NY Mets sign Francisco Rodriguez
The Mets signed "K-Rod" to a 3 year, $37 million deal that will, in my estimation, cause them serious regrets by no later than September 2009. This is a very bad contract to hand to a player whose velocity was dropping in 2008, even if he did save 62 games. Keep in mind also that Rodriguez had very few tough saves and didn't fare all that well in converting saves (he blew 7 save opportunities in '08), and that although he's never made a trip to the disabled list before...that and his drop in velocity could just mean he's due for a visit to the elbow surgeon. He costs the Mets loads of money and a first-round pick, though Fuentes would have cost them the first rounder as well.
Most concerning is Rodriguez's decline in strikeout rate. In 2008, his strikeout rate has decreased from 1.34 K/IP in 2006 and 2007 to 1.13 K/IP in 2008. That's a huge dropoff to have in one season, and it's a rate that can be matched by more garden variety closers (last year's free agent suspension of disbelief Francisco Cordero, for instance, mustered 1.11 K/IP in 2008), not just the Brad Lidges of the world. Moreover, he is wild, walking 1/2 a batter per inning pitched (which does put him in Brad Lidge territory -- which in this case, is a bad thing).
The Mets didn't have any heirs apparent to fill the role, but there are a lot of red flags to indicate that Rodriguez is not worth such a substantial investment.
Cincinnati Reds trade Ryan Freel, Justin Turner, and Brandon Waring to the Baltimore Orioles for Ramon Hernandez and more than $1 million.
Dusty Baker has long had the reputation for loving old players. He's got one more now. Ramon Hernandez's contract was a disaster for the Orioles and the Orioles' most promising player is a catcher. So they shipped him off to a team that has a promising young catcher of their own in Ryan Hanigan (though not on par with Wieters, by any means). Hernandez has some power and at least among the Reds is mistaken for being a handler of pitchers (because of his time with Zito, Mulder, and Hudson -- apparently not for the 5.13 ERA the Orioles pitchers mustered in 2008). Unfortunately, he didn't offer much at all since signing with the Orioles and is two seasons removed from warranting any meaningful playing time because of his offense. He will make Dusty Baker happy because he won't clog the bases by drawing pesky walks, but it's a sad day in Cincinnati that he has almost certainly become the default starting option for the Reds over Hanigan, who looked phenomenal during a September cameo in 2008.
Ryan Freel is a player whose play is often called gritty, high-character and clutch solely because he's a white guy -- oh, and he steals bases. He is a relatively useful player at a number of positions, unfortunately for the Orioles, all of those are positions they've essentially filled. He's played extensively in right field, center field (not a good fit for him), second base, and third base (not ideal, though I think he's underrated as a defensive third baseman). He makes a lot of plays that others wouldn't, but it comes at the expense of missing some plays the average player would make. He is a player who literally runs into walls, but he gets injured a lot. The last couple of years, he's shown very poor baserunning instincts, being caught 12 times in 33 steal attempts, and couldn't put anything together at the plate in 2007. 2008 led to him being cast as a center fielder, he didn't stay healthy long, playing in only 48 games. My guess is that Freel will get to spend some time in center field, which could give the Orioles an opportunity to have a speedy leadoff batter but move Roberts into a better run producing spot. If Aubrey Huff will play first, it gives them a lot more potent lineup as well, fitting an extra major league hitter into the fold.
Brandon Waring is a third base prospect with monumental power -- 20 home runs in 68 games in rookie ball in 2007, 20 home runs in a full season at low-A Dayton this year and is likely to have to move from third base because of marginal athleticism. But he strikes out. A lot. 156 strikeouts in 441 at bats marked his run in low A ball, and he offered only 43 walks in comparison, so it wasn't necessarily because he's a patient hitter. He seems to have a similar skill set to the third base prospect the Orioles acquired this time last year -- Mike Costanzo, who offered a profoundly underwhelming season at AAA Norfolk, so perhaps the Orioles are moving on.
Justin Turner is a middle infielder whose high-end projection puts him as a borderline everyday second baseman. He produced a solid season for the Reds' minor league system, slugging 8 home runs in his stint in AA Charleston and putting together a .792 OPS, even though he's regarded as a prospect with no real slugging potential. He makes pretty good contact (.316 average at A, .279 at AA), but doesn't make enough of it (73 strikeouts in 416 at bats).
Orioles projected lineup as of this move:
CF Freel
2B Roberts
RF Markakis
1B Huff*
3B Mora
DH Scott/Montanez
LF Jones
C Wieters*
SS Salazar*
Reds projected lineup as of this move:
LF Dickerson
CF Hopper*
2B Phillips
RF Bruce
1B Votto
3B Encarnacion
C Hernandez/Hanigan
SS Gonzalez/Keppinger
P Harang/Volquez/Arroyo/Cueto/Owings/Maloney/Thompson/Bailey
Chicago White Sox trade Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan to the Atlanta Braves for Brent Lillibridge, Tyler Flowers, Jon Gilmore, and Santos Rodriguez
The White Sox traded a moderately effective starter and a reliever with an odd arm slot for four minor leaguers, one of whom has already underwhelmed at the major league level, one of whom projects to have to move to a new position (DH), and two who are virtually impossible to project because of inexperience.
Javier Vazquez has been only a marginally effective starting pitcher since leaving the Montreal Expos after the 2003 season. He's compiled only one season in that span with an ERA under 4.00, which was also his only season with an ERA+ of better than 100. He is what has now become known as an innings-eater, someone who, despite not being particularly effective, gets to pitch 200 innings and finish with numbers that show a lengthy run of mediocrity ahead. Even the unreliable won-loss record speaks volumes for Vazquez, who has compiled a 63-61 record since 2003 despite pitching on the 2004 Yankees (who won 101 games). Vazquez hasn't experienced a dropoff in strikeouts (where he's still among the league's best starting pitchers), which is a good sign, but in 2008, hits, walks, and, of course, WHIP spiked and home runs allowed stayed at a predictable career median of 25. In a more pitcher-friendly park and the National League, it's quite possible that Vazquez could have a good year, but he's not going to prove to be an ace for the Braves.
Boone Logan is a left-handed pitcher who relies upon deception to get batters out, because of his three-quarters arm slot. Bad news, Boone. It's not working. Against left-handers, he allowed 30 hits and 5 walks in 25 2/3 innings pitched. Not good numbers, leading to a .291 BAA. Against right-handers, they might has well have intentionally walked them -- BAA of .351, 27 hits and 9 walks in 16 2/3 innings, which gives him a WHIP of 2.16 against right-handers. Oh, and he gives up home runs 7 in 42 1/3 innings pitched. That said, he throws left-handed, which on the Braves should guarantee him a spot in the bullpen -- as is, at most he'll have to compete with Eric O'Flaherty, who was so bad the Mariners let him go after 2008.
In exchange, the Braves offered once-promising Brent Lillibridge, the prospect at the core of the Adam LaRoche trade that seems to have hurt both the Braves and the Pirates (though the Braves at least got Mike Gonzalez, they had to suffer through the Scott Thorman half-year before trading their future for Mark Teixeira). Lillibridge did nothing to earn the confidence of the Braves' brass in 2008, sputtering horribly at the major league level and playing even worse at AAA (.220/.294/.344). He's a solid defensive shortstop and may be able to steal a few bases (23 in AAA in 30 attempts), but is probably never going to be projected as a starter after the relapse in 2008. He's now plugged behind Alexei Ramirez in the White Sox's plans.
The most respected player in the deal for the White Sox is catcher/first baseman Tyler Flowers, who is weak defensively behind the plate and projects elsewhere, but can crush the ball -- 17 home runs at Myrtle Beach in the homer-cursed Carolina League (in comparison, the Wilmington Blue Rocks hit 61 home runs for the SEASON). Flowers really made his name in the Arizona Fall League where he hit 12 home runs in 75 at bats and posted a modest OPS of 1.433. He tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs when he first entered professional baseball, so he'll be watched closely as he progresses through the White Sox system, but he may be the replacement for Jim Thome in 2010 (assuming the Sox don't trade Thome this season). The bad news is that upon hearing about the trade, he relished the idea of playing DH.
