Philadelphia Phillies sign Raul Ibanez to a 3-year, $31.5 million contract.
Pat Burrell was exactly what the Phillies needed in their lineup, a batter who can work counts, hit for power, and swings well against left-handed pitchers. He wasn’t a great defender, but he had a phenomenal arm once he got to balls, catching more than a number of baserunners dead to rights when they simply assumed he could never hobble to the ball in time.
Raul Ibanez is a left-handed batter who hits for less power, draws fewer walks, but makes more contact. He is a similarly dreadful defender in left field, is even older than Pat Burrell and runs only marginally better than Burrell, whose parting moment as a Phillie was an inside-the-park home run in Game 5 of the World Series that Burrell barely turned into a double.
Ibanez, like Chan Ho Park and Jamie Moyer below, are players that Ruben Amaro is in love with based on their 2008 performances. Although Ibanez has been a perpetually solid hitter since he actually cracked an everyday lineup in Kansas City, he doesn’t fit the Phillies’ needs, because aside from the 2008 season (where Ruben Amaro witnessed a .305 against lefties /.288 against right-handers split, he’s never hit left-handed pitching all that well (.268/.293 career numbers)). Ibanez is still likely going to lead to Charlie Manuel using Eric Bruntlett in left field (to the extent he’s not filling in at second base for Chase Utley), so he didn’t resolve the biggest gripe that the Phillies could have with Pat Burrell. Though I’d never have thought it possible, it looks like Ibanez has been just as streaky as Burrell the last two years (for instance, Ibanez put up the following lines:.396/.452/.703 in August 2008; .233/.292/.301 for a woeful OPS of .593 in September 2008; .184/.241/.262 in July 2007; .374/.447/.682 in August 2007). Before that, his numbers fell far more in the .750-.890 range on a monthly basis.
Ibanez is a fine player and although he’s 36, he probably feels younger than Pat Burrell on a daily basis considering Ibanez’s slow rise to the majors and just as slow rise to everyday status in the major leagues. But it’s hard to envision him putting up numbers that match Burrell’s. He’s not going to draw as many walks (admittedly, he’ll strike out considerably less, but with Howard in front of him once Utley returns, this just increases the double play possibilities since Ibanez is much more of a ground ball hitter than Burrell). He’s not a fly ball hitter like Burrell, which means he’s not ideally suited to play in Philadelphia anyway, and he’s ultimately going to prove to be equally expensive. While Amaro could have come up with a way to respectably pass Burrell’s torch, signing an equally costly player with the same deficiencies but less upside was not it.
Philadelphia Phillies sign Jamie Moyer to a 2-year, $18 million contract; Philadelphia Phillies sign Chan Ho Park to a 1 year, $2.5 million contract potentially worth $5 million
If there is a single transaction representing just how out of touch Ruben Amaro is with the 2009 free agent market, well, there’s actually two, and for convenience, I’ve lumped them together.
The Moyer deal represents a matter of loyalty. I’d said all offseason that the Phillies had to re-sign Moyer, he represented so much of their success in 2008 and the market was unlikely to be competitive.
And, indeed, there were no signs that the market was competitive, but Amaro still coughed up an astounding $18 million for a pitcher who will be a month shy of 48 when the contract lapses.
Moyer was bafflingly successful in 2008, putting up a 3.71 ERA, 16-7 record, and a WHIP of 1.33. That said, most of that success was on the road, where Moyer’s ERA was more than a run and a half below his ERA at Citizens Bank Park. It wasn’t merely home runs either (11 allowed at home, 9 on the road), Moyer just allowed more hits (109 in 91 2/3 innings at home; 90 in 104 2/3 innings on the road).
The Phillies can expect a regression to the mean, an ERA somewhere at least half a run higher than 2008 (and even a run and a half wouldn’t be shocking), but they can expect Moyer to last into 5-6 innings in every start that’s not in the playoffs. He won’t walk a ton of batters, he probably won’t give up a ton of home runs (Moyer’s 2004 season stands as one of the great aberrations in history), and he is likely to make 32 starts, even at the age of 47 (he hasn’t missed a start in…at least 7 years). But he’s not going to pitch deep into games and he’s not the kind of guy who can stop a losing streak. And in this market, he was not a guy who is going to get a $9 million contract anywhere else.
Chan Ho Park is 7 years removed from being a competent pitcher. Although moving him to the bullpen has let him scatter his ineffectiveness and pin inherited runs allowed on the pitcher preceding him, Park has shown no real signs of success since he signed his preposterous contract with the rangers.
Like Joe Smith (now of the Indians), Park represents a player whose ERA is truly deceiving. In 2008, he had a 3.40 ERA, but had a WHIP of 1.40, allowed 12 home runs and 7 of the 43 runs he allowed were unearned. Anytime you see a number that high in the unearned runs column, you have to wonder just how unearned they really were, particularly when that’d push his ERA up more than half a run. Park is historically a pitcher who allows a fair number of fly balls, which would not play well in Philadelphia (especially compared to Los Angeles). While 2007 is likely an aberration, 2008 appears just as anomalous, so unless Park took 35 years to learn to keep the ball down, the name on Chan Ho’s jersey will tell you where his pitches will be leaving.
The Phillies have said Park will have a chance to compete for the fifth starter job, but I have to write this off as the same story we heard about Chad Durbin in 2007. If the Phillies want a lousy fifth starter who’s made a name for himself with an unwarranted contract, they already have Adam Eaton. In Park, they have another pitcher to keep Clay Condrey from pitching in meaningful games and insurance against Durbin being overworked again in 2009. But at the price they paid, with incentives that could double the value of the contract, and Park’s age, the Phillies would have been better suited to sit this one out. The Phillies are already among the oldest teams in baseball with Matt Stairs, Jamie Moyer, Raul Ibanez, Methuselah, and Grandma Moses among the players certain to crack the 25-man roster, adding a marginally effective for one year reliever who doesn’t even have the hope of angling for another big contract was not the move to make.
Phillies projected Opening Day lineup, pitching rotation and bullpen:
SS Rollins
CF Victorino
LF Ibanez
1B Howard
RF Werth
3B Feliz/Dobbs
C Ruiz
2B Bruntlett/Donald
Pitcher
With Utley, Ibanez should drop to 5th in the Pat Burrell slot, Werth/Dobbs, Feliz, and Ruiz would drop down.
LHP Hamels
RHP Myers
LHP Moyer
RHP Blanton
LHP Happ/RHP Carrasco/RHP Eaton/RHP Kendrick
RHP Lidge
RHP Madson
LHP Romero
RHP Durbin
LHP Eyre
RHP Park
RHP Condrey
NY Mets Acquire RHP J.J. Putz, RHP Sean Green and OF Jeremy Reed from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for RHP Aaron Heilman, OF Endy Chavez, LHP Jason Vargas, INF Mike Carp, OF Ezequiel Carrera and RHP Maikel Cleto. The Mets also sent RHP Joe Smith to the Cleveland Indians to complete the trade.
