low-ceiling starter lost in the mix -- like Randy Wolf -- might be lured to pitch in Kansas City, but the Royals will have to substantially overpay to make it happen. Guillermo Mota, Dennys Reyes, Doug Brocail, maybe even Brandon Lyon could figure in the Royals' bullpen. I wouldn't hold my breath, Royals fan(s).

Detroit Tigers
It takes chutzpah to make the deal of a lifetime to acquire a huge bat like Miguel Cabrera and get Dontrelle Willis thrown in as a throw away and then find a way to lose to the Kansas City Royals. Having absolutely no pitching was the key, and the Tigers should be on pace for more of the same in 2009. Kyle Farnsworth, Casey Fossum, Freddy Garcia, Todd Jones, Edgar Renteria, and Vance Wilson are all free agents.

Most likely to return: Freddy Garcia chose to sign with the Tigers in the hopes of restarting his major league career. He wasn't awful, so it'd be surprising to see the pitching-starved Tigers wave goodbye. He wasn't that good either, so it's unlikely he's going to see 7 figure deals heading his way from anyone else.

Most likely to leave: The ink on Edgar Renteria's ticket out of Detroit is pretty well dry. He isn't a great candidate for any team, his impatience has finally caught up to him, and his inability to steal bases has stripped him of much of his perceived residual value. Todd Jones is retiring, but that doesn't really count as "leaving," per se. Most of the Tigers' pitchers didn't do anything last year and they are still Tigers pitchers.

Non-tender candidates: Nate Robertson may be a candidate to be set loose, but the Tigers are so pitching-starved that they're unlikely to kick him to the curb just yet.

Prospect on the rise: Jeff Larish is likely to get major league playing time at first base, third base, and DH. He's not going to produce much more than a Ryan Garko type, but that would be enough to justify including him in the Tigers' lineup. Rick Porcello is on the radar, but with the Tigers looking unlikely to contend, there's no need to rush him.

Needs: starting pitching, relief pitching, catching, shortstop. Bonderman and Verlander will be okay again at some point and Armando Galarraga was quite good in 2008. That still leaves the tigers at least one starter short, even if Zach Miner pays off. The Tigers have no one to fill the catching spot and their only experienced catcher is a free agent. The bullpen is dependent on injury-plagued vets like Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney and has no depth whatsoever. Catching is a void, shortstop is likely to be Brandon Inge unless the Tigers make some sort of move to fill the position.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Macay McBride is coming off Tommy John surgery and will miss part of 2009, Joel Zumaya continues to struggle with a litany of injuries, and Jeremy Bonderman needs to show he's recovered from arm surgery. Gary Sheffield's shoulder may also be a factor, since his contract is simply too large to move to anyone.

Free agent ceiling: I don't think the Tigers are signing any major league free agents bigger than maybe a Gregg Zaun.

NL East: Offseason Outlook

2008-11-07T05:07:00.000-08:00

Offseason outlook:
Philadelphia Phillies
I'll start with the 2008 World Champions, since I still can't believe that's a description of the Phillies, and because it's the team I'm the major league club I'm most familiar with (through little more than proximity). The Phillies have a few free agents on their roster. Jamie Moyer, Pat Burrell, Scott Eyre, So Taguchi, Tom Gordon, Rudy Seanez, and Taduhito Iguchi are all in a position to leave the club.

Most likely to return: Moyer is a near lock, given that his other real hope would be to return to the Mariners, who really need to get younger and turn their team around. Burrell was given a blow-off with the 2 year, $22 million offer, so although I was confident he'd be back, I no longer feel that the Phillies have a genuine interest in keeping him.

Most likely to leave: Taguchi can't offer the Phillies anything, having failed as a defensive replacement and been replaced by Eric Bruntlett in the regular season and the playoffs. He's probably done as a major leaguer and rumors have already begun that he'll be in Japan next year.