Santos Rodriguez has only 26 games of professional experience but has shown the ability to strike out hitters (45 Ks in 29 IP in 2008 at the Gulf Coast League). He has little control at this point (13 BB in 2008), but is also only 20 years old.
Jon Gilmore is a 20-year-old third base prospect who figured in the lower-echelons of prospects for the Braves last year because of his projected power. After two seasons, it remains projected, with Gilmore notching only 4 home runs in 360 at bats split between rookie and low A ball in 2008. He was a first round sandwich pick for the Braves in 2007 out of high school, but hasn't shown much in the way of polish in his early going (.291/.313/.379 career thus far).
St. Louis Cardinals trade relief pitcher Mark Worrell and a PTBNL to the San Diego Padres for Khalil Greene
The Padres are in full on fire sale mode here. Although they don't have a shortstop in their organization (perhaps they should have drafted one #1 overall a few years ago, as opposed to Matt Bush...who is now a pitcher), they dealt Khalil Greene, who was unjustifiably expensive after a disastrous 2008. All the Cardinals gave up was an aging relief pitching prospect who relies on a submarine motion to retire batters and fared poorly at the Major League level in extremely limited activity.
The Cardinals aren't guaranteed a win on this deal, Khalil Greene has been overrated from day one, but thus far the Cardinals dealt a player who was unhappy with their organization (Mark Worrell) and in whom they apparently didn't have much confidence, having removed him from the closer role in the minors on numerous occasions. They only gave him a brief stint in 2008 in the Majors and moved him quickly, so his griping about the organization may not be entirely baseless. Worrell had a substantial jump in his walk rate in his repeat run through AAA, though he continued to hone his ability to punch out hitters (80 K in 58 2/3 IP) and improved his ERA by nearly a run. He's 25, so he's nearing the point where he needs to stick in the majors, but he should get that opportunity in San Diego, where Heath Bell, Cla Meredith, Mike Adams, and Justin Hampson are going to have to fill the void of Trevor Hoffman.
So the upside for the Cardinals is that they have a shortstop who should hit at least 15 home runs and probably more since he's rescued from Petco Park. The downside is that the shortstop who hits those 15 home runs will be Khalil Greene, who's seen plenty of pitches he didn't like, but few at which he wouldn't swing. If you're a player who hits 27 home runs and you finish with an OPS+ of 100...you are not a good player. And that was Greene in one of his peak years (2007). Yes, his batting average should improve outside of Petco, where he was an abomination (.225/.289/.369 career), but he's still a +40 OBP kind of guy (meaning his OBP will only be about 40 points higher than his average -- only the truly impatient players (Pedro Feliz, anyone?) in the game reach this kind of infamy. And if you know you're hitting .215...why are you swinging?
Greene is an above-average defensive shortstop, he'll be a better lineup presence than Cesar Izturis was, if only because he might hit for some power, but he's a number 7/8 (and in LaRussa's sick world, 9) hitter. Expecting anything more than that is folly.
Verdict: The Cardinals could certainly do better, I have little confidence in Khalil Greene. But the jury's out until that player to be named has been identified.
Cardinals projected lineup right now:
LF Schumacker
CF Ankiel
1B Pujols
RF Ludwick
3B Glaus
C Molina
SS Greene
P Wainwright/Lohse/Wellemeyer/Pineiro/Carpenter
2B Miles/Ryan*
Detroit Tigers trade two minor leaguers to the Texas Rangers for Gerald Laird
Gerald Laird had been getting mentioned in trades for years now, it was inevitable that he would get moved at some point. The Tigers needed catching badly and were willing to overpay for a very middling catcher, clearly the least intriguing of the four the Rangers had to offer, albeit one of only two who project as good defensive catchers (the other being Taylor Teagarden). Laird had a decent enough season for a catcher offensively in 2008, but is one year removed from a sub-.290 OBP season -- one of two in his very brief major league career (in only four seasons with more than 130 AB). Those numbers also came in a park that turns hitters into juggernauts, as opposed to the park he's headed to, which will be considerably less friendly to his gap power.
In order to get Gerald Laird, the Tigers had to surrender two minor league pitching prospects. That's astonishing, considering that 1) the Rangers were in a bind as far as moving at least one catcher in a trade, 2) Gerald Laird isn't very good, and 3) the Tigers are not in any position to contend. The Tigers dealt right-handed pitcher Guillermo Moscoso and 17-year-old prospect Carlos Melo in order to land Laird. Melo apparently has electric stuff for a 17-year-old, but he is 17, so he's nearly impossible to project. Moscoso is similarly hard to get a read on, largely because he's never stayed healthy long enough to make an impact (he didn't show up in the prospect poor Tigers' top 30 prospects in 2008). He pitched only 86 2/3 innings in 2008, which was only 4 innings off his professional career high. But he has been superb when he has been on the mound, compiling a 2.80 career ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and more than a strikeout an inning in his trips through R/A/AA, while walking only about 2.25 batters per nine innings pitched.
Verdict: the Rangers win, because they had nothing to lose in dealing Laird.
Los Angeles Dodgers sign free agent third baseman Casey Blake for 3 years, $17.5 million
The Indians and Twins left this bidding pretty early, so the Dodgers were basically bidding against themselves. Blake benefited from a very weak market at third base.
He's a serviceable third baseman, he makes most of the plays he should, he won't make many beyond that. From what I've seen of him (a fair amount), he strikes me as a profoundly average defender. His range factor/9 for his career is 2.69 compared to a league average of 2.65. His zone rating of .768 isn't great, but it's not awful -- nor even the worst in the division (.751 for Mark Reynolds, .787 for Garret Atkins, .768 for Kevin Kouzmanoff).
Signing Blake makes some sense for the Dodgers, but since they had Blake DeWitt already, there may have been greater value in pursuing a second baseman instead. The real winner here is Casey Blake's agent, who deserves a lot of credit for getting a three year deal for an aging player that's basically league average.
Dodgers projected lineup right now:
LF Pierre
CF Kemp
C Martin
RF Ethier
1B Loney
3B Blake
2B DeWitt
SS Hu*
P Billingsley/Kuroda/Kershaw/McDonald/Schmidt*
*The asterisks denote places where I believe a move will yet be made -- based on the position, not the player. For instance, 1B Aubrey Huff* for the Orioles gets an asterisk not because I expect Huff will be traded, but because I think the Orioles will acquire a first baseman and Huff will play DH.
Showing posts with label Atlanta Braves. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Atlanta Braves. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
Monday, December 8, 2008
Free agent moves: Renteria, Howry, Branyan, Everett...seriously
Giants signed Edgar Renteria to a 2 year, $18.5 million deal
The Giants signed Edgar Renteria, continuing to build Brian Sabean's bridge to the past. Next week, I'm laying even odds that the Giants sign John McCain -- though in defense of that move, McCain would probably be a more adequate offensive first baseman than Travis Ishikawa and all indications are that McCain can be bought for considerably less than Edgar Renteria. Zing.
Renteria is a serviceable player who has rarely been more than that and regressed defensively to be considerably below average in 2008. Renteria's not going to add signicant home run pop to the lineup, but adds another Aaron Roward, Fred Lewis 15-20 home-run ceiling guy to the lineup. He's likely to be an offensive upgrade from Emmanuel Burriss, sure, but he's not worth the alarming price they paid for a shortstop that no one seemed too gung ho on adding. Renteria is and almost always has been a league average guy. Since he plays shortstop, league average isn't a bad thing, but he adds only marginally more than a Mark Grudzialanek (if any). Renteria has fared better in the National League, but don't get confused into thinking 2007 shows what he'll do, 2007 showed only what BABIP can do when all luck breaks in someone's favor, because Renteria's was nearly .400 in 2007. When it returned to league average in 2008, so did he.