The Mets swung a big deal the day they acquired K-Rod that gave them one of the best closers in baseball, and it certainly wasn’t the Rodriguez signing. In exchange for players that the Mets considered expendable (only Heilman being an impressive major league player at any point in his Mets career; Chavez is a decent defender, Smith was overrated), they landed an expensive setup man in J.J. Putz and a once-promising center fielder in Jeremy Reed.
The prospects they lost have some promise but are far from sure things – Carp is still only 22, but hit well in his second run through AA Binghamton, neither Carrera nor Cleto cracked Baseball America’s top 30 list for the Mets last year.
With apologies to C.C. Sabathia, Putz was baseball’s best pitcher in 2007 (or at least the most successful), even if he didn’t warrant the Cy Young, and he was nearly as good in 2006. 2008 was less successful, since Putz missed a chunk of the season with arm injuries and the Mariners floundered to become one of the worst teams in baseball. Still, Putz was respectable, bouncing back from a horrible start to post a 3.88 ERA. What’s more, his 2008 numbers resulted in part from a ludicrously high BABIP of .360 (that said, 2007’s numbers resulted from a .205 BABIP, so the real Putz is somewhere in between there two). In any event, even 2008 J.J. Putz should be closing, not Francisco Rodriguez.
Sean Green has not proven much as a right-handed reliever in the majors the last two years. He doesn’t strike batters out, he walks a fair number, and he couldn’t get lefties out at all in 2008. But, like Putz, his year-by-year numbers are less glaring, so it’s possible he could become a one-inning guy who pitches the 6th or 7th for the Mets.
Jeremy Reed was once projected to win multiple batting titles (thank you, Baseball Weekly), but has now been reveled as a Brian Anderson clone who can’t hit for any power, doesn’t hit for much of an average and isn’t even adept at stealing bases (19 steals in 37 career attempts). He doesn’t hit left-handers at all, and he doesn’t generate much against right-handed pitchers (.275/.330/.392 career against right-handed pitchers). He’ll likely fill the Endy Chavez role.
The deal should be a good one for the Mets, at least until it becomes clear whether Mike Carp can be an everyday first baseman in the Majors (particularly since the Mets will need a first baseman after Delgado’s contract runs out in 2009). Putz is locked down for 2009 with a team option for 2010, Green and Reed are league minimum players for now.
New York Mets acquire Connor Robertson from the Arizona Diamondbacks for Scott Schoeneweis
Schoeneweis became yet another scapegoat for problems that really reflected the incompetence of an entire bullpen. He’s hardly a dynamite reliever, he lacks strikeout punch and walks more than you’d like, but he’s also the kind of pitcher who has the potential to be effective for a long time, because his success isn’t premised on great stuff.
In exchange for Schoeneweis, the Mets landed Connor Robertson, who has a whopping 9 innings of major league experience and is now in his third organization in a span of 363 days. While the organization hopping is a bad sign, Robertson has shown tremendous strikeout potential in the minors, averaging over a strikeout an inning without showing any signs of control problems for much of his career. 2007, however, he walked a batter every two innings, which portends ill for the not-so-young right-hander (he’s 27 and will be 28 by the end of the 2009 season). After moving in leaps and bounds in his first few minor league seasons, Robertson has plateaued as a middling reliever in AAA, putting up ERAs of 4.35 and 5.02 respectively. He’s not likely to give up a lot of home runs and does a good job keeping his fastball down, but has enough trouble with singles and doubles that he’s not likely to be much more than a 12th man in the Mets bullpen in the foreseeable future.
Daniel Cabrera signs a one-year deal with the Washington Nationals
If you were a fan of pitching living along the Beltway and you could have chosen to drive to home games at either Camden Yards or Nationals Ballpark, you likely are no longer with us to read of this signing, having elected suicide rather than either road trip. So you wouldn't be here to shrug your shoulders, knowing that Daniel Cabrera, he of the electric stuff with absolutely no command is moving about 40 miles to the southwest.
Cabrera is no longer a player who projects well, he's worked with some impressive pitching coaches during his run as one of the least competent starters in the game with strikeout stuff. And the real news that is hidden by his lousy season in 2008 was that he didn't even strike batters out. After years of 157 and 166, Cabrera notched only 95 strikeouts in 180 innings. If it was because he was emphasizing control, it didn't show, since he still walked 90 batters in that span -- giving him a pathetic 1.05 K/BB ratio and a K/9 number of 4.75, down 2 1/2 strikeouts from 2007, which was itself down 2 from 2006. Cabrera managed 10 "quality starts" in 2008, but also managed 8 starts with 6 or more earned runs.
So, plummeting K rate, no control, wildly inconsistent...any upside? Not much. He's 27, so it may be that he's just going to hit his stride in 2008, but it'd be truly astonishing, considering that he's not a raw 27 -- he's already made 146 major league starts. He's got three pitches, but he can't locate them. He's never pitched in relief, so it's not clear whether he'd be able to transition to being a setup man. He has been pretty healthy, having started 64 games in the last two seasons, but any pitcher of his size is a risk for back problems as his career drags on.
Nationals Projected rotation:
LHP Lannan
RHP Balester
LHP Olsen
RHP Cabrera
RHP Martis/RHP Hill/RHP Bergmann
Florida Marlins sign Scott Proctor to a one year deal potentially worth $1 million
Apparently finding Joe Nelson too expensive (though he ultimately signed for a whopping $1.3 million), the Marlins signed a potential replacement from the Dodgers for a $750,000 base salary. Proctor was ineffective in 2008, largely because he simply walked too many batters. After showing good control in 2006, when he was overworked to the tune of 102 innings in 83 appearances for the Yankees, Proctor walked 44 in 95 innings in 2007 and then 24 in only 38 2/3 innings last year. With the wildness has come an increase in strikeouts, so it may just be a change in approach now that he’s no longer an everyday pitcher in the bullpen, but more likely the drop in role had to do with the shoddy performance.
There’s a good chance that Proctor won’t ever bounce back, plenty of pitchers have faded after being worked too hard, and two years of 90+ innings is a lot for a reliever these days. Last year he missed extended time with elbow issues in his throwing arm, and was ultimately left off the Dodgers’ playoff roster…which wasn’t exactly dripping with veteran pitchers. Proctor also gave up loads of home runs considering the cavernous park he called home in 2008; every time he took a mound outside of Los Angeles, the ball seemed to find the seats. The good news for the Marlins is that Dolphins Stadium is just about as pitcher-friendly. The bad news is that the Marlins have a schedule involving a shocking 81 road games in 2009.