Prospect on the rise: Maybe it's just me, but I would be extremely surprised to see Lou Marson open the season in the minor leagues. He showed a solid bat at Reading (.849 OPS) and it makes sense to get him major league experience while the team still has its core intact, lest you need him to contribute from day one. It's certainly possible that the Phillies put him in AAA in the '09 season and keep Coste at the # 2 spot, and even possible that the Phillies simply carry Coste as a super sub who can fill in at catcher, first base, third base, or the corner outfield spots, but Manuel's not shown a willingness to carry three catchers. The only other prospects I envision seeing in Philadelphia are Jason Donald (Sept. '09 -- earlier if a middle infielder gets injured), Carrasco

Non-tender candidates: Chris Coste. I hope it's not going to happen, but Charlie Manuel made it abundantly clear he favored Ruiz, starting him in every playoff game. With Marson in the wings, a 35-year-old backup catcher is relatively expendable, even if he's a better hitter than most. There may be a trade market for Coste, who would seemingly fit in well with a number of clubs, particularly the Reds, but I feel that if a trade doesn't get done, Coste will probably be non-tendered.

Needs: Pat Burrell? The team needs a right-handed hitting outfielder, though they're unlikely to shell out much for one since they're locked in to a big contract with Geoff Jenkins and still have Matt Stairs under contract for next year. Best case for the Phillies is that Stairs elects to retire, but if he's thinking about it, he's not saying so. That'd free up a roster spot that could be used for a right-handed platoon option to pair with Jenkins, if the Phillies do let Burrell walk. If they fill it from within, they're counting on Greg Golson to develop as a hitter in a hurry.

The Phillies could use a dependable starting pitcher, but have a lot of # 6 starter types and there's always the lingering possibility that Madson gets moved into the rotation. Short of Derek Lowe falling through every crack or some way-below-market deal for an injury prone pitcher like Ben Sheets, it's unlikely the Phillies land another starter to join Kendrick/Happ/Eaton in the mix. Carlos Carrasco is on the horizon, so it probably makes sense to let Happ/Kendrick try to show what they can and give Carrasco a shot at mid-season if the available options aren't there.

Injuries that figure in 2009: The Phillies' bullpen has a lot more options returning because Scott Mathieson and Mike Zagurski both missed the entire 2008 season with injuries. Zagurski gives them the winner of the Scott Eyre-lookalike contest, Mathieson has long been a prospect in the organization, but has been beset by injuries. Pedro Feliz missed time with a balky back in the late season, and that isn't likely an injury we've heard the last from.

Free agent ceiling: The Phillies have made loads of extra money from the playoff run, but aren't likely to be a big player on the free agent market given the arbitration raises that will go to Ryan Howard and others. Their top free agent target would likely be a Pat Burrell/Adam Dunn type in the range of $13-14 million a season, and the Phillies have already shown a reluctance to pay that much. There are rumors that the Phillies are interested in Manny Ramirez, but I really have a hard time giving them any credence, and I don't think Manny Ramirez would be content to play in Philadelphia in any event.

New York Mets
The Mets fell short again in 2007, despite bringing in the second-best pitcher in baseball, only to get eclipsed by the team that acquired the best pitcher in baseball (I'm passing the torch). The Mets are an old team, but they face a lot of potential changes in 2009, with a large number of free agents: Oliver Perez, Moises Alou, Luis Ayala, Damion Easley, Tony Armas, Orlando Hernandez, Pedro Martinez, Ramon Martinez, Ricardo Rincon, Al Reyes, Trot Nixon, Brady Clark and Matt Wise.

Most likely to return: Oliver Perez was relatively reliable for the Mets, is going to be pretty pricey on the open market and has a questionable Type A status that would cause 15 teams to lose a first round pick to sign an erratic starter. I'd guess that Easley is probable to return as well.

Most likely to leave: Everybody else. The Mets may hold on to Luis Ayala, who they trusted for about a week after acquiring him, but most of the free agents are guys who missed much (or all) of last season or didn't play a meaningful role in 2008.

Prospect on the rise: Daniel Murphy made a significant splash in 2008 as the Mets tried to push their way to the playoffs with a makeshift outfield. He's likely to start in 2009 at either left field or second base. Jon Niese is likely to crash the Mets' rotation, but didn't fare well in his cameo. Fernando Martinez is still on the horizon, but doesn't seem like a major factor in the Mets' hopes for 2009.

Non-tender candidates: For legal reasons, Ambiorix Burgos may get non-tendered, but I'd doubt it, considering what the Mets gave up for him. Not a non-tender, but a release, might be the situation facing Luis Castillo, but, again, considering the Mets' financial commitment, they should probably keep Castillo around in case Murphy doesn't transition to second successfully.