Renteria's speed has decayed as well, limiting him to 6 steals in 2008, and his extra base potential was negligible, mustering only 22 doubles and 2 triples in cavernous Comerica (National) Park. So despite the Giants having a dearth of power (Bengie Molina led the team with 16 home runs last year, the team mustered a whopping .382 SLG), it's not clear that Renteria is going to add much there. Certainly $9.25 million a year could have bought more on this market -- rather than a guy who slugged the same as Nick Punto, but with a considerably lower OBP and worse glove. Punto (.284/.344/.382) and Grudzialanek (.299/.345/.399) could probably have both been had for $9.25 million, and even if Renteria's 2008 was an aberration, it's unlikely it was much of one.
Giants sign Bobby Howry to a 1 year, $2.75 million contract
The Giants signed Bobby Howry, a move that helps add unnecessary age to the Giants' roster, but adds a potentially serviceable right-handed reliever. At 2.75 million, he's a reasonable gamble, but it's hard to see him being a great pitcher in 2008. Howry is 35 now, and has been worked hard over his last few seasons (73, 76 2/3, 81 1/3, 70 2/3) for a reliever. Howry hasn't seen an uptick in his walk rate that would presage decline, but his strikeouts were down in 2008 after being up in 2006 and 2007. And a 1.46 WHIP and 90 hits in 70 2/3 innings don't encourage anyone except opposing hitters.
Atlanta signs C David Ross to a two-year, $3 million contract
Huh? $3 million for a backup catcher to Brian McCann? 2 years to David Ross? Frank Wren has lost his mind. If you want to find out how John Schuerholz got so much from the Braves for so long, it was by avoiding throwing real money at the players who were there to not play. His heir apparent hasn't learned this. Instead of going with Clint Sammons, Brayan Pena, or any of the other backup catchers that have dotted a 40-man roster in recent years, the Braves sign a catcher to a $3 million deal when it's not certain he could have gotten a major league contract elsewhere. He lost his job in Cincinnati to Paul Bako and Javier Valentin in the last two years. Moreover, Ross has enough power that he might be a useful pinch hitter -- but you can't use him as a pinch hitter unless you're carrying three catchers.
I'm of the opinion that backup catcher is one of the places where a low-budget team can and should cut costs. (I originally typed that as costes...which I think is a Freudian slip, since I think another great option for the Braves is to wait until March and pick up Chris Coste after the Phillies cut him loose to make room for Lou Marson.) David Ross is a waste of money for a team that's a long way from filling all their holes. Billy Traber signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox for considerably less, and would have filled a far greater need for the Braves -- someone who might be able to pitch.
Seattle Mariners sign Russell Branyan to a one year, $1.4 million contract
The Mariners first move in the offseason was to sign Russell Branyan. No need to print those playoff tickets now, Mariners fans. Branyan is king of the small sample size -- he can make for one pretty stat sheet so long as he doesn't face right-handed pitchers, so long as you don't look at defensive statistics and so long as you don't give random chance an opportunity to start evening things out. He has prodigious power, he draws a good number of walks, and he strikes out nearly every other time he's at the plate. In 2000 career at bats, he's struck out 797 times. Branyan has had three years of below average BABIP, but he's also the kind of player you don't expect to fare well in BABIP because if he puts it in play (remember: BABIP excludes home runs), it's an out. He's a three true outcomes hitter -- home runs, walks, strikeouts.
Branyan will probably see a lot of time at 1B and DH for the Mariners, who are currently slated to fill those slots with Bryan LaHair and...oh lord. It's astonishing to think that Erik Bedard was on the Mariners' radar a year ago and they were supposed to contend for the AL West title. Look what a load of lousy free agent signings (Richie Sexson, Jarrod Washburn, Carlos Silva) and idiotic trades with the Cleveland Indians for platoon players (Asdrubal Cabrera for Eduardo Perez; Shin-Soo Choo for Ben Broussard) can do to an organization. Then subtract top-level prospects like Chris Tillman and Adam Jones and this team is stripped down to Ichiro, Adrian Beltre, and a middle infield that had a COMBINED +46 OBP. (Betancourt adding 21 points, Lopez a much more patient 25). To emphasize how awful that combined +46 OBP is...keep in mind, through no virtue of "patience", Chase Utley added 38 points to his OBP by being HIT WITH PITCHES. Lean in next year, Yuniesky/Jose.
Mariners projected lineup as of this move:
RF Suzuki
CF Reed
2B Lopez
3B Beltre
DH Branyan/Johjima (yeah, seriously)
LF Balantien
C Clement
1B LaHair
SS Betancourt
Detroit Tigers sign Adam Everett to a one year, $1 million deal
So much for the lineup of nine intimidating bats, the Tigers are now down to signing punchless defensive wizards to fill the holes in their lineup. Adam Everett will split time with Ramon Santiago at shortstop, neither of them will hit the ball. Everett can field (range factor about 1/2 a play per nine innings over league average for his career), but can't hit, hit for power, draw a whole lot of walks, or steal many bases. If Everett could summon his 2004 numbers (.273/.317/.385) and muster an OPS over .700, he might be worth playing even on a half-decent team. It's not likely to happen. Even on a defense-first team in Minnesota last year, they decided there was more to life than fielding grounders and he lost his job to the mighty Nick Punto/Brendan Harris combination that will some day be remembered alongside Honus Wagner as shortstops who did not appear on tobacco companies' baseball cards (Wagner because he insisted to be removed, Punto and Harris because tobacco sales are lagging enough as is).
Tigers projected lineup as of this move:
CF Granderson
2B Polanco
LF Guillen
RF Ordonez
1B Cabrera
DH Sheffield
C Laird
3B Inge
SS Everett
Boston Red Sox sign Junichi Tazawa
I don't know anything about Tazawa, I know that he's not major league ready, considering the contract he landed from the Red Sox. Japanese pitchers are spotty at best and tend to burn out quickly. Hideki Irabu, Hideo Nomo, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kasuhiro Sasaki, Tomo Ohka, Masahide Kobayashi, and Kei Igawa are all names that were supposed to be impacts, but aside from Daisuke (who is fine as a 6-inning pitcher, but hasn't done anything beyond that), the others had fleeting impacts and burned out quickly. He'll have a couple mentors in Matsuzaka and Hideki Okajima, but will not probably play a major role for this team this year.
Milwaukee Brewers sign Jorge Julio
Jorge Julio is a player that's never worth signing in November, but can prove useful if you're the second team in a season to end up with him. For three straight years, he's been ineffective with the team he began the year with (Mets, Marlins, Indians) and found himself released or traded to a new team (Diamondbacks, Rockies, Braves). Then he puts up better numbers with his new team and finds himself a free agent yet again. After six seasons of 60+ appearances, 2008 brought him a bad run with the Indians as a mop-up man who never found himself worthy of anything better and then sent him to the out-of-contention Braves where he dazzled with a 0.73 ERA without really earning it -- his WHIP (1.38) was nearly twice his ERA. Julio walks a ton of batters with a career rate of nearly .5 BB/IP that has increased as his career has continued. But he's only two seasons removed from a year where he struck out 88 batters in 67 IP, so it's not hard to see why teams keep considering him a minor option. For a team as bullpen-needy as the Brewers, it makes sense. He is another failed closer to dump into the closer-by-committee role that seems to be developing with Todd Coffey and David Riske as the "anchors" to the back end of the Brewers' pen.
Cleveland Indians sign Toma Ohka
If I weren't a Tribe fan, there's no way this would be worthy of mention. It still isn't. If he stays healthy, he could be a fifth starter. But that's a big if, and the Indians don't need a fifth starter, they already have a few in their rotation with Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers, and Zach Jackson. I refuse to provide any additional analysis, I regard Ohka making a major league appearance as astonishingly unlikely -- Scott Elarton may yet return.
I'm way behind on trades, so I hope to get to those tomorrow.
The Giants signed Edgar Renteria, continuing to build Brian Sabean's bridge to the past. Next week, I'm laying even odds that the Giants sign John McCain -- though in defense of that move, McCain would probably be a more adequate offensive first baseman than Travis Ishikawa and all indications are that McCain can be bought for considerably less than Edgar Renteria. Zing.
