The St. Louis Cardinals signed left-handed reliever Trever Miller, recently of the AL Champion Tampa Bay Rays. The Cardinals were in the market for left-handed relief pitching, though given the disastrous performance of nearly all in the St. Louis bullpen, it's odd that they're focused so heavily on left-handers.
Miller was adequate for the Rays, with a 4.15 ERA in 2008, but is really a one-out pitcher, given his right-handed split (7.50 ERA, 20 H, 10 BB, 14 K in 18 IP against RHB). Against lefties, he allowed only 19 H and 10 BB in 25.1 IP, while also striking out 30.
This isn't a move that I think represents much of an upgrade for the Cardinals, but it's not likely to be a particularly expensive deal either. The present left-handed options were Tyler Johnson (decent in 2007, missed 2008 with rotator cuff surgery), Randy Flores (who walked more batters than he struck out in 2008 and compiled a BAA of .314 against lefties and .316 against right-handed batters), and Jaime Garcia, whose numbers are too incidental and small in size to warrant mention.
If Tyler Johnson can post his 2007 numbers again, I think he'll probably have a better season than Trever Miller. But for a manager who manages like Tony LaRussa and uses pitchers for as many 0 inning appearances or 1/3 inning appearances, I'm sure Miller appears to play a valuable role. I'd have pushed harder for a Dennys Reyes, though, who has a lot more positive upside (or even Alan Embree, who got hit last year, but has strung together a lot of good seasons. Miller is still a pitcher who's had two career seasons with a WHIP under this season's 1.36 (2004, 2006). If that's what he has to offer, the Cardinals might have done well to wait and sign Mike Lincoln.
Cardinals' bullpen:
CL Chris Perez
RHP Ryan Franklin
RHP Jason Motte
LHP Trever Miller
RHP Kyle McClellan
LHP Tyler Johnson
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Crisp for Ramirez trade; what it means for Mark Teahen; Mike Mussina retires
Deal: The Boston Red Sox trade Coco Crisp to the Kansas City Royals for right-handed relief pitcher Ramon Ramirez.
Analysis:
Seriously, Dayton Moore, i understand that with the death of Fire Joe Morgan, there's a lack of humor in all of our baseball-related lives. But that's no reason to keep making 99% of the baseball world laugh themselves to sleep, grateful that they're not Royals fans.
The Kansas City Royals made another trade, dealing another relief pitcher for another bat. Once again, the Royals traded a pitcher who may be at a value peak, but the return is nothing spectacular. Now there is talk that the Royals are in the market to acquire relief pitching, but their only trade pieces are the players that the first two trades have now made superflous, giving other teams little reason to pay much for them.
Crisp is a serviceable player, who will hit between .270-300 with an OBP between .320-.350. He has 15-20 home run potential and could probably steal 30 bases as an everyday player. But he's not a major offensive producer and regressed badly in Boston, where he mustered OPS+ of 77, 83, and 93 in his three seasons. But the Red Sox apparently regarded him as a luxury with the equally underwhelming, but more stolen base-prone Jacoby Ellsbury roaming in center field.
In exchange for Crisp, who will now likely lead off for the on-base and slugging-starved Royals, the Red Sox got Ramon Ramirez, a three-pitch reliever (fastball, changeup, slider) who has had two solid seasons in the majors and one disastrous one (2007), but has also been traded three times in his brief career. Ramirez fared well in 2006 and 2008, but his success in 2008 was due in no small part (as Dave Cameron notes on fangraphs) on an extremely low home run rate. Moving out of Kauffman Stadium, a pitcher-friendly venue even for the home team that's not pitching to the Royals, into Fenway Park will not help Ramirez on that count.
The Red Sox didn't get much in return for Crisp, who ended up being a substantial player for the 2008 squad because of Jacoby Ellsbury's impatience at the plate and late-season struggles, but they did get rid of a sizable contract for a part-time player and got someone who is at least going to be a replacement-level reliever that the Red Sox can use in lieu of a Mike Timlin. And yes, it means Justin Masterson might be able to make the move to the rotation, but as we've seen with Papelbon in 2007 and Clay Buchholz in 2008, things don't always go as planned in that rotation.
And I think the Red Sox got the better end of the deal, in any event. The Royals made a trade that's not bad, they got the better of the two players -- or at least the player who is a safer projection as the better of the two. But they also acquired a player who basically requires another move to be made. They have now added another outfielder to a mix that already had three guaranteed starters in Mark Teahen, David DeJesus, and Jose Guillen. Teahen's name has been in trade discussions and rumors -- with potential suitors being identified (falsely, apparently) as the Indians (who were, again, apparently falsely rumored to be willing to part with Ben Francisco, Franklin Gutierrez, or Trevor Crowe to get Teahen to play third) and the Cubs. But now, by acquiring a center fielder that will move DeJesus to left to suit the Royals' desires, they also put Mark Teahen on an obvious trade block. There's no room at DH, where the Royals already have a mess of players led by Billy Butler and, if Trey Hillman is an active observer of the game, Mike Jacobs -- a more woeful first baseman than the woeful Butler. They still have Ryan Shealy, Kiia Ka'ahuie, and theoretically Ross Gload.
They now basically have to move Mark Teahen in a trade or convince him to make another position change -- this time to second base, where he wouldn't be much worse defensively than the Royals' current leading option -- Esteban German. And there's little reason to believe he can bring back much in a trade when 1) other teams know he's worthless dead weight to the Royals and 2) he's not a particularly valuable player (91 OPS+ as a right fielder in 2008), he's really more of a poor man's Casey Blake because of the 1B/3B/RF position versatility -- a role that I think we can all agree is already filled by a readily-available free agent: Casey Blake.
Projected Royals' lineup:
LF DeJesus
SS Aviles
3B Gordon
RF Guillen
1B Jacobs
DH Butler
C Olivo/Buck
CF Crisp
2B German/Callaspo
Note: This presupposes that the Royals are observant enough to note that DeJesus' OBP warrants him being a leadoff batter. Deep down, I think we'll see Coco Crisp leading off and DeJesus dropping to third, plus a regression to the mean that will see Mike Aviles fall to 8th or 9th in the lineup. Keep in mind that Aviles' career minor league numbers fall well short in nearly every category of the numbers he posted in Kansas City last year.
In other news...
Mike Mussina has apparently decided to retire after his first 20-win season. Mussina had an impressive year in 2008, and even one that looked relatively sustainable, since so much of his success was attributable to a remarkable ability to avoid walks (31 BB in 200.1 IP), but it seems likely that the Yankees weren't counting on Mussina as a linchpin for their rotation.
Analysis:
Seriously, Dayton Moore, i understand that with the death of Fire Joe Morgan, there's a lack of humor in all of our baseball-related lives. But that's no reason to keep making 99% of the baseball world laugh themselves to sleep, grateful that they're not Royals fans.
The Kansas City Royals made another trade, dealing another relief pitcher for another bat. Once again, the Royals traded a pitcher who may be at a value peak, but the return is nothing spectacular. Now there is talk that the Royals are in the market to acquire relief pitching, but their only trade pieces are the players that the first two trades have now made superflous, giving other teams little reason to pay much for them.
Crisp is a serviceable player, who will hit between .270-300 with an OBP between .320-.350. He has 15-20 home run potential and could probably steal 30 bases as an everyday player. But he's not a major offensive producer and regressed badly in Boston, where he mustered OPS+ of 77, 83, and 93 in his three seasons. But the Red Sox apparently regarded him as a luxury with the equally underwhelming, but more stolen base-prone Jacoby Ellsbury roaming in center field.
In exchange for Crisp, who will now likely lead off for the on-base and slugging-starved Royals, the Red Sox got Ramon Ramirez, a three-pitch reliever (fastball, changeup, slider) who has had two solid seasons in the majors and one disastrous one (2007), but has also been traded three times in his brief career. Ramirez fared well in 2006 and 2008, but his success in 2008 was due in no small part (as Dave Cameron notes on fangraphs) on an extremely low home run rate. Moving out of Kauffman Stadium, a pitcher-friendly venue even for the home team that's not pitching to the Royals, into Fenway Park will not help Ramirez on that count.
The Red Sox didn't get much in return for Crisp, who ended up being a substantial player for the 2008 squad because of Jacoby Ellsbury's impatience at the plate and late-season struggles, but they did get rid of a sizable contract for a part-time player and got someone who is at least going to be a replacement-level reliever that the Red Sox can use in lieu of a Mike Timlin. And yes, it means Justin Masterson might be able to make the move to the rotation, but as we've seen with Papelbon in 2007 and Clay Buchholz in 2008, things don't always go as planned in that rotation.
And I think the Red Sox got the better end of the deal, in any event. The Royals made a trade that's not bad, they got the better of the two players -- or at least the player who is a safer projection as the better of the two. But they also acquired a player who basically requires another move to be made. They have now added another outfielder to a mix that already had three guaranteed starters in Mark Teahen, David DeJesus, and Jose Guillen. Teahen's name has been in trade discussions and rumors -- with potential suitors being identified (falsely, apparently) as the Indians (who were, again, apparently falsely rumored to be willing to part with Ben Francisco, Franklin Gutierrez, or Trevor Crowe to get Teahen to play third) and the Cubs. But now, by acquiring a center fielder that will move DeJesus to left to suit the Royals' desires, they also put Mark Teahen on an obvious trade block. There's no room at DH, where the Royals already have a mess of players led by Billy Butler and, if Trey Hillman is an active observer of the game, Mike Jacobs -- a more woeful first baseman than the woeful Butler. They still have Ryan Shealy, Kiia Ka'ahuie, and theoretically Ross Gload.
They now basically have to move Mark Teahen in a trade or convince him to make another position change -- this time to second base, where he wouldn't be much worse defensively than the Royals' current leading option -- Esteban German. And there's little reason to believe he can bring back much in a trade when 1) other teams know he's worthless dead weight to the Royals and 2) he's not a particularly valuable player (91 OPS+ as a right fielder in 2008), he's really more of a poor man's Casey Blake because of the 1B/3B/RF position versatility -- a role that I think we can all agree is already filled by a readily-available free agent: Casey Blake.
Projected Royals' lineup:
LF DeJesus
SS Aviles
3B Gordon
RF Guillen
1B Jacobs
DH Butler
C Olivo/Buck
CF Crisp
2B German/Callaspo
Note: This presupposes that the Royals are observant enough to note that DeJesus' OBP warrants him being a leadoff batter. Deep down, I think we'll see Coco Crisp leading off and DeJesus dropping to third, plus a regression to the mean that will see Mike Aviles fall to 8th or 9th in the lineup. Keep in mind that Aviles' career minor league numbers fall well short in nearly every category of the numbers he posted in Kansas City last year.
In other news...
Mike Mussina has apparently decided to retire after his first 20-win season. Mussina had an impressive year in 2008, and even one that looked relatively sustainable, since so much of his success was attributable to a remarkable ability to avoid walks (31 BB in 200.1 IP), but it seems likely that the Yankees weren't counting on Mussina as a linchpin for their rotation.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Ryan Dempster re-signs with the Cubs
Ryan Dempster has returned to the Chicago Cubs for 4 years and $52 million. Dempster is coming off a career year and then some, having gone 17-9 with a 2.96 ERA and 187 Ks in his first year back in the rotation after several years as an inconsistent closer.
Dempster is an enigma, he's had two good seasons as a starter, but has been mostly ineffective in his career. He seemed to resolve most of the control problems that had haunted him in Florida, but also didn't give up much in the way of hits.
Assuming Dempster is anything vaguely resembling the pitcher he was in 2008, the contract is pretty reasonable for the Cubs. There's a $4 million signing bonus, $8 million in 2009, $12.5 million in 2010, $13.5 million in 2011, and a player option in 2012 for $14 million. That's a big assumption, though, Dempster has never shown any real consistency.
As much as the press made of Dempster's effectiveness at home, his home/road splits are actually pretty similar, except for his record on the road (a pedestrian 3-3, despite a 3.13 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the road). Dempster's biggest weakness, besides control problems in the past, is his struggle with left-handed batters. (1.76 WHIP, .282 BAA career) Last year, however, he kept lefties in check to the tune of 1.29 WHIP, .243 BAA. He also managed to keep balls in the yard, finishing with the 8th best home run rate among qualifying pitchers. That said, it's likely unsustainable that he can maintain that rate, considering his career numbers and the fact that he's not really a heavy-sinker pitcher. His BABIP was just under league average, so it's unlikely that he's a complete fluke.
The $13 million he averages over the life of this deal is just a touch more than the Reds are paying Francisco Cordero, so if Dempster proves to drop off a bit and have to return to his old role as a closer who blows 5-6 saves a season, the Cubs are still in relatively good hands. And so long as he is anything like the pitcher they had last season, he's a solid investment who's already had his Tommy John surgery and is probably going to hold up for the life of his deal better than free agent alternatives like A.J. Burnett, who is expected to command more than this deal.
The Dempster deal really seems to make the Jake Peavy trade very unlikely, since the Cubs' rotation is pretty well set with a number of other options in the organization.
Projected Cubs rotation:
RHP Carlos Zambrano
RHP Ryan Dempster
RHP Rich Harden
LHP Ted Lilly
RHP Jason Marquis/RHP Sean Marshall/RHP Rich Hill (remember him?)
Dempster is an enigma, he's had two good seasons as a starter, but has been mostly ineffective in his career. He seemed to resolve most of the control problems that had haunted him in Florida, but also didn't give up much in the way of hits.
Assuming Dempster is anything vaguely resembling the pitcher he was in 2008, the contract is pretty reasonable for the Cubs. There's a $4 million signing bonus, $8 million in 2009, $12.5 million in 2010, $13.5 million in 2011, and a player option in 2012 for $14 million. That's a big assumption, though, Dempster has never shown any real consistency.
As much as the press made of Dempster's effectiveness at home, his home/road splits are actually pretty similar, except for his record on the road (a pedestrian 3-3, despite a 3.13 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the road). Dempster's biggest weakness, besides control problems in the past, is his struggle with left-handed batters. (1.76 WHIP, .282 BAA career) Last year, however, he kept lefties in check to the tune of 1.29 WHIP, .243 BAA. He also managed to keep balls in the yard, finishing with the 8th best home run rate among qualifying pitchers. That said, it's likely unsustainable that he can maintain that rate, considering his career numbers and the fact that he's not really a heavy-sinker pitcher. His BABIP was just under league average, so it's unlikely that he's a complete fluke.
The $13 million he averages over the life of this deal is just a touch more than the Reds are paying Francisco Cordero, so if Dempster proves to drop off a bit and have to return to his old role as a closer who blows 5-6 saves a season, the Cubs are still in relatively good hands. And so long as he is anything like the pitcher they had last season, he's a solid investment who's already had his Tommy John surgery and is probably going to hold up for the life of his deal better than free agent alternatives like A.J. Burnett, who is expected to command more than this deal.
The Dempster deal really seems to make the Jake Peavy trade very unlikely, since the Cubs' rotation is pretty well set with a number of other options in the organization.
Projected Cubs rotation:
RHP Carlos Zambrano
RHP Ryan Dempster
RHP Rich Harden
LHP Ted Lilly
RHP Jason Marquis/RHP Sean Marshall/RHP Rich Hill (remember him?)
Monday, November 17, 2008
Affeldt signs with San Francisco
The Giants have signed left-handed reliever Jeremy Affeldt to a 2-year deal
Affeldt was relatively effective with the Reds in 2008, although he failed in his quest to crack the Reds' rotation. Upon the signing last year, Wayne Krivsky said the Reds were hoping he'd be a starter, then Affeldt didn't seem to get much of a shot at starting and had an awful spring training (8 games, 4 starts, ERA of 10.69).
Affeldt's a bit of an enigma. In 2007, he was a hard man to get hits off of (BAA of .226, 47 hits in 59 IP), in 2008, he was much more pedestrian in that category (.260, 78 hits in 78.1 IP), but still dropped his WHIP by .05 by not throwing so many walks. He's had three good years in his entire career (one of which was as a starter in 2003), but he's timed the last two well.
So why could this be a good signing for the Giants? Affeldt's not just useful against left-handed batters. In fact, last season lefties hit .269 against him, righties mustered only a .255 average (although Affeldt has a tendency to walk right-handed batters -- 20 of them in 49.2 IP, none intentional). And most of all, Jeremy Affeldt hated pitching in Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park, to a tune of 4.64 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, .302 BAA in 42.2 IP. On the road, he pitched 35.2 innings, but put up a sparkling ERA of 1.77, 1.04 WHIP, and .203 BAA.
That said, Affeldt hasn't fared too well on the road in his prior trip through the NL West. In 2007, he was dominant at Coors Field (1.74 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, .160 BAA), but got lit up on the road (5.46, 1.71, .294). He also hasn't pitched well in AT&T Park (6.43 ERA), though the sample size of 7 innings is pretty meaningless.
What does the signing really mean for the Giants? Probably not much. To me, it means Alex Hinshaw may get a shot to unseat Brian Wilson as the Giants' closer (or at least split duties with him), leaving Affeldt and Jack Taschner as the "situational" lefties in the Giants' bullpen. Maybe Affelt is now a designated 8th-inning guy regardless of who is at the plate because of his relatively even splits and maybe it means Taschner gets sent to AAA, but I'd be kind of surprised if that move were on the horizon after 178 major league games for the Giants.
Projected Giants bullpen:
CL Brian Wilson
LHP Alex Hinshaw
RHP Sergio Romo
LHP Jeremy Affeldt
RHP Keiichi Yabu
RHP Billy Sadler
RHP Osiris Matos
Affeldt was relatively effective with the Reds in 2008, although he failed in his quest to crack the Reds' rotation. Upon the signing last year, Wayne Krivsky said the Reds were hoping he'd be a starter, then Affeldt didn't seem to get much of a shot at starting and had an awful spring training (8 games, 4 starts, ERA of 10.69).
Affeldt's a bit of an enigma. In 2007, he was a hard man to get hits off of (BAA of .226, 47 hits in 59 IP), in 2008, he was much more pedestrian in that category (.260, 78 hits in 78.1 IP), but still dropped his WHIP by .05 by not throwing so many walks. He's had three good years in his entire career (one of which was as a starter in 2003), but he's timed the last two well.
So why could this be a good signing for the Giants? Affeldt's not just useful against left-handed batters. In fact, last season lefties hit .269 against him, righties mustered only a .255 average (although Affeldt has a tendency to walk right-handed batters -- 20 of them in 49.2 IP, none intentional). And most of all, Jeremy Affeldt hated pitching in Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park, to a tune of 4.64 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, .302 BAA in 42.2 IP. On the road, he pitched 35.2 innings, but put up a sparkling ERA of 1.77, 1.04 WHIP, and .203 BAA.
That said, Affeldt hasn't fared too well on the road in his prior trip through the NL West. In 2007, he was dominant at Coors Field (1.74 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, .160 BAA), but got lit up on the road (5.46, 1.71, .294). He also hasn't pitched well in AT&T Park (6.43 ERA), though the sample size of 7 innings is pretty meaningless.
What does the signing really mean for the Giants? Probably not much. To me, it means Alex Hinshaw may get a shot to unseat Brian Wilson as the Giants' closer (or at least split duties with him), leaving Affeldt and Jack Taschner as the "situational" lefties in the Giants' bullpen. Maybe Affelt is now a designated 8th-inning guy regardless of who is at the plate because of his relatively even splits and maybe it means Taschner gets sent to AAA, but I'd be kind of surprised if that move were on the horizon after 178 major league games for the Giants.
