Catching up; AL Central moves

Nick Punto signs a 2 year, $8.5 million deal with the Minnesota Twins
Punto offers a glove and can play all of the infield. That's about it. If the Twins are signing him expecting him to repeat 2008, they're going to be very surprised.

2008 Nick Punto offered a .726 OPS, not good, but respectable enough for a good-fielding middle infielder -- though, of course, if that's all the Twins wanted, they could have just kept Jason Bartlett (who received MVP votes for a .690 OPS in 2008, proof that at least one Tampa area sportswriter should face charges before a UN tribunal). So the Twins made a solid $4 million investment in a reasonably productive hitter and a versatile slick glove, right?

Wrong. They invested $4 million a year for an excellent Punto year, and one that wasn't particularly impressive at that. He's only twice cracked the .700 OPS threshold, mustering a .725 in 2006 and a .726 in 2008. In between, when entrusted with the starting job at third base in 2007, Punto mashed a whopping .562 OPS, .210/.291/.271. You read that right, a .271 slugging percentage. Punto can be expected to strike out about once every five at bats, a pretty high rate for such a punchless hitter (compare to players I regard as comparable -- this is probably a completely specious selection, since it proved my point so readily -- John McDonald (25 K in 186 at bats); Mark Grudzialanek (41 K in 331 at bats), David Eckstein (32 K in 334 at bats), he grounded into 10 double plays in 2008, and he has absolutely no power -- his career high for home runs in a season is 2. Lest you be enamored with his theoretical ability to move guys over -- nope, 7 sacrifices of any variety in 2008. So while I urged him as a more sensible alternative than paying Edgar Renteria real money -- let's not get carried away, the real issue was that Renteria is not worth money and Punto can at least field.

Punto at least bought the Twins an insurance policy so that they didn't HAVE to invest in multiple infielders, but they didn't really need one, because they already had Brendan Harris, who's certainly no equal with the glove, but has already shown considerably more offensive potential in his brief run in the majors and the ability to hit for power on a team that's got a dearth of it.

If they keep Punto as the starter, then the Twins should give serious consideration to moving Michael Cuddyer back to third to ensure Denard Span is in the everyday lineup. His production in 2008 was the key to turning the season into a near-playoff run, and although it's unlikely the Twins will put Carlos Gomez on the bench, he shouldn't be displacing Span. Slotting Cuddyer into third with Brian Buscher as an alternative means the Twins have some more offensive potential, though the real solution is putting Carlos Gomez on the bench until his bat can catch up with his glove.

Projected Twins lineup:
RF Span
2B Casilla
C Mauer
1B Morneau
DH Kubel
LF Young
3B Buscher
SS Punto
CF Gomez

Cleveland Indians sign Kerry Wood to a 2-year, $20.5 million contract

Although the Indians probably jumped the gun in signing Wood so early in the free agent period, by doing so, they helped move Mark Shapiro on to other projects that have ultimately been successful.

There’s really only one conclusion to the deal; if Wood stays healthy, it’s a win for the Indians. When Wood has been on the mound, success has always been the result. He’s had one below average season ever, and it was 8 years ago.

The move to the bullpen rejuvenated Wood’s career, he was solid in 2007, though he struggled to spot his pitches. In 2008, he showed pinpoint control, without losing his ability to strike out hitters.

Wood fared better at home than on the road, despite the Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field, but still posted solid numbers on the road. Wood blew 5 saves in 39 opportunities, certainly not a great proportion, but one that will prove to be a substantial improvement over Joe Borowski and while giving Indians fans far fewer heart attacks.

Wood proved durable, working on back-to-back days with some regularity (even pitching in four straight days in August).