Renteria is a serviceable player who has rarely been more than that and regressed defensively to be considerably below average in 2008. Renteria's not going to add signicant home run pop to the lineup, but adds another Aaron Roward, Fred Lewis 15-20 home-run ceiling guy to the lineup. He's likely to be an offensive upgrade from Emmanuel Burriss, sure, but he's not worth the alarming price they paid for a shortstop that no one seemed too gung ho on adding. Renteria is and almost always has been a league average guy. Since he plays shortstop, league average isn't a bad thing, but he adds only marginally more than a Mark Grudzialanek (if any). Renteria has fared better in the National League, but don't get confused into thinking 2007 shows what he'll do, 2007 showed only what BABIP can do when all luck breaks in someone's favor, because Renteria's was nearly .400 in 2007. When it returned to league average in 2008, so did he.
Renteria's speed has decayed as well, limiting him to 6 steals in 2008, and his extra base potential was negligible, mustering only 22 doubles and 2 triples in cavernous Comerica (National) Park. So despite the Giants having a dearth of power (Bengie Molina led the team with 16 home runs last year, the team mustered a whopping .382 SLG), it's not clear that Renteria is going to add much there. Certainly $9.25 million a year could have bought more on this market -- rather than a guy who slugged the same as Nick Punto, but with a considerably lower OBP and worse glove. Punto (.284/.344/.382) and Grudzialanek (.299/.345/.399) could probably have both been had for $9.25 million, and even if Renteria's 2008 was an aberration, it's unlikely it was much of one.
Giants sign Bobby Howry to a 1 year, $2.75 million contract
The Giants signed Bobby Howry, a move that helps add unnecessary age to the Giants' roster, but adds a potentially serviceable right-handed reliever. At 2.75 million, he's a reasonable gamble, but it's hard to see him being a great pitcher in 2008. Howry is 35 now, and has been worked hard over his last few seasons (73, 76 2/3, 81 1/3, 70 2/3) for a reliever. Howry hasn't seen an uptick in his walk rate that would presage decline, but his strikeouts were down in 2008 after being up in 2006 and 2007. And a 1.46 WHIP and 90 hits in 70 2/3 innings don't encourage anyone except opposing hitters.
Atlanta signs C David Ross to a two-year, $3 million contract
Huh? $3 million for a backup catcher to Brian McCann? 2 years to David Ross? Frank Wren has lost his mind. If you want to find out how John Schuerholz got so much from the Braves for so long, it was by avoiding throwing real money at the players who were there to not play. His heir apparent hasn't learned this. Instead of going with Clint Sammons, Brayan Pena, or any of the other backup catchers that have dotted a 40-man roster in recent years, the Braves sign a catcher to a $3 million deal when it's not certain he could have gotten a major league contract elsewhere. He lost his job in Cincinnati to Paul Bako and Javier Valentin in the last two years. Moreover, Ross has enough power that he might be a useful pinch hitter -- but you can't use him as a pinch hitter unless you're carrying three catchers.
I'm of the opinion that backup catcher is one of the places where a low-budget team can and should cut costs. (I originally typed that as costes...which I think is a Freudian slip, since I think another great option for the Braves is to wait until March and pick up Chris Coste after the Phillies cut him loose to make room for Lou Marson.) David Ross is a waste of money for a team that's a long way from filling all their holes. Billy Traber signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox for considerably less, and would have filled a far greater need for the Braves -- someone who might be able to pitch.
Seattle Mariners sign Russell Branyan to a one year, $1.4 million contract
The Mariners first move in the offseason was to sign Russell Branyan. No need to print those playoff tickets now, Mariners fans. Branyan is king of the small sample size -- he can make for one pretty stat sheet so long as he doesn't face right-handed pitchers, so long as you don't look at defensive statistics and so long as you don't give random chance an opportunity to start evening things out. He has prodigious power, he draws a good number of walks, and he strikes out nearly every other time he's at the plate. In 2000 career at bats, he's struck out 797 times. Branyan has had three years of below average BABIP, but he's also the kind of player you don't expect to fare well in BABIP because if he puts it in play (remember: BABIP excludes home runs), it's an out. He's a three true outcomes hitter -- home runs, walks, strikeouts.
Branyan will probably see a lot of time at 1B and DH for the Mariners, who are currently slated to fill those slots with Bryan LaHair and...oh lord. It's astonishing to think that Erik Bedard was on the Mariners' radar a year ago and they were supposed to contend for the AL West title. Look what a load of lousy free agent signings (Richie Sexson, Jarrod Washburn, Carlos Silva) and idiotic trades with the Cleveland Indians for platoon players (Asdrubal Cabrera for Eduardo Perez; Shin-Soo Choo for Ben Broussard) can do to an organization. Then subtract top-level prospects like Chris Tillman and Adam Jones and this team is stripped down to Ichiro, Adrian Beltre, and a middle infield that had a COMBINED +46 OBP. (Betancourt adding 21 points, Lopez a much more patient 25). To emphasize how awful that combined +46 OBP is...keep in mind, through no virtue of "patience", Chase Utley added 38 points to his OBP by being HIT WITH PITCHES. Lean in next year, Yuniesky/Jose.
Mariners projected lineup as of this move:
RF Suzuki
CF Reed
2B Lopez
3B Beltre
DH Branyan/Johjima (yeah, seriously)
LF Balantien
C Clement
1B LaHair
SS Betancourt
Detroit Tigers sign Adam Everett to a one year, $1 million deal
So much for the lineup of nine intimidating bats, the Tigers are now down to signing punchless defensive wizards to fill the holes in their lineup. Adam Everett will split time with Ramon Santiago at shortstop, neither of them will hit the ball. Everett can field (range factor about 1/2 a play per nine innings over league average for his career), but can't hit, hit for power, draw a whole lot of walks, or steal many bases. If Everett could summon his 2004 numbers (.273/.317/.385) and muster an OPS over .700, he might be worth playing even on a half-decent team. It's not likely to happen. Even on a defense-first team in Minnesota last year, they decided there was more to life than fielding grounders and he lost his job to the mighty Nick Punto/Brendan Harris combination that will some day be remembered alongside Honus Wagner as shortstops who did not appear on tobacco companies' baseball cards (Wagner because he insisted to be removed, Punto and Harris because tobacco sales are lagging enough as is).
Tigers projected lineup as of this move:
CF Granderson
2B Polanco
LF Guillen
RF Ordonez
1B Cabrera
DH Sheffield
C Laird
3B Inge
SS Everett
Boston Red Sox sign Junichi Tazawa
I don't know anything about Tazawa, I know that he's not major league ready, considering the contract he landed from the Red Sox. Japanese pitchers are spotty at best and tend to burn out quickly. Hideki Irabu, Hideo Nomo, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kasuhiro Sasaki, Tomo Ohka, Masahide Kobayashi, and Kei Igawa are all names that were supposed to be impacts, but aside from Daisuke (who is fine as a 6-inning pitcher, but hasn't done anything beyond that), the others had fleeting impacts and burned out quickly. He'll have a couple mentors in Matsuzaka and Hideki Okajima, but will not probably play a major role for this team this year.
Milwaukee Brewers sign Jorge Julio
Jorge Julio is a player that's never worth signing in November, but can prove useful if you're the second team in a season to end up with him. For three straight years, he's been ineffective with the team he began the year with (Mets, Marlins, Indians) and found himself released or traded to a new team (Diamondbacks, Rockies, Braves). Then he puts up better numbers with his new team and finds himself a free agent yet again. After six seasons of 60+ appearances, 2008 brought him a bad run with the Indians as a mop-up man who never found himself worthy of anything better and then sent him to the out-of-contention Braves where he dazzled with a 0.73 ERA without really earning it -- his WHIP (1.38) was nearly twice his ERA. Julio walks a ton of batters with a career rate of nearly .5 BB/IP that has increased as his career has continued. But he's only two seasons removed from a year where he struck out 88 batters in 67 IP, so it's not hard to see why teams keep considering him a minor option. For a team as bullpen-needy as the Brewers, it makes sense. He is another failed closer to dump into the closer-by-committee role that seems to be developing with Todd Coffey and David Riske as the "anchors" to the back end of the Brewers' pen.