Projected Giants bullpen:
CL Brian Wilson
LHP Alex Hinshaw
RHP Sergio Romo
LHP Jeremy Affeldt
RHP Keiichi Yabu
RHP Billy Sadler
RHP Osiris Matos
Thursday, November 13, 2008
AL West: offseason outlook
AL West
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
The Angels didn't just win a lot of games by beating up on a lousy division, they fared just as well against the AL East and Central. But they never really added up to a team that was going to scare you. They've still got good pitching, but the offense is pretty middling for a team that's invested so heavily in free agents. The Angels have a number of meaningful free agents: Garret Anderson, Jon Garland, Darren Oliver, Juan Rivera, Francisco Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira.
Most likely to return: Darren Oliver has pitched pretty well since landing in Anaheim, re-signing him will be a priority for the Angels simply because they can afford him.
Most likely to leave:Jon Garland was a puzzling acquisition for the Angels last season and he didn't work out any better than they could have expected. The Angels don't figure to have much interest in re-signing him.
Non-tender candidates: Ryan Budde is a 29-year-old non-prospect third catcher. With Hank Conger in the upper minors, there's little chance Budde makes it past December. He'll be outrighted or non-tendered.
Prospect on the rise: Brandon Wood and Kendry Morales aren't really prospects anymore, since neither of them are rookies. Sean Rodriguez may figure as a middle infielder and Nick Adenhart may get another shot as a 5th starter, but it doesn't look like the Angels are promoting any major impact players onto their major league roster in 2009.
Needs: Relief pitching -- the Angels are on the verge of losing K-Rod, they have no real depth in their bullpen. Jose Arredondo may be a closer next year, Scot Shields and Justin Speier are back, but that's about it.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Kelvim Escobar missed all of 2008 with shoulder surgery, but was optimistic that he'd be able to return in 2009.
Free agent ceiling: The Angels are likely to be factors with every major free agent. They'll make a bid on Sabathia, Teixeira, and probably make some effort to resign Francisco Rodriguez after he discovers the market temperature.
Texas Rangers
The Rangers made a splash with a deal that I thought was a slam dunk for Jon Daniels, landing Josh Hamilton for a pitcher with serious control problems and an elfin reliever. That pitcher became Edinson Volquez (and the minuscule Danny Ray Herrera pitched relatively well in limited opportunities), so even though Josh Hamilton dominated AL pitching most of the year, the trade's probably a wash. Unfortunately, it meant the Rangers were scoring 6 or 7 runs in defeats. The Rangers haven't had a great starting pitcher since moving to the Ballpark at Arlington and can count their sub-4.00 ERA starters in that time on one hand -- or at least on Antonio Alfonseca's hand. Free agents are: Milton Bradley, Jason Jennings, Ramon Vazquez, Jamey Wright
Most likely to return: Milton Bradley is a DH and seems unlikely to move to a place where he'd have to play outfield every day. He's burned bridges in Los Angeles, San Diego, and Cleveland. The Rangers may be the only team actively bidding for his services, and he has performed for them. He should be back.
Most likely to leave:The Diamondbacks have already specifically mentioned Ramon Vazquez as a possible replacement for Orlando Hudson at second base. If a team's that interested, they should be able to outbid the Rangers, who would use him solely as a fill-in.
Non-tender candidates:None.
Prospect on the rise: Neftali Feliz pitched extremely well in the minors and might have an outside shot at cracking the rotation out of spring training, Max Ramirez and Taylor Teagarden will either be major league catchers or trade bait in 2009. Thomas Diamond, the only player of the Rangers' DVD pitching prospects to remain a Ranger (while the others -- John Danks and Edinson Volquez -- have made impressive debuts for other teams), struggled in 2008 after 2007 Tommy John surgery, but may yet prove to be major league ready.
Needs: Pitching of any sort. Kevin Millwood hasn't been an ace except for one season in Cleveland, Vicente Padilla is maddeningly inconsistent, and besides Matt Harrison, the young guys the Rangers are tossing behind them have pretty low ceilings.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Kason Gabbard went down for the year with a bone spur in his elbow, surgery on that may sideline him in early 2009. Milton Bradley was healthy in 2008. Counting on that to happen in 2009 would be a fool's errand.
Free agent ceiling: Ben Sheets may be a Ranger at the end of the offseason, because Mike Maddux is now the pitching coach of the Rangers, and the Rangers could use any starter, even one who's prone to injuries.
Oakland Athletics
Contrary to what everyone is saying, the A's are not trading Matt Holliday. They wanted two first round picks and by acquiring a man who is certain to be a Type A free agent, they have acquired those picks. He'll be with the A's come hell or high water in September. Beane hasn't done it for a while, but he used to do it all the time -- Ricardo Rincon, Ray Durham, Keith Foulke, Octavio Dotel are all examples (I think, it may only be three of the four) -- he trades for players who are likely to warrant compensation and if he can re-sign them, he will. If not, welcome draft picks. The Holliday move is unlikely to be the finish since Lew Wolff is apparently okay with a payroll surge. Free agents are insignificant: Emil Brown, Alan Embree, Keith Foulke, Mike Sweeney, Frank Thomas.
Most likely to return: Frank Thomas played well enough to consider bringing him back, but he's also a DH-only player, so it's unlikely anyone outside of Oakland will pony up any dough. The DH spot is likely going to be Jack Cust, but if the A's bring back Thomas, Cust can remain the American League's worst left fielder and move Matt Holliday to right. It's not a good defensive alignment, but it'll score a lot more runs.
Most likely to leave:Alan Embree's option was declined, he's a left-handed reliever who's not terrible. He'll find that money elsewhere.
Non-tender candidates: Matt Murton is 27 and hasn't shown the bat he was supposed to offer, Rajai Davis is a pure speed player on a team that doesn't have much interest in stealing bases. Rob Bowen has little upside as a #2 catcher, unless the A's intend to deal Landon Powell.
Prospect on the rise: Aaron Cunningham figures to be in the running to play in the outfield for the A's in 2009, but since he doesn't hit for much power or show much prowess with stealing bases, this speaks more about the questionable state of affairs in the A's outfield.
Needs: Third base, outfielders, starting pitching. Eric Chavez is not a dependable player, Jack Hannahan is not good enough to replace him, and Cliff Pennington doesn't look to be much better. Even with Matt Holliday, the A's outfield is Matt Holliday, Ryan Sweeney, and Jack Cust, which would be perhaps the worst fielding outfield in the history of Major League baseball. Landing another meaningful bat that could play right field and ensure Cust is a full-time DH would go a lot toward making this team respectable. For all the talk that Greg Smith was dispensable, he may have been the A's best starting pitcher last year after Harden and Blanton were dealt. The A's could use a veteran starting pitcher who could bring a little dependability to a volatile rotation of virtual rookies like Gio Gonzalez, Dallas Braden, and Sean Gallagher.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Eric Chavez missed most of 2008 after shoulder surgery, but simply can't be counted on as a major league player at this time in his career. Justin Duchscherer is expected to be ready to pitch "during spring training", so even a modest setback could affect his availability at the start of the regular season.
Free agent ceiling: The Athletics have some money and have been known to make random free agent investments in the past (remember Esteban Loaiza?). Jason Giambi is rumored to be on the horizon, Rafael Furcal has as well, and Furcal would almost certainly be the top of the free agent pool for the A's.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners were supposed to contend last year. Whoops. Instead, they were one of the worst teams in baseball and got swindled on a deal for Erik Bedard that actually looked relatively favorable when the Mariners made it. Willie Bloomquist, Miguel Cairo, Raul Ibanez, and Jose Vidro are the Mariners' only free agents.
Most likely to return: Willie Bloomquist had far and away his best season in 2008. He's versatile enough to keep around since the team's not going to be getting much better in 2009. He's still unlikely to be back, but I'd give him considerably better odds than the others.
Most likely to leave:The Jose Vidro experiment is over. So is Jose Vidro's career.
Non-tender candidates: There has been talk that Erik Bedard may be the most impressive player non-tendered in my lifetime. Coming off surgery and likely to make significant money in arbitration, injury or not, there was talk last season of the Mariners cutting their losses and non-tendering Bedard. I don't think it will happen, but it is something the Mariners could consider if the prognosis gets worse in the next couple of weeks.
Prospect on the rise: Matt Tuiasasopo may hit the major leagues in 2009, particularly if the Mariners decide to deal Adrian Beltre. the other minor leaguers don't look to make an impact until until 2010.
Needs: First base, left and center field. Bryan LaHair may have made more contact than Richie Sexson, but he didn't produce anything to convince anyone he was a bona fide major league first baseman. Jeremy Reed finally produced enough to warrant a roster spot, but doesn't look like a star in center field. Wladamier Balantien hasn't looked like a player of major league caliber, which means the Mariners may need to look elsewhere to replace Raul Ibanez.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Erik Bedard is unlikely to be ready for the early part of the 2009 season, though the prognosis now has him returning by mid-season at least.
Free agent ceiling: This team's been making ill-advised buys for a while (Carlos Silva, Jarrod Washburn, Richie Sexson, the now comparatively successful Adrian Beltre), that'll pause for at least 2009.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
The Angels didn't just win a lot of games by beating up on a lousy division, they fared just as well against the AL East and Central. But they never really added up to a team that was going to scare you. They've still got good pitching, but the offense is pretty middling for a team that's invested so heavily in free agents. The Angels have a number of meaningful free agents: Garret Anderson, Jon Garland, Darren Oliver, Juan Rivera, Francisco Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira.
Most likely to return: Darren Oliver has pitched pretty well since landing in Anaheim, re-signing him will be a priority for the Angels simply because they can afford him.
Most likely to leave:Jon Garland was a puzzling acquisition for the Angels last season and he didn't work out any better than they could have expected. The Angels don't figure to have much interest in re-signing him.
Non-tender candidates: Ryan Budde is a 29-year-old non-prospect third catcher. With Hank Conger in the upper minors, there's little chance Budde makes it past December. He'll be outrighted or non-tendered.
Prospect on the rise: Brandon Wood and Kendry Morales aren't really prospects anymore, since neither of them are rookies. Sean Rodriguez may figure as a middle infielder and Nick Adenhart may get another shot as a 5th starter, but it doesn't look like the Angels are promoting any major impact players onto their major league roster in 2009.
Needs: Relief pitching -- the Angels are on the verge of losing K-Rod, they have no real depth in their bullpen. Jose Arredondo may be a closer next year, Scot Shields and Justin Speier are back, but that's about it.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Kelvim Escobar missed all of 2008 with shoulder surgery, but was optimistic that he'd be able to return in 2009.
Free agent ceiling: The Angels are likely to be factors with every major free agent. They'll make a bid on Sabathia, Teixeira, and probably make some effort to resign Francisco Rodriguez after he discovers the market temperature.
Texas Rangers
The Rangers made a splash with a deal that I thought was a slam dunk for Jon Daniels, landing Josh Hamilton for a pitcher with serious control problems and an elfin reliever. That pitcher became Edinson Volquez (and the minuscule Danny Ray Herrera pitched relatively well in limited opportunities), so even though Josh Hamilton dominated AL pitching most of the year, the trade's probably a wash. Unfortunately, it meant the Rangers were scoring 6 or 7 runs in defeats. The Rangers haven't had a great starting pitcher since moving to the Ballpark at Arlington and can count their sub-4.00 ERA starters in that time on one hand -- or at least on Antonio Alfonseca's hand. Free agents are: Milton Bradley, Jason Jennings, Ramon Vazquez, Jamey Wright
Most likely to return: Milton Bradley is a DH and seems unlikely to move to a place where he'd have to play outfield every day. He's burned bridges in Los Angeles, San Diego, and Cleveland. The Rangers may be the only team actively bidding for his services, and he has performed for them. He should be back.
Most likely to leave:The Diamondbacks have already specifically mentioned Ramon Vazquez as a possible replacement for Orlando Hudson at second base. If a team's that interested, they should be able to outbid the Rangers, who would use him solely as a fill-in.
Non-tender candidates:None.
Prospect on the rise: Neftali Feliz pitched extremely well in the minors and might have an outside shot at cracking the rotation out of spring training, Max Ramirez and Taylor Teagarden will either be major league catchers or trade bait in 2009. Thomas Diamond, the only player of the Rangers' DVD pitching prospects to remain a Ranger (while the others -- John Danks and Edinson Volquez -- have made impressive debuts for other teams), struggled in 2008 after 2007 Tommy John surgery, but may yet prove to be major league ready.
Needs: Pitching of any sort. Kevin Millwood hasn't been an ace except for one season in Cleveland, Vicente Padilla is maddeningly inconsistent, and besides Matt Harrison, the young guys the Rangers are tossing behind them have pretty low ceilings.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Kason Gabbard went down for the year with a bone spur in his elbow, surgery on that may sideline him in early 2009. Milton Bradley was healthy in 2008. Counting on that to happen in 2009 would be a fool's errand.
Free agent ceiling: Ben Sheets may be a Ranger at the end of the offseason, because Mike Maddux is now the pitching coach of the Rangers, and the Rangers could use any starter, even one who's prone to injuries.
Oakland Athletics
Contrary to what everyone is saying, the A's are not trading Matt Holliday. They wanted two first round picks and by acquiring a man who is certain to be a Type A free agent, they have acquired those picks. He'll be with the A's come hell or high water in September. Beane hasn't done it for a while, but he used to do it all the time -- Ricardo Rincon, Ray Durham, Keith Foulke, Octavio Dotel are all examples (I think, it may only be three of the four) -- he trades for players who are likely to warrant compensation and if he can re-sign them, he will. If not, welcome draft picks. The Holliday move is unlikely to be the finish since Lew Wolff is apparently okay with a payroll surge. Free agents are insignificant: Emil Brown, Alan Embree, Keith Foulke, Mike Sweeney, Frank Thomas.
Most likely to return: Frank Thomas played well enough to consider bringing him back, but he's also a DH-only player, so it's unlikely anyone outside of Oakland will pony up any dough. The DH spot is likely going to be Jack Cust, but if the A's bring back Thomas, Cust can remain the American League's worst left fielder and move Matt Holliday to right. It's not a good defensive alignment, but it'll score a lot more runs.
Most likely to leave:Alan Embree's option was declined, he's a left-handed reliever who's not terrible. He'll find that money elsewhere.
Non-tender candidates: Matt Murton is 27 and hasn't shown the bat he was supposed to offer, Rajai Davis is a pure speed player on a team that doesn't have much interest in stealing bases. Rob Bowen has little upside as a #2 catcher, unless the A's intend to deal Landon Powell.
Prospect on the rise: Aaron Cunningham figures to be in the running to play in the outfield for the A's in 2009, but since he doesn't hit for much power or show much prowess with stealing bases, this speaks more about the questionable state of affairs in the A's outfield.
Needs: Third base, outfielders, starting pitching. Eric Chavez is not a dependable player, Jack Hannahan is not good enough to replace him, and Cliff Pennington doesn't look to be much better. Even with Matt Holliday, the A's outfield is Matt Holliday, Ryan Sweeney, and Jack Cust, which would be perhaps the worst fielding outfield in the history of Major League baseball. Landing another meaningful bat that could play right field and ensure Cust is a full-time DH would go a lot toward making this team respectable. For all the talk that Greg Smith was dispensable, he may have been the A's best starting pitcher last year after Harden and Blanton were dealt. The A's could use a veteran starting pitcher who could bring a little dependability to a volatile rotation of virtual rookies like Gio Gonzalez, Dallas Braden, and Sean Gallagher.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Eric Chavez missed most of 2008 after shoulder surgery, but simply can't be counted on as a major league player at this time in his career. Justin Duchscherer is expected to be ready to pitch "during spring training", so even a modest setback could affect his availability at the start of the regular season.
Free agent ceiling: The Athletics have some money and have been known to make random free agent investments in the past (remember Esteban Loaiza?). Jason Giambi is rumored to be on the horizon, Rafael Furcal has as well, and Furcal would almost certainly be the top of the free agent pool for the A's.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners were supposed to contend last year. Whoops. Instead, they were one of the worst teams in baseball and got swindled on a deal for Erik Bedard that actually looked relatively favorable when the Mariners made it. Willie Bloomquist, Miguel Cairo, Raul Ibanez, and Jose Vidro are the Mariners' only free agents.
Most likely to return: Willie Bloomquist had far and away his best season in 2008. He's versatile enough to keep around since the team's not going to be getting much better in 2009. He's still unlikely to be back, but I'd give him considerably better odds than the others.
Most likely to leave:The Jose Vidro experiment is over. So is Jose Vidro's career.
Non-tender candidates: There has been talk that Erik Bedard may be the most impressive player non-tendered in my lifetime. Coming off surgery and likely to make significant money in arbitration, injury or not, there was talk last season of the Mariners cutting their losses and non-tendering Bedard. I don't think it will happen, but it is something the Mariners could consider if the prognosis gets worse in the next couple of weeks.
Prospect on the rise: Matt Tuiasasopo may hit the major leagues in 2009, particularly if the Mariners decide to deal Adrian Beltre. the other minor leaguers don't look to make an impact until until 2010.
Needs: First base, left and center field. Bryan LaHair may have made more contact than Richie Sexson, but he didn't produce anything to convince anyone he was a bona fide major league first baseman. Jeremy Reed finally produced enough to warrant a roster spot, but doesn't look like a star in center field. Wladamier Balantien hasn't looked like a player of major league caliber, which means the Mariners may need to look elsewhere to replace Raul Ibanez.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Erik Bedard is unlikely to be ready for the early part of the 2009 season, though the prognosis now has him returning by mid-season at least.
Free agent ceiling: This team's been making ill-advised buys for a while (Carlos Silva, Jarrod Washburn, Richie Sexson, the now comparatively successful Adrian Beltre), that'll pause for at least 2009.
NL West: Offseason Outlook
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers underachieved, didn't make the abominable deals that were rumored (Matt Kemp for Jack Wilson, anyone?) and were only stung by the predictably moronic signing of Andruw Jones. The others went relatively well. So what's left in the tank for the encore for this team? Well, there's talk that they want to move Russell Martin -- and only about half the remaining Dodgers are free agents. Joe Beimel, Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal, Nomar Garciaparra, Jason Johnson, Jeff Kent, Derek Lowe, Greg Maddux, Pablo Ozuna, Chan Ho Park, Brad Penny, Tanyon Sturtze, Mark Sweeney, and oh yeah, Manny Ramirez.
Most likely to return: Manny Ramirez seems a lock to return. He'd seem to be fourth or fifth at best on the Yankees' wish list after Sabathia, Teixeira, Derek Lowe, and A.J. Burnett and doesn't seem likely to get along with the management in New York. With Boston out of the picture, the Yankees are the only real option for Boras to use to drive the price up.
Most likely to leave:Brad Penny and Tanyon Sturtze were already told to get out, so we can assume they won't come back. Jeff Kent will probably retire. Rafael Furcal is targeted by a number of teams, and that may price him out of Los Angeles' plans.
Non-tender candidates:Danny Ardoin should be non-tendered, since the Dodgers are carrying a whopping five catchers on their 40-man roster even though their starting catcher played in 155 games. But with the number of free agents the Dodgers have, their 40-man roster will be sufficiently empty at Rule 5 time.
Prospect on the rise: James McDonald dazzled in the NLCS, shutting down the Phillies after they'd smacked around Chad Billingsley. He should get a shot at starting with Derek Lowe and Greg Maddux hitting free agency. Everyone else in the organization poised to have an impact...spent most of 2008 in the Majors.