I’m in the minority, but I think Wood was the premier closer on the free agent market. He has the strikeout flair and velocity that Francisco Rodriguez has lost, he has electric stuff even after years of arm problems, and he’s been consistently successful in a way that Brian Fuentes has not. And he’s still only 31. Most of all, he brings some actual force to the closer role. It’s been more than a decade since the Indians had a closer who could strike out hitters at a rate near one an inning. (Trivia buffs – the answer would be 1997’s part time closer Mike Jackson). If you exclude him…the Indians may never have had one. Not Ernie Camacho, Doug Jones, Jose Mesa, Bob Wickman, or the late Steve Olin. They’ve got one now.

Cleveland Indians trade Franklin Gutierrez to the Seattle Mariners for Luis Valbuena and acquire RHP Joe Smith from the New York Mets.

The Indians added a middling middle infield prospect and a relatively local right-handed reliever to fill out the bullpen in front of Kerry Wood for the price of Franklin Gutierrez. Although the return is relatively modest, it appears to be a solid move for the Indians, who are thin up the middle and appear to have completely given up on Josh Barfield.

The submarining Smith has been relatively ineffective in his two years in the Mets' organization. His ERA won't show it, though, having gotten by on sheer fortune. In 2007, despite a WHIP of 1.56, Smith rode a strikeout rate exceeding one per inning to a 3.45 ERA. In 2008, he cut down on baserunners and put sported a 3.45 ERA, but showed a vastly reduced ability to punch out hitters, and a skepticism-inducing 3 unearned runs out of 28 total runs. In 2007, his WHIP was driven largely by an astronomical BABIP (.360), but the reduction had just as much to do with it (a similarly unsustainable .271).

Smith's problem is his control. Although the numbers are skewed by the inclusion of 8 intentional walks in two major league seasons, Smith has a walk rate of just about 4.5 walks per 9 innings, which means a lot of dangerous innings. Smith is also extremely ineffective against left-handed hitters, which could create a tough situation for the Indians, whose left-handed complement to the bullpen currently consists of Rafael Perez and only Rafael Perez. His home run rate should also rise now that Smith is no longer pitching his home games in the vast expanse of Shea Stadium, but Smith has lived as an extreme groundball pitcher, so the difference will likely be one or two home runs at most.

Gutierrez was an enigma. He was a top prospect when the Indians acquired him from the Dodgers for Milton Bradley and had shown flashes of living up to the reputation, putting together a strong season in 2007, but regressed badly in 2008, looking incompetent against breaking balls and showing little ability to hit for power, steal bases, and a continued inability to work counts and draw walks. He was unlikely to warrant playing time over Ben Francisco, Shin-Soo Choo and David Dellucci, so trading him doesn't create much of a problem for the Indians, who would likely play Trevor Crowe in center field if Sizemore went down for an extended period of time.

Kyle Farnsworth signs a 2-year, $9.25 million contract with the Kansas City Royals (with a $8 million club option for 2010 with a $500,000 buyout)

Dayton Moore is making his case for joining the worst GMs in the World list – should it be extended to a Top 5, his 2008 is making him an obvious selection. Here, he’s buying a pitcher with electric stuff and absolutely no track record for success. Farnsworth has put up a career ERA of 4.47 and a WHIP of 1.40, surrendered a lot of home runs (particularly in recent years) and issued far too many walks. He put up respectable numbers in 2008 with the Yankees, who still fell all over themselves trying to trade him to the Tigers, with whom he put an astonishingly bad run (ERA of 6.75, WHIP of 2.00 in 16 innings pitched)

Aside from half a season in Detroit in 2005, Farnsworth’s only successful seasons have been in the National League.

The good news for the Royals is that after a brief plunge in his strikeout rate in 2007, Farnsworth was back to his usual strikeout an inning in 2008. The bad news is that he allowed 15 home runs in 60 innings in 2008. His fly-ball tendencies won’t be nearly as cataclysmic in Kauffman Stadium, which was the second worst park for hitting home runs in 2008, but home runs have never been Farnsworth’s primary problem, so the number was likely to plunge in 2009 anyway.