NL East: Offseason Outlook

Offseason outlook:
Philadelphia Phillies
I'll start with the 2008 World Champions, since I still can't believe that's a description of the Phillies, and because it's the team I'm the major league club I'm most familiar with (through little more than proximity). The Phillies have a few free agents on their roster. Jamie Moyer, Pat Burrell, Scott Eyre, So Taguchi, Tom Gordon, Rudy Seanez, and Taduhito Iguchi are all in a position to leave the club.


Most likely to return: Moyer is a near lock, given that his other real hope would be to return to the Mariners, who really need to get younger and turn their team around. Burrell was given a blow-off with the 2 year, $22 million offer, so although I was confident he'd be back, I no longer feel that the Phillies have a genuine interest in keeping him.


Most likely to leave: Taguchi can't offer the Phillies anything, having failed as a defensive replacement and been replaced by Eric Bruntlett in the regular season and the playoffs. He's probably done as a major leaguer and rumors have already begun that he'll be in Japan next year.


Prospect on the rise: Maybe it's just me, but I would be extremely surprised to see Lou Marson open the season in the minor leagues. He showed a solid bat at Reading (.849 OPS) and it makes sense to get him major league experience while the team still has its core intact, lest you need him to contribute from day one. It's certainly possible that the Phillies put him in AAA in the '09 season and keep Coste at the # 2 spot, and even possible that the Phillies simply carry Coste as a super sub who can fill in at catcher, first base, third base, or the corner outfield spots, but Manuel's not shown a willingness to carry three catchers. The only other prospects I envision seeing in Philadelphia are Jason Donald (Sept. '09 -- earlier if a middle infielder gets injured), Carrasco


Non-tender candidates: Chris Coste. I hope it's not going to happen, but Charlie Manuel made it abundantly clear he favored Ruiz, starting him in every playoff game. With Marson in the wings, a 35-year-old backup catcher is relatively expendable, even if he's a better hitter than most. There may be a trade market for Coste, who would seemingly fit in well with a number of clubs, particularly the Reds, but I feel that if a trade doesn't get done, Coste will probably be non-tendered.



Needs: Pat Burrell? The team needs a right-handed hitting outfielder, though they're unlikely to shell out much for one since they're locked in to a big contract with Geoff Jenkins and still have Matt Stairs under contract for next year. Best case for the Phillies is that Stairs elects to retire, but if he's thinking about it, he's not saying so. That'd free up a roster spot that could be used for a right-handed platoon option to pair with Jenkins, if the Phillies do let Burrell walk. If they fill it from within, they're counting on Greg Golson to develop as a hitter in a hurry.

The Phillies could use a dependable starting pitcher, but have a lot of # 6 starter types and there's always the lingering possibility that Madson gets moved into the rotation. Short of Derek Lowe falling through every crack or some way-below-market deal for an injury prone pitcher like Ben Sheets, it's unlikely the Phillies land another starter to join Kendrick/Happ/Eaton in the mix. Carlos Carrasco is on the horizon, so it probably makes sense to let Happ/Kendrick try to show what they can and give Carrasco a shot at mid-season if the available options aren't there.


Injuries that figure in 2009: The Phillies' bullpen has a lot more options returning because Scott Mathieson and Mike Zagurski both missed the entire 2008 season with injuries. Zagurski gives them the winner of the Scott Eyre-lookalike contest, Mathieson has long been a prospect in the organization, but has been beset by injuries. Pedro Feliz missed time with a balky back in the late season, and that isn't likely an injury we've heard the last from.


Free agent ceiling: The Phillies have made loads of extra money from the playoff run, but aren't likely to be a big player on the free agent market given the arbitration raises that will go to Ryan Howard and others. Their top free agent target would likely be a Pat Burrell/Adam Dunn type in the range of $13-14 million a season, and the Phillies have already shown a reluctance to pay that much. There are rumors that the Phillies are interested in Manny Ramirez, but I really have a hard time giving them any credence, and I don't think Manny Ramirez would be content to play in Philadelphia in any event.