Needs: 2B/SS/3B, relief pitching. Blake DeWitt is an acceptable major league starter at second base and showed some propensity for playing the position in the playoffs. But he's right now the top-listed player at both second and third. That will lead to some interesting infield defenses. The Dodgers are also in need of a shortstop, and preferably one considerably more durable than Rafael Furcal, who was fine when he played (3-error innings aside), but didn't play enough to make that a meaningful sample size. The outfield could use competence, since the available players to fill the Manny gap are Andruw Jones and Off Base Percentage factory Juan Pierre, but that'd be asking an awful lot. The relief corps is thin with Beimel, Maddux, and Park hitting free agency and McDonald potentially entering the rotation, so the Dodgers will need to add someone in that spot as well.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Andruw Jones' strained belt may sideline him for much of 2009 and will almost certainly prevent him from living up to the abortion of a contract Ned Colletti handed Scott Boras last year. Jason Schmidt's recovery from shoulder surgery has now taken the better part of two seasons, and it's hard to expect him to contribute in 2009, but the Dodgers will need him to come back strong.
Free agent ceiling: Manny Ramirez is the ceiling for the Dodgers, and if he leaves, the ceiling will likely be Derek Lowe. I don't think the Dodgers will pay much for free agents that aren't already Dodgers, considering Ned Colletti's last two smashing successes (Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones).
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks probably had their best shot at making the playoffs in the near future ruined by a disappointing finish to the 2008 season. Now, they're about to hemorrhage free agents and will be relying heavily on a 1-2-3 punch of Webb, Haren, and Scherzer to get them through a rough patch. The Diamondbacks have a number of free agents, including a pair of key position players, a Hall of Famer, and a potential closer: Tony Clark, Juan Cruz, Adam Dunn, David Eckstein, Orlando Hudson, Randy Johnson, Brandon Lyon.
Most likely to return: Brandon Lyon has expressed willingness to return, nearly everyone else on the list is too expensive.
Most likely to leave: Adam Dunn had a productive 2 months with the Diamondbacks (.889 OPS, 8 HR to make his fourth straight season hitting exactly 40 home runs). Although he seems to have been lost in the LF market while teams are rumored to be in the hunt for Pat Burrell or Raul Ibanez, Dunn's home runs aren't going to stay lost.
Non-tender candidates:Randy Johnson's an atypical non-tender case. He hasn't filed for free agency yet, but the Diamondbacks would have to tender him a contract for at least 80% of his 2008 salary to keep him from becoming a free agent by default. That'd be $10 million, so he's getting non-tendered. Chris "I wasn't Corky on Life Goes On" Burke would be a candidate after two consecutive lousy seasons, but the Diamondbacks don't have a replacement for Orlando Hudson signed for next year, so he may get the job.
Prospect on the rise: Josh Whitesell and Jamie D'Antona both smoked the ball in AAA Tucson last year. The only problems are that they play first base (already filled by Conor Jackson and Chad Tracy) and they play in the National League. If they get a shot, they could make an impact in 2009, but Conor Jackson needs to take to being a full-time left fielder and Chad Tracy will probably need to get hurt for both of them to stick on the major league roster.
Needs: Second base, starting pitching. Orlando Hudson is gone after 2008, David Eckstein is a sub-.700 OPS player who continues to get by on mistaken assessments of his clutchness (which was even more of a joke than usual in 2008 -- .729 OPS with bases empty, .649 with runners on). With Randy Johnson leaving and Doug Davis less than a year from chemotherapy, it'd be folly to go to the regular season with no more starting depth, though the Diamondbacks' budget won't accommodate much more than a few minor league deals to the Mark Redmans of the world.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Eric Byrnes' hamstring injury made him appear to be an even worse signing than he was.
Free agent ceiling: The Diamondbacks have already said they have less than $10 million to spend in the offseason. That pretty much rules out making a big splash, and rules out Orlando hudson, Adam Dunn, and probably even Randy Johnson. Brandon Lyon is an outside shot, but that might commit too much of the team's budget considering their needs. Ramon Vazquez/Brandon Lyon are probably the ceiling.
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies returned to real life in 2008, where teams with mediocre pitching and hitting didn't go to the World Series. They aren't far from the front of the NL West, even without Matt Holliday, though the trade probably moved them back.
Brian Fuentes, Matt Herges, Livan Hernandez, Adam Melhuse, Scott Podsednik, Glendon Rusch
Most likely to return: Matt Herges and Glendon Rusch are the only players you will plausibly see in Rockies' uniforms next year. I think Herges has the edge, since he's been with the Rnockies a couple of years and will generate less interest than Rusch, simply because Rusch throws with the correct arm.
Most likely to leave: It was a surprise to see Brian Fuentes remain a member of the Rockies past July, it'd be a heart attack inducer to see him re-sign there.
Non-tender candidates: None.
Prospect on the rise: With Ian Stewart cracking the Rockies lineup for part of 2008, the Rockies already graduated their top prospect. Dexter Fowler is blocked only by Ryan Spilborghs/Carlos Gonzalez from claiming an everyday spot in the Rockies' outfield. While he's not the same level of prospect as Gonzalez, he could still beat him out. Joe Koshansky could figure in the Rockies' plans after another solid season at AAA, although with Garret Atkins and Todd Helton still receiving paychecks from the Rockies, his playing time will be pretty sparse.
Needs: Relief pitching. Surprisingly, they don't really have any major holes. The starting rotation needs to be better, but the candidates from within (Aaron Cook, Jeff Francis, Ubaldo Jimenez, Frankly Morales, Greg Smith, Greg Reynolds, and Jorge de la Rosa) are adequate. The bullpen's still got Manny Corpas, Taylor Bucholz, and Jason Grilli. But they will need depth, particularly since three relief pitchers are free agents: Brian Fuentes, Matt Herges, and Glendon Rusch.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Todd Helton had lower back surgery in September, but he's ceased to be a major player in this lineup.
Free agent ceiling: Because the needs are pretty minimal, the Rockies aren't likely to invest money in any players. They're still rumored to be looking to move Garrett Atkins and Willy Taveras to cut payroll further.
San Francisco Giants
In the first season of the post-Barry Bonds era, the Giants found themselves as one of the most offensively inept teams in the major leagues. With the Giants finishing 28th and the A's finishing 30th in the league in OPS, the San Francisco Bay was starved of runs. Rich Aurilia and Omar Vizquel are the Giants' only major league free agents.
Most likely to return: Since there's only two, the answer is clearly Aurilia. Aurilia's versatility is helpful for a team with a lot of gaps, though his defense at 3B isn't particularly impressive.
Most likely to leave: The Giants declined Vizquel's option and were not subtle about his non-return. He may have another year in him and wash ashore in St. Louis or some other team in need of a shortstop, but he's hardly a sure thing to play in 2009 and will likely retire 343 hits short of 3,000.
Non-tender candidates: None.
Prospect on the rise: Pablo Sandoval isn't even a rookie any more, so he doesn't count. Travis Ishikawa may be a borderline prospect, but is likely to put together pretty pitiful numbers for a first baseman.
Needs: Everything except starting pitching. The Giants don't have any gaping holes, but it's because most of their positions would be considered a hole on other teams. Aaron Rowand is fine. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez are a superb core, Noah Lowry is effective enough when healthy, and Barry Zito was less awful than he was in 2007.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Noah Lowry missed all of 2008 with elbow surgery, but is expected to be back in 2009.
Free agent ceiling: The Giants are never afraid to overpay for players. They may be able to make a play for C.C. Sabathia or Manny Ramirez, though a lot may depend on the Yankees.
San Diego Padres
Trevor Hoffman, Mark Prior, Brett Tomko
Most likely to return: Tomko had control problems with the Padres, but fared well after arriving in San Diego. He's hardly a lock to return, but shouldn't cost the Padres much at this point.
Most likely to leave: Trevor Hoffman received an embarrassment of an offer just after the Padres paid $9 million to Brian Giles (admittedly, Giles had a $3 million buyout, so the choice was between paying $9 million or $3 million). He's a near-lifetime Padre having had brief runs in the Reds minor league system before going to Florida in the expansion draft, but he's going to finish his career elsewhere.
Non-tender candidates:None.
Prospect on the rise: Will Venable may be able to play a role in the Padres' outfield in 2009, after a productive year at AAA. Though he's probably blocked by Brian Giles and Chase Headley, he could be a part of the big picture. Other than that, the Padres are pretty devoid of high-level prospects.
Needs: Catching, starting pitching, shortstop. The Padres are completely empty behind the plate, with only Nick Hundley on the 40-man roster. Jake Peavy and Chris Young are a dynamic pairing, but Cha-Seung Baek and Josh Banks are hardly world-beaters and there's nothing behind him.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: No major injuries will be following the Padres into 2009.
Free agent ceiling: The floor's the limit in San Diego. If they're not willing to pay Trevor Hoffman $4 million or Jake Peavy his below-market deal, it's unlikely this team's making a play for any major free agents.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers underachieved, didn't make the abominable deals that were rumored (Matt Kemp for Jack Wilson, anyone?) and were only stung by the predictably moronic signing of Andruw Jones. The others went relatively well. So what's left in the tank for the encore for this team? Well, there's talk that they want to move Russell Martin -- and only about half the remaining Dodgers are free agents. Joe Beimel, Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal, Nomar Garciaparra, Jason Johnson, Jeff Kent, Derek Lowe, Greg Maddux, Pablo Ozuna, Chan Ho Park, Brad Penny, Tanyon Sturtze, Mark Sweeney, and oh yeah, Manny Ramirez.
Most likely to return: Manny Ramirez seems a lock to return. He'd seem to be fourth or fifth at best on the Yankees' wish list after Sabathia, Teixeira, Derek Lowe, and A.J. Burnett and doesn't seem likely to get along with the management in New York. With Boston out of the picture, the Yankees are the only real option for Boras to use to drive the price up.
Most likely to leave:Brad Penny and Tanyon Sturtze were already told to get out, so we can assume they won't come back. Jeff Kent will probably retire. Rafael Furcal is targeted by a number of teams, and that may price him out of Los Angeles' plans.
Non-tender candidates:Danny Ardoin should be non-tendered, since the Dodgers are carrying a whopping five catchers on their 40-man roster even though their starting catcher played in 155 games. But with the number of free agents the Dodgers have, their 40-man roster will be sufficiently empty at Rule 5 time.
Prospect on the rise: James McDonald dazzled in the NLCS, shutting down the Phillies after they'd smacked around Chad Billingsley. He should get a shot at starting with Derek Lowe and Greg Maddux hitting free agency. Everyone else in the organization poised to have an impact...spent most of 2008 in the Majors.
Needs: 2B/SS/3B, relief pitching. Blake DeWitt is an acceptable major league starter at second base and showed some propensity for playing the position in the playoffs. But he's right now the top-listed player at both second and third. That will lead to some interesting infield defenses. The Dodgers are also in need of a shortstop, and preferably one considerably more durable than Rafael Furcal, who was fine when he played (3-error innings aside), but didn't play enough to make that a meaningful sample size. The outfield could use competence, since the available players to fill the Manny gap are Andruw Jones and Off Base Percentage factory Juan Pierre, but that'd be asking an awful lot. The relief corps is thin with Beimel, Maddux, and Park hitting free agency and McDonald potentially entering the rotation, so the Dodgers will need to add someone in that spot as well.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Andruw Jones' strained belt may sideline him for much of 2009 and will almost certainly prevent him from living up to the abortion of a contract Ned Colletti handed Scott Boras last year. Jason Schmidt's recovery from shoulder surgery has now taken the better part of two seasons, and it's hard to expect him to contribute in 2009, but the Dodgers will need him to come back strong.
Free agent ceiling: Manny Ramirez is the ceiling for the Dodgers, and if he leaves, the ceiling will likely be Derek Lowe. I don't think the Dodgers will pay much for free agents that aren't already Dodgers, considering Ned Colletti's last two smashing successes (Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones).
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks probably had their best shot at making the playoffs in the near future ruined by a disappointing finish to the 2008 season. Now, they're about to hemorrhage free agents and will be relying heavily on a 1-2-3 punch of Webb, Haren, and Scherzer to get them through a rough patch. The Diamondbacks have a number of free agents, including a pair of key position players, a Hall of Famer, and a potential closer: Tony Clark, Juan Cruz, Adam Dunn, David Eckstein, Orlando Hudson, Randy Johnson, Brandon Lyon.
Most likely to return: Brandon Lyon has expressed willingness to return, nearly everyone else on the list is too expensive.
Most likely to leave: Adam Dunn had a productive 2 months with the Diamondbacks (.889 OPS, 8 HR to make his fourth straight season hitting exactly 40 home runs). Although he seems to have been lost in the LF market while teams are rumored to be in the hunt for Pat Burrell or Raul Ibanez, Dunn's home runs aren't going to stay lost.
Non-tender candidates:Randy Johnson's an atypical non-tender case. He hasn't filed for free agency yet, but the Diamondbacks would have to tender him a contract for at least 80% of his 2008 salary to keep him from becoming a free agent by default. That'd be $10 million, so he's getting non-tendered. Chris "I wasn't Corky on Life Goes On" Burke would be a candidate after two consecutive lousy seasons, but the Diamondbacks don't have a replacement for Orlando Hudson signed for next year, so he may get the job.
Prospect on the rise: Josh Whitesell and Jamie D'Antona both smoked the ball in AAA Tucson last year. The only problems are that they play first base (already filled by Conor Jackson and Chad Tracy) and they play in the National League. If they get a shot, they could make an impact in 2009, but Conor Jackson needs to take to being a full-time left fielder and Chad Tracy will probably need to get hurt for both of them to stick on the major league roster.
Needs: Second base, starting pitching. Orlando Hudson is gone after 2008, David Eckstein is a sub-.700 OPS player who continues to get by on mistaken assessments of his clutchness (which was even more of a joke than usual in 2008 -- .729 OPS with bases empty, .649 with runners on). With Randy Johnson leaving and Doug Davis less than a year from chemotherapy, it'd be folly to go to the regular season with no more starting depth, though the Diamondbacks' budget won't accommodate much more than a few minor league deals to the Mark Redmans of the world.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Eric Byrnes' hamstring injury made him appear to be an even worse signing than he was.
Free agent ceiling: The Diamondbacks have already said they have less than $10 million to spend in the offseason. That pretty much rules out making a big splash, and rules out Orlando hudson, Adam Dunn, and probably even Randy Johnson. Brandon Lyon is an outside shot, but that might commit too much of the team's budget considering their needs. Ramon Vazquez/Brandon Lyon are probably the ceiling.
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies returned to real life in 2008, where teams with mediocre pitching and hitting didn't go to the World Series. They aren't far from the front of the NL West, even without Matt Holliday, though the trade probably moved them back.
Brian Fuentes, Matt Herges, Livan Hernandez, Adam Melhuse, Scott Podsednik, Glendon Rusch
Most likely to return: Matt Herges and Glendon Rusch are the only players you will plausibly see in Rockies' uniforms next year. I think Herges has the edge, since he's been with the Rnockies a couple of years and will generate less interest than Rusch, simply because Rusch throws with the correct arm.
Most likely to leave: It was a surprise to see Brian Fuentes remain a member of the Rockies past July, it'd be a heart attack inducer to see him re-sign there.
Non-tender candidates: None.
Prospect on the rise: With Ian Stewart cracking the Rockies lineup for part of 2008, the Rockies already graduated their top prospect. Dexter Fowler is blocked only by Ryan Spilborghs/Carlos Gonzalez from claiming an everyday spot in the Rockies' outfield. While he's not the same level of prospect as Gonzalez, he could still beat him out. Joe Koshansky could figure in the Rockies' plans after another solid season at AAA, although with Garret Atkins and Todd Helton still receiving paychecks from the Rockies, his playing time will be pretty sparse.
Needs: Relief pitching. Surprisingly, they don't really have any major holes. The starting rotation needs to be better, but the candidates from within (Aaron Cook, Jeff Francis, Ubaldo Jimenez, Frankly Morales, Greg Smith, Greg Reynolds, and Jorge de la Rosa) are adequate. The bullpen's still got Manny Corpas, Taylor Bucholz, and Jason Grilli. But they will need depth, particularly since three relief pitchers are free agents: Brian Fuentes, Matt Herges, and Glendon Rusch.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Todd Helton had lower back surgery in September, but he's ceased to be a major player in this lineup.
Free agent ceiling: Because the needs are pretty minimal, the Rockies aren't likely to invest money in any players. They're still rumored to be looking to move Garrett Atkins and Willy Taveras to cut payroll further.
San Francisco Giants
In the first season of the post-Barry Bonds era, the Giants found themselves as one of the most offensively inept teams in the major leagues. With the Giants finishing 28th and the A's finishing 30th in the league in OPS, the San Francisco Bay was starved of runs. Rich Aurilia and Omar Vizquel are the Giants' only major league free agents.
Most likely to return: Since there's only two, the answer is clearly Aurilia. Aurilia's versatility is helpful for a team with a lot of gaps, though his defense at 3B isn't particularly impressive.
Most likely to leave: The Giants declined Vizquel's option and were not subtle about his non-return. He may have another year in him and wash ashore in St. Louis or some other team in need of a shortstop, but he's hardly a sure thing to play in 2009 and will likely retire 343 hits short of 3,000.
Non-tender candidates: None.
Prospect on the rise: Pablo Sandoval isn't even a rookie any more, so he doesn't count. Travis Ishikawa may be a borderline prospect, but is likely to put together pretty pitiful numbers for a first baseman.
Needs: Everything except starting pitching. The Giants don't have any gaping holes, but it's because most of their positions would be considered a hole on other teams. Aaron Rowand is fine. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez are a superb core, Noah Lowry is effective enough when healthy, and Barry Zito was less awful than he was in 2007.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Noah Lowry missed all of 2008 with elbow surgery, but is expected to be back in 2009.
Free agent ceiling: The Giants are never afraid to overpay for players. They may be able to make a play for C.C. Sabathia or Manny Ramirez, though a lot may depend on the Yankees.
San Diego Padres
Trevor Hoffman, Mark Prior, Brett Tomko
Most likely to return: Tomko had control problems with the Padres, but fared well after arriving in San Diego. He's hardly a lock to return, but shouldn't cost the Padres much at this point.
Most likely to leave: Trevor Hoffman received an embarrassment of an offer just after the Padres paid $9 million to Brian Giles (admittedly, Giles had a $3 million buyout, so the choice was between paying $9 million or $3 million). He's a near-lifetime Padre having had brief runs in the Reds minor league system before going to Florida in the expansion draft, but he's going to finish his career elsewhere.
Non-tender candidates:None.
Prospect on the rise: Will Venable may be able to play a role in the Padres' outfield in 2009, after a productive year at AAA. Though he's probably blocked by Brian Giles and Chase Headley, he could be a part of the big picture. Other than that, the Padres are pretty devoid of high-level prospects.
Needs: Catching, starting pitching, shortstop. The Padres are completely empty behind the plate, with only Nick Hundley on the 40-man roster. Jake Peavy and Chris Young are a dynamic pairing, but Cha-Seung Baek and Josh Banks are hardly world-beaters and there's nothing behind him.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: No major injuries will be following the Padres into 2009.
Free agent ceiling: The floor's the limit in San Diego. If they're not willing to pay Trevor Hoffman $4 million or Jake Peavy his below-market deal, it's unlikely this team's making a play for any major free agents.