Needs: Corner outfielders, second base, starting pitching and relief pitching. The Mets need everything that's not Johan Santana, Carlos Beltran, David Wright, Jose Reyes, and possibly Carlos Delgado (who sure looked finished until late May) and Ryan Church (who looked solid in RF when he played, which wasn't all that often). They could use a better catching tandem as well, but aren't likely to move there with the glut of needs they already have.

Injuries that figure in 2009: John Maine's shoulder may determine whether the Mets have a solid rotation in 2009. Santana is still dominating, Mike Pelfrey put together a strong season, and Oliver Perez could return as a free agent, giving the Mets a decent trio of starters, but if John Maine can get healthy and stay healthy, the Mets are infinitely more likely to contend for a playoff berth in 2006. Billy Wagner is out for '09 and has likely finished his Mets career.

Free agent ceiling: Simply put, there isn't one. While there are organizational reasons that the Mets would likely not chase C.C. Sabathia and pursue Manny Ramirez or Francisco Rodriguez (read either: the Mets are a poorly run organization or Minaya's renowned bias for Latin players), the Mets have money to spend and will clear $26 million off their books next year just through Orlando Hernandez, Moises Alou, and Pedro Martinez leaving or accepting considerably less money to return.

Florida Marlins
The Marlins have only a few major league free agents (and no real minor league FAs of note): Luis Gonzalez, Mark Hendrickson, Paul LoDuca, and Arthur Rhodes.

Most likely to return: LoDuca is unlikely to have any other suitors, so he may stay afloat with a minor league deal in Florida. I wouldn't hold my breath that any will return.

Most likely to leave: Rhodes was effective enough that he'll have one more year in the majors, but as a free agent who will be paid in real dollars, it seems pretty unlikely that it'd be in Florida.

Prospect on the rise: Cameron Maybin may be destined for the centerfield job this year, a year after most people thought he'd find his way into the Marlins' lineup. He showed he was ready in September and will certainly be a hyped rookie of the year candidate in 2009. Gaby Sanchez is now the heir apparent to the first base job with Jacobs shipped out. Brett Carroll is another hitter on the verge of the majors, but will likely only get a shot if Maybin fails to land a job.

Non-tender candidates: The Marlins will likely move several candidates for arbitration, including Kevin Gregg and Scott Olsen. If they can't find trading partners, I'd say there's about a 30-40% chance they'd non-tender Kevin Gregg, with whom they grew dissatisfied in the latter half of last year. But, this being baseball, where there's perpetually a need for anyone who's saved games with any success (and Gregg was superb until about a week before the All-Star break), the scenario is unlikely to present itself. Gregg's probably bound for Detroit, St. Louis, Cleveland, or even conceivably the NY Mets, Olsen will go to whoever the Marlins feel offers the best return (the Rangers have been mentioned numerous times, but I could see a package from the Indians centered around Kelly Shoppach and a corner outfielder (possibly Franklin Gutierrez) that would brnig back Olsen and Gregg.)

Needs: Catching and relief pitching, possibly another outfielder. Adding Leo Nunez gives the Marlins another young reliever to throw at the wall in the hopes that someone will stick, but it's still a bullpen composed of young and inexperienced relievers like Matt Lindstrom, Joe Nelson, and Renyel Pinto as the grizzled veterans. Adding a David Weathers or Jeremy Affeldt type would be the kind of move that would really make this a dangerous team, but is unlikely. The catching in Florida was a hole in 2008, although John Baker proved a useful Chris Coste-like stopgap who brutalized the Phillies last season. The Marlins have a couple prospects in CF in Maybin and Carroll that should keep them from using Cody Ross or Alfredo Amezaga as an everyday CF, but I wouldn't rule out acquiring another outfielder who could play in the corners.

Injuries that figure in 2009: Anibal Sanchez came back from labrum surgery in 2009, but never showed much effectiveness or durability. His continued recovery is the key to the rotation. Josh Johnson's rapid recovery from Tommy John was impressive, but he needs to maintain his effectiveness. Josh Willingham has been injury prone during his time in the majors, and he will need to stay healthy to keep Cody Ross from having to play left field every day -- which is a best case scenario asssuming that Maybin can hold the CF job.

Free agent ceiling: Casey Blake would be about as highly rated a player as I could envision the Marlins pursuing, and even that's something of a stretch. That said, they did sign Hanley Ramirez to a long-term deal, and Blake would be a useful player in LF, RF, 3B, and 1B for a team that's got question marks at those spots.