New York Mets
The Mets fell short again in 2007, despite bringing in the second-best pitcher in baseball, only to get eclipsed by the team that acquired the best pitcher in baseball (I'm passing the torch). The Mets are an old team, but they face a lot of potential changes in 2009, with a large number of free agents: Oliver Perez, Moises Alou, Luis Ayala, Damion Easley, Tony Armas, Orlando Hernandez, Pedro Martinez, Ramon Martinez, Ricardo Rincon, Al Reyes, Trot Nixon, Brady Clark and Matt Wise.

Most likely to return: Oliver Perez was relatively reliable for the Mets, is going to be pretty pricey on the open market and has a questionable Type A status that would cause 15 teams to lose a first round pick to sign an erratic starter. I'd guess that Easley is probable to return as well.

Most likely to leave: Everybody else. The Mets may hold on to Luis Ayala, who they trusted for about a week after acquiring him, but most of the free agents are guys who missed much (or all) of last season or didn't play a meaningful role in 2008.

Prospect on the rise: Daniel Murphy made a significant splash in 2008 as the Mets tried to push their way to the playoffs with a makeshift outfield. He's likely to start in 2009 at either left field or second base. Jon Niese is likely to crash the Mets' rotation, but didn't fare well in his cameo. Fernando Martinez is still on the horizon, but doesn't seem like a major factor in the Mets' hopes for 2009.

Non-tender candidates: For legal reasons, Ambiorix Burgos may get non-tendered, but I'd doubt it, considering what the Mets gave up for him. Not a non-tender, but a release, might be the situation facing Luis Castillo, but, again, considering the Mets' financial commitment, they should probably keep Castillo around in case Murphy doesn't transition to second successfully.

Needs: Corner outfielders, second base, starting pitching and relief pitching. The Mets need everything that's not Johan Santana, Carlos Beltran, David Wright, Jose Reyes, and possibly Carlos Delgado (who sure looked finished until late May) and Ryan Church (who looked solid in RF when he played, which wasn't all that often). They could use a better catching tandem as well, but aren't likely to move there with the glut of needs they already have.

Injuries that figure in 2009: John Maine's shoulder may determine whether the Mets have a solid rotation in 2009. Santana is still dominating, Mike Pelfrey put together a strong season, and Oliver Perez could return as a free agent, giving the Mets a decent trio of starters, but if John Maine can get healthy and stay healthy, the Mets are infinitely more likely to contend for a playoff berth in 2006. Billy Wagner is out for '09 and has likely finished his Mets career.

Free agent ceiling: Simply put, there isn't one. While there are organizational reasons that the Mets would likely not chase C.C. Sabathia and pursue Manny Ramirez or Francisco Rodriguez (read either: the Mets are a poorly run organization or Minaya's renowned bias for Latin players), the Mets have money to spend and will clear $26 million off their books next year just through Orlando Hernandez, Moises Alou, and Pedro Martinez leaving or accepting considerably less money to return.

Florida Marlins
The Marlins have only a few major league free agents (and no real minor league FAs of note): Luis Gonzalez, Mark Hendrickson, Paul LoDuca, and Arthur Rhodes.

Most likely to return: LoDuca is unlikely to have any other suitors, so he may stay afloat with a minor league deal in Florida. I wouldn't hold my breath that any will return.


Most likely to leave: Rhodes was effective enough that he'll have one more year in the majors, but as a free agent who will be paid in real dollars, it seems pretty unlikely that it'd be in Florida.


Prospect on the rise: Cameron Maybin may be destined for the centerfield job this year, a year after most people thought he'd find his way into the Marlins' lineup. He showed he was ready in September and will certainly be a hyped rookie of the year candidate in 2009. Gaby Sanchez is now the heir apparent to the first base job with Jacobs shipped out. Brett Carroll is another hitter on the verge of the majors, but will likely only get a shot if Maybin fails to land a job.