Thursday Trade Blitz; Gregg; Swisher; Damaso (not Andy) Marte re-signs
Deal:
The Chicago Cubs trade for ousted Marlins' closer Kevin Gregg, giving up relief pitching prospect Jose Ceda.
Analysis:
Kevin Gregg was an effective closer up until about August, when the wheels seemed to come off. Although he'd blown 4 saves in the first two months of the season, every one of those saves was a 1-run save. On July 3-4, Gregg blew two straight saves, allowing two runs in each appearance even at that, he settled in, but completely fell apart in August, compiling an ERA of 10.18 after ERAs of 2.51, 2.08, 2.38, and 2.92 in previous months. The Marlins pulled him from the closer's role and replaced him with Matt Lindstrom, who converted all five of his save opportunities.
Gregg improved by leaps and bounds once he got in Florida, and it looks at first glance like it was all traceable to his suddenly unhittable stuff, because batters went from hitting .278 and .280 his last two seasons with the Angels to .206 and .203 his two seasons in Florida. His home run rate dropped dramatically from 10 to 3 after two years in Miami. But, as fangraphs shows us, Gregg's resurgence probably has a lot more to do with good luck (or good team defense -- but in Florida, I'll assume it was luck) than great improvement as a pitcher.
Though his other numbers make it look like all is fine in Kevin Gregg-land, the sharp drop in his K rate indicates that Gregg may be in trouble. After striking out 1.03 an inning in 2007 to 0.84 K/IP, while his walk rate soared from an already career high 0.40 BB/IP in 2007 to a 0.54 BB/IP in 2008. This is a frightening combination, particularly for a pitcher who can be expected to allow more home runs in the Friendly Confines than in the pitcher-friendly confines of Dolphins Stadium. So there's good reason to believe the Cubs aren't getting a dynamite closer/setup man.
What did they give up? Jose Ceda, a 21 year-old fireballing prospect who compiled a 2.08 ERA in AA Tennessee last year. Ceda was rated as the #4 prospect in the Cubs' organization behind untouchable Josh Vitters, NL Rookie of the Year Geovany Soto, and outfielder Tyler Colvin (Ceda was rated ahead of players like Jeff Samardzija, Eric Patterson, and Sean Gallagher -- the latter two of whom were traded in the Rich Harden deal). Though Ceda struggled in the Florida State League, when he got to AA, he blew away hitters, striking out 42 in 30.1 innings. He has struggled with his control at times (31 BB in 46 IP at low-A Peoria in 2007 and about 0.50 BB/IP in A/AA ball last year) and has a tendency to gain weight (last year wavering between 247 and his now-listed 275 pounds).
It's hard to see how this deal makes sense for the Cubs. Only a couple days after making an astonishing deal for low-level prospects who couldn't contribute in the near future, Larry Beinfest makes a deal for a pitcher who's probably only a year away by dealing an overrated closer that seems to have gotten by on luck for the last two years. Gregg may be okay for the Cubs, but doesn't offer much more than was available on the free agent market for what Gregg will cost post-arbitration, and may offer less than Ceda might have in the Majors this year. And Ceda is only 21.
Now, the Cubs have announced that Kerry Wood won't be back. Don't worry about getting swept in the playoffs next year, Cubs fans. With this kind of management, you should finish about fourth.
Deal:
Damaso Marte re-signs with the Yankees for 3 years, $12 million.
Analysis:
I was surprised the Yankees didn't pick up Marte's $6 million option, but they got a potentially better deal by giving Marte a couple extra years.
Marte was an odd player last year thanks to some sample sizes, because lefties hit him considerably better than right-handers (this is not historically the case, however). He didn't pitch particularly well for the Yankees (5.40 ERA, 1.31 WHIP), but most of it could be attributed to a sudden spike in walks (10 in 18.1 innings for the Yankees after 16 in 46.2 IP for the Pirates). At $4 million per, Marte could be a good value and probably compares favorably to available left-handed relievers like Alan Embree and about even with Jeremy Affeldt (who signed for $4 million last year). While Dennys Reyes may have been available more cheaply, Marte has more upside and can fit a role beyond a left-handed specialist.
Deal:
Nick Swisher and Kanekoa Texeira are traded to the New York Yankees for Wilson Betemit, Jeff Marquez, and Jhonny Nunez.
Analysis:
Nick Swisher and Jhonny Nunez are the new chlamydia.
It seems like everyone in baseball goes to bed and wakes up with Nick Swisher, he of the legendary "Moneyball" draft where Billy Beane slandered players such as B.J. Upton, Scott Kazmir, Cole Hamels, and Prince Fielder (all, as you know, monumental failures) while drafting first-ballot Hall of Famer Jeremy Brown (at least I assume Golden Tee has a hall of fame) Swisher has been traded twice in the last calendar year and now joins the Yankees, possibly as a center fielder, possibly as a right fielder, and possibly as a first baseman.
Swisher was underwhelming in Chicago, with a .219 batting average, .742 OPS, 24 HR, 69 RBI in 153 games. He almost earned the photo on his MLB Player Card with a pitiful performance. (Note also the obviously superimposed Yankees cap). I've never been a fan of Swisher's, but he's been an adequate corner outfielder in the past. If he's the best the Yankees can do at first base, I'd be pretty astonished.
Kanekoa Texeira is not Mark Teixeira and is not a first baseman, and is not a bad-looking prospect. He served as a closer at high-A Winston-Salem and posted a sub-1.00 ERA before making the move to AA and posting a 2.01 in 22.1 IP there. He's still only 22, but his minor league numbers are impressive and he already has an accomplished slider. He wasn't a prospect in the top 30 for the White Sox according to Baseball America last year, but there's little doubt that was going to change.
The White Sox's biggest acquisition in this deal is Wilson Betemit. The White Sox have holes at every infield spot unless Konerko turns on again this year, so Betemit gives them a little versatility, but doesn't offer much in the way of offense or defense. His best positions appear to be third and first, the two spots that the White Sox seem to have filled with Josh Fields and Paul Konerko. He can play some at second base, but has never been a first option there.
2008 was Betemit's worst season, where he notched a whopping .289 OBP (how he slipped by Dayton Moore's trade radar, I'll never know), drawing 6 walks in 189 at bats. Once hyped as something of a 5-tool prospect, he now has only one recognizable tool that would separate him from the average 4A player, and that tool (power) is only marginal (10 HR is his career high, since no team has seen him fit to play everyday).
Jeff Marquez is a fallen prospect in the Yankees organization. A first round pick in the 2004 draft, Marquez pitched well at AA in 2007, but fell off sharply in AAA and watched his K rate decline even farther, striking out 33 in 80.2 IP. Marquez lives off his ability to throw strikes, but doubled his home run rate in 2008 (12 HR allowed in 80.1 after 11 HR allowed in 155 IP in 2007). For a sinkerballer, a rising home run rate is never encouraging. He's only 24, so another trip through AAA might help him learn to put away hitters, but his high-end projection doesn't seem particularly high. It's a strain to see him figuring in the White Sox rotation in the next couple of years.
Jhonny Nunez has faced more than his share of trades, having been traded to the Nationals from the Dodgers for Marlon Anderson, then being traded from the Nats to the Yankees for AG and Washington insider Alberto Gonzale(s)z. Now he's joining his fourth organization before he's spent a full season in AA. Nunez struggled as a starter at high-A Potomac in the extremely pitcher-friendly Carolina League, but excelled as a reliever in AA.
So why make this deal with Betemit as a centerpiece if you're the White Sox? My best guess is that the White Sox hate Jim Callis and his pristine Baseball America Prospect Handbook, which will identify Marquez as a Yankees prospect. Other than that, they achieve nothing -- they hurt their offense, don't make their team any younger, and fill no immediate needs, while removing an everyday player from their lineup in favor of Jerry Owens and Brian Anderson.
The Chicago Cubs trade for ousted Marlins' closer Kevin Gregg, giving up relief pitching prospect Jose Ceda.
Analysis:
Kevin Gregg was an effective closer up until about August, when the wheels seemed to come off. Although he'd blown 4 saves in the first two months of the season, every one of those saves was a 1-run save. On July 3-4, Gregg blew two straight saves, allowing two runs in each appearance even at that, he settled in, but completely fell apart in August, compiling an ERA of 10.18 after ERAs of 2.51, 2.08, 2.38, and 2.92 in previous months. The Marlins pulled him from the closer's role and replaced him with Matt Lindstrom, who converted all five of his save opportunities.
Gregg improved by leaps and bounds once he got in Florida, and it looks at first glance like it was all traceable to his suddenly unhittable stuff, because batters went from hitting .278 and .280 his last two seasons with the Angels to .206 and .203 his two seasons in Florida. His home run rate dropped dramatically from 10 to 3 after two years in Miami. But, as fangraphs shows us, Gregg's resurgence probably has a lot more to do with good luck (or good team defense -- but in Florida, I'll assume it was luck) than great improvement as a pitcher.
Though his other numbers make it look like all is fine in Kevin Gregg-land, the sharp drop in his K rate indicates that Gregg may be in trouble. After striking out 1.03 an inning in 2007 to 0.84 K/IP, while his walk rate soared from an already career high 0.40 BB/IP in 2007 to a 0.54 BB/IP in 2008. This is a frightening combination, particularly for a pitcher who can be expected to allow more home runs in the Friendly Confines than in the pitcher-friendly confines of Dolphins Stadium. So there's good reason to believe the Cubs aren't getting a dynamite closer/setup man.
What did they give up? Jose Ceda, a 21 year-old fireballing prospect who compiled a 2.08 ERA in AA Tennessee last year. Ceda was rated as the #4 prospect in the Cubs' organization behind untouchable Josh Vitters, NL Rookie of the Year Geovany Soto, and outfielder Tyler Colvin (Ceda was rated ahead of players like Jeff Samardzija, Eric Patterson, and Sean Gallagher -- the latter two of whom were traded in the Rich Harden deal). Though Ceda struggled in the Florida State League, when he got to AA, he blew away hitters, striking out 42 in 30.1 innings. He has struggled with his control at times (31 BB in 46 IP at low-A Peoria in 2007 and about 0.50 BB/IP in A/AA ball last year) and has a tendency to gain weight (last year wavering between 247 and his now-listed 275 pounds).
It's hard to see how this deal makes sense for the Cubs. Only a couple days after making an astonishing deal for low-level prospects who couldn't contribute in the near future, Larry Beinfest makes a deal for a pitcher who's probably only a year away by dealing an overrated closer that seems to have gotten by on luck for the last two years. Gregg may be okay for the Cubs, but doesn't offer much more than was available on the free agent market for what Gregg will cost post-arbitration, and may offer less than Ceda might have in the Majors this year. And Ceda is only 21.
Now, the Cubs have announced that Kerry Wood won't be back. Don't worry about getting swept in the playoffs next year, Cubs fans. With this kind of management, you should finish about fourth.
Deal:
Damaso Marte re-signs with the Yankees for 3 years, $12 million.
Analysis:
I was surprised the Yankees didn't pick up Marte's $6 million option, but they got a potentially better deal by giving Marte a couple extra years.
Marte was an odd player last year thanks to some sample sizes, because lefties hit him considerably better than right-handers (this is not historically the case, however). He didn't pitch particularly well for the Yankees (5.40 ERA, 1.31 WHIP), but most of it could be attributed to a sudden spike in walks (10 in 18.1 innings for the Yankees after 16 in 46.2 IP for the Pirates). At $4 million per, Marte could be a good value and probably compares favorably to available left-handed relievers like Alan Embree and about even with Jeremy Affeldt (who signed for $4 million last year). While Dennys Reyes may have been available more cheaply, Marte has more upside and can fit a role beyond a left-handed specialist.
Deal:
Nick Swisher and Kanekoa Texeira are traded to the New York Yankees for Wilson Betemit, Jeff Marquez, and Jhonny Nunez.
Analysis:
Nick Swisher and Jhonny Nunez are the new chlamydia.
It seems like everyone in baseball goes to bed and wakes up with Nick Swisher, he of the legendary "Moneyball" draft where Billy Beane slandered players such as B.J. Upton, Scott Kazmir, Cole Hamels, and Prince Fielder (all, as you know, monumental failures) while drafting first-ballot Hall of Famer Jeremy Brown (at least I assume Golden Tee has a hall of fame) Swisher has been traded twice in the last calendar year and now joins the Yankees, possibly as a center fielder, possibly as a right fielder, and possibly as a first baseman.
Swisher was underwhelming in Chicago, with a .219 batting average, .742 OPS, 24 HR, 69 RBI in 153 games. He almost earned the photo on his MLB Player Card with a pitiful performance. (Note also the obviously superimposed Yankees cap). I've never been a fan of Swisher's, but he's been an adequate corner outfielder in the past. If he's the best the Yankees can do at first base, I'd be pretty astonished.
Kanekoa Texeira is not Mark Teixeira and is not a first baseman, and is not a bad-looking prospect. He served as a closer at high-A Winston-Salem and posted a sub-1.00 ERA before making the move to AA and posting a 2.01 in 22.1 IP there. He's still only 22, but his minor league numbers are impressive and he already has an accomplished slider. He wasn't a prospect in the top 30 for the White Sox according to Baseball America last year, but there's little doubt that was going to change.
The White Sox's biggest acquisition in this deal is Wilson Betemit. The White Sox have holes at every infield spot unless Konerko turns on again this year, so Betemit gives them a little versatility, but doesn't offer much in the way of offense or defense. His best positions appear to be third and first, the two spots that the White Sox seem to have filled with Josh Fields and Paul Konerko. He can play some at second base, but has never been a first option there.
2008 was Betemit's worst season, where he notched a whopping .289 OBP (how he slipped by Dayton Moore's trade radar, I'll never know), drawing 6 walks in 189 at bats. Once hyped as something of a 5-tool prospect, he now has only one recognizable tool that would separate him from the average 4A player, and that tool (power) is only marginal (10 HR is his career high, since no team has seen him fit to play everyday).
Jeff Marquez is a fallen prospect in the Yankees organization. A first round pick in the 2004 draft, Marquez pitched well at AA in 2007, but fell off sharply in AAA and watched his K rate decline even farther, striking out 33 in 80.2 IP. Marquez lives off his ability to throw strikes, but doubled his home run rate in 2008 (12 HR allowed in 80.1 after 11 HR allowed in 155 IP in 2007). For a sinkerballer, a rising home run rate is never encouraging. He's only 24, so another trip through AAA might help him learn to put away hitters, but his high-end projection doesn't seem particularly high. It's a strain to see him figuring in the White Sox rotation in the next couple of years.
Jhonny Nunez has faced more than his share of trades, having been traded to the Nationals from the Dodgers for Marlon Anderson, then being traded from the Nats to the Yankees for AG and Washington insider Alberto Gonzale(s)z. Now he's joining his fourth organization before he's spent a full season in AA. Nunez struggled as a starter at high-A Potomac in the extremely pitcher-friendly Carolina League, but excelled as a reliever in AA.
So why make this deal with Betemit as a centerpiece if you're the White Sox? My best guess is that the White Sox hate Jim Callis and his pristine Baseball America Prospect Handbook, which will identify Marquez as a Yankees prospect. Other than that, they achieve nothing -- they hurt their offense, don't make their team any younger, and fill no immediate needs, while removing an everyday player from their lineup in favor of Jerry Owens and Brian Anderson.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
NL Central: offseason outlook
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are underproducing at a surprising number of spots for a team that won nearly 100 games in 2008 (2B/SS/CF/RF). The Cubs face a number of free agents: Henry Blanco, Ryan Dempster, Jim Edmonds, Chad Fox, Bobby Howry, Jon Lieber, Daryle Ward (mutual option), and Kerry Wood.
Most likely to return: Kerry Wood seems probable to return after having a mostly successful year as the Cubs' closer. With Trevor Hoffman entering the already saturated market for big money closers, the Cubs are probably Wood's best option.
Most likely to leave: Bob Howry is probably on his way out of Chicago after a largely ineffective 2008 campaign (5.35 ERA) and Jon Lieber is on his way to another minor league contract or retirement.
Non-tender candidates: Koyie Hill is a 29 year old non-prospect at catcher, he's not likely to be kept on the 40-man roster since the Cubs may re-sign Henry Blanco or turn over backup duties to the slugging AAA catcher Jake Fox, who clubbed 31 homers last year at Iowa.
Prospect on the rise: Micah Hoffpauir could be a meaningful bat in right field for the Cubs if he can play the position well enough to stick. His strikeout rate is extremely high (24 in 73 AB), but his power and on-base potential so vastly exceeds what Fukudome produced that he may be worth a long look. Jeff Samardzija was over-hyped in the playoffs and only the Cubs' rapid elimination kept him from suffering the same fate as David Price -- having one great performance in October blown up by sportswriters into a career of near-inevitable Cy Young Awards.
Needs: Right field, center field, pitching depth. For every bit as embarrassing as it was to see Jason Varitek be chosen by the players for the 2008 All-Star game, the fans voting in Kosuke Fukudome was little better, since there actually were outfielders who played well in 2008. Fukudome is a mediocre player with more power than So Taguchi, but who showed little to commend himself as a major league hitter past May. The other spots are only needs if the Cubs don't re-sign their own free agents. Jim Edmonds isn't great, but he played adequately in center field for the Cubs, Ryan Dempster isn't worth what the Cubs will have to pay (and got some Cy Young votes today that I'd have given to Edinson Volquez), but is likely to pitch well enough to bring back if the Cubs don't trust Rich Hill.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: I'm not seeing any.
Free agent ceiling: The Cubs are probably going to stay out of the free agent market, beyond possibly re-signing Dempster and Wood. There is talk that the Tribune Company has already decided they can't sell the entire team in one transaction because of economic issues, so there's little reason to believe the Cubs are going to expand payroll. Their involvement almost certainly caps out at the A.J. Burnett/Derek Lowe/Ryan Dempster tier of free agents.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers mortgaged their future a bit by trading for C.C. Sabathia, who did everything necessary to get the team to the playoffs where the streaky lineup and bad pitching setup (Sabathia unavailable until Game 2 -- and even then on his fifth straight start on short rest) cost them much of a shot of derailing the Phillies. In the meantime, about 50% of the major league roster is entering free agency: Russell Branyan, Craig Counsell, Ray Durham, Eric Gagne, Gabe Kapler, Mike Lamb, Guillermo Mota, C.C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Brian Shouse, and Salomon Torres. (Incidentally, the Brewers' web site is selling things that say "Wild card!" on them...like coffee mugs and picture frames -- a great gift for the mentally unstable psychopaths in your life -- and no one else).
Most likely to return: Gabe Kapler was a useful and productive role player for the Brewers but is unlikely to get a starting job in the majors, so he seems like a probable returnee.
Most likely to leave: Salomon Torres just retired, so we can cross him off the list. Ben Sheets seems to have angered a lot of people in Milwaukee with his frequent injury problems and his unavailability for the NLDS is probably the final straw. Although he's been a relatively talented pitcher, his undependability really doesn't suit the Brewers fan stereotype I envision, who like their players dirty, dingy, and in the lineup. C.C. Sabathia still strikes me as certainly out of Milwaukee, though I'm not buying that he'll sign with the Yankees.
Non-tender candidates: Unless the Brewers feel like Vinny Rottino or Angel Salome is going to take over as the #2 catcher, none. If Rottino is the guy, then Mike Rivera is on his way out.
Prospect on the rise: Mat Gamel may get a shot to play third base in 2009, which could return Bill Hall to the super-sub role he played in 2005 or even replace Weeks at 2B. Gamel was allegedly a target in the Sabathia deal, but the Brewers were unwilling to part with him.