Cleveland Indians sign Toma Ohka
If I weren't a Tribe fan, there's no way this would be worthy of mention. It still isn't. If he stays healthy, he could be a fifth starter. But that's a big if, and the Indians don't need a fifth starter, they already have a few in their rotation with Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers, and Zach Jackson. I refuse to provide any additional analysis, I regard Ohka making a major league appearance as astonishingly unlikely -- Scott Elarton may yet return.
I'm way behind on trades, so I hope to get to those tomorrow.
Friday, November 7, 2008
NL East: Offseason Outlook
Offseason outlook:
Philadelphia Phillies
I'll start with the 2008 World Champions, since I still can't believe that's a description of the Phillies, and because it's the team I'm the major league club I'm most familiar with (through little more than proximity). The Phillies have a few free agents on their roster. Jamie Moyer, Pat Burrell, Scott Eyre, So Taguchi, Tom Gordon, Rudy Seanez, and Taduhito Iguchi are all in a position to leave the club.
Most likely to return: Moyer is a near lock, given that his other real hope would be to return to the Mariners, who really need to get younger and turn their team around. Burrell was given a blow-off with the 2 year, $22 million offer, so although I was confident he'd be back, I no longer feel that the Phillies have a genuine interest in keeping him.
Most likely to leave: Taguchi can't offer the Phillies anything, having failed as a defensive replacement and been replaced by Eric Bruntlett in the regular season and the playoffs. He's probably done as a major leaguer and rumors have already begun that he'll be in Japan next year.
Prospect on the rise: Maybe it's just me, but I would be extremely surprised to see Lou Marson open the season in the minor leagues. He showed a solid bat at Reading (.849 OPS) and it makes sense to get him major league experience while the team still has its core intact, lest you need him to contribute from day one. It's certainly possible that the Phillies put him in AAA in the '09 season and keep Coste at the # 2 spot, and even possible that the Phillies simply carry Coste as a super sub who can fill in at catcher, first base, third base, or the corner outfield spots, but Manuel's not shown a willingness to carry three catchers. The only other prospects I envision seeing in Philadelphia are Jason Donald (Sept. '09 -- earlier if a middle infielder gets injured), Carrasco
Non-tender candidates: Chris Coste. I hope it's not going to happen, but Charlie Manuel made it abundantly clear he favored Ruiz, starting him in every playoff game. With Marson in the wings, a 35-year-old backup catcher is relatively expendable, even if he's a better hitter than most. There may be a trade market for Coste, who would seemingly fit in well with a number of clubs, particularly the Reds, but I feel that if a trade doesn't get done, Coste will probably be non-tendered.
Needs: Pat Burrell? The team needs a right-handed hitting outfielder, though they're unlikely to shell out much for one since they're locked in to a big contract with Geoff Jenkins and still have Matt Stairs under contract for next year. Best case for the Phillies is that Stairs elects to retire, but if he's thinking about it, he's not saying so. That'd free up a roster spot that could be used for a right-handed platoon option to pair with Jenkins, if the Phillies do let Burrell walk. If they fill it from within, they're counting on Greg Golson to develop as a hitter in a hurry.
The Phillies could use a dependable starting pitcher, but have a lot of # 6 starter types and there's always the lingering possibility that Madson gets moved into the rotation. Short of Derek Lowe falling through every crack or some way-below-market deal for an injury prone pitcher like Ben Sheets, it's unlikely the Phillies land another starter to join Kendrick/Happ/Eaton in the mix. Carlos Carrasco is on the horizon, so it probably makes sense to let Happ/Kendrick try to show what they can and give Carrasco a shot at mid-season if the available options aren't there.
Injuries that figure in 2009: The Phillies' bullpen has a lot more options returning because Scott Mathieson and Mike Zagurski both missed the entire 2008 season with injuries. Zagurski gives them the winner of the Scott Eyre-lookalike contest, Mathieson has long been a prospect in the organization, but has been beset by injuries. Pedro Feliz missed time with a balky back in the late season, and that isn't likely an injury we've heard the last from.
Free agent ceiling: The Phillies have made loads of extra money from the playoff run, but aren't likely to be a big player on the free agent market given the arbitration raises that will go to Ryan Howard and others. Their top free agent target would likely be a Pat Burrell/Adam Dunn type in the range of $13-14 million a season, and the Phillies have already shown a reluctance to pay that much. There are rumors that the Phillies are interested in Manny Ramirez, but I really have a hard time giving them any credence, and I don't think Manny Ramirez would be content to play in Philadelphia in any event.
New York Mets
The Mets fell short again in 2007, despite bringing in the second-best pitcher in baseball, only to get eclipsed by the team that acquired the best pitcher in baseball (I'm passing the torch). The Mets are an old team, but they face a lot of potential changes in 2009, with a large number of free agents: Oliver Perez, Moises Alou, Luis Ayala, Damion Easley, Tony Armas, Orlando Hernandez, Pedro Martinez, Ramon Martinez, Ricardo Rincon, Al Reyes, Trot Nixon, Brady Clark and Matt Wise.
Most likely to return: Oliver Perez was relatively reliable for the Mets, is going to be pretty pricey on the open market and has a questionable Type A status that would cause 15 teams to lose a first round pick to sign an erratic starter. I'd guess that Easley is probable to return as well.
Most likely to leave: Everybody else. The Mets may hold on to Luis Ayala, who they trusted for about a week after acquiring him, but most of the free agents are guys who missed much (or all) of last season or didn't play a meaningful role in 2008.
Prospect on the rise: Daniel Murphy made a significant splash in 2008 as the Mets tried to push their way to the playoffs with a makeshift outfield. He's likely to start in 2009 at either left field or second base. Jon Niese is likely to crash the Mets' rotation, but didn't fare well in his cameo. Fernando Martinez is still on the horizon, but doesn't seem like a major factor in the Mets' hopes for 2009.
Non-tender candidates: For legal reasons, Ambiorix Burgos may get non-tendered, but I'd doubt it, considering what the Mets gave up for him. Not a non-tender, but a release, might be the situation facing Luis Castillo, but, again, considering the Mets' financial commitment, they should probably keep Castillo around in case Murphy doesn't transition to second successfully.
Needs: Corner outfielders, second base, starting pitching and relief pitching. The Mets need everything that's not Johan Santana, Carlos Beltran, David Wright, Jose Reyes, and possibly Carlos Delgado (who sure looked finished until late May) and Ryan Church (who looked solid in RF when he played, which wasn't all that often). They could use a better catching tandem as well, but aren't likely to move there with the glut of needs they already have.
Injuries that figure in 2009: John Maine's shoulder may determine whether the Mets have a solid rotation in 2009. Santana is still dominating, Mike Pelfrey put together a strong season, and Oliver Perez could return as a free agent, giving the Mets a decent trio of starters, but if John Maine can get healthy and stay healthy, the Mets are infinitely more likely to contend for a playoff berth in 2006. Billy Wagner is out for '09 and has likely finished his Mets career.
Free agent ceiling: Simply put, there isn't one. While there are organizational reasons that the Mets would likely not chase C.C. Sabathia and pursue Manny Ramirez or Francisco Rodriguez (read either: the Mets are a poorly run organization or Minaya's renowned bias for Latin players), the Mets have money to spend and will clear $26 million off their books next year just through Orlando Hernandez, Moises Alou, and Pedro Martinez leaving or accepting considerably less money to return.
Florida Marlins
The Marlins have only a few major league free agents (and no real minor league FAs of note): Luis Gonzalez, Mark Hendrickson, Paul LoDuca, and Arthur Rhodes.
Most likely to return: LoDuca is unlikely to have any other suitors, so he may stay afloat with a minor league deal in Florida. I wouldn't hold my breath that any will return.
Most likely to leave: Rhodes was effective enough that he'll have one more year in the majors, but as a free agent who will be paid in real dollars, it seems pretty unlikely that it'd be in Florida.