Atlanta Braves
The mish-mash of Braves' free agents has a couple hall of famers and an assorted cast of journeymen: Elmer Dessens, Tom Glavine, Mike Hampton, Jorge Julio, Corky Miller, Greg Norton, Will Ohman, John Smoltz, Julian Tavarez

Most likely to return: John Smoltz seems the most likely to return since he's played in Atlanta his entire career. If he returns, I'd believe it'd be to the Braves, since the Tigers aren't likely to make a play for his services a year after finishing last in the AL Central. Will Ohman is a valuable reliever and I'd guess the Braves will make a play to keep him, but he may find more money elsewhere after an 83-appearance season in Atlanta.

Most likely to leave: Dessens would be an obvious choice, but not even rabid Braves fans likely noticed his 4 game stint with the Braves, so my pick is Tavarez, who will probably have to settle for a bottom of the line contract from a bottom-budget team after getting rocked by both right and left-handed batters in 2008. He'll probably muster a minor league contract from a club like the Pirates or Royals who are trying to build bullpens on the cheap, but not much in the way of major league interest.

Prospect on the rise: Tommy Hanson is one of the most talked-about minor league prospects right now, and his name keeps surfacing around Peavy discussions as a player Frank Wren won't deal for Peavy. He is probably a year away, but with Brent Lillibridge and Jordan Schafer losing their footing in 2008, it's hard to see another Brave who's going to make an impact in 2009.

Non-tender candidates: I'm not seeing any.

Needs: Healthy arms and an outfielder with power. For as bad as the Braves were in 2008, they've actually proven to have a good offensive strategy outside of Jeff Francouer. Gregor Blanco hit a lousy .251, but still mustered an OBP of .366. Yunel Escobar batted .288 with an OBP of .366, and the Braves ended up 5th in the majors with an OBP of .354, and their power wasn't dreadful (slg. of .408, 20th in the majors). But for a team with no power, the Braves were astonishingly unable to steal bases (58 in 85 attempts, 28th in the majors). That doesn't lead to run production. The Braves need at least two starters behind Jair Jurrjens, Tim Hudson, and Jorge Campillo.

Injuries that figure in 2009: Smoltz and Glavine may not be able to pitch anywhere in 2009 because of injuries, but if they can, it'd probably be in Atlanta (Glavine has said he wouldn't pitch anywhere else). Chipper Jones was limited for much of last season by shoulder tendinitis, and with his history of injuries, it's hard to imagine it's the last time we've heard of this injury. Unless Kotchman really shows up, Chipper may be playing first base by the end of 2009.

Free agent ceiling: There's rumors floating around that Rafael Furcal may be on the horizon for the Braves. I could see them spending that kind of money, but Furcal would make little sense for a team that's loaded with serviceable/borderline-starter middle infielders like Omar Infante, Martin Prado, Yunel Escobar, and Kelly Johnson. I could see the Braves making a play for Ryan Dempster, Ben Sheets, Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, or Bobby Abreu.

Washington Nationals
The Nationals began their free agency period early by attempting to option a number of players to AAA: Chad Cordero, Pete Orr, Ryan Wagner, and Ryan Langerhans. Odalis Perez and Aaron Boone are the only players listed as major league free agents.

Most likely to return: Odalis Perez may be hard-pressed to find a multi-year deal anywhere else, considering how he performed after signing his deal in Los Angeles. While he could probably find one-year deals

Most likely to leave: Cordero's obviously gone and would make a lot of sense for teams like Cleveland or St. Louis, who need bullpen help, but don't want to pay for Brian Fuentes or Francisco Rodriguez. Cordero's not of the same caliber and has some injury questions, but he's been mostly successful in his career and will probably be available at some point in 2009. He's not a player to depend upon, but he could be a useful player to cushion the blow if closers like Jensen Lewis or Chris Perez falter.

Prospect on the rise: Ross Detwiler is still likely a ways from the Majors after playing last year at A ball, but the Nationals have pushed him into the Majors before (for one appearance in September 2007). He could enter the mix for the rotation and, with Balester, give the Nationals a pair of meaningful prospects. Roger Bernadina is hardly a top-end prospect, but he's got a good shot to take over an outfield spot and lead off for the Nationals in 2009. If he doesn't, DC-area native Justin Maxwell may very well win the job. Neither has much of a chance to produce big numbers in the majors, but this is the best Washington's system has. Luke Montz may get a shot to back up Jesus Flores in 2009, but isn't likely to do much more than Wil Nieves.