Needs: Pitching. The Brewers are fine in the outfield, though Mike Cameron being worth $10 million still boggles my mind. But they're facing the loss of Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia. While their remaining rotation of Gallardo, Suppan, Bush, Parra, and McClung might be passable, adding a starter in the Randy Wolf mode could shift McClung to the bullpen and give the team more versatility. With most of the 2008 bullpen on the free agent list above, they'll need to make substantial investments in the free agent market just to stand pat.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Rickie Weeks ended up missing the NLDS with a torn meniscus in his knee. While he's likely to be ready for spring training in 2009, it may limit his speed. Chris Capuano missed 2008 with a torn ligament in his elbow and will likely miss a portion of 2009 as well. Yovani Gallardo still needs to build up his stamina after having missed nearly all of 2008 with a torn ACL. David Riske, the most predictable thing in the now-barren Brewers 'pen, had late season surgery on his pitching elbow to remove a bone spur, but will almost certainly be ready for Spring Training.
Free agent ceiling: The Brewers allegedly made a huge offer to Sabathia, but unless he accepts it, I don't think they're going to be players in the free agent market beyond simply replacing the parts they're losing. Even then, I think the prospect-heavy organization may be more inclined to seek trades for pre-free agency types like Huston Street.
Houston Astros
The Astros looked dreadful early on, stung by the Brad Lidge trade that produced modest dividends for the Astros (Geoff Geary did notch a 2.52 ERA, but Michael Bourn provided nothing (.288 OBP) at the top of the lineup) and a cringeworthy debut from catcher J.R. Towles. Powered by an astounding season from Lance Berkman and a resurgence from Roy Oswalt's slow start, the Astros nearly finished their season in October. Their looming free agents are useful pieces, but not exactly cornerstones: Brad Ausmus, Doug Brocail, Mark Loretta, Randy Wolf.
Most likely to return: Although the Astros declined a reasonably priced option on Doug Brocail at $3.25 million, Brocail is a year-round Houston resident and isn't a big-ticket free agent for any clubs (though he would fit in a number of bullpens). Wolf may well return as well.
Most likely to leave: If Brad Ausmus is going to play in 2009, it will be in a location closer to his home in San Diego. My gut is that he'll call the Mariners and see if he can take over as a player-manager starting tomorrow.
Non-tender candidates: None.
Prospect on the rise: J.R. Towles is going to have to seize the catcher's job in Houston in 2009. After a dreadful start to the season, Towles spent most of the year back at AAA. Drew Sutton had a nice season at AA ball and may be in line to spell or displace the woeful Kaz Matsui by September. The Astros signed Taiwanese closer Chia-Jen Lo, but he sounds like he's a couple years away. It's hard to tell with any certainty, though.
Needs: Catcher, center field, starting pitching. The only thing the Astros will likely target in free agency is pitching, because they still have J.R. Towles and Michael Bourn to fill the first two slots. Those players' production in 2008 is the reason to believe these are team needs, though. Behind Roy Oswalt, the Astros have no sure thing starters -- Brandon Backe registered a 6.05 ERA, Wandy Rodriguez missed another stretch of time with injuries, and Brian Moehler only made the rotation because of injury.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Chris Sampson needed non-Tommy John elbow surgery that will likely sideline him for at least a month of the regular season in 2009. Geoff Geary had surgery on a torn abdominal muscle and on his hip right after the season ended. While he should be ready by spring training, rehabbing the injuries may leave him in less than optimal condition for the season.
Free agent ceiling: Andy Pettitte or Randy Wolf are probably the top of the line for the Astros, who turned in a surprising season on the backs of unexpectedly competent performances from Kaz Matsui and Ty Wigginton.
St. Louis Cardinals
The forgotten story of 2008 is that the Cardinals, not the Cubs, led the NL Central for much of the season. It wasn't until the Brewers acquired Sabathia and the Cubs landed Rich Harden that the tide started to turn on the Cardinals. The Cards face a number of potential defections, none of which is likely to be particularly damaging: Juan Encarnacion, Jason Isringhausen, Cesar Izturis, Braden Looper, Felipe Lopez, Mark Mulder, Russ Springer, Ron Villone
Most likely to return: Felipe Lopez resurrected his season once landing with the Cardinals (.385/.425/.538) and provides defensive versatility, being ham-handed at both second base and shortstop. Since both positions are wastelands in the Cardinals organization right now, Lopez makes a lot of sense. Russ Springer had a career year for the Cardinals with a 2.32 ERA in 70 games for the Cardinals. He's considering retirement, but if he returns, it'll certainly be to the Cardinals.
Most likely to leave: Mark Mulder wasn't Mozeliak's guy in the first place, it wouldn't be surprising to see him end up back with Walt Jocketty in Cincinnati. In the meantime, Mulder's said he won't sign anywhere until he's ready to pitch. Cesar Izturis didn't make many fans in St. Louis and has too little upside to consider keeping.
Non-tender candidates: None.
Prospect on the rise: Jason Motte may be the best reliever in the Cardinals organization in 2009 and he certainly looked solid in 2008, making 12 appearances with a 0.82 ERA. In AAA, he struck out an astonishing 110 batters in 66 2/3 innings. So it sure looks like he may be ready. Colby Rasmus was supposed to be the center fielder of 2008. Instead, he sputtered in the minor leagues, finally got on track, and then got injured. His star has probably fallen in St. Louis, but he's a valuable trade piece and may make the major league roster at some point in 2009.
Needs: Middle infielders, a starter, and relief pitching. Chris Perez is likely to take the reins as the closer for the Cardinals at some point in the next two years, but it seems likely that the Cardinals would like to get someone more experienced in that bullpen while they're on the verge of contending. If they lose Villone and Springer, the bullpen will be pretty empty unless the Cardinals make moves.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Chris Carpenter's health pretty much dictates the Cardinals' rotation. A rotation headed by Wainwright and Carpenter is good. A rotation headed by Wainwright and Kyle Lohse or Todd Wellemeyer is bad. Chris Duncan's neck injuries sank most of his season, but if he returns healthy, the Cardinals have a formidable outfield of Ludwick/Ankiel/Duncan/Schumacker/Barton with Rasmus on the horizon.
Free agent ceiling: The Cardinals will likely make an offer to a free agent closer -- more likely to be Brian Fuentes than K-Rod. That's probably as much as they can spend, though, especially after overpaying horribly for Kyle Lohse (4 years, $41 million).
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds were dragged down by a dreadful year from Aaron Harang, a woeful start for the eventually-effective Bronson Arroyo, and a dearth of production from catcher, shortstop, and center field. The bullpen woes of years past were ameliorated a bit, but still loom over a team on the verge of losing effective relievers to free agency. The Reds are laden with free agents: David Weathers, Jeremy Affeldt, Paul Bako, Josh Fogg, Jerry Hairston, Mike Lincoln, Kent Mercker, Corey Patterson, Javier Valentin.
Most likely to return: Jerry Hairston had a career year with the Reds and got a chance to play every day when he was healthy. As one of the two Dusty Baker specials the Reds brought in near the end of spring training, he knows he'll have a lengthy opportunity to play in Cincinnati.
Most likely to leave: Corey Patterson was a favorite of Dusty Baker's, reminding the Reds just why Wayne Krivsky was so foolish to have hired Dusty Baker. Patterson is probably en route to Japan or a minor league deal after a woeful 2008. Paul Bako won't be back.
Non-tender candidates: God willing, Andy Phillips. In other words, no chance of any.
Prospect on the rise: Homer Bailey no longer counts, since he's become something of a marginal prospect at best. Daryl Thompson may have a role on the major league club after showing something in his debut start with the Reds, but will have to beat out Micah Owings for the fifth spot in the rotation. Chris Dickerson showed off some of his tremendous potential in 2008 and won't have much competition to push him in 2008. Ryan Hanigan wasn't a major prospect in the organization before last season, but looks poised to be the Reds' everyday catcher barring a misguided acquisition of Ivan Rodriguez or Jason Varitek.
Needs: Catcher, shortstop, outfield depth. The black hole behind the plate for the Reds was horrific in 2008. David Ross, Paul Bako, and Javier Valentin mustered a whopping 13 home runs and a .230 batting average. Although Ryan Hanigan showed promise in September, the Reds need someone else behind the plate since Devin Mesoraco is probably two years away. If Ryan Freel and Norris Hopper can stay healthy, the Reds may have an adequate outfield, but that's a bet that not even Pete Rose would make.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Alex Gonzalez's knee fracture robbed Reds' fans of his particular brand of offensive ineptitude in 2008, Jeff Keppinger looked lousy after breaking his own knee. Ryan Freel's injuries took him out of commission for 2008 and Norris Hopper barely made an appearance before tearing his ulnar collateral ligament and missed much of 2008.
Free agent ceiling: The Reds were a surprise player in signing Francisco Cordero last year, but don't seem likely to make a big investment again this year because the market for players who could really improve the team is pretty sparse. After dealing Griffey and Dunn, though, the money's there. I'd say that there's a 1 in 20 chance that Raul Ibanez, Bobby Abreu, or Pat Burrell play home games in Great American Ballpark next year, but other than that, re-signing Weathers and Affeldt would be the biggest investments Jocketty should be able to justify. If the Reds do attempt to make a splash, it will probably be in signing one of the broken-down catchers -- Varitek or Rodriguez, so Reds fans should probably hope for a very placid offseason.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates traded their best player in 2008, got Nate McLouth to win a gold glove as the worst defensive center fielder in the Majors, and got another LaRoche brother for their fans to turn on. The good news? This team isn't getting any worse and Chris Antonetti has made some solid moves in his first season as GM. Now just watch him sign Derek "Operation shutdown" Bell. Free agents for the Pirates: Chris Gomez, Jason Michaels, Doug Mientkiewicz, and Luis Rivas.
Most likely to return: Probably Mientkiewicz. He was versatile and dropped the attitude in Pittsburgh, playing first and third base, and compiled a solid OBP (.374). He's got absolutely no home run power, but he's not a drain on this team's offense. He'll likely be back.
Jason Michaels fell a long way in a big hurry, but the Pirates seem interested in bringing him back. His .652 OPS shouldn't fit any team's plans, though he did hit remarkably well with runners in scoring position (.321/.365/.548), so perhaps Neal Huntington worships at the illusory altar of clutch? If so, be ready with the fetal position, Bucs fans.
Most likely to leave: Chris Gomez is a serviceable enough utility infielder that he should catch on with a team a little more likely to contend and add a 9th major league club to his resume.
Non-tender candidates: Not around here.
Prospect on the rise: Andrew McCutchen could stand to improve his Juan Pierre-like stolen base technique (34 SB in 53 attempts at AAA Indianapolis), but doesn't seem likely to get much out of another trip to Indianapolis next year. With the Pirates' outfield decimated by the injury to Brandon Moss and dependence on Nate McLouth's apparently golden glove, they could use another catalyst. The real bad news is that there are no pitchers on the horizon, so another 6th place finish is nearly certain.
Needs: Jack Wilson's retirement speech, outfielders, starting pitching. Jack Wilson continues to be rumored in trades for honest-to-god major leaguers (this year's was Matt Kemp), but it's impossible to get around his aggressive mediocrity (.687 career OPS). If there's a team who will take him, the Pirates need to move him and get the money they're paying him back in their bank accounts. After trading Xavier Nady and Jason Bay in 2008, it's unsurprising there's no corner outfielders ready to go in the system, but Brandon Moss and Steve Pearce are not even acceptable as stopgap players. If McCutchen gets the CF job and moves McLouth to LF, things look a lot better, but the team still needs someone who can be productive. The starting pitchers the Pirates have assembled have shown nothing to indicate that they were who they were purported to be. Ross Ohlendorf and Jeff Karstens are in the mix now, Ian Snell probably has a guranteed spot after a shockingly awful season (1.76 WHIP), this is a team in need of help. Zach Duke was bad last year, but only bad. He's in. Maholm was actually decent. He's in.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Brandon Moss will probably miss at least a month of the regular season after late-season surgery on his knee. Phil Dumatrait missed 2008 with shoulder surgery and will likely still be rehabbing as Spring Training rolls around.
Free agent ceiling: The Pirates will continue their trend of bargain-basement shopping. There's no real reason for them to try to invest in big-time players because they'd have to overpay badly for them in any event. There's probably going to be a lot of Josh Fogg/Sidney Ponson signings, but few guaranteed major league deals.
The Cubs are underproducing at a surprising number of spots for a team that won nearly 100 games in 2008 (2B/SS/CF/RF). The Cubs face a number of free agents: Henry Blanco, Ryan Dempster, Jim Edmonds, Chad Fox, Bobby Howry, Jon Lieber, Daryle Ward (mutual option), and Kerry Wood.
Most likely to return: Kerry Wood seems probable to return after having a mostly successful year as the Cubs' closer. With Trevor Hoffman entering the already saturated market for big money closers, the Cubs are probably Wood's best option.
Most likely to leave: Bob Howry is probably on his way out of Chicago after a largely ineffective 2008 campaign (5.35 ERA) and Jon Lieber is on his way to another minor league contract or retirement.
Non-tender candidates: Koyie Hill is a 29 year old non-prospect at catcher, he's not likely to be kept on the 40-man roster since the Cubs may re-sign Henry Blanco or turn over backup duties to the slugging AAA catcher Jake Fox, who clubbed 31 homers last year at Iowa.
Prospect on the rise: Micah Hoffpauir could be a meaningful bat in right field for the Cubs if he can play the position well enough to stick. His strikeout rate is extremely high (24 in 73 AB), but his power and on-base potential so vastly exceeds what Fukudome produced that he may be worth a long look. Jeff Samardzija was over-hyped in the playoffs and only the Cubs' rapid elimination kept him from suffering the same fate as David Price -- having one great performance in October blown up by sportswriters into a career of near-inevitable Cy Young Awards.
Needs: Right field, center field, pitching depth. For every bit as embarrassing as it was to see Jason Varitek be chosen by the players for the 2008 All-Star game, the fans voting in Kosuke Fukudome was little better, since there actually were outfielders who played well in 2008. Fukudome is a mediocre player with more power than So Taguchi, but who showed little to commend himself as a major league hitter past May. The other spots are only needs if the Cubs don't re-sign their own free agents. Jim Edmonds isn't great, but he played adequately in center field for the Cubs, Ryan Dempster isn't worth what the Cubs will have to pay (and got some Cy Young votes today that I'd have given to Edinson Volquez), but is likely to pitch well enough to bring back if the Cubs don't trust Rich Hill.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: I'm not seeing any.
Free agent ceiling: The Cubs are probably going to stay out of the free agent market, beyond possibly re-signing Dempster and Wood. There is talk that the Tribune Company has already decided they can't sell the entire team in one transaction because of economic issues, so there's little reason to believe the Cubs are going to expand payroll. Their involvement almost certainly caps out at the A.J. Burnett/Derek Lowe/Ryan Dempster tier of free agents.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers mortgaged their future a bit by trading for C.C. Sabathia, who did everything necessary to get the team to the playoffs where the streaky lineup and bad pitching setup (Sabathia unavailable until Game 2 -- and even then on his fifth straight start on short rest) cost them much of a shot of derailing the Phillies. In the meantime, about 50% of the major league roster is entering free agency: Russell Branyan, Craig Counsell, Ray Durham, Eric Gagne, Gabe Kapler, Mike Lamb, Guillermo Mota, C.C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Brian Shouse, and Salomon Torres. (Incidentally, the Brewers' web site is selling things that say "Wild card!" on them...like coffee mugs and picture frames -- a great gift for the mentally unstable psychopaths in your life -- and no one else).
Most likely to return: Gabe Kapler was a useful and productive role player for the Brewers but is unlikely to get a starting job in the majors, so he seems like a probable returnee.
Most likely to leave: Salomon Torres just retired, so we can cross him off the list. Ben Sheets seems to have angered a lot of people in Milwaukee with his frequent injury problems and his unavailability for the NLDS is probably the final straw. Although he's been a relatively talented pitcher, his undependability really doesn't suit the Brewers fan stereotype I envision, who like their players dirty, dingy, and in the lineup. C.C. Sabathia still strikes me as certainly out of Milwaukee, though I'm not buying that he'll sign with the Yankees.
Non-tender candidates: Unless the Brewers feel like Vinny Rottino or Angel Salome is going to take over as the #2 catcher, none. If Rottino is the guy, then Mike Rivera is on his way out.
Prospect on the rise: Mat Gamel may get a shot to play third base in 2009, which could return Bill Hall to the super-sub role he played in 2005 or even replace Weeks at 2B. Gamel was allegedly a target in the Sabathia deal, but the Brewers were unwilling to part with him.
Needs: Pitching. The Brewers are fine in the outfield, though Mike Cameron being worth $10 million still boggles my mind. But they're facing the loss of Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia. While their remaining rotation of Gallardo, Suppan, Bush, Parra, and McClung might be passable, adding a starter in the Randy Wolf mode could shift McClung to the bullpen and give the team more versatility. With most of the 2008 bullpen on the free agent list above, they'll need to make substantial investments in the free agent market just to stand pat.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Rickie Weeks ended up missing the NLDS with a torn meniscus in his knee. While he's likely to be ready for spring training in 2009, it may limit his speed. Chris Capuano missed 2008 with a torn ligament in his elbow and will likely miss a portion of 2009 as well. Yovani Gallardo still needs to build up his stamina after having missed nearly all of 2008 with a torn ACL. David Riske, the most predictable thing in the now-barren Brewers 'pen, had late season surgery on his pitching elbow to remove a bone spur, but will almost certainly be ready for Spring Training.
Free agent ceiling: The Brewers allegedly made a huge offer to Sabathia, but unless he accepts it, I don't think they're going to be players in the free agent market beyond simply replacing the parts they're losing. Even then, I think the prospect-heavy organization may be more inclined to seek trades for pre-free agency types like Huston Street.
Houston Astros
The Astros looked dreadful early on, stung by the Brad Lidge trade that produced modest dividends for the Astros (Geoff Geary did notch a 2.52 ERA, but Michael Bourn provided nothing (.288 OBP) at the top of the lineup) and a cringeworthy debut from catcher J.R. Towles. Powered by an astounding season from Lance Berkman and a resurgence from Roy Oswalt's slow start, the Astros nearly finished their season in October. Their looming free agents are useful pieces, but not exactly cornerstones: Brad Ausmus, Doug Brocail, Mark Loretta, Randy Wolf.
Most likely to return: Although the Astros declined a reasonably priced option on Doug Brocail at $3.25 million, Brocail is a year-round Houston resident and isn't a big-ticket free agent for any clubs (though he would fit in a number of bullpens). Wolf may well return as well.
Most likely to leave: If Brad Ausmus is going to play in 2009, it will be in a location closer to his home in San Diego. My gut is that he'll call the Mariners and see if he can take over as a player-manager starting tomorrow.
Non-tender candidates: None.
Prospect on the rise: J.R. Towles is going to have to seize the catcher's job in Houston in 2009. After a dreadful start to the season, Towles spent most of the year back at AAA. Drew Sutton had a nice season at AA ball and may be in line to spell or displace the woeful Kaz Matsui by September. The Astros signed Taiwanese closer Chia-Jen Lo, but he sounds like he's a couple years away. It's hard to tell with any certainty, though.