Prospect on the rise: Cameron Maybin may be destined for the centerfield job this year, a year after most people thought he'd find his way into the Marlins' lineup. He showed he was ready in September and will certainly be a hyped rookie of the year candidate in 2009. Gaby Sanchez is now the heir apparent to the first base job with Jacobs shipped out. Brett Carroll is another hitter on the verge of the majors, but will likely only get a shot if Maybin fails to land a job.
Non-tender candidates: The Marlins will likely move several candidates for arbitration, including Kevin Gregg and Scott Olsen. If they can't find trading partners, I'd say there's about a 30-40% chance they'd non-tender Kevin Gregg, with whom they grew dissatisfied in the latter half of last year. But, this being baseball, where there's perpetually a need for anyone who's saved games with any success (and Gregg was superb until about a week before the All-Star break), the scenario is unlikely to present itself. Gregg's probably bound for Detroit, St. Louis, Cleveland, or even conceivably the NY Mets, Olsen will go to whoever the Marlins feel offers the best return (the Rangers have been mentioned numerous times, but I could see a package from the Indians centered around Kelly Shoppach and a corner outfielder (possibly Franklin Gutierrez) that would brnig back Olsen and Gregg.)
Needs: Catching and relief pitching, possibly another outfielder. Adding Leo Nunez gives the Marlins another young reliever to throw at the wall in the hopes that someone will stick, but it's still a bullpen composed of young and inexperienced relievers like Matt Lindstrom, Joe Nelson, and Renyel Pinto as the grizzled veterans. Adding a David Weathers or Jeremy Affeldt type would be the kind of move that would really make this a dangerous team, but is unlikely. The catching in Florida was a hole in 2008, although John Baker proved a useful Chris Coste-like stopgap who brutalized the Phillies last season. The Marlins have a couple prospects in CF in Maybin and Carroll that should keep them from using Cody Ross or Alfredo Amezaga as an everyday CF, but I wouldn't rule out acquiring another outfielder who could play in the corners.
Injuries that figure in 2009: Anibal Sanchez came back from labrum surgery in 2009, but never showed much effectiveness or durability. His continued recovery is the key to the rotation. Josh Johnson's rapid recovery from Tommy John was impressive, but he needs to maintain his effectiveness. Josh Willingham has been injury prone during his time in the majors, and he will need to stay healthy to keep Cody Ross from having to play left field every day -- which is a best case scenario asssuming that Maybin can hold the CF job.
Free agent ceiling: Casey Blake would be about as highly rated a player as I could envision the Marlins pursuing, and even that's something of a stretch. That said, they did sign Hanley Ramirez to a long-term deal, and Blake would be a useful player in LF, RF, 3B, and 1B for a team that's got question marks at those spots.
Atlanta Braves
The mish-mash of Braves' free agents has a couple hall of famers and an assorted cast of journeymen: Elmer Dessens, Tom Glavine, Mike Hampton, Jorge Julio, Corky Miller, Greg Norton, Will Ohman, John Smoltz, Julian Tavarez
Most likely to return: John Smoltz seems the most likely to return since he's played in Atlanta his entire career. If he returns, I'd believe it'd be to the Braves, since the Tigers aren't likely to make a play for his services a year after finishing last in the AL Central. Will Ohman is a valuable reliever and I'd guess the Braves will make a play to keep him, but he may find more money elsewhere after an 83-appearance season in Atlanta.
Most likely to leave: Dessens would be an obvious choice, but not even rabid Braves fans likely noticed his 4 game stint with the Braves, so my pick is Tavarez, who will probably have to settle for a bottom of the line contract from a bottom-budget team after getting rocked by both right and left-handed batters in 2008. He'll probably muster a minor league contract from a club like the Pirates or Royals who are trying to build bullpens on the cheap, but not much in the way of major league interest.
Prospect on the rise: Tommy Hanson is one of the most talked-about minor league prospects right now, and his name keeps surfacing around Peavy discussions as a player Frank Wren won't deal for Peavy. He is probably a year away, but with Brent Lillibridge and Jordan Schafer losing their footing in 2008, it's hard to see another Brave who's going to make an impact in 2009.
Non-tender candidates: I'm not seeing any.
Needs: Healthy arms and an outfielder with power. For as bad as the Braves were in 2008, they've actually proven to have a good offensive strategy outside of Jeff Francouer. Gregor Blanco hit a lousy .251, but still mustered an OBP of .366. Yunel Escobar batted .288 with an OBP of .366, and the Braves ended up 5th in the majors with an OBP of .354, and their power wasn't dreadful (slg. of .408, 20th in the majors). But for a team with no power, the Braves were astonishingly unable to steal bases (58 in 85 attempts, 28th in the majors). That doesn't lead to run production. The Braves need at least two starters behind Jair Jurrjens, Tim Hudson, and Jorge Campillo.
Injuries that figure in 2009: Smoltz and Glavine may not be able to pitch anywhere in 2009 because of injuries, but if they can, it'd probably be in Atlanta (Glavine has said he wouldn't pitch anywhere else). Chipper Jones was limited for much of last season by shoulder tendinitis, and with his history of injuries, it's hard to imagine it's the last time we've heard of this injury. Unless Kotchman really shows up, Chipper may be playing first base by the end of 2009.
Free agent ceiling: There's rumors floating around that Rafael Furcal may be on the horizon for the Braves. I could see them spending that kind of money, but Furcal would make little sense for a team that's loaded with serviceable/borderline-starter middle infielders like Omar Infante, Martin Prado, Yunel Escobar, and Kelly Johnson. I could see the Braves making a play for Ryan Dempster, Ben Sheets, Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, or Bobby Abreu.
Washington Nationals
The Nationals began their free agency period early by attempting to option a number of players to AAA: Chad Cordero, Pete Orr, Ryan Wagner, and Ryan Langerhans. Odalis Perez and Aaron Boone are the only players listed as major league free agents.
Most likely to return: Odalis Perez may be hard-pressed to find a multi-year deal anywhere else, considering how he performed after signing his deal in Los Angeles. While he could probably find one-year deals
Most likely to leave: Cordero's obviously gone and would make a lot of sense for teams like Cleveland or St. Louis, who need bullpen help, but don't want to pay for Brian Fuentes or Francisco Rodriguez. Cordero's not of the same caliber and has some injury questions, but he's been mostly successful in his career and will probably be available at some point in 2009. He's not a player to depend upon, but he could be a useful player to cushion the blow if closers like Jensen Lewis or Chris Perez falter.
Prospect on the rise: Ross Detwiler is still likely a ways from the Majors after playing last year at A ball, but the Nationals have pushed him into the Majors before (for one appearance in September 2007). He could enter the mix for the rotation and, with Balester, give the Nationals a pair of meaningful prospects. Roger Bernadina is hardly a top-end prospect, but he's got a good shot to take over an outfield spot and lead off for the Nationals in 2009. If he doesn't, DC-area native Justin Maxwell may very well win the job. Neither has much of a chance to produce big numbers in the majors, but this is the best Washington's system has. Luke Montz may get a shot to back up Jesus Flores in 2009, but isn't likely to do much more than Wil Nieves.
Non-tender candidates: The Nationals are cutting ties with Chad Cordero, having already announced their intention to non-tender the team's longest tenured player. As much as they no longer wish to pay Austin Kearns or Wily Mo Pena, they're locked into the contracts now.
Needs: Starting pitching, relief pitching, first base, second base, a corner outfielder who can stay healthy. The saddest thing is that I'm surprised it's this few positions. The Nationals got better than expected production from Cristian Guzman, who's still likely to suffer injuries in 2009 but were snakebit with injuries to Ryan Zimmerman and Lastings Milledge. The pitching cupboard isn't bare with John Lannan and the occasionally effective Colin Balester, but only Lannan's a lock for the 2009 rotation. That's never a good sign.
Injuries that figure in 2009: To be announced. With Cristian Guzman and Austin Kearns penciled into the lineup, it's a matter of time. Nick Johnson is expected to miss 2009 with a hangnail, after missing 2008 with a torn ulnar ligament in his wrist.