To the extent he has value left, it comes from his ability to work solid innings rather than only pitch to right-handed batters. The batting average against Proctor over the course of his career is nearly dead even, with lefties batting .248 and right-handed batters batting .247 against him. This gives the Marlins an opportunity to fill out the 7th or 8th inning and gives them an alternative to lefty Leo Nunez and right-handed Logan Kensing, but they can’t consider it a particularly certain solution.
In all, the deal makes sense, at this point, even Gary Majewski is potentially getting $750,000, Proctor certainly will be better than Majewski if he can get his arm healthy. His September was promising, Proctor posted a WHIP of 1.00 and an ERA in 2.57 in his 8 September appearances, but the sample size and the fact that Proctor has always been overvalued by his biggest fan (Joe Torre) will keep him from being a tide-turner in the Marlins’ bullpen.
Showing posts with label free agents. Show all posts
Showing posts with label free agents. Show all posts
Thursday, January 1, 2009
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Teixeira, the Worst GMs in the World, Majewski
We might as well start with the most baffling signing of the day. No one saw it coming and it’s turned the tide of how we look at the 2009 season.
The Phillies sign Gary Majewski to a minor league deal.
Apparently Adam Eaton doesn’t suffice? The Philadelphia Phillies, who have a well-stocked bullpen after re-signing Scott Eyre and adding Rule 5 draftee Robert Mosebach to the mix, are apparently antsy to add another one of the worst pitchers in baseball to their already-elderly minor league system.
Majewski hasn’t been anything but the worst pitcher in baseball for the last two and a half seasons, so what the Phillies are hoping shows up in Clearwater next year is a complete mystery. Excluding errors, 79 of 192 batters who faced Majewski in 2008 reached base for an OBP against of .412. Similarly, in 2007, 49 of 113 batters faced Majewski reached base (.434). In 2006, it was a mere .364 for the combined season, but after he was acquired by the Reds, he became the proverbial gasoline on the fire and the fire itself, sporting a modest WHIP of 2.27.
Taking a look at sabermetric numbers makes it seem like Majewski might be salvageable, since his BABIP in the last three years has been .323, .422, and .391. That said, there are essentially three reasons BABIP can be high – random chance (e.g., bad luck), poor fielders who just don’t get to balls, and a pitcher being hit really hard. I’m laying heavy odds that it’s the third category at issue for Majewski, partly because the BABIP against him should be low since he allowed 6 home runs (which, of course, are not “in play” as far as BABIP is concerned).
Majewski was part of the inaugural USA team for the World Baseball Classic. Let me be the first to suggest he’s not getting invited this year.
The second signing – nearly as baffling.
The Nationals sign Corey Patterson and Jorge Sosa to minor league deals.
It’s official. The two worst GMs in baseball are Ruben Amaro Jr. and Jim Bowden. It’s taken Amaro mere weeks to crack this list, it’ll take a Raul Ibanez MVP year to get him off it (unfortunately, if you should only get your news from this blog, you don’t know the Phillies signed Raul Ibanez – well, they did. It was bad. We’ll get to that in a few days.) It should only take Stan Kasten coming to his senses to remove Bowden from the list and the employment rolls.
Corey Patterson is the ultimate Dusty Baker player – he doesn’t clog the bases, because he never gets on the bases, and he steals bases with reckless abandon (in 2008, the emphasis was on reckless, he got caught stealing 9 times in 23 attempts). The fact that he didn’t even last under Dusty Baker should really tell you plenty. He doesn’t work counts, he doesn’t draw walks, he’s a terrible leadoff hitter, but he hits for some power, flashes tremendous tools, and is good defensively. Since the Nationals already have Ryan Langerhans, in other words, he is completely and utterly useless. But he’s got a contract for $800K waiting for him if he should somehow make the Nationals’ major league club. The good news for the Nationals is that he shouldn’t have much of a shot to do that with big contracts (Wily Mo Pena for $4 million, Austin Kearns for $8 million), acceptable talent (Lastings Milledge, Josh Willingham, and Elijah Dukes), and utility players (Willie Harris) blocking the path. The bad news is that if those things were enough to ward him off, they should have already done so.
Patterson was tremendously terrible last year, posting a .238 ON BASE PERCENTAGE. This number would rank below such luminaries of batting as Bronson Arroyo (.246 OBP), Seth McClung (.263), Aaron Cook (.258), Manny Parra (.255), Tim Redding (.250), and Jason Marquis (.242). In case you were unaware, Mr. Bowden, Jason Marquis is available and you just non-tendered Tim Redding, who offered superior offensive output to Corey Patterson.
The other minor league deal went to living proof of a Leo Mazzone effect – Jorge Sosa – who has had one good major league season. That season was 2005, the only year he was in the Braves organization simultaneously with Leo Mazzone. The next year, Mazzone left for the Orioles, and with him went Sosa’s ability to pitch. Sosa doesn’t have strikeout stuff, doesn’t have great control, but is really just erratic. In 2007, he walked 41 batters in 112 innings; in 2008, he walked 11 in 21. His strikeouts have been in steady decline since 2004, so he’s not likely to be a back-end contributor to the bullpen, but he may figure in the 5th starter competition or in the “who is this year’s Jesus Colome” reality show that will be spring training in Brevard County.
One other minor deal was transacted today, with Mark Teixeira signing with the New York Yankees for a mere 8 years and $180 million.
This one’s not hard to explain. The Yankees have money, they have no real first baseman, and they had an opportunity to take something away from the Red Sox.
Teixeira, I think, is a pretty overrated signing for the amount of money that we’re talking in this deal. He’s still young, but he sacrificed much of his value by moving to first to vacate third base for Hank Blalock a few years ago. He’s an excellent fielder at first base and he’s an excellent hitter, so I’m not criticizing Teixeira, just noting that he’s not really a savior to a franchise (which is why this deal is a huge benefit to the Orioles and Nationals).
Aside from the obvious stats that jump out at you, Tex offers two big upsides – patience and durability. He draws a lot of walks and is becoming more patient at the plate as he’s developed and he has never missed much time with injuries (and had played in 507 straight games until straining a hamstring in 2007). He’s primarily a fly ball hitter, but it’s hard to tell how that will fly in New Yankee Stadium Redux. I’m sure it will not be a major difficulty.
Dave Cameron projects that Teixeira will likely mean an extra 4 wins for the Yankees every season. I think the vital factor isn’t that he means extra wins for the Yankees as much as he means fewer wins for the Red Sox, who will have to hope that David Ortiz can once again become a 1.000+ OPS hitter. Maybe Eric Gagne left some vials behind, because lord knows there’s nothing the least bit suspicious about David Ortiz’s emergence.