Non-tender candidates: The Nationals are cutting ties with Chad Cordero, having already announced their intention to non-tender the team's longest tenured player. As much as they no longer wish to pay Austin Kearns or Wily Mo Pena, they're locked into the contracts now.

Needs: Starting pitching, relief pitching, first base, second base, a corner outfielder who can stay healthy. The saddest thing is that I'm surprised it's this few positions. The Nationals got better than expected production from Cristian Guzman, who's still likely to suffer injuries in 2009 but were snakebit with injuries to Ryan Zimmerman and Lastings Milledge. The pitching cupboard isn't bare with John Lannan and the occasionally effective Colin Balester, but only Lannan's a lock for the 2009 rotation. That's never a good sign.

Injuries that figure in 2009: To be announced. With Cristian Guzman and Austin Kearns penciled into the lineup, it's a matter of time. Nick Johnson is expected to miss 2009 with a hangnail, after missing 2008 with a torn ulnar ligament in his wrist.

Free agent ceiling: Adam Dunn is exactly what Jim Bowden looks for -- a former Cincinnati Red. There's been talk of Dunn joining the Nats since his best friend (Austin Kearns) was traded in '06, and with the apparently tepid response to him in the July trade market and now in the rumor mill, it is completely plausible that he could end up in Washington if he thinks they'll leave him in LF.

Adding insult to OBP injury...

2008-11-03T19:05:00.000-08:00

The Royals exercised a $2.7 million option on OBP black hole Miguel Olivo today, adding a .278 OBP to the mix of the disastrous Jose Guillen and Mike Jacobs.

Dayton Moore may yet prove himself to be the second coming of Allard Baird.

Word from XM Radio (I've yet to verify it with any online source) is that a few days after rumors surfaced of Pat Burrell rejecting a 2-year, $22 million offer from the Philadelphia Phillies, Burrell has sacked his agent and replaced him with a Philadelphia-based agent. Is this a sign that he blames his agent for the low-ball offer? A sign that he really wants to stay in Philadelphia? Or is there actually a meaningful sports agent who works out of the city of Brotherly Carjackings? The Ghost of Mark McCormack works in mysterious ways, but if Pat Burrell is moving on from the club, Philly fans at least owe him a debt of gratitude for not hiring Drew Rosenhaus.

Mike Jacobs for Leo Nunez -- breakdown

2008-11-03T18:09:00.000-08:00

Last week gave us the first activity of the offseason, the Marlins-Royals swap that leaves the Royals with yet another defensively deficient first baseman who can't get on base and the Marlins with a right-handed reliever who has everything they look in a player (read: he is not arbitration-eligible and has fully functioning use of at least one arm).

For Jacobs, it's not hard to see why the Royals acquired him at first glance. His 32 home runs would have led the Royals by a wide margin (2nd would be Jose Guillen with 20) and he bats left-handed, which should help the Royals improve on their abominable 39-63 (.382) record against right-handed pitching. Their record against lefties was, astonishingly, 36-24 (.600), the second best in the AL behind the Angels. However, on second glance, it becomes very hard to explain why the Royals would acquire Jacobs. His OBP of .299 now gives them a likely 4-5 combination of Jacobs (.299 OBP) and Guillen (.300 OBP). With batters like that at the heart of your order, there's no need for a #5 guy, since he'll only be hitting solo home runs anyway.

The Royals are acquiring a home run-hitting first baseman with a lousy glove who hits right-handers, but not lefties (.235/.275/.414 lifetime -- his numbers in 2008 were worse in all three categories) and gets on base so little than even after 32 home runs, he finishes with an OPS of .813. Although Jacobs bats left-handed, the most likely prospect to fill the role, Kila Ka'aihue, also bats left-handed. The next most likely candidate, Ryan Shealy, although a right-handed better, has historically smacked right-handed pitching to the tune of a .307/.363/.481 line. Shealy is similarly baffled by lefties (.179/.266/.298), but seems to be a viable (and cheap) platoon candidate with Ka'aihue, if the Royals had wanted to set a platoon. With Alex Gordon, Mark Teahen, and Billy Butler also all available to play first base, the Royals had plenty of options at a position where none of their options are particularly good. Shealy and Butler would be a fine platoon and likely cost about $5 million less than Jacobs will after arbitration.