Free agent ceiling: Adam Dunn is exactly what Jim Bowden looks for -- a former Cincinnati Red. There's been talk of Dunn joining the Nats since his best friend (Austin Kearns) was traded in '06, and with the apparently tepid response to him in the July trade market and now in the rumor mill, it is completely plausible that he could end up in Washington if he thinks they'll leave him in LF.
Philadelphia Phillies
I'll start with the 2008 World Champions, since I still can't believe that's a description of the Phillies, and because it's the team I'm the major league club I'm most familiar with (through little more than proximity). The Phillies have a few free agents on their roster. Jamie Moyer, Pat Burrell, Scott Eyre, So Taguchi, Tom Gordon, Rudy Seanez, and Taduhito Iguchi are all in a position to leave the club.
Most likely to return: Moyer is a near lock, given that his other real hope would be to return to the Mariners, who really need to get younger and turn their team around. Burrell was given a blow-off with the 2 year, $22 million offer, so although I was confident he'd be back, I no longer feel that the Phillies have a genuine interest in keeping him.
Most likely to leave: Taguchi can't offer the Phillies anything, having failed as a defensive replacement and been replaced by Eric Bruntlett in the regular season and the playoffs. He's probably done as a major leaguer and rumors have already begun that he'll be in Japan next year.
Prospect on the rise: Maybe it's just me, but I would be extremely surprised to see Lou Marson open the season in the minor leagues. He showed a solid bat at Reading (.849 OPS) and it makes sense to get him major league experience while the team still has its core intact, lest you need him to contribute from day one. It's certainly possible that the Phillies put him in AAA in the '09 season and keep Coste at the # 2 spot, and even possible that the Phillies simply carry Coste as a super sub who can fill in at catcher, first base, third base, or the corner outfield spots, but Manuel's not shown a willingness to carry three catchers. The only other prospects I envision seeing in Philadelphia are Jason Donald (Sept. '09 -- earlier if a middle infielder gets injured), Carrasco
Non-tender candidates: Chris Coste. I hope it's not going to happen, but Charlie Manuel made it abundantly clear he favored Ruiz, starting him in every playoff game. With Marson in the wings, a 35-year-old backup catcher is relatively expendable, even if he's a better hitter than most. There may be a trade market for Coste, who would seemingly fit in well with a number of clubs, particularly the Reds, but I feel that if a trade doesn't get done, Coste will probably be non-tendered.
Needs: Pat Burrell? The team needs a right-handed hitting outfielder, though they're unlikely to shell out much for one since they're locked in to a big contract with Geoff Jenkins and still have Matt Stairs under contract for next year. Best case for the Phillies is that Stairs elects to retire, but if he's thinking about it, he's not saying so. That'd free up a roster spot that could be used for a right-handed platoon option to pair with Jenkins, if the Phillies do let Burrell walk. If they fill it from within, they're counting on Greg Golson to develop as a hitter in a hurry.
The Phillies could use a dependable starting pitcher, but have a lot of # 6 starter types and there's always the lingering possibility that Madson gets moved into the rotation. Short of Derek Lowe falling through every crack or some way-below-market deal for an injury prone pitcher like Ben Sheets, it's unlikely the Phillies land another starter to join Kendrick/Happ/Eaton in the mix. Carlos Carrasco is on the horizon, so it probably makes sense to let Happ/Kendrick try to show what they can and give Carrasco a shot at mid-season if the available options aren't there.
Injuries that figure in 2009: The Phillies' bullpen has a lot more options returning because Scott Mathieson and Mike Zagurski both missed the entire 2008 season with injuries. Zagurski gives them the winner of the Scott Eyre-lookalike contest, Mathieson has long been a prospect in the organization, but has been beset by injuries. Pedro Feliz missed time with a balky back in the late season, and that isn't likely an injury we've heard the last from.
Free agent ceiling: The Phillies have made loads of extra money from the playoff run, but aren't likely to be a big player on the free agent market given the arbitration raises that will go to Ryan Howard and others. Their top free agent target would likely be a Pat Burrell/Adam Dunn type in the range of $13-14 million a season, and the Phillies have already shown a reluctance to pay that much. There are rumors that the Phillies are interested in Manny Ramirez, but I really have a hard time giving them any credence, and I don't think Manny Ramirez would be content to play in Philadelphia in any event.
New York Mets
The Mets fell short again in 2007, despite bringing in the second-best pitcher in baseball, only to get eclipsed by the team that acquired the best pitcher in baseball (I'm passing the torch). The Mets are an old team, but they face a lot of potential changes in 2009, with a large number of free agents: Oliver Perez, Moises Alou, Luis Ayala, Damion Easley, Tony Armas, Orlando Hernandez, Pedro Martinez, Ramon Martinez, Ricardo Rincon, Al Reyes, Trot Nixon, Brady Clark and Matt Wise.
Most likely to return: Oliver Perez was relatively reliable for the Mets, is going to be pretty pricey on the open market and has a questionable Type A status that would cause 15 teams to lose a first round pick to sign an erratic starter. I'd guess that Easley is probable to return as well.
Most likely to leave: Everybody else. The Mets may hold on to Luis Ayala, who they trusted for about a week after acquiring him, but most of the free agents are guys who missed much (or all) of last season or didn't play a meaningful role in 2008.
Prospect on the rise: Daniel Murphy made a significant splash in 2008 as the Mets tried to push their way to the playoffs with a makeshift outfield. He's likely to start in 2009 at either left field or second base. Jon Niese is likely to crash the Mets' rotation, but didn't fare well in his cameo. Fernando Martinez is still on the horizon, but doesn't seem like a major factor in the Mets' hopes for 2009.
Non-tender candidates: For legal reasons, Ambiorix Burgos may get non-tendered, but I'd doubt it, considering what the Mets gave up for him. Not a non-tender, but a release, might be the situation facing Luis Castillo, but, again, considering the Mets' financial commitment, they should probably keep Castillo around in case Murphy doesn't transition to second successfully.
Needs: Corner outfielders, second base, starting pitching and relief pitching. The Mets need everything that's not Johan Santana, Carlos Beltran, David Wright, Jose Reyes, and possibly Carlos Delgado (who sure looked finished until late May) and Ryan Church (who looked solid in RF when he played, which wasn't all that often). They could use a better catching tandem as well, but aren't likely to move there with the glut of needs they already have.
Injuries that figure in 2009: John Maine's shoulder may determine whether the Mets have a solid rotation in 2009. Santana is still dominating, Mike Pelfrey put together a strong season, and Oliver Perez could return as a free agent, giving the Mets a decent trio of starters, but if John Maine can get healthy and stay healthy, the Mets are infinitely more likely to contend for a playoff berth in 2006. Billy Wagner is out for '09 and has likely finished his Mets career.
Free agent ceiling: Simply put, there isn't one. While there are organizational reasons that the Mets would likely not chase C.C. Sabathia and pursue Manny Ramirez or Francisco Rodriguez (read either: the Mets are a poorly run organization or Minaya's renowned bias for Latin players), the Mets have money to spend and will clear $26 million off their books next year just through Orlando Hernandez, Moises Alou, and Pedro Martinez leaving or accepting considerably less money to return.
Florida Marlins
The Marlins have only a few major league free agents (and no real minor league FAs of note): Luis Gonzalez, Mark Hendrickson, Paul LoDuca, and Arthur Rhodes.
Most likely to return: LoDuca is unlikely to have any other suitors, so he may stay afloat with a minor league deal in Florida. I wouldn't hold my breath that any will return.
Most likely to leave: Rhodes was effective enough that he'll have one more year in the majors, but as a free agent who will be paid in real dollars, it seems pretty unlikely that it'd be in Florida.
Prospect on the rise: Cameron Maybin may be destined for the centerfield job this year, a year after most people thought he'd find his way into the Marlins' lineup. He showed he was ready in September and will certainly be a hyped rookie of the year candidate in 2009. Gaby Sanchez is now the heir apparent to the first base job with Jacobs shipped out. Brett Carroll is another hitter on the verge of the majors, but will likely only get a shot if Maybin fails to land a job.