I’m not among those who thinks the Teixeira signing makes the Yankees the favorites in the AL East. They still have a profoundly pedestrian outfield and DH – I’d rank Damon/Matsui/Cabrera/Nady among the middle of the pack in outfields – closer to Sizemore/Choo/Francisco/Dellucci than Mantle & Maris, a gaping hole at catcher on days that Posada is out (which may be every day, for all we know), a bullpen with only two components (Marte and Rivera), no minor league talent on the verge of contributing in the event of an injury, aging players like Posada and Rivera who are on their last legs, a woefully deficient defense up the middle in the infield (Jeter can’t make plays to his right, Cano can’t make plays on the baseball diamond), and they’re relying on A.J. Burnett to make all of his starts. They’ll be good. But they’re not exactly shoo-ins.
Nothing has changed in the 8 years of not winning the World Series. Rooting for the Yankees is still like rooting for a terminal illness – it’s never in doubt that they’re going to win, it’s just a matter of how long the baseball collective can stave it off.
Projected Yankees’ lineup:
LF Damon
SS Jeter
1B Texeira
3B Rodriguez
DH Matsui
C Posada
RF Nady
2B Cano
CF Cabrera
The Phillies sign Gary Majewski to a minor league deal.
Apparently Adam Eaton doesn’t suffice? The Philadelphia Phillies, who have a well-stocked bullpen after re-signing Scott Eyre and adding Rule 5 draftee Robert Mosebach to the mix, are apparently antsy to add another one of the worst pitchers in baseball to their already-elderly minor league system.
Majewski hasn’t been anything but the worst pitcher in baseball for the last two and a half seasons, so what the Phillies are hoping shows up in Clearwater next year is a complete mystery. Excluding errors, 79 of 192 batters who faced Majewski in 2008 reached base for an OBP against of .412. Similarly, in 2007, 49 of 113 batters faced Majewski reached base (.434). In 2006, it was a mere .364 for the combined season, but after he was acquired by the Reds, he became the proverbial gasoline on the fire and the fire itself, sporting a modest WHIP of 2.27.
Taking a look at sabermetric numbers makes it seem like Majewski might be salvageable, since his BABIP in the last three years has been .323, .422, and .391. That said, there are essentially three reasons BABIP can be high – random chance (e.g., bad luck), poor fielders who just don’t get to balls, and a pitcher being hit really hard. I’m laying heavy odds that it’s the third category at issue for Majewski, partly because the BABIP against him should be low since he allowed 6 home runs (which, of course, are not “in play” as far as BABIP is concerned).
Majewski was part of the inaugural USA team for the World Baseball Classic. Let me be the first to suggest he’s not getting invited this year.
The second signing – nearly as baffling.
The Nationals sign Corey Patterson and Jorge Sosa to minor league deals.
It’s official. The two worst GMs in baseball are Ruben Amaro Jr. and Jim Bowden. It’s taken Amaro mere weeks to crack this list, it’ll take a Raul Ibanez MVP year to get him off it (unfortunately, if you should only get your news from this blog, you don’t know the Phillies signed Raul Ibanez – well, they did. It was bad. We’ll get to that in a few days.) It should only take Stan Kasten coming to his senses to remove Bowden from the list and the employment rolls.
Corey Patterson is the ultimate Dusty Baker player – he doesn’t clog the bases, because he never gets on the bases, and he steals bases with reckless abandon (in 2008, the emphasis was on reckless, he got caught stealing 9 times in 23 attempts). The fact that he didn’t even last under Dusty Baker should really tell you plenty. He doesn’t work counts, he doesn’t draw walks, he’s a terrible leadoff hitter, but he hits for some power, flashes tremendous tools, and is good defensively. Since the Nationals already have Ryan Langerhans, in other words, he is completely and utterly useless. But he’s got a contract for $800K waiting for him if he should somehow make the Nationals’ major league club. The good news for the Nationals is that he shouldn’t have much of a shot to do that with big contracts (Wily Mo Pena for $4 million, Austin Kearns for $8 million), acceptable talent (Lastings Milledge, Josh Willingham, and Elijah Dukes), and utility players (Willie Harris) blocking the path. The bad news is that if those things were enough to ward him off, they should have already done so.
Patterson was tremendously terrible last year, posting a .238 ON BASE PERCENTAGE. This number would rank below such luminaries of batting as Bronson Arroyo (.246 OBP), Seth McClung (.263), Aaron Cook (.258), Manny Parra (.255), Tim Redding (.250), and Jason Marquis (.242). In case you were unaware, Mr. Bowden, Jason Marquis is available and you just non-tendered Tim Redding, who offered superior offensive output to Corey Patterson.
The other minor league deal went to living proof of a Leo Mazzone effect – Jorge Sosa – who has had one good major league season. That season was 2005, the only year he was in the Braves organization simultaneously with Leo Mazzone. The next year, Mazzone left for the Orioles, and with him went Sosa’s ability to pitch. Sosa doesn’t have strikeout stuff, doesn’t have great control, but is really just erratic. In 2007, he walked 41 batters in 112 innings; in 2008, he walked 11 in 21. His strikeouts have been in steady decline since 2004, so he’s not likely to be a back-end contributor to the bullpen, but he may figure in the 5th starter competition or in the “who is this year’s Jesus Colome” reality show that will be spring training in Brevard County.
One other minor deal was transacted today, with Mark Teixeira signing with the New York Yankees for a mere 8 years and $180 million.
This one’s not hard to explain. The Yankees have money, they have no real first baseman, and they had an opportunity to take something away from the Red Sox.
Teixeira, I think, is a pretty overrated signing for the amount of money that we’re talking in this deal. He’s still young, but he sacrificed much of his value by moving to first to vacate third base for Hank Blalock a few years ago. He’s an excellent fielder at first base and he’s an excellent hitter, so I’m not criticizing Teixeira, just noting that he’s not really a savior to a franchise (which is why this deal is a huge benefit to the Orioles and Nationals).
Aside from the obvious stats that jump out at you, Tex offers two big upsides – patience and durability. He draws a lot of walks and is becoming more patient at the plate as he’s developed and he has never missed much time with injuries (and had played in 507 straight games until straining a hamstring in 2007). He’s primarily a fly ball hitter, but it’s hard to tell how that will fly in New Yankee Stadium Redux. I’m sure it will not be a major difficulty.
Dave Cameron projects that Teixeira will likely mean an extra 4 wins for the Yankees every season. I think the vital factor isn’t that he means extra wins for the Yankees as much as he means fewer wins for the Red Sox, who will have to hope that David Ortiz can once again become a 1.000+ OPS hitter. Maybe Eric Gagne left some vials behind, because lord knows there’s nothing the least bit suspicious about David Ortiz’s emergence.