And, as bad as Billy Butler is defensively, his numbers actually compare favorably to Mike Jacobs'. Last year, Jacobs finished the season with a zone rating of .770 and a fielding percentage of .988. Butler has a zone rating of .865 and a fielding percentage of .992 with a marginally lower range factor.So the only thing the Royals get is someone who has historically hit more home runs. But Kauffman Stadium was even less hospitable to the long ball than Pro Player last year. And Jacobs has never shown this kind of propensity for home runs before, setting aside his freak debut season that looks a lot like Billy Butler in his debut season. So it's definitely not a victory for the Royals.

Nunez had a lot of clean sheets in his time as a pitcher with the Royals last year and finished the season with respectable numbers. What is harder to explain is his tendency to get lit up. He allowed 16 earned runs in 48 1/3 innings last year, but allowed 3 earned runs in 4 different appearances, allowing 1 run in 2 appearances and 2 in another. Despite having a hard fastball, he doesn't have the ability to strike out hitters that you really need out of a reliever, mustering only 26 Ks. This also leads to Nunez being beaten in his counts, with batters hitting .189 against Nunez after he's got them at 0-2, which isn't great, but isn't particularly bad either. Nunez doesn't give a lot of free passes (roughly 1 for every three innings), but without the ability to end an at bat, he's a pitch-to-contact reliever that is going to be relying on some exceptionally spotty defense behind him with Cantu, Uggla, and Hanley Ramirez in the projected '09 Marlins infield.But there's no precedent for this success -- Nunez was horrid in his first season with the Royals, and has improved since. Last season, he had a significant regression in walks, but gave up fewer hits in exchange.So I don't feel like the Marlins get a real prize. They get a spotty reliever with a dynamite fastball but no ability to get key strikeouts. He's still only 25, so maybe the Marlins feel he's a valuable project to help build a bridge to whoever will be closing games for the Marlins next year, but he's far from a sure thing.

By way of introduction...

2008-11-03T18:05:00.000-08:00

I am completely uninformed and have no connection whatsoever to anyone who could be classed as an insider. I am perpetually indebted to a number of sources that I will depend on in order to offer my own uninformed analysis -- including Tim Dierkes' masterpiece http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/, http://www.baseball-reference.com/, www.sports.yahoo.com/mlb (which keeps batter vs. pitcher stats since 1987 and runs fantasy sports that are vastly more user-friendly -- in my opinion -- than the alternatives), http://www.fangraphs.com/ (the home of publicly accessible BABIP), and begrudgingly http://www.espn.go.com/, which despite its many deficiencies, does at least give me the opportunity to find stats like zone rating and pitches per plate appearance.

I'm generally fluent with baseball statistics but am not exactly a master of the unknown (see VORP). I only offer one statistic of my own that I think will be of any usefulness, which is MOPS -- oddly enough not a statistic for clean-up hitters. (Oh yeah, there will be bad jokes. Yeah, I know.)

MOPS is not-all-that-short for modified OPS, which is calculated by adding the number of stolen bases to the player's number of total bases and adding one at bat for each caught stealing. MOPS tries to roughly calculate (albeit in a clumsy fashion) the value of base stealing while simultaneously punishing those students of Bill Doran who get caught at high rates. While it certainly overvalues individual stolen bases by turning singles into doubles, I've yet to really contemplate what the appropriate modifier would be -- my gut says somewhere between 2/3 and 3/4 of a base, such that a single + stolen base would be a slugging quotient of 1.7. I generally don't use MOPS unless the person in question is a significant base stealer or pickoff victim, but it's bound to crop up when the Brewers decide to re-up Mike Cameron (which, incidentally just happened, despite the Brewers' apparent willingness to deal Prince Fielder once he costs something approaching the $10 million they're wasting on Cameron) or some such event.

Second Season Sports is coming...

2008-10-30T11:08:00.000-07:00

This blog will be devoted to the second season of whatever sports I care to follow at any given time. With baseball just reaching its offseason, expect to see a lot of transaction analysis until I get bored or too busy.