Needs: Catcher, center field, starting pitching. The only thing the Astros will likely target in free agency is pitching, because they still have J.R. Towles and Michael Bourn to fill the first two slots. Those players' production in 2008 is the reason to believe these are team needs, though. Behind Roy Oswalt, the Astros have no sure thing starters -- Brandon Backe registered a 6.05 ERA, Wandy Rodriguez missed another stretch of time with injuries, and Brian Moehler only made the rotation because of injury.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Chris Sampson needed non-Tommy John elbow surgery that will likely sideline him for at least a month of the regular season in 2009. Geoff Geary had surgery on a torn abdominal muscle and on his hip right after the season ended. While he should be ready by spring training, rehabbing the injuries may leave him in less than optimal condition for the season.
Free agent ceiling: Andy Pettitte or Randy Wolf are probably the top of the line for the Astros, who turned in a surprising season on the backs of unexpectedly competent performances from Kaz Matsui and Ty Wigginton.
St. Louis Cardinals
The forgotten story of 2008 is that the Cardinals, not the Cubs, led the NL Central for much of the season. It wasn't until the Brewers acquired Sabathia and the Cubs landed Rich Harden that the tide started to turn on the Cardinals. The Cards face a number of potential defections, none of which is likely to be particularly damaging: Juan Encarnacion, Jason Isringhausen, Cesar Izturis, Braden Looper, Felipe Lopez, Mark Mulder, Russ Springer, Ron Villone
Most likely to return: Felipe Lopez resurrected his season once landing with the Cardinals (.385/.425/.538) and provides defensive versatility, being ham-handed at both second base and shortstop. Since both positions are wastelands in the Cardinals organization right now, Lopez makes a lot of sense. Russ Springer had a career year for the Cardinals with a 2.32 ERA in 70 games for the Cardinals. He's considering retirement, but if he returns, it'll certainly be to the Cardinals.
Most likely to leave: Mark Mulder wasn't Mozeliak's guy in the first place, it wouldn't be surprising to see him end up back with Walt Jocketty in Cincinnati. In the meantime, Mulder's said he won't sign anywhere until he's ready to pitch. Cesar Izturis didn't make many fans in St. Louis and has too little upside to consider keeping.
Non-tender candidates: None.
Prospect on the rise: Jason Motte may be the best reliever in the Cardinals organization in 2009 and he certainly looked solid in 2008, making 12 appearances with a 0.82 ERA. In AAA, he struck out an astonishing 110 batters in 66 2/3 innings. So it sure looks like he may be ready. Colby Rasmus was supposed to be the center fielder of 2008. Instead, he sputtered in the minor leagues, finally got on track, and then got injured. His star has probably fallen in St. Louis, but he's a valuable trade piece and may make the major league roster at some point in 2009.
Needs: Middle infielders, a starter, and relief pitching. Chris Perez is likely to take the reins as the closer for the Cardinals at some point in the next two years, but it seems likely that the Cardinals would like to get someone more experienced in that bullpen while they're on the verge of contending. If they lose Villone and Springer, the bullpen will be pretty empty unless the Cardinals make moves.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Chris Carpenter's health pretty much dictates the Cardinals' rotation. A rotation headed by Wainwright and Carpenter is good. A rotation headed by Wainwright and Kyle Lohse or Todd Wellemeyer is bad. Chris Duncan's neck injuries sank most of his season, but if he returns healthy, the Cardinals have a formidable outfield of Ludwick/Ankiel/Duncan/Schumacker/Barton with Rasmus on the horizon.
Free agent ceiling: The Cardinals will likely make an offer to a free agent closer -- more likely to be Brian Fuentes than K-Rod. That's probably as much as they can spend, though, especially after overpaying horribly for Kyle Lohse (4 years, $41 million).
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds were dragged down by a dreadful year from Aaron Harang, a woeful start for the eventually-effective Bronson Arroyo, and a dearth of production from catcher, shortstop, and center field. The bullpen woes of years past were ameliorated a bit, but still loom over a team on the verge of losing effective relievers to free agency. The Reds are laden with free agents: David Weathers, Jeremy Affeldt, Paul Bako, Josh Fogg, Jerry Hairston, Mike Lincoln, Kent Mercker, Corey Patterson, Javier Valentin.
Most likely to return: Jerry Hairston had a career year with the Reds and got a chance to play every day when he was healthy. As one of the two Dusty Baker specials the Reds brought in near the end of spring training, he knows he'll have a lengthy opportunity to play in Cincinnati.
Most likely to leave: Corey Patterson was a favorite of Dusty Baker's, reminding the Reds just why Wayne Krivsky was so foolish to have hired Dusty Baker. Patterson is probably en route to Japan or a minor league deal after a woeful 2008. Paul Bako won't be back.
Non-tender candidates: God willing, Andy Phillips. In other words, no chance of any.
Prospect on the rise: Homer Bailey no longer counts, since he's become something of a marginal prospect at best. Daryl Thompson may have a role on the major league club after showing something in his debut start with the Reds, but will have to beat out Micah Owings for the fifth spot in the rotation. Chris Dickerson showed off some of his tremendous potential in 2008 and won't have much competition to push him in 2008. Ryan Hanigan wasn't a major prospect in the organization before last season, but looks poised to be the Reds' everyday catcher barring a misguided acquisition of Ivan Rodriguez or Jason Varitek.
Needs: Catcher, shortstop, outfield depth. The black hole behind the plate for the Reds was horrific in 2008. David Ross, Paul Bako, and Javier Valentin mustered a whopping 13 home runs and a .230 batting average. Although Ryan Hanigan showed promise in September, the Reds need someone else behind the plate since Devin Mesoraco is probably two years away. If Ryan Freel and Norris Hopper can stay healthy, the Reds may have an adequate outfield, but that's a bet that not even Pete Rose would make.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Alex Gonzalez's knee fracture robbed Reds' fans of his particular brand of offensive ineptitude in 2008, Jeff Keppinger looked lousy after breaking his own knee. Ryan Freel's injuries took him out of commission for 2008 and Norris Hopper barely made an appearance before tearing his ulnar collateral ligament and missed much of 2008.
Free agent ceiling: The Reds were a surprise player in signing Francisco Cordero last year, but don't seem likely to make a big investment again this year because the market for players who could really improve the team is pretty sparse. After dealing Griffey and Dunn, though, the money's there. I'd say that there's a 1 in 20 chance that Raul Ibanez, Bobby Abreu, or Pat Burrell play home games in Great American Ballpark next year, but other than that, re-signing Weathers and Affeldt would be the biggest investments Jocketty should be able to justify. If the Reds do attempt to make a splash, it will probably be in signing one of the broken-down catchers -- Varitek or Rodriguez, so Reds fans should probably hope for a very placid offseason.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates traded their best player in 2008, got Nate McLouth to win a gold glove as the worst defensive center fielder in the Majors, and got another LaRoche brother for their fans to turn on. The good news? This team isn't getting any worse and Chris Antonetti has made some solid moves in his first season as GM. Now just watch him sign Derek "Operation shutdown" Bell. Free agents for the Pirates: Chris Gomez, Jason Michaels, Doug Mientkiewicz, and Luis Rivas.
Most likely to return: Probably Mientkiewicz. He was versatile and dropped the attitude in Pittsburgh, playing first and third base, and compiled a solid OBP (.374). He's got absolutely no home run power, but he's not a drain on this team's offense. He'll likely be back.
Jason Michaels fell a long way in a big hurry, but the Pirates seem interested in bringing him back. His .652 OPS shouldn't fit any team's plans, though he did hit remarkably well with runners in scoring position (.321/.365/.548), so perhaps Neal Huntington worships at the illusory altar of clutch? If so, be ready with the fetal position, Bucs fans.
Most likely to leave: Chris Gomez is a serviceable enough utility infielder that he should catch on with a team a little more likely to contend and add a 9th major league club to his resume.
Non-tender candidates: Not around here.
Prospect on the rise: Andrew McCutchen could stand to improve his Juan Pierre-like stolen base technique (34 SB in 53 attempts at AAA Indianapolis), but doesn't seem likely to get much out of another trip to Indianapolis next year. With the Pirates' outfield decimated by the injury to Brandon Moss and dependence on Nate McLouth's apparently golden glove, they could use another catalyst. The real bad news is that there are no pitchers on the horizon, so another 6th place finish is nearly certain.
Needs: Jack Wilson's retirement speech, outfielders, starting pitching. Jack Wilson continues to be rumored in trades for honest-to-god major leaguers (this year's was Matt Kemp), but it's impossible to get around his aggressive mediocrity (.687 career OPS). If there's a team who will take him, the Pirates need to move him and get the money they're paying him back in their bank accounts. After trading Xavier Nady and Jason Bay in 2008, it's unsurprising there's no corner outfielders ready to go in the system, but Brandon Moss and Steve Pearce are not even acceptable as stopgap players. If McCutchen gets the CF job and moves McLouth to LF, things look a lot better, but the team still needs someone who can be productive. The starting pitchers the Pirates have assembled have shown nothing to indicate that they were who they were purported to be. Ross Ohlendorf and Jeff Karstens are in the mix now, Ian Snell probably has a guranteed spot after a shockingly awful season (1.76 WHIP), this is a team in need of help. Zach Duke was bad last year, but only bad. He's in. Maholm was actually decent. He's in.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Brandon Moss will probably miss at least a month of the regular season after late-season surgery on his knee. Phil Dumatrait missed 2008 with shoulder surgery and will likely still be rehabbing as Spring Training rolls around.
Free agent ceiling: The Pirates will continue their trend of bargain-basement shopping. There's no real reason for them to try to invest in big-time players because they'd have to overpay badly for them in any event. There's probably going to be a lot of Josh Fogg/Sidney Ponson signings, but few guaranteed major league deals.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
A brief digression -- how the NL Cy Young vote proves democracy/idiocracy doesn't work
Tim Lincecum wins the NL Cy Young.
What puzzles me the most is that C.C. Sabathia got 3 votes (1 first, 1 second, and 1 third).
I understand the first place vote.
But who on earth concludes that he gets a second place vote? Or a third?
There are only two sensible positions to take.
1) Sabathia didn't pitch enough in the National League to prove that he was the best pitcher in the league -- the Cy Young is a year-long award.
2) Sabathia was far and away the best pitcher in the National League, even on three days' rest, he was phenomenal and was the key to the Brewers' playoff run. His ERA was Bob Gibson-level fantastic and no pitcher meant more to his team.
There is no "well, Sabathia only pitched half the season in the National League, therefore, he's the second or third best pitcher in the National League."
Too dumb for words. While it's exceptionally rare that there's someone who is so clearly empirically better than another that this is the case, this is definitely that case.
Yesterday was another proof of democracy not working, with Edinson Volquez receiving three second place votes for Rookie of the Year, even though he was not a rookie. The people casting those votes should have their votes taken away from them.
What puzzles me the most is that C.C. Sabathia got 3 votes (1 first, 1 second, and 1 third).
I understand the first place vote.
But who on earth concludes that he gets a second place vote? Or a third?
There are only two sensible positions to take.
1) Sabathia didn't pitch enough in the National League to prove that he was the best pitcher in the league -- the Cy Young is a year-long award.
2) Sabathia was far and away the best pitcher in the National League, even on three days' rest, he was phenomenal and was the key to the Brewers' playoff run. His ERA was Bob Gibson-level fantastic and no pitcher meant more to his team.
There is no "well, Sabathia only pitched half the season in the National League, therefore, he's the second or third best pitcher in the National League."
Too dumb for words. While it's exceptionally rare that there's someone who is so clearly empirically better than another that this is the case, this is definitely that case.
Yesterday was another proof of democracy not working, with Edinson Volquez receiving three second place votes for Rookie of the Year, even though he was not a rookie. The people casting those votes should have their votes taken away from them.
AL East: Offseason Outlook
Offseason outlook:
AL East
Tampa Bay Rays:
Rocco Baldelli, Cliff Floyd, Eric Hinske and Trever Miller are all free agents. Floyd and Miller both had their options declined, Cliff Floyd will likely end the not-so-illustrious career that peaked when he was on the cover of Beckett Baseball Card Monthly in May 1994. Oh, and he won a World Series, but I'm pretty sure he had little to do with that. Curse you, Craig Counsell/Edgar Renteria/Tony Fernandez/Jose Mesa.
Most Likely to Return: Hinske, I guess, though I'd put those odds considerably longer than the Rays repeating the AL pennant. Hinske played relatively well for half a season but fell off a cliff in the second half and was only on the World Series roster after Floyd was removed for an injury.
Most likely to leave: Trever Miller's option got declined not because it was prohibitively expensive, but because the Rays feel they have a bullpen surplus where J.P. Howell and possibly David Price will provide left-handed arms. He'll find another job.
Non-tender candidates: Jonny Gomes continued his decline in 2008, finishing with an OPS+ of 73 and finishing the year in AAA. Though the Rays will lose Cliff Floyd and possibly Rocco Baldelli, Gomes' defensive deficiencies and offensive ineptitude may lead to him finding a new line of work in the offseason.
Prospect on the rise: Enough has been said about David Price for now. Jeff Niemann has taken longer than expected, but looks to be ready for the major leagues, Wade Davis and James Houser are probably less than a year away as well. Though Reid Brignac didn't hit much at AAA, he may figure on the club as a utility infielder in 2009.
Needs: A right fielder, DH, and a backup catcher. Catcher isn't a pressing position if Dioner Navarro maintains his durability and bat, but both seem unlikely. The Rays could probably live through a season of Gabe Gross, Ben Zobrist, Fernando Perez, and maybe Willy Aybar in right field, but it wouldn't take too much to improve upon it. Similarly, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Rays pick up a few minor league free agents to try and fill the DH spot.
Injuries that could figure in 2009:
Free agent ceiling: The rumors linking the Rays to Pat Burrell seem pretty implausible. Though the team could use a corner outfielder/DH, their budget won't likely expand that much.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have a number of free agents, but none of whom played a pivotal role in the playoff run in 2008. Free agents are: Paul Byrd, Sean Casey, Bartolo Colon, Alex Cora, Mark Kotsay, David Ross, Curt Schilling, Mike Timlin, Jason Varitek.
Most likely to return: Alex Cora is the only player on this list who I could envision the Red Sox making a serious effort to re-sign aside from the woeful Varitek, who was one of the worst players in Major League Baseball last year. Cora would help as a defensive replacement and could play behind Jed Lowrie and Dustin Pedroia if the Red Sox can trade Julio Lugo's ugly contract in the offseason.
Most likely to leave: Mark Kotsay played pretty poorly for the Red Sox after being brought in to fill an outfield role and eventually being trainsitioned to first base. He had played adequately for the Braves, but his injury-prone nature and limited power and speed have drastically reduced his value on the market.
Non-tender candidates: The Red Sox are unlikely to non-tender anyone, since their roster is likely to thin out after the free agent signing period begins.
Prospect on the rise: Lars Anderson may resolve the need for a first baseman if Youkilis should move to third to replace Lowell.
Needs: The Red Sox need little help anywhere, but could use another arm in the bullpen to put with Papelbon, Okajima, Justin Masterson, Manny Delcarmen, and Javier Lopez. They could also use another option at either first base or third base to cover for Mike Lowell's injury.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Mike Lowell's hip may limit his production in 2009, if he bounces back to play at all. Josh Beckett's health will be a topic of perpetual discussion between now and spring training. Julio Lugo's torn quadricep will limit his already minimal trade value and J.D. Drew is rarely healthy for an entire season.
Free agent ceiling: The Red Sox are unlikely to make any major signings since Sabathia doesn't fill a need, Manny Ramirez is unwelcome, and Mark Teixeira is expensive. Brian Fuentes may interest the Red Sox as a setup man, but the cost may exceed his value to the Red Sox.
New York Yankees
The Yankees are an old team with no pitching and they're on the verge of losing some of the most talented pieces they have. The Yankees' free agents are a tale of misguided acquisitions or players who could no longer deliver -- Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, Damaso Marte, Chad Moeller, Mike Mussina, Carl Pavano, Andy Pettitte, Sidney Ponson, Ivan Rodriguez, Richie Sexson
Most likely to return: Mike Mussina will decide whether he will retire or pitch for the Yankees in 2009, but I think the opportunity to start opening day to open a new Yankee Stadium will persuade him to stick around for one more year. I think Giambi and Abreu may also return, since the market for both players will be tepid and the Yankees don't have ready-made players at 1B or RF, but much depends on whether Teixeira signs with the Yankees.
Most likely to leave: Carl Pavano is a reminder of Cashman's failed efforts over the last decade as a GM, and I don't think there's any way the Yankees' fans would permit his return.
Non-tender candidates: The Yankees will want to move some of their current roster, but are unlikely to non-tender anyone like Melky Cabrera, who they continue to pitch in trades.
Prospect on the rise: Austin Jackson could take the CF job from the mishmash of Brett Gardner and Melky Cabrera at some point in 2009. He didn't do anything remarkable at Trenton (OPS of .773), but his primary competitor (Gardner) has less power and didn't show a propensity to reach base in the majors.
Needs: Pitching, first base, and center field. For a team with a mammoth payroll, so much is tied up in the left side of the infield that it masks the woeful production the Yankees can expect from their current projected outfield of Johnny Damon/Brett Gardner/Melky Cabrera and Xavier Nady. Signing Manny Ramirez would give them a productive left fielder, but would also force Damon/Gardner/Cabrera to play center field. First base is a hole with Giambi gone, unless the Yankees can convince Jorge Posada to remain healthy and move from behind the plate (in which case the Yankees have a hole at catcher). Most of all, though, the Yankees lack any pitching. If the season began today, the Yankees' starting rotation would have fewer than 23 career wins after their ace-- with Chien-Ming Wang followed by Joba Chamberlain, Phillip Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Darrell Rasner (or 15 career wins with Alfredo Aceves). While it's quite possible that Wang and Chamberlain would be a dominant 1-2 combination sufficient to win another division, it doesn't compare to the Rays, Sox, or Jays. They need to add at least two starters, and probably three. If the Yankees don't re-sign Marte, they have no left-handers in the bullpen, so a move would be necessary there as well.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Chien-Ming Wang will be back in 2009, but it's unclear whether he'll have any lingering effects from his lis franc injury. Jorge Posada is coming back from a partially torn labrum that should heal by 2009, but his age has to give the Yankees concern about depending on him for more than about 80 games. Joba Chamberlain's rotator cuff tendinitis ended his season prematurely, which means he may still not be ready to spend a full season in the rotation.
Free agent ceiling: Are you kidding? This is the Yankees. They're not going to sign Mark Teixeira, Manny Ramirez, and C.C. Sabathia, but two out of three isn't even unlikely, let alone implausible.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays have already had a busy offseason, raiding other teams 40-man castaways -- including Les Walron (Phillies), Bryan Bullington (Indians), Angel Sanchez (Royals), Kelvin Jimenez (Cardinals), and Adam Loewen (Orioles). Their free agents are mostly insignificant, with only two meaningful players (Burnett and Zaun): A.J. Burnett, Kevin Mench (minor league FA), John Parrish, Shannon Stewart, Brad Wilkerson, Gregg Zaun
Most likely to return: John Parrish may get a minor league deal. The other players are as good as gone.
Most likely to leave: Gregg Zaun was on XM yesterday and sounded as if the Blue Jays were part of the distant past. With a number of teams having holes at catcher, Zaun could fit on a lot of teams -- Florida, San Diego, New York Mets or Yankees, Cincinnati, maybe even Boston. A.J. Burnett is likely to find more money in Baltimore or New York in the near future.
Non-tender candidates:Russ Adams has fallen off the radar, though not off the 40-man roster for the Jays.