Non-tender candidates: The Marlins will likely move several candidates for arbitration, including Kevin Gregg and Scott Olsen. If they can't find trading partners, I'd say there's about a 30-40% chance they'd non-tender Kevin Gregg, with whom they grew dissatisfied in the latter half of last year. But, this being baseball, where there's perpetually a need for anyone who's saved games with any success (and Gregg was superb until about a week before the All-Star break), the scenario is unlikely to present itself. Gregg's probably bound for Detroit, St. Louis, Cleveland, or even conceivably the NY Mets, Olsen will go to whoever the Marlins feel offers the best return (the Rangers have been mentioned numerous times, but I could see a package from the Indians centered around Kelly Shoppach and a corner outfielder (possibly Franklin Gutierrez) that would brnig back Olsen and Gregg.)

Needs: Catching and relief pitching, possibly another outfielder. Adding Leo Nunez gives the Marlins another young reliever to throw at the wall in the hopes that someone will stick, but it's still a bullpen composed of young and inexperienced relievers like Matt Lindstrom, Joe Nelson, and Renyel Pinto as the grizzled veterans. Adding a David Weathers or Jeremy Affeldt type would be the kind of move that would really make this a dangerous team, but is unlikely. The catching in Florida was a hole in 2008, although John Baker proved a useful Chris Coste-like stopgap who brutalized the Phillies last season. The Marlins have a couple prospects in CF in Maybin and Carroll that should keep them from using Cody Ross or Alfredo Amezaga as an everyday CF, but I wouldn't rule out acquiring another outfielder who could play in the corners.

Injuries that figure in 2009: Anibal Sanchez came back from labrum surgery in 2009, but never showed much effectiveness or durability. His continued recovery is the key to the rotation. Josh Johnson's rapid recovery from Tommy John was impressive, but he needs to maintain his effectiveness. Josh Willingham has been injury prone during his time in the majors, and he will need to stay healthy to keep Cody Ross from having to play left field every day -- which is a best case scenario asssuming that Maybin can hold the CF job.

Free agent ceiling: Casey Blake would be about as highly rated a player as I could envision the Marlins pursuing, and even that's something of a stretch. That said, they did sign Hanley Ramirez to a long-term deal, and Blake would be a useful player in LF, RF, 3B, and 1B for a team that's got question marks at those spots.

Atlanta Braves
The mish-mash of Braves' free agents has a couple hall of famers and an assorted cast of journeymen: Elmer Dessens, Tom Glavine, Mike Hampton, Jorge Julio, Corky Miller, Greg Norton, Will Ohman, John Smoltz, Julian Tavarez

Most likely to return: John Smoltz seems the most likely to return since he's played in Atlanta his entire career. If he returns, I'd believe it'd be to the Braves, since the Tigers aren't likely to make a play for his services a year after finishing last in the AL Central. Will Ohman is a valuable reliever and I'd guess the Braves will make a play to keep him, but he may find more money elsewhere after an 83-appearance season in Atlanta.

Most likely to leave: Dessens would be an obvious choice, but not even rabid Braves fans likely noticed his 4 game stint with the Braves, so my pick is Tavarez, who will probably have to settle for a bottom of the line contract from a bottom-budget team after getting rocked by both right and left-handed batters in 2008. He'll probably muster a minor league contract from a club like the Pirates or Royals who are trying to build bullpens on the cheap, but not much in the way of major league interest.

Prospect on the rise: Tommy Hanson is one of the most talked-about minor league prospects right now, and his name keeps surfacing around Peavy discussions as a player Frank Wren won't deal for Peavy. He is probably a year away, but with Brent Lillibridge and Jordan Schafer losing their footing in 2008, it's hard to see another Brave who's going to make an impact in 2009.

Non-tender candidates: I'm not seeing any.

Needs: Healthy arms and an outfielder with power. For as bad as the Braves were in 2008, they've actually proven to have a good offensive strategy outside of Jeff Francouer. Gregor Blanco hit a lousy .251, but still mustered an OBP of .366. Yunel Escobar batted .288 with an OBP of .366, and the Braves ended up 5th in the majors with an OBP of .354, and their power wasn't dreadful (slg. of .408, 20th in the majors). But for a team with no power, the Braves were astonishingly unable to steal bases (58 in 85 attempts, 28th in the majors). That doesn't lead to run production. The Braves need at least two starters behind Jair Jurrjens, Tim Hudson, and Jorge Campillo.