I’m not among those who thinks the Teixeira signing makes the Yankees the favorites in the AL East. They still have a profoundly pedestrian outfield and DH – I’d rank Damon/Matsui/Cabrera/Nady among the middle of the pack in outfields – closer to Sizemore/Choo/Francisco/Dellucci than Mantle & Maris, a gaping hole at catcher on days that Posada is out (which may be every day, for all we know), a bullpen with only two components (Marte and Rivera), no minor league talent on the verge of contributing in the event of an injury, aging players like Posada and Rivera who are on their last legs, a woefully deficient defense up the middle in the infield (Jeter can’t make plays to his right, Cano can’t make plays on the baseball diamond), and they’re relying on A.J. Burnett to make all of his starts. They’ll be good. But they’re not exactly shoo-ins.
Nothing has changed in the 8 years of not winning the World Series. Rooting for the Yankees is still like rooting for a terminal illness – it’s never in doubt that they’re going to win, it’s just a matter of how long the baseball collective can stave it off.
Projected Yankees’ lineup:
LF Damon
SS Jeter
1B Texeira
3B Rodriguez
DH Matsui
C Posada
RF Nady
2B Cano
CF Cabrera
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
Trades and free agents; K-Rod; Vazquez; Blake; Hernandez; Freel
NY Mets sign Francisco Rodriguez
The Mets signed "K-Rod" to a 3 year, $37 million deal that will, in my estimation, cause them serious regrets by no later than September 2009. This is a very bad contract to hand to a player whose velocity was dropping in 2008, even if he did save 62 games. Keep in mind also that Rodriguez had very few tough saves and didn't fare all that well in converting saves (he blew 7 save opportunities in '08), and that although he's never made a trip to the disabled list before...that and his drop in velocity could just mean he's due for a visit to the elbow surgeon. He costs the Mets loads of money and a first-round pick, though Fuentes would have cost them the first rounder as well.
Most concerning is Rodriguez's decline in strikeout rate. In 2008, his strikeout rate has decreased from 1.34 K/IP in 2006 and 2007 to 1.13 K/IP in 2008. That's a huge dropoff to have in one season, and it's a rate that can be matched by more garden variety closers (last year's free agent suspension of disbelief Francisco Cordero, for instance, mustered 1.11 K/IP in 2008), not just the Brad Lidges of the world. Moreover, he is wild, walking 1/2 a batter per inning pitched (which does put him in Brad Lidge territory -- which in this case, is a bad thing).
The Mets didn't have any heirs apparent to fill the role, but there are a lot of red flags to indicate that Rodriguez is not worth such a substantial investment.
Cincinnati Reds trade Ryan Freel, Justin Turner, and Brandon Waring to the Baltimore Orioles for Ramon Hernandez and more than $1 million.
Dusty Baker has long had the reputation for loving old players. He's got one more now. Ramon Hernandez's contract was a disaster for the Orioles and the Orioles' most promising player is a catcher. So they shipped him off to a team that has a promising young catcher of their own in Ryan Hanigan (though not on par with Wieters, by any means). Hernandez has some power and at least among the Reds is mistaken for being a handler of pitchers (because of his time with Zito, Mulder, and Hudson -- apparently not for the 5.13 ERA the Orioles pitchers mustered in 2008). Unfortunately, he didn't offer much at all since signing with the Orioles and is two seasons removed from warranting any meaningful playing time because of his offense. He will make Dusty Baker happy because he won't clog the bases by drawing pesky walks, but it's a sad day in Cincinnati that he has almost certainly become the default starting option for the Reds over Hanigan, who looked phenomenal during a September cameo in 2008.
Ryan Freel is a player whose play is often called gritty, high-character and clutch solely because he's a white guy -- oh, and he steals bases. He is a relatively useful player at a number of positions, unfortunately for the Orioles, all of those are positions they've essentially filled. He's played extensively in right field, center field (not a good fit for him), second base, and third base (not ideal, though I think he's underrated as a defensive third baseman). He makes a lot of plays that others wouldn't, but it comes at the expense of missing some plays the average player would make. He is a player who literally runs into walls, but he gets injured a lot. The last couple of years, he's shown very poor baserunning instincts, being caught 12 times in 33 steal attempts, and couldn't put anything together at the plate in 2007. 2008 led to him being cast as a center fielder, he didn't stay healthy long, playing in only 48 games. My guess is that Freel will get to spend some time in center field, which could give the Orioles an opportunity to have a speedy leadoff batter but move Roberts into a better run producing spot. If Aubrey Huff will play first, it gives them a lot more potent lineup as well, fitting an extra major league hitter into the fold.
Brandon Waring is a third base prospect with monumental power -- 20 home runs in 68 games in rookie ball in 2007, 20 home runs in a full season at low-A Dayton this year and is likely to have to move from third base because of marginal athleticism. But he strikes out. A lot. 156 strikeouts in 441 at bats marked his run in low A ball, and he offered only 43 walks in comparison, so it wasn't necessarily because he's a patient hitter. He seems to have a similar skill set to the third base prospect the Orioles acquired this time last year -- Mike Costanzo, who offered a profoundly underwhelming season at AAA Norfolk, so perhaps the Orioles are moving on.
Justin Turner is a middle infielder whose high-end projection puts him as a borderline everyday second baseman. He produced a solid season for the Reds' minor league system, slugging 8 home runs in his stint in AA Charleston and putting together a .792 OPS, even though he's regarded as a prospect with no real slugging potential. He makes pretty good contact (.316 average at A, .279 at AA), but doesn't make enough of it (73 strikeouts in 416 at bats).
Orioles projected lineup as of this move:
CF Freel
2B Roberts
RF Markakis
1B Huff*
3B Mora
DH Scott/Montanez
LF Jones
C Wieters*
SS Salazar*
Reds projected lineup as of this move:
LF Dickerson
CF Hopper*
2B Phillips
RF Bruce
1B Votto
3B Encarnacion
C Hernandez/Hanigan
SS Gonzalez/Keppinger
P Harang/Volquez/Arroyo/Cueto/Owings/Maloney/Thompson/Bailey
Chicago White Sox trade Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan to the Atlanta Braves for Brent Lillibridge, Tyler Flowers, Jon Gilmore, and Santos Rodriguez
The White Sox traded a moderately effective starter and a reliever with an odd arm slot for four minor leaguers, one of whom has already underwhelmed at the major league level, one of whom projects to have to move to a new position (DH), and two who are virtually impossible to project because of inexperience.
Javier Vazquez has been only a marginally effective starting pitcher since leaving the Montreal Expos after the 2003 season. He's compiled only one season in that span with an ERA under 4.00, which was also his only season with an ERA+ of better than 100. He is what has now become known as an innings-eater, someone who, despite not being particularly effective, gets to pitch 200 innings and finish with numbers that show a lengthy run of mediocrity ahead. Even the unreliable won-loss record speaks volumes for Vazquez, who has compiled a 63-61 record since 2003 despite pitching on the 2004 Yankees (who won 101 games). Vazquez hasn't experienced a dropoff in strikeouts (where he's still among the league's best starting pitchers), which is a good sign, but in 2008, hits, walks, and, of course, WHIP spiked and home runs allowed stayed at a predictable career median of 25. In a more pitcher-friendly park and the National League, it's quite possible that Vazquez could have a good year, but he's not going to prove to be an ace for the Braves.