Non-tender candidates: The Marlins will likely move several candidates for arbitration, including Kevin Gregg and Scott Olsen. If they can't find trading partners, I'd say there's about a 30-40% chance they'd non-tender Kevin Gregg, with whom they grew dissatisfied in the latter half of last year. But, this being baseball, where there's perpetually a need for anyone who's saved games with any success (and Gregg was superb until about a week before the All-Star break), the scenario is unlikely to present itself. Gregg's probably bound for Detroit, St. Louis, Cleveland, or even conceivably the NY Mets, Olsen will go to whoever the Marlins feel offers the best return (the Rangers have been mentioned numerous times, but I could see a package from the Indians centered around Kelly Shoppach and a corner outfielder (possibly Franklin Gutierrez) that would brnig back Olsen and Gregg.)
Needs: Catching and relief pitching, possibly another outfielder. Adding Leo Nunez gives the Marlins another young reliever to throw at the wall in the hopes that someone will stick, but it's still a bullpen composed of young and inexperienced relievers like Matt Lindstrom, Joe Nelson, and Renyel Pinto as the grizzled veterans. Adding a David Weathers or Jeremy Affeldt type would be the kind of move that would really make this a dangerous team, but is unlikely. The catching in Florida was a hole in 2008, although John Baker proved a useful Chris Coste-like stopgap who brutalized the Phillies last season. The Marlins have a couple prospects in CF in Maybin and Carroll that should keep them from using Cody Ross or Alfredo Amezaga as an everyday CF, but I wouldn't rule out acquiring another outfielder who could play in the corners.
Injuries that figure in 2009: Anibal Sanchez came back from labrum surgery in 2009, but never showed much effectiveness or durability. His continued recovery is the key to the rotation. Josh Johnson's rapid recovery from Tommy John was impressive, but he needs to maintain his effectiveness. Josh Willingham has been injury prone during his time in the majors, and he will need to stay healthy to keep Cody Ross from having to play left field every day -- which is a best case scenario asssuming that Maybin can hold the CF job.
Free agent ceiling: Casey Blake would be about as highly rated a player as I could envision the Marlins pursuing, and even that's something of a stretch. That said, they did sign Hanley Ramirez to a long-term deal, and Blake would be a useful player in LF, RF, 3B, and 1B for a team that's got question marks at those spots.
Atlanta Braves
The mish-mash of Braves' free agents has a couple hall of famers and an assorted cast of journeymen: Elmer Dessens, Tom Glavine, Mike Hampton, Jorge Julio, Corky Miller, Greg Norton, Will Ohman, John Smoltz, Julian Tavarez
Most likely to return: John Smoltz seems the most likely to return since he's played in Atlanta his entire career. If he returns, I'd believe it'd be to the Braves, since the Tigers aren't likely to make a play for his services a year after finishing last in the AL Central. Will Ohman is a valuable reliever and I'd guess the Braves will make a play to keep him, but he may find more money elsewhere after an 83-appearance season in Atlanta.
Most likely to leave: Dessens would be an obvious choice, but not even rabid Braves fans likely noticed his 4 game stint with the Braves, so my pick is Tavarez, who will probably have to settle for a bottom of the line contract from a bottom-budget team after getting rocked by both right and left-handed batters in 2008. He'll probably muster a minor league contract from a club like the Pirates or Royals who are trying to build bullpens on the cheap, but not much in the way of major league interest.
Prospect on the rise: Tommy Hanson is one of the most talked-about minor league prospects right now, and his name keeps surfacing around Peavy discussions as a player Frank Wren won't deal for Peavy. He is probably a year away, but with Brent Lillibridge and Jordan Schafer losing their footing in 2008, it's hard to see another Brave who's going to make an impact in 2009.
Non-tender candidates: I'm not seeing any.
Needs: Healthy arms and an outfielder with power. For as bad as the Braves were in 2008, they've actually proven to have a good offensive strategy outside of Jeff Francouer. Gregor Blanco hit a lousy .251, but still mustered an OBP of .366. Yunel Escobar batted .288 with an OBP of .366, and the Braves ended up 5th in the majors with an OBP of .354, and their power wasn't dreadful (slg. of .408, 20th in the majors). But for a team with no power, the Braves were astonishingly unable to steal bases (58 in 85 attempts, 28th in the majors). That doesn't lead to run production. The Braves need at least two starters behind Jair Jurrjens, Tim Hudson, and Jorge Campillo.
Injuries that figure in 2009: Smoltz and Glavine may not be able to pitch anywhere in 2009 because of injuries, but if they can, it'd probably be in Atlanta (Glavine has said he wouldn't pitch anywhere else). Chipper Jones was limited for much of last season by shoulder tendinitis, and with his history of injuries, it's hard to imagine it's the last time we've heard of this injury. Unless Kotchman really shows up, Chipper may be playing first base by the end of 2009.
Free agent ceiling: There's rumors floating around that Rafael Furcal may be on the horizon for the Braves. I could see them spending that kind of money, but Furcal would make little sense for a team that's loaded with serviceable/borderline-starter middle infielders like Omar Infante, Martin Prado, Yunel Escobar, and Kelly Johnson. I could see the Braves making a play for Ryan Dempster, Ben Sheets, Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, or Bobby Abreu.
Washington Nationals
The Nationals began their free agency period early by attempting to option a number of players to AAA: Chad Cordero, Pete Orr, Ryan Wagner, and Ryan Langerhans. Odalis Perez and Aaron Boone are the only players listed as major league free agents.
Most likely to return: Odalis Perez may be hard-pressed to find a multi-year deal anywhere else, considering how he performed after signing his deal in Los Angeles. While he could probably find one-year deals
Most likely to leave: Cordero's obviously gone and would make a lot of sense for teams like Cleveland or St. Louis, who need bullpen help, but don't want to pay for Brian Fuentes or Francisco Rodriguez. Cordero's not of the same caliber and has some injury questions, but he's been mostly successful in his career and will probably be available at some point in 2009. He's not a player to depend upon, but he could be a useful player to cushion the blow if closers like Jensen Lewis or Chris Perez falter.
Prospect on the rise: Ross Detwiler is still likely a ways from the Majors after playing last year at A ball, but the Nationals have pushed him into the Majors before (for one appearance in September 2007). He could enter the mix for the rotation and, with Balester, give the Nationals a pair of meaningful prospects. Roger Bernadina is hardly a top-end prospect, but he's got a good shot to take over an outfield spot and lead off for the Nationals in 2009. If he doesn't, DC-area native Justin Maxwell may very well win the job. Neither has much of a chance to produce big numbers in the majors, but this is the best Washington's system has. Luke Montz may get a shot to back up Jesus Flores in 2009, but isn't likely to do much more than Wil Nieves.
Non-tender candidates: The Nationals are cutting ties with Chad Cordero, having already announced their intention to non-tender the team's longest tenured player. As much as they no longer wish to pay Austin Kearns or Wily Mo Pena, they're locked into the contracts now.
Needs: Starting pitching, relief pitching, first base, second base, a corner outfielder who can stay healthy. The saddest thing is that I'm surprised it's this few positions. The Nationals got better than expected production from Cristian Guzman, who's still likely to suffer injuries in 2009 but were snakebit with injuries to Ryan Zimmerman and Lastings Milledge. The pitching cupboard isn't bare with John Lannan and the occasionally effective Colin Balester, but only Lannan's a lock for the 2009 rotation. That's never a good sign.
Injuries that figure in 2009: To be announced. With Cristian Guzman and Austin Kearns penciled into the lineup, it's a matter of time. Nick Johnson is expected to miss 2009 with a hangnail, after missing 2008 with a torn ulnar ligament in his wrist.
Free agent ceiling: Adam Dunn is exactly what Jim Bowden looks for -- a former Cincinnati Red. There's been talk of Dunn joining the Nats since his best friend (Austin Kearns) was traded in '06, and with the apparently tepid response to him in the July trade market and now in the rumor mill, it is completely plausible that he could end up in Washington if he thinks they'll leave him in LF.
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