Injuries that figure in 2009: Smoltz and Glavine may not be able to pitch anywhere in 2009 because of injuries, but if they can, it'd probably be in Atlanta (Glavine has said he wouldn't pitch anywhere else). Chipper Jones was limited for much of last season by shoulder tendinitis, and with his history of injuries, it's hard to imagine it's the last time we've heard of this injury. Unless Kotchman really shows up, Chipper may be playing first base by the end of 2009.

Free agent ceiling: There's rumors floating around that Rafael Furcal may be on the horizon for the Braves. I could see them spending that kind of money, but Furcal would make little sense for a team that's loaded with serviceable/borderline-starter middle infielders like Omar Infante, Martin Prado, Yunel Escobar, and Kelly Johnson. I could see the Braves making a play for Ryan Dempster, Ben Sheets, Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, or Bobby Abreu.

Washington Nationals
The Nationals began their free agency period early by attempting to option a number of players to AAA: Chad Cordero, Pete Orr, Ryan Wagner, and Ryan Langerhans. Odalis Perez and Aaron Boone are the only players listed as major league free agents.

Most likely to return: Odalis Perez may be hard-pressed to find a multi-year deal anywhere else, considering how he performed after signing his deal in Los Angeles. While he could probably find one-year deals

Most likely to leave: Cordero's obviously gone and would make a lot of sense for teams like Cleveland or St. Louis, who need bullpen help, but don't want to pay for Brian Fuentes or Francisco Rodriguez. Cordero's not of the same caliber and has some injury questions, but he's been mostly successful in his career and will probably be available at some point in 2009. He's not a player to depend upon, but he could be a useful player to cushion the blow if closers like Jensen Lewis or Chris Perez falter.

Prospect on the rise: Ross Detwiler is still likely a ways from the Majors after playing last year at A ball, but the Nationals have pushed him into the Majors before (for one appearance in September 2007). He could enter the mix for the rotation and, with Balester, give the Nationals a pair of meaningful prospects. Roger Bernadina is hardly a top-end prospect, but he's got a good shot to take over an outfield spot and lead off for the Nationals in 2009. If he doesn't, DC-area native Justin Maxwell may very well win the job. Neither has much of a chance to produce big numbers in the majors, but this is the best Washington's system has. Luke Montz may get a shot to back up Jesus Flores in 2009, but isn't likely to do much more than Wil Nieves.

Non-tender candidates: The Nationals are cutting ties with Chad Cordero, having already announced their intention to non-tender the team's longest tenured player. As much as they no longer wish to pay Austin Kearns or Wily Mo Pena, they're locked into the contracts now.


Needs: Starting pitching, relief pitching, first base, second base, a corner outfielder who can stay healthy. The saddest thing is that I'm surprised it's this few positions. The Nationals got better than expected production from Cristian Guzman, who's still likely to suffer injuries in 2009 but were snakebit with injuries to Ryan Zimmerman and Lastings Milledge. The pitching cupboard isn't bare with John Lannan and the occasionally effective Colin Balester, but only Lannan's a lock for the 2009 rotation. That's never a good sign.

Injuries that figure in 2009: To be announced. With Cristian Guzman and Austin Kearns penciled into the lineup, it's a matter of time. Nick Johnson is expected to miss 2009 with a hangnail, after missing 2008 with a torn ulnar ligament in his wrist.

Free agent ceiling: Adam Dunn is exactly what Jim Bowden looks for -- a former Cincinnati Red. There's been talk of Dunn joining the Nats since his best friend (Austin Kearns) was traded in '06, and with the apparently tepid response to him in the July trade market and now in the rumor mill, it is completely plausible that he could end up in Washington if he thinks they'll leave him in LF.