Prospect on the rise: Travis Snider made the major leagues at age 20 and will likely stick with the Blue Jays in a DH/LF role in 2009. If he and Adam Lind can produce and the Jays can add a starting pitcher, the Jays have an outside shot at competing for a wild card spot.
Needs: Starting pitching and a middle infielder -- Starting pitching is a must because of the injuries to Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan. While McGowan seems likely to return in early 2009, Marcum is likely out for the season. Halladay, McGowan, and Litsch are solid, but there's little besides David Purcey behind them. The middle infield for the Jays was full of former 4A players for the Indians with Joe Inglett and John McDonald getting a combined 560 plate appearances. Scutaro could be a fill-in at shortstop and Aaron Hill should be back in 2009, but it would make more sense to find another productive infielder. Hill has played shortstop in the past, but was moved because of defensive insufficiency, so it's not clear whether he could stick at short.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Dustin McGowan had surgery to repair a torn labrum in 2008 and is uncertain for spring training in 2009. Shaun Marcum is out for at least most of 2009 after Tommy John surgery. Aaron Hill missed most of 2008 with a concussion, a return to his 2007 form (or better) is essential if the Blue Jays are going to score any runs in 2009.
Free agent ceiling: The Blue Jays would have loved if this offseason had occurred a few months ago, when the Canadian dollar was much stronger against the U.S. Dollar. Now, not so much. They're not likely to compete for the real high-ceiling free agents, but might be able to sign a Derek Lowe or a Ben Sheets.
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles had a few impressive performances in 2008 -- solid relief pitching from the likes of Jim Johnson and George Sherrill, decent production from Adam "Not Pacman" Jones, good years from Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis and eventually Melvin Mora, and a solid year from Luke Scott. But they still finished as the only team in the AL East to finish below .500, played to sparse crowds at a lot of their home games, and didn't find any young starter who could lock down a rotation spot, with three of their starters finishing the season with ERAs north of 6.00. They now face a few not-so-difficult decisions: Juan Castro, Alex Cintron, Kevin Millar, and Jay Payton are free agents.
Most likely to return: I can't say I'm certain on any of these players. Dave Trembley loves infield defense, so Juan Castro probably has a shot to stick around, since two of the Orioles' other shortstops are minor league free agents. Kevin Millar still seems to be a fan favorite in Baltimore.
Most likely to leave: Jay Payton wanted out last year. He didn't get the opportunity then. He'll get it now.
Non-tender candidates:There's talk that Daniel Cabrera could be non-tendered, but when your number 3-5 starters had 6.00+ ERAs, it's hard to see why the perpetual frustration with Cabrera's control would warrant his release. Hayden Penn was once a top prospect for the O's rotation, but is coming off his third straight season at AAA and hasn't even gotten a September callup since 2006. Then again, he's a pitcher.
Prospect on the rise: Matt Wieters is widely considered one of the top 10 prospects in baseball at this point and could join the team later in 2009. David Hernandez and Chris Tillman both had effective seasons at AA Bowie, and both could figure in the rotation plans for Baltimore in 2009.
Needs: Starting pitching and Shortstop. The Orioles have one major league starter on their roster, and he (Jeremy Guthrie) was a waiver claim 24 months ago. There are a few other potential starters in the system, but without a real veteran presence to guide them, things are likely to be rough for a while. Few teams had so woeful a cast of characters at a position as the 2008 Orioles did at shortstop. Can you name two of the six players who started games at shortstop for the Orioles (without rechecking their list of free agents)? Juan Castro, Freddie Bynum, Luis Hernandez, Alex Cintron, Brandon Fahey, and Eider Torres. I've attended games started by four of that motley crew and couldn't have done any better than two.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Danys Baez is talking about returning after spending the last two years on the DL. Good news for the O's, he wants to be a starter. Chris Ray may rejoin the bullpen after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August 2007, Troy Patton will be back in 2009 after undergoing right labrum surgery that removed him from the Orioles' rotation options. Matt Albers underwent surgery on his own labrum that will hold him back at the outset of 2009, but he may be ready by spring training.
Free agent ceiling: The Orioles had a lot of lows in 2008, including the least attended game in Oriole Park's history (I was there -- Pat Sajak threw out the first pitch), and a spate of injuries to the pitchers that were supposed to compete for rotation spots. But Peter Angelos has been willing to overpay for free agents in the past. Now freed of most of those Jim Duquette contracts, the Orioles may be able to make a play for two local players in Mark Teixiera and A.J. Burnett. I wouldn't expect either to sign with the O's, but they'll be given something to consider.
AL East
Tampa Bay Rays:
Rocco Baldelli, Cliff Floyd, Eric Hinske and Trever Miller are all free agents. Floyd and Miller both had their options declined, Cliff Floyd will likely end the not-so-illustrious career that peaked when he was on the cover of Beckett Baseball Card Monthly in May 1994. Oh, and he won a World Series, but I'm pretty sure he had little to do with that. Curse you, Craig Counsell/Edgar Renteria/Tony Fernandez/Jose Mesa.
Most Likely to Return: Hinske, I guess, though I'd put those odds considerably longer than the Rays repeating the AL pennant. Hinske played relatively well for half a season but fell off a cliff in the second half and was only on the World Series roster after Floyd was removed for an injury.
Most likely to leave: Trever Miller's option got declined not because it was prohibitively expensive, but because the Rays feel they have a bullpen surplus where J.P. Howell and possibly David Price will provide left-handed arms. He'll find another job.
Non-tender candidates: Jonny Gomes continued his decline in 2008, finishing with an OPS+ of 73 and finishing the year in AAA. Though the Rays will lose Cliff Floyd and possibly Rocco Baldelli, Gomes' defensive deficiencies and offensive ineptitude may lead to him finding a new line of work in the offseason.
Prospect on the rise: Enough has been said about David Price for now. Jeff Niemann has taken longer than expected, but looks to be ready for the major leagues, Wade Davis and James Houser are probably less than a year away as well. Though Reid Brignac didn't hit much at AAA, he may figure on the club as a utility infielder in 2009.
Needs: A right fielder, DH, and a backup catcher. Catcher isn't a pressing position if Dioner Navarro maintains his durability and bat, but both seem unlikely. The Rays could probably live through a season of Gabe Gross, Ben Zobrist, Fernando Perez, and maybe Willy Aybar in right field, but it wouldn't take too much to improve upon it. Similarly, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Rays pick up a few minor league free agents to try and fill the DH spot.
Injuries that could figure in 2009:
Free agent ceiling: The rumors linking the Rays to Pat Burrell seem pretty implausible. Though the team could use a corner outfielder/DH, their budget won't likely expand that much.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have a number of free agents, but none of whom played a pivotal role in the playoff run in 2008. Free agents are: Paul Byrd, Sean Casey, Bartolo Colon, Alex Cora, Mark Kotsay, David Ross, Curt Schilling, Mike Timlin, Jason Varitek.
Most likely to return: Alex Cora is the only player on this list who I could envision the Red Sox making a serious effort to re-sign aside from the woeful Varitek, who was one of the worst players in Major League Baseball last year. Cora would help as a defensive replacement and could play behind Jed Lowrie and Dustin Pedroia if the Red Sox can trade Julio Lugo's ugly contract in the offseason.
Most likely to leave: Mark Kotsay played pretty poorly for the Red Sox after being brought in to fill an outfield role and eventually being trainsitioned to first base. He had played adequately for the Braves, but his injury-prone nature and limited power and speed have drastically reduced his value on the market.
Non-tender candidates: The Red Sox are unlikely to non-tender anyone, since their roster is likely to thin out after the free agent signing period begins.
Prospect on the rise: Lars Anderson may resolve the need for a first baseman if Youkilis should move to third to replace Lowell.
Needs: The Red Sox need little help anywhere, but could use another arm in the bullpen to put with Papelbon, Okajima, Justin Masterson, Manny Delcarmen, and Javier Lopez. They could also use another option at either first base or third base to cover for Mike Lowell's injury.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Mike Lowell's hip may limit his production in 2009, if he bounces back to play at all. Josh Beckett's health will be a topic of perpetual discussion between now and spring training. Julio Lugo's torn quadricep will limit his already minimal trade value and J.D. Drew is rarely healthy for an entire season.
Free agent ceiling: The Red Sox are unlikely to make any major signings since Sabathia doesn't fill a need, Manny Ramirez is unwelcome, and Mark Teixeira is expensive. Brian Fuentes may interest the Red Sox as a setup man, but the cost may exceed his value to the Red Sox.
New York Yankees
The Yankees are an old team with no pitching and they're on the verge of losing some of the most talented pieces they have. The Yankees' free agents are a tale of misguided acquisitions or players who could no longer deliver -- Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, Damaso Marte, Chad Moeller, Mike Mussina, Carl Pavano, Andy Pettitte, Sidney Ponson, Ivan Rodriguez, Richie Sexson
Most likely to return: Mike Mussina will decide whether he will retire or pitch for the Yankees in 2009, but I think the opportunity to start opening day to open a new Yankee Stadium will persuade him to stick around for one more year. I think Giambi and Abreu may also return, since the market for both players will be tepid and the Yankees don't have ready-made players at 1B or RF, but much depends on whether Teixeira signs with the Yankees.
Most likely to leave: Carl Pavano is a reminder of Cashman's failed efforts over the last decade as a GM, and I don't think there's any way the Yankees' fans would permit his return.
Non-tender candidates: The Yankees will want to move some of their current roster, but are unlikely to non-tender anyone like Melky Cabrera, who they continue to pitch in trades.
Prospect on the rise: Austin Jackson could take the CF job from the mishmash of Brett Gardner and Melky Cabrera at some point in 2009. He didn't do anything remarkable at Trenton (OPS of .773), but his primary competitor (Gardner) has less power and didn't show a propensity to reach base in the majors.
Needs: Pitching, first base, and center field. For a team with a mammoth payroll, so much is tied up in the left side of the infield that it masks the woeful production the Yankees can expect from their current projected outfield of Johnny Damon/Brett Gardner/Melky Cabrera and Xavier Nady. Signing Manny Ramirez would give them a productive left fielder, but would also force Damon/Gardner/Cabrera to play center field. First base is a hole with Giambi gone, unless the Yankees can convince Jorge Posada to remain healthy and move from behind the plate (in which case the Yankees have a hole at catcher). Most of all, though, the Yankees lack any pitching. If the season began today, the Yankees' starting rotation would have fewer than 23 career wins after their ace-- with Chien-Ming Wang followed by Joba Chamberlain, Phillip Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Darrell Rasner (or 15 career wins with Alfredo Aceves). While it's quite possible that Wang and Chamberlain would be a dominant 1-2 combination sufficient to win another division, it doesn't compare to the Rays, Sox, or Jays. They need to add at least two starters, and probably three. If the Yankees don't re-sign Marte, they have no left-handers in the bullpen, so a move would be necessary there as well.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Chien-Ming Wang will be back in 2009, but it's unclear whether he'll have any lingering effects from his lis franc injury. Jorge Posada is coming back from a partially torn labrum that should heal by 2009, but his age has to give the Yankees concern about depending on him for more than about 80 games. Joba Chamberlain's rotator cuff tendinitis ended his season prematurely, which means he may still not be ready to spend a full season in the rotation.
Free agent ceiling: Are you kidding? This is the Yankees. They're not going to sign Mark Teixeira, Manny Ramirez, and C.C. Sabathia, but two out of three isn't even unlikely, let alone implausible.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays have already had a busy offseason, raiding other teams 40-man castaways -- including Les Walron (Phillies), Bryan Bullington (Indians), Angel Sanchez (Royals), Kelvin Jimenez (Cardinals), and Adam Loewen (Orioles). Their free agents are mostly insignificant, with only two meaningful players (Burnett and Zaun): A.J. Burnett, Kevin Mench (minor league FA), John Parrish, Shannon Stewart, Brad Wilkerson, Gregg Zaun
Most likely to return: John Parrish may get a minor league deal. The other players are as good as gone.
Most likely to leave: Gregg Zaun was on XM yesterday and sounded as if the Blue Jays were part of the distant past. With a number of teams having holes at catcher, Zaun could fit on a lot of teams -- Florida, San Diego, New York Mets or Yankees, Cincinnati, maybe even Boston. A.J. Burnett is likely to find more money in Baltimore or New York in the near future.
Non-tender candidates:Russ Adams has fallen off the radar, though not off the 40-man roster for the Jays.
Prospect on the rise: Travis Snider made the major leagues at age 20 and will likely stick with the Blue Jays in a DH/LF role in 2009. If he and Adam Lind can produce and the Jays can add a starting pitcher, the Jays have an outside shot at competing for a wild card spot.
Needs: Starting pitching and a middle infielder -- Starting pitching is a must because of the injuries to Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan. While McGowan seems likely to return in early 2009, Marcum is likely out for the season. Halladay, McGowan, and Litsch are solid, but there's little besides David Purcey behind them. The middle infield for the Jays was full of former 4A players for the Indians with Joe Inglett and John McDonald getting a combined 560 plate appearances. Scutaro could be a fill-in at shortstop and Aaron Hill should be back in 2009, but it would make more sense to find another productive infielder. Hill has played shortstop in the past, but was moved because of defensive insufficiency, so it's not clear whether he could stick at short.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Dustin McGowan had surgery to repair a torn labrum in 2008 and is uncertain for spring training in 2009. Shaun Marcum is out for at least most of 2009 after Tommy John surgery. Aaron Hill missed most of 2008 with a concussion, a return to his 2007 form (or better) is essential if the Blue Jays are going to score any runs in 2009.
Free agent ceiling: The Blue Jays would have loved if this offseason had occurred a few months ago, when the Canadian dollar was much stronger against the U.S. Dollar. Now, not so much. They're not likely to compete for the real high-ceiling free agents, but might be able to sign a Derek Lowe or a Ben Sheets.
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles had a few impressive performances in 2008 -- solid relief pitching from the likes of Jim Johnson and George Sherrill, decent production from Adam "Not Pacman" Jones, good years from Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis and eventually Melvin Mora, and a solid year from Luke Scott. But they still finished as the only team in the AL East to finish below .500, played to sparse crowds at a lot of their home games, and didn't find any young starter who could lock down a rotation spot, with three of their starters finishing the season with ERAs north of 6.00. They now face a few not-so-difficult decisions: Juan Castro, Alex Cintron, Kevin Millar, and Jay Payton are free agents.
Most likely to return: I can't say I'm certain on any of these players. Dave Trembley loves infield defense, so Juan Castro probably has a shot to stick around, since two of the Orioles' other shortstops are minor league free agents. Kevin Millar still seems to be a fan favorite in Baltimore.
Most likely to leave: Jay Payton wanted out last year. He didn't get the opportunity then. He'll get it now.
Non-tender candidates:There's talk that Daniel Cabrera could be non-tendered, but when your number 3-5 starters had 6.00+ ERAs, it's hard to see why the perpetual frustration with Cabrera's control would warrant his release. Hayden Penn was once a top prospect for the O's rotation, but is coming off his third straight season at AAA and hasn't even gotten a September callup since 2006. Then again, he's a pitcher.
Prospect on the rise: Matt Wieters is widely considered one of the top 10 prospects in baseball at this point and could join the team later in 2009. David Hernandez and Chris Tillman both had effective seasons at AA Bowie, and both could figure in the rotation plans for Baltimore in 2009.
Needs: Starting pitching and Shortstop. The Orioles have one major league starter on their roster, and he (Jeremy Guthrie) was a waiver claim 24 months ago. There are a few other potential starters in the system, but without a real veteran presence to guide them, things are likely to be rough for a while. Few teams had so woeful a cast of characters at a position as the 2008 Orioles did at shortstop. Can you name two of the six players who started games at shortstop for the Orioles (without rechecking their list of free agents)? Juan Castro, Freddie Bynum, Luis Hernandez, Alex Cintron, Brandon Fahey, and Eider Torres. I've attended games started by four of that motley crew and couldn't have done any better than two.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Danys Baez is talking about returning after spending the last two years on the DL. Good news for the O's, he wants to be a starter. Chris Ray may rejoin the bullpen after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August 2007, Troy Patton will be back in 2009 after undergoing right labrum surgery that removed him from the Orioles' rotation options. Matt Albers underwent surgery on his own labrum that will hold him back at the outset of 2009, but he may be ready by spring training.
Free agent ceiling: The Orioles had a lot of lows in 2008, including the least attended game in Oriole Park's history (I was there -- Pat Sajak threw out the first pitch), and a spate of injuries to the pitchers that were supposed to compete for rotation spots. But Peter Angelos has been willing to overpay for free agents in the past. Now freed of most of those Jim Duquette contracts, the Orioles may be able to make a play for two local players in Mark Teixiera and A.J. Burnett. I wouldn't expect either to sign with the O's, but they'll be given something to consider.
Monday, November 10, 2008
Scott Eyre re-signs with the Phillies
Eyre lands $2 million for one year.
Eyre had been a solid left-handed reliever in the past, but fell apart with the Cubs in the early part of 2008, despite keeping walks in check more than he had in the past. He seemed to work well with Rich Dubee and fared well, becoming a reliable part of the Phillies' pen in the latter half of the season and the playoffs. With the Eyre signing, the Phillies' bullpen is pretty well complete -- Lidge, Madson, Durbin, Condrey, Eyre, and Romero are all near certainties in the 'pen, with one spot open for a cast off from the rotation like Adam Eaton/J.A. Happ/Kyle Kendrick or a reclamation prospect like Scott Mathieson or Mike Zagurski (unlikely, since it'd give them three lefties).
Eyre had been a solid left-handed reliever in the past, but fell apart with the Cubs in the early part of 2008, despite keeping walks in check more than he had in the past. He seemed to work well with Rich Dubee and fared well, becoming a reliable part of the Phillies' pen in the latter half of the season and the playoffs. With the Eyre signing, the Phillies' bullpen is pretty well complete -- Lidge, Madson, Durbin, Condrey, Eyre, and Romero are all near certainties in the 'pen, with one spot open for a cast off from the rotation like Adam Eaton/J.A. Happ/Kyle Kendrick or a reclamation prospect like Scott Mathieson or Mike Zagurski (unlikely, since it'd give them three lefties).
Monday Trade Blitz -- Matt Holliday, Huston Street, Scott Olsen, Josh Willingham
Two deals have purportedly gone down, neither of which makes a whole heck of a lot of sense.
Reported Deal #1
Matt Holliday is traded from the Rockies to the A's for a group of players reportedly including Greg Smith, Carlos Gonzalez, and Huston Street.
Billy Beane does it again, swindling...oh wait. He traded a quality starting pitcher, an average closer, and one of last year's top prospects for a bat that's had one great season away from Coors Field.
Greg Smith was not a great pitcher and unlikely to become one with a marginal K rate. But he was the best starter the A's had in 2008 aside from Duchscherer, whose frequent injuries make him unreliable at best. Carlos Gonzalez had a disappointing 2008, showing little power in Oakland, and Huston Street lost his job as a closer to the astounding debut season of Brad Ziegler. Street's definitely the best player in the deal, considering Gonzalez's woeful OBP and lack of power and Smith's uncertainty, but the package isn't insignificant.
Matt Holliday is a player who's hard to read. His career numbers away from Coors Field are barely better than adequate, although he put up a good OPS last year. But he's a player who has benefited a lot from Coors Field and is now plopped into a potent pitcher's park. Holliday only mustered 25 home runs last year, but he did show a surge of speed (swiping 28 bases in 30 attempts).
Analysis:
The Rockies get the better end of this deal. The Cardinals' deal fell apart, the Phillies seemed an unlikely contender for the deal, and the Rockies get a pitcher who will fill out their rotation, a would-be closer to replace Brian Fuentes (or, more likely, trade bait of their own that could land another major league ready player), and an outfielder who is only a year removed from being one of the Top 25 prospects in major league baseball. The A's get a player who is a good hitter, but may not be much more than good removed from Coors Field, but is guaranteed to be beyond the A's current price range at the end of this season. And with the lineup they have around Holliday and the prospect-dependent pitching staff, the A's seem extraordinarily unlikely to contend for anything this season. Billy Beane is apparently counting on a mighty fine draft pick to come of Matt Holliday when he signs elsewhere.
Reported Deal # 2:
Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham are traded from the Marlins to the Nationals for Emilio Bonifacio, P.J. Dean and possibly infielder Jake Smolinski.
Olsen is probably around a major league average starter, one who represents a relatively substantial upgrade from anyone the Nationals have slotted in their current rotation. His 2007 was a bad season, but 2006 and 2008 were both respectable. He's been a durable starter. Willingham, on the other hand, is a good hitter, but has serious durability issues.
Bonifacio is a light-hitting second baseman who had shown some stolen base prowess in the minors, but didn't flash that kind of ability in his run with the Nationals. He will be little more than a utility man for the Marlins unless they should make a surprising trade of Dan Uggla in the near future. The other players are still unproven, with Baseball America projecting Smolinski as the #11 prospect in the relatively barren Nationals organization (as an outfielder) and Dean as the #30 prospect last season.
Analysis:
I would have thought the Marlins certainly could have gotten more for Olsen -- I had concocted a deal with the Indians to send Kevin Gregg and Scott Olsen to the Tribe for Kelly Shoppach and an outfielder like Franklin Gutierrez, Nick Weglarz, or John Drennen. Instead, they get no one who can play a meaningful role on their team in the next two or three years. Bonifacio may be a useful piece, but he's little more than that.
As improbable as it is that Jim Bowden came out ahead on a deal with Beinfest, the Nationals seem to have fared well here. Olsen is a stabilizing force that gives the Nationals a second solid left-handed starter in their rotation. Willingham is an offensive upgrade from Austin Kearns last year, but a huge defensive regression and his career numbers are roughly equivalent to Kearns' career totals. With Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena under contract in the outfield, a move seems to be imminent, although it's possible that Willingham could move to 1B and fill a substantial hole for the Nationals, who were also rumored to be interested in Adam Dunn (who has expressed his discontent with playing 1B in the past and would almost certainly frown on a deal involving his friend Kearns -- whose contract and injury prone 2008 makes him hard to move anyway). If Willingham can play first, freeing up Ronnie Belliard to play second, the Nationals have a shockingly serviceable lineup until the plague of injuries begins to beset them.
Reported Deal #1
Matt Holliday is traded from the Rockies to the A's for a group of players reportedly including Greg Smith, Carlos Gonzalez, and Huston Street.
Billy Beane does it again, swindling...oh wait. He traded a quality starting pitcher, an average closer, and one of last year's top prospects for a bat that's had one great season away from Coors Field.
Greg Smith was not a great pitcher and unlikely to become one with a marginal K rate. But he was the best starter the A's had in 2008 aside from Duchscherer, whose frequent injuries make him unreliable at best. Carlos Gonzalez had a disappointing 2008, showing little power in Oakland, and Huston Street lost his job as a closer to the astounding debut season of Brad Ziegler. Street's definitely the best player in the deal, considering Gonzalez's woeful OBP and lack of power and Smith's uncertainty, but the package isn't insignificant.
Matt Holliday is a player who's hard to read. His career numbers away from Coors Field are barely better than adequate, although he put up a good OPS last year. But he's a player who has benefited a lot from Coors Field and is now plopped into a potent pitcher's park. Holliday only mustered 25 home runs last year, but he did show a surge of speed (swiping 28 bases in 30 attempts).
Analysis:
The Rockies get the better end of this deal. The Cardinals' deal fell apart, the Phillies seemed an unlikely contender for the deal, and the Rockies get a pitcher who will fill out their rotation, a would-be closer to replace Brian Fuentes (or, more likely, trade bait of their own that could land another major league ready player), and an outfielder who is only a year removed from being one of the Top 25 prospects in major league baseball. The A's get a player who is a good hitter, but may not be much more than good removed from Coors Field, but is guaranteed to be beyond the A's current price range at the end of this season. And with the lineup they have around Holliday and the prospect-dependent pitching staff, the A's seem extraordinarily unlikely to contend for anything this season. Billy Beane is apparently counting on a mighty fine draft pick to come of Matt Holliday when he signs elsewhere.
Reported Deal # 2:
Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham are traded from the Marlins to the Nationals for Emilio Bonifacio, P.J. Dean and possibly infielder Jake Smolinski.
Olsen is probably around a major league average starter, one who represents a relatively substantial upgrade from anyone the Nationals have slotted in their current rotation. His 2007 was a bad season, but 2006 and 2008 were both respectable. He's been a durable starter. Willingham, on the other hand, is a good hitter, but has serious durability issues.
Bonifacio is a light-hitting second baseman who had shown some stolen base prowess in the minors, but didn't flash that kind of ability in his run with the Nationals. He will be little more than a utility man for the Marlins unless they should make a surprising trade of Dan Uggla in the near future. The other players are still unproven, with Baseball America projecting Smolinski as the #11 prospect in the relatively barren Nationals organization (as an outfielder) and Dean as the #30 prospect last season.
Analysis:
I would have thought the Marlins certainly could have gotten more for Olsen -- I had concocted a deal with the Indians to send Kevin Gregg and Scott Olsen to the Tribe for Kelly Shoppach and an outfielder like Franklin Gutierrez, Nick Weglarz, or John Drennen. Instead, they get no one who can play a meaningful role on their team in the next two or three years. Bonifacio may be a useful piece, but he's little more than that.
As improbable as it is that Jim Bowden came out ahead on a deal with Beinfest, the Nationals seem to have fared well here. Olsen is a stabilizing force that gives the Nationals a second solid left-handed starter in their rotation. Willingham is an offensive upgrade from Austin Kearns last year, but a huge defensive regression and his career numbers are roughly equivalent to Kearns' career totals. With Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena under contract in the outfield, a move seems to be imminent, although it's possible that Willingham could move to 1B and fill a substantial hole for the Nationals, who were also rumored to be interested in Adam Dunn (who has expressed his discontent with playing 1B in the past and would almost certainly frown on a deal involving his friend Kearns -- whose contract and injury prone 2008 makes him hard to move anyway). If Willingham can play first, freeing up Ronnie Belliard to play second, the Nationals have a shockingly serviceable lineup until the plague of injuries begins to beset them.
AL Central: Offseason Outlook
Offseason outlook:
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox were one of the oldest teams in baseball in 2008, and that's not going to change too much in 2009. They're cutting loose a number of injury-prone players and will have an almost entirely new infield from the 2008 opening day lineup. Free agents are Orlando Cabrera, Joe Crede, Ken Griffey Jr., Toby Hall, Horacio Ramirez, and Juan Uribe.
Most Likely To Return: Toby Hall is likely to be re-signed, but couldn't justify the price tag on his option.
Most Likely to Leave: Griffey seems certain to be gone and may have had his career finished because of his prohibitive contract. Joe Crede is almost certainly on his way out, even though Josh Fields didn't show anything in 2008 to warrant a third base job. His promise in 2007 will guarantee that Crede and his bad back will clutter another roster in need of a David Bell clone with more power.
Non-tender candidates: If this were any other team, I'd be surprised to see Dewayne Wise offered a major league contract, though most of Ken Williams' moves over the last few years have been pretty astonishing. Jerry Owens and Brian Anderson seem to duplicate each others' limited skill set and one of them may have worn out his welcome.
Prospect on the rise: Clayton Richard is a near-lock for the rotation, especially while the White Sox are looking to trade Javier Vazquez. Chris Getz may seize the 2B job if the Sox don't resign Orlando Cabrera or Juan Uribe, forcing Alexei Ramirez to SS in 2009. Does Josh Fields still count? He's likely to swat 25 home runs for the White Sox in 2009, play weak defense at third base, and have trouble getting on base, but he's going to play every day.
Needs: Youth. The White Sox will have holes opening at 2B, SS, 3B, had a disaster at 1B with Konerko last year, have the worst defensive RF in the game (and no other place to put him), and an old pitching staff. They need to acquire a versatile infielder to help ensure the infield is in decent shape, since the only guarantee is Alexei Ramirez. Jerry Hairston Jr. would make sense for a team that needs help at all the positions he's played in recent years, though his 2008 is too aberrant for words.
Injuries that figure in 2009: Andrew Sisco will miss much of the year after Tommy John surgery. This is straining the definition of this category.
Free agent ceiling: They may re-sign one of their own, but I don't see the White Sox as major players in the free agent market. Keith Foulke or a Doug Brocail type might make sense.
Minnesota Twins
The Twins smoke and mirrored their way into the playoffs again, only to blow their lead and lose a one-game playoff to the White Haired Sox. The core of the team is unlikely to change much, the only free agents are Eddie Guardado, Nick Punto, Dennys Reyes, Adam Everett.
Most Likely to Return: I feel like Nick Punto is likely to return. I have no basis to conclude this except that he's a Twins kind of player -- not particularly good, but he is white, lacks meaningful tools, and he hustles (Hell, check out his player card on MLB.com -- that looks like the exact reason that idiots like Tim McCarver think the Twins win games). He can't really fill holes at shortstop or third base, but he's an adequate stopgap. I wouldn't be surprised to see any of these guys come back to the Twins.
Most Likely to Leave: Dennys Reyes may have priced himself out of the Twins' plans by being relatively effective and putting up an ERA that looks useful. Eddie Guardado may want to try the weak closer market and see if he can get a contract from a team in need of a closer.
Non-tender candidates: I don't see any.
Prospect on the rise: Again, I'm not seeing much -- the closest thing they have to a player who didn't already make his mark on the majors in 2008 is probably Kevin Mulvey, who pitched relatively well in AAA. Then again, with a rotation that's already full of young arms (Baker, Liriano, Blackburn, Slowey and Perkins all earned their down spots with good seasons in 2008) that's relegated Boof Bonser to long relief, it's hard to see Mulvey serving as much more than middling trade bait to get a bat. Ditto for Phillip Humber, who proved that the Twins got a raw deal in missing out on Mike Pelfrey.
Needs: SS/3B, relief pitching -- The Twins have accepted less offensive production on the left side of their infield for years, it's not likely to change. If the Twins decided they were comfortable with Michael Cuddyer at 3B, they'd be set, but I'd be surprised if they were willing to settle on his defensive weakness paired with Brendan Harris at SS. If Reyes leaves, the Twins need a lefty to pair with Craig Breslow, who almost certainly overachieved last year, and need a bounceback year from Matt Guerrier.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Pat Neshek's torn ulnar collateral ligament put the Twins bullpen in a tough spot, with Neshek's role falling on Matt Guerrier. He's expected to return for spring training and should be ready to go by opening day. Michael Cuddyer had an injury-plagued 2008 and that may have contributed to his ineffectiveness. If he's healthy, it could be a big turnaround for the club.
Free agent ceiling: Because the Twins aren't really overrun with needs, their ceiling is likely very low. A middle reliever -- be it Reyes, Doug Brocail (who the Twins will almost certainly not sign because of his type A status), or some equivalent -- is probably their biggest investment.
Cleveland Indians
The Indians dealt their two most meaningful free agents and got an embarrassment of not-immediately-helpful riches in return. Though it's not likely the team is building around Matt LaPorta and Carlos Santana just yet, those players are likely to influence the Tribe's strategy in 2009, while the club is waiting out Dellucci's contract and making a final decision on Andy Marte. The free agents for the club are Juan Rincon, Brendan Donnelly, Scott Elarton, Sal Fasano.
Most Likely to Return: None of these guys is likely to surface again, although it wouldn't be astonishing for Elarton to return after missing much of the season with a non-baseball injury or medical condition that the Indians didn't disclose. Most likely to leave: Juan Rincon is as good as gone after showing no real ability to come through in the bullpen last year. Fasano doesn't fit the roster with a surplus of catching, but may get a minor league deal to work out with the club in hopes of catching on elsewhere.Non-tender candidates: Josh Barfield may have run out his opportunities with the Tribe, having accomplished nothing in his two year tenure. While he may have some residual trade value, the Indians might elect to watch him leave rather than risk losing a Jordan Brown or Chuck Lofgren to the Rule 5 draft. Zach Jackson seemed a lock to be non-tendered when he was acquired, but a couple decent starts at the end of September mean he's likely to compete for a starting spot with Jeremy Sowers and Aaron Laffey.
Prospect on the rise: Adam Miller has been on the radar for what seems like a decade for the Indians, but has been beset by injuries. Next year, he's going to have to make the major league roster and hang on as a 12th man in the bullpen, because his options are gone. Or, more likely, he'll find his way onto the 60-day DL. John Meloan may play a meaningful role in the bullpen for the Tribe, though Eric Wedge didn't show him many opportunities in September. Carlos Santana will likely play a few games in September after scoring a .999 OPS as a catcher in high A ball last season.
Needs: Relief pitching, third base, a seasoned starter, and production from corner outfield spots and DH. The Tribe's bullpen regressed way past the mean last year as Borowski imploded, Betancourt went from elite to little more than a 4A pitcher -- due in no small part to a career high in walks, and Kobayashi folded in high pressure situations. By June, the bullpen, Sabathia's April struggles, and injuries to Carmona and Westbrook had already sunk a team that many expected to go to the World Series. Although Miller and Meloan may fill out the right-handed side of the bullpen, the Indians need a left-hander to pair with Rafael Perez who may see closing opportunities. Jeremy Affeldt would make a lot of sense. Third base has been a stopgap position since Travis Fryman, that's unlikely to change in the offseason, though the Indians may overpay to get Casey Blake back. The Indians aren't likely to invest in corner outfielders or DH competitors, so the improvement will have to come in. You can rest assured that Milton Bradley won't be joining the Tribe, even though his skill set seems ideal for a team lacking in meaningful pop against left-handed pitching.
Injuries that figure in 2009: Carmona struggled through injuries to his hip in 2008, but should be ready to go in 2009. Jake Westbrook may miss the entire 2009 season, but should be available at mid-season after Tommy John surgery that ruined a season that looked extremely optimistic.Free agent ceiling: Orlando Hudson is probably a high-end projection for the Indians, who have shown reluctance to spend money on free agents in the past. Mark Shapiro has already mentioned Casey Blake and has chased Trevor Hoffman in the past. It's possible that the Indians could get involved in the bidding for Brian Fuentes or Francisco Rodriguez if the market response is considerably more tepid than the current forecast. Chad Cordero would be a good match, but is likely Anaheim-bound.
Kansas City Royals
The Royals are going in the wrong direction, and Dayton Moore may yet make Allard Baird look like a wizard. The free agent blows will be minimal, since only Mark Grudzielanek is a free agent.
Most likely to return: None. (This neglects the obvious fact that Grudzielanek, as a member of a class of one is in fact most likely to return. I just don't think they're re-signing him.)
Most likely to leave: Mark Grudzielanek -- he's the very definition of serviceable -- as I'd suspected, his OPS+ was a flawless 100. He's probably done in Kansas City to make room for Esteban German, Alberto Callaspo, Tony Pena, and the impressive Mike Aviles to fill two jobs.
Non-tender candidates: It's hard to envision who the Royals would non-tender, since there's so many players who seem plausible. So...let's start. Shane Costa, Joey Gathright, Tony Pena, Ross Gload, Jason Smith, Luke Hudson, Brandon Duckworth, and Ryan Braun.
Prospect on the rise: Kila Ka'ahuie has had a pretty significant rise in the Royals' plans, but the Jacobs acquisition means he's likely to be a part-time player at best and is ticketed for lovely Omaha. Let me once again say it. Dayton Moore is an idiot. Idiot idiot idiot. Mitch Maier seems to be a perennial prospect and is on the Justin Huber track to have the Royals' organization kill his career in favor of middling players like Joey Gathright and the $10 million Jose Guillen, but he may get a shot.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: None that I can see. Carlos Rosa's elbow soreness gives you some cause for alarm, but he's not likely a 2009 rotation candidate anyway.
Needs: Hey, how about a competent first baseman? Too late. Pitching (especially relief pitching) and catcher are needs, though the Royals are apparently content with the dreadful Miguel Olivo as a starting catcher. The starting pitching available on the free agent market isn't likely to upgrade from the Royals' available options, so they're likely to stand pat or add a few minor pieces to the bullpen, which is still a complete mess before Soria.
Free agent ceiling: A low-ceiling starter lost in the mix -- like Randy Wolf -- might be lured to pitch in Kansas City, but the Royals will have to substantially overpay to make it happen. Guillermo Mota, Dennys Reyes, Doug Brocail, maybe even Brandon Lyon could figure in the Royals' bullpen. I wouldn't hold my breath, Royals fan(s).
Detroit Tigers
It takes chutzpah to make the deal of a lifetime to acquire a huge bat like Miguel Cabrera and get Dontrelle Willis thrown in as a throw away and then find a way to lose to the Kansas City Royals. Having absolutely no pitching was the key, and the Tigers should be on pace for more of the same in 2009. Kyle Farnsworth, Casey Fossum, Freddy Garcia, Todd Jones, Edgar Renteria, and Vance Wilson are all free agents.
Most likely to return: Freddy Garcia chose to sign with the Tigers in the hopes of restarting his major league career. He wasn't awful, so it'd be surprising to see the pitching-starved Tigers wave goodbye. He wasn't that good either, so it's unlikely he's going to see 7 figure deals heading his way from anyone else.
Most likely to leave: The ink on Edgar Renteria's ticket out of Detroit is pretty well dry. He isn't a great candidate for any team, his impatience has finally caught up to him, and his inability to steal bases has stripped him of much of his perceived residual value. Todd Jones is retiring, but that doesn't really count as "leaving," per se. Most of the Tigers' pitchers didn't do anything last year and they are still Tigers pitchers.
Non-tender candidates: Nate Robertson may be a candidate to be set loose, but the Tigers are so pitching-starved that they're unlikely to kick him to the curb just yet.
Prospect on the rise: Jeff Larish is likely to get major league playing time at first base, third base, and DH. He's not going to produce much more than a Ryan Garko type, but that would be enough to justify including him in the Tigers' lineup. Rick Porcello is on the radar, but with the Tigers looking unlikely to contend, there's no need to rush him.
Needs: starting pitching, relief pitching, catching, shortstop. Bonderman and Verlander will be okay again at some point and Armando Galarraga was quite good in 2008. That still leaves the tigers at least one starter short, even if Zach Miner pays off. The Tigers have no one to fill the catching spot and their only experienced catcher is a free agent. The bullpen is dependent on injury-plagued vets like Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney and has no depth whatsoever. Catching is a void, shortstop is likely to be Brandon Inge unless the Tigers make some sort of move to fill the position.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Macay McBride is coming off Tommy John surgery and will miss part of 2009, Joel Zumaya continues to struggle with a litany of injuries, and Jeremy Bonderman needs to show he's recovered from arm surgery. Gary Sheffield's shoulder may also be a factor, since his contract is simply too large to move to anyone.
Free agent ceiling: I don't think the Tigers are signing any major league free agents bigger than maybe a Gregg Zaun.
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