Boone Logan is a left-handed pitcher who relies upon deception to get batters out, because of his three-quarters arm slot. Bad news, Boone. It's not working. Against left-handers, he allowed 30 hits and 5 walks in 25 2/3 innings pitched. Not good numbers, leading to a .291 BAA. Against right-handers, they might has well have intentionally walked them -- BAA of .351, 27 hits and 9 walks in 16 2/3 innings, which gives him a WHIP of 2.16 against right-handers. Oh, and he gives up home runs 7 in 42 1/3 innings pitched. That said, he throws left-handed, which on the Braves should guarantee him a spot in the bullpen -- as is, at most he'll have to compete with Eric O'Flaherty, who was so bad the Mariners let him go after 2008.
In exchange, the Braves offered once-promising Brent Lillibridge, the prospect at the core of the Adam LaRoche trade that seems to have hurt both the Braves and the Pirates (though the Braves at least got Mike Gonzalez, they had to suffer through the Scott Thorman half-year before trading their future for Mark Teixeira). Lillibridge did nothing to earn the confidence of the Braves' brass in 2008, sputtering horribly at the major league level and playing even worse at AAA (.220/.294/.344). He's a solid defensive shortstop and may be able to steal a few bases (23 in AAA in 30 attempts), but is probably never going to be projected as a starter after the relapse in 2008. He's now plugged behind Alexei Ramirez in the White Sox's plans.
The most respected player in the deal for the White Sox is catcher/first baseman Tyler Flowers, who is weak defensively behind the plate and projects elsewhere, but can crush the ball -- 17 home runs at Myrtle Beach in the homer-cursed Carolina League (in comparison, the Wilmington Blue Rocks hit 61 home runs for the SEASON). Flowers really made his name in the Arizona Fall League where he hit 12 home runs in 75 at bats and posted a modest OPS of 1.433. He tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs when he first entered professional baseball, so he'll be watched closely as he progresses through the White Sox system, but he may be the replacement for Jim Thome in 2010 (assuming the Sox don't trade Thome this season). The bad news is that upon hearing about the trade, he relished the idea of playing DH.
Santos Rodriguez has only 26 games of professional experience but has shown the ability to strike out hitters (45 Ks in 29 IP in 2008 at the Gulf Coast League). He has little control at this point (13 BB in 2008), but is also only 20 years old.
Jon Gilmore is a 20-year-old third base prospect who figured in the lower-echelons of prospects for the Braves last year because of his projected power. After two seasons, it remains projected, with Gilmore notching only 4 home runs in 360 at bats split between rookie and low A ball in 2008. He was a first round sandwich pick for the Braves in 2007 out of high school, but hasn't shown much in the way of polish in his early going (.291/.313/.379 career thus far).
St. Louis Cardinals trade relief pitcher Mark Worrell and a PTBNL to the San Diego Padres for Khalil Greene
The Padres are in full on fire sale mode here. Although they don't have a shortstop in their organization (perhaps they should have drafted one #1 overall a few years ago, as opposed to Matt Bush...who is now a pitcher), they dealt Khalil Greene, who was unjustifiably expensive after a disastrous 2008. All the Cardinals gave up was an aging relief pitching prospect who relies on a submarine motion to retire batters and fared poorly at the Major League level in extremely limited activity.
The Cardinals aren't guaranteed a win on this deal, Khalil Greene has been overrated from day one, but thus far the Cardinals dealt a player who was unhappy with their organization (Mark Worrell) and in whom they apparently didn't have much confidence, having removed him from the closer role in the minors on numerous occasions. They only gave him a brief stint in 2008 in the Majors and moved him quickly, so his griping about the organization may not be entirely baseless. Worrell had a substantial jump in his walk rate in his repeat run through AAA, though he continued to hone his ability to punch out hitters (80 K in 58 2/3 IP) and improved his ERA by nearly a run. He's 25, so he's nearing the point where he needs to stick in the majors, but he should get that opportunity in San Diego, where Heath Bell, Cla Meredith, Mike Adams, and Justin Hampson are going to have to fill the void of Trevor Hoffman.
So the upside for the Cardinals is that they have a shortstop who should hit at least 15 home runs and probably more since he's rescued from Petco Park. The downside is that the shortstop who hits those 15 home runs will be Khalil Greene, who's seen plenty of pitches he didn't like, but few at which he wouldn't swing. If you're a player who hits 27 home runs and you finish with an OPS+ of 100...you are not a good player. And that was Greene in one of his peak years (2007). Yes, his batting average should improve outside of Petco, where he was an abomination (.225/.289/.369 career), but he's still a +40 OBP kind of guy (meaning his OBP will only be about 40 points higher than his average -- only the truly impatient players (Pedro Feliz, anyone?) in the game reach this kind of infamy. And if you know you're hitting .215...why are you swinging?
Greene is an above-average defensive shortstop, he'll be a better lineup presence than Cesar Izturis was, if only because he might hit for some power, but he's a number 7/8 (and in LaRussa's sick world, 9) hitter. Expecting anything more than that is folly.
Verdict: The Cardinals could certainly do better, I have little confidence in Khalil Greene. But the jury's out until that player to be named has been identified.
Cardinals projected lineup right now:
LF Schumacker
CF Ankiel
1B Pujols
RF Ludwick
3B Glaus
C Molina
SS Greene
P Wainwright/Lohse/Wellemeyer/Pineiro/Carpenter
2B Miles/Ryan*
Detroit Tigers trade two minor leaguers to the Texas Rangers for Gerald Laird
Gerald Laird had been getting mentioned in trades for years now, it was inevitable that he would get moved at some point. The Tigers needed catching badly and were willing to overpay for a very middling catcher, clearly the least intriguing of the four the Rangers had to offer, albeit one of only two who project as good defensive catchers (the other being Taylor Teagarden). Laird had a decent enough season for a catcher offensively in 2008, but is one year removed from a sub-.290 OBP season -- one of two in his very brief major league career (in only four seasons with more than 130 AB). Those numbers also came in a park that turns hitters into juggernauts, as opposed to the park he's headed to, which will be considerably less friendly to his gap power.
In order to get Gerald Laird, the Tigers had to surrender two minor league pitching prospects. That's astonishing, considering that 1) the Rangers were in a bind as far as moving at least one catcher in a trade, 2) Gerald Laird isn't very good, and 3) the Tigers are not in any position to contend. The Tigers dealt right-handed pitcher Guillermo Moscoso and 17-year-old prospect Carlos Melo in order to land Laird. Melo apparently has electric stuff for a 17-year-old, but he is 17, so he's nearly impossible to project. Moscoso is similarly hard to get a read on, largely because he's never stayed healthy long enough to make an impact (he didn't show up in the prospect poor Tigers' top 30 prospects in 2008). He pitched only 86 2/3 innings in 2008, which was only 4 innings off his professional career high. But he has been superb when he has been on the mound, compiling a 2.80 career ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and more than a strikeout an inning in his trips through R/A/AA, while walking only about 2.25 batters per nine innings pitched.
Verdict: the Rangers win, because they had nothing to lose in dealing Laird.
Los Angeles Dodgers sign free agent third baseman Casey Blake for 3 years, $17.5 million
The Indians and Twins left this bidding pretty early, so the Dodgers were basically bidding against themselves. Blake benefited from a very weak market at third base.
He's a serviceable third baseman, he makes most of the plays he should, he won't make many beyond that. From what I've seen of him (a fair amount), he strikes me as a profoundly average defender. His range factor/9 for his career is 2.69 compared to a league average of 2.65. His zone rating of .768 isn't great, but it's not awful -- nor even the worst in the division (.751 for Mark Reynolds, .787 for Garret Atkins, .768 for Kevin Kouzmanoff).
Signing Blake makes some sense for the Dodgers, but since they had Blake DeWitt already, there may have been greater value in pursuing a second baseman instead. The real winner here is Casey Blake's agent, who deserves a lot of credit for getting a three year deal for an aging player that's basically league average.
Dodgers projected lineup right now:
LF Pierre
CF Kemp
C Martin
RF Ethier
1B Loney
3B Blake
2B DeWitt
SS Hu*
P Billingsley/Kuroda/Kershaw/McDonald/Schmidt*
*The asterisks denote places where I believe a move will yet be made -- based on the position, not the player. For instance, 1B Aubrey Huff* for the Orioles gets an asterisk not because I expect Huff will be traded, but because I think the Orioles will acquire a first baseman and Huff will play DH.
The Mets signed "K-Rod" to a 3 year, $37 million deal that will, in my estimation, cause them serious regrets by no later than September 2009. This is a very bad contract to hand to a player whose velocity was dropping in 2008, even if he did save 62 games. Keep in mind also that Rodriguez had very few tough saves and didn't fare all that well in converting saves (he blew 7 save opportunities in '08), and that although he's never made a trip to the disabled list before...that and his drop in velocity could just mean he's due for a visit to the elbow surgeon. He costs the Mets loads of money and a first-round pick, though Fuentes would have cost them the first rounder as well.
Most concerning is Rodriguez's decline in strikeout rate. In 2008, his strikeout rate has decreased from 1.34 K/IP in 2006 and 2007 to 1.13 K/IP in 2008. That's a huge dropoff to have in one season, and it's a rate that can be matched by more garden variety closers (last year's free agent suspension of disbelief Francisco Cordero, for instance, mustered 1.11 K/IP in 2008), not just the Brad Lidges of the world. Moreover, he is wild, walking 1/2 a batter per inning pitched (which does put him in Brad Lidge territory -- which in this case, is a bad thing).
The Mets didn't have any heirs apparent to fill the role, but there are a lot of red flags to indicate that Rodriguez is not worth such a substantial investment.
Cincinnati Reds trade Ryan Freel, Justin Turner, and Brandon Waring to the Baltimore Orioles for Ramon Hernandez and more than $1 million.
Dusty Baker has long had the reputation for loving old players. He's got one more now. Ramon Hernandez's contract was a disaster for the Orioles and the Orioles' most promising player is a catcher. So they shipped him off to a team that has a promising young catcher of their own in Ryan Hanigan (though not on par with Wieters, by any means). Hernandez has some power and at least among the Reds is mistaken for being a handler of pitchers (because of his time with Zito, Mulder, and Hudson -- apparently not for the 5.13 ERA the Orioles pitchers mustered in 2008). Unfortunately, he didn't offer much at all since signing with the Orioles and is two seasons removed from warranting any meaningful playing time because of his offense. He will make Dusty Baker happy because he won't clog the bases by drawing pesky walks, but it's a sad day in Cincinnati that he has almost certainly become the default starting option for the Reds over Hanigan, who looked phenomenal during a September cameo in 2008.
Ryan Freel is a player whose play is often called gritty, high-character and clutch solely because he's a white guy -- oh, and he steals bases. He is a relatively useful player at a number of positions, unfortunately for the Orioles, all of those are positions they've essentially filled. He's played extensively in right field, center field (not a good fit for him), second base, and third base (not ideal, though I think he's underrated as a defensive third baseman). He makes a lot of plays that others wouldn't, but it comes at the expense of missing some plays the average player would make. He is a player who literally runs into walls, but he gets injured a lot. The last couple of years, he's shown very poor baserunning instincts, being caught 12 times in 33 steal attempts, and couldn't put anything together at the plate in 2007. 2008 led to him being cast as a center fielder, he didn't stay healthy long, playing in only 48 games. My guess is that Freel will get to spend some time in center field, which could give the Orioles an opportunity to have a speedy leadoff batter but move Roberts into a better run producing spot. If Aubrey Huff will play first, it gives them a lot more potent lineup as well, fitting an extra major league hitter into the fold.
Brandon Waring is a third base prospect with monumental power -- 20 home runs in 68 games in rookie ball in 2007, 20 home runs in a full season at low-A Dayton this year and is likely to have to move from third base because of marginal athleticism. But he strikes out. A lot. 156 strikeouts in 441 at bats marked his run in low A ball, and he offered only 43 walks in comparison, so it wasn't necessarily because he's a patient hitter. He seems to have a similar skill set to the third base prospect the Orioles acquired this time last year -- Mike Costanzo, who offered a profoundly underwhelming season at AAA Norfolk, so perhaps the Orioles are moving on.
Justin Turner is a middle infielder whose high-end projection puts him as a borderline everyday second baseman. He produced a solid season for the Reds' minor league system, slugging 8 home runs in his stint in AA Charleston and putting together a .792 OPS, even though he's regarded as a prospect with no real slugging potential. He makes pretty good contact (.316 average at A, .279 at AA), but doesn't make enough of it (73 strikeouts in 416 at bats).
Orioles projected lineup as of this move:
CF Freel
2B Roberts
RF Markakis
1B Huff*
3B Mora
DH Scott/Montanez
LF Jones
C Wieters*
SS Salazar*
Reds projected lineup as of this move:
LF Dickerson
CF Hopper*
2B Phillips
RF Bruce
1B Votto
3B Encarnacion
C Hernandez/Hanigan
SS Gonzalez/Keppinger
P Harang/Volquez/Arroyo/Cueto/Owings/Maloney/Thompson/Bailey
Chicago White Sox trade Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan to the Atlanta Braves for Brent Lillibridge, Tyler Flowers, Jon Gilmore, and Santos Rodriguez
The White Sox traded a moderately effective starter and a reliever with an odd arm slot for four minor leaguers, one of whom has already underwhelmed at the major league level, one of whom projects to have to move to a new position (DH), and two who are virtually impossible to project because of inexperience.
Javier Vazquez has been only a marginally effective starting pitcher since leaving the Montreal Expos after the 2003 season. He's compiled only one season in that span with an ERA under 4.00, which was also his only season with an ERA+ of better than 100. He is what has now become known as an innings-eater, someone who, despite not being particularly effective, gets to pitch 200 innings and finish with numbers that show a lengthy run of mediocrity ahead. Even the unreliable won-loss record speaks volumes for Vazquez, who has compiled a 63-61 record since 2003 despite pitching on the 2004 Yankees (who won 101 games). Vazquez hasn't experienced a dropoff in strikeouts (where he's still among the league's best starting pitchers), which is a good sign, but in 2008, hits, walks, and, of course, WHIP spiked and home runs allowed stayed at a predictable career median of 25. In a more pitcher-friendly park and the National League, it's quite possible that Vazquez could have a good year, but he's not going to prove to be an ace for the Braves.
Boone Logan is a left-handed pitcher who relies upon deception to get batters out, because of his three-quarters arm slot. Bad news, Boone. It's not working. Against left-handers, he allowed 30 hits and 5 walks in 25 2/3 innings pitched. Not good numbers, leading to a .291 BAA. Against right-handers, they might has well have intentionally walked them -- BAA of .351, 27 hits and 9 walks in 16 2/3 innings, which gives him a WHIP of 2.16 against right-handers. Oh, and he gives up home runs 7 in 42 1/3 innings pitched. That said, he throws left-handed, which on the Braves should guarantee him a spot in the bullpen -- as is, at most he'll have to compete with Eric O'Flaherty, who was so bad the Mariners let him go after 2008.
In exchange, the Braves offered once-promising Brent Lillibridge, the prospect at the core of the Adam LaRoche trade that seems to have hurt both the Braves and the Pirates (though the Braves at least got Mike Gonzalez, they had to suffer through the Scott Thorman half-year before trading their future for Mark Teixeira). Lillibridge did nothing to earn the confidence of the Braves' brass in 2008, sputtering horribly at the major league level and playing even worse at AAA (.220/.294/.344). He's a solid defensive shortstop and may be able to steal a few bases (23 in AAA in 30 attempts), but is probably never going to be projected as a starter after the relapse in 2008. He's now plugged behind Alexei Ramirez in the White Sox's plans.
The most respected player in the deal for the White Sox is catcher/first baseman Tyler Flowers, who is weak defensively behind the plate and projects elsewhere, but can crush the ball -- 17 home runs at Myrtle Beach in the homer-cursed Carolina League (in comparison, the Wilmington Blue Rocks hit 61 home runs for the SEASON). Flowers really made his name in the Arizona Fall League where he hit 12 home runs in 75 at bats and posted a modest OPS of 1.433. He tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs when he first entered professional baseball, so he'll be watched closely as he progresses through the White Sox system, but he may be the replacement for Jim Thome in 2010 (assuming the Sox don't trade Thome this season). The bad news is that upon hearing about the trade, he relished the idea of playing DH.
Santos Rodriguez has only 26 games of professional experience but has shown the ability to strike out hitters (45 Ks in 29 IP in 2008 at the Gulf Coast League). He has little control at this point (13 BB in 2008), but is also only 20 years old.
Jon Gilmore is a 20-year-old third base prospect who figured in the lower-echelons of prospects for the Braves last year because of his projected power. After two seasons, it remains projected, with Gilmore notching only 4 home runs in 360 at bats split between rookie and low A ball in 2008. He was a first round sandwich pick for the Braves in 2007 out of high school, but hasn't shown much in the way of polish in his early going (.291/.313/.379 career thus far).
St. Louis Cardinals trade relief pitcher Mark Worrell and a PTBNL to the San Diego Padres for Khalil Greene
The Padres are in full on fire sale mode here. Although they don't have a shortstop in their organization (perhaps they should have drafted one #1 overall a few years ago, as opposed to Matt Bush...who is now a pitcher), they dealt Khalil Greene, who was unjustifiably expensive after a disastrous 2008. All the Cardinals gave up was an aging relief pitching prospect who relies on a submarine motion to retire batters and fared poorly at the Major League level in extremely limited activity.
The Cardinals aren't guaranteed a win on this deal, Khalil Greene has been overrated from day one, but thus far the Cardinals dealt a player who was unhappy with their organization (Mark Worrell) and in whom they apparently didn't have much confidence, having removed him from the closer role in the minors on numerous occasions. They only gave him a brief stint in 2008 in the Majors and moved him quickly, so his griping about the organization may not be entirely baseless. Worrell had a substantial jump in his walk rate in his repeat run through AAA, though he continued to hone his ability to punch out hitters (80 K in 58 2/3 IP) and improved his ERA by nearly a run. He's 25, so he's nearing the point where he needs to stick in the majors, but he should get that opportunity in San Diego, where Heath Bell, Cla Meredith, Mike Adams, and Justin Hampson are going to have to fill the void of Trevor Hoffman.
So the upside for the Cardinals is that they have a shortstop who should hit at least 15 home runs and probably more since he's rescued from Petco Park. The downside is that the shortstop who hits those 15 home runs will be Khalil Greene, who's seen plenty of pitches he didn't like, but few at which he wouldn't swing. If you're a player who hits 27 home runs and you finish with an OPS+ of 100...you are not a good player. And that was Greene in one of his peak years (2007). Yes, his batting average should improve outside of Petco, where he was an abomination (.225/.289/.369 career), but he's still a +40 OBP kind of guy (meaning his OBP will only be about 40 points higher than his average -- only the truly impatient players (Pedro Feliz, anyone?) in the game reach this kind of infamy. And if you know you're hitting .215...why are you swinging?
Greene is an above-average defensive shortstop, he'll be a better lineup presence than Cesar Izturis was, if only because he might hit for some power, but he's a number 7/8 (and in LaRussa's sick world, 9) hitter. Expecting anything more than that is folly.
Verdict: The Cardinals could certainly do better, I have little confidence in Khalil Greene. But the jury's out until that player to be named has been identified.
Cardinals projected lineup right now:
LF Schumacker
CF Ankiel
1B Pujols
RF Ludwick
3B Glaus
C Molina
SS Greene
P Wainwright/Lohse/Wellemeyer/Pineiro/Carpenter
2B Miles/Ryan*
Detroit Tigers trade two minor leaguers to the Texas Rangers for Gerald Laird
Gerald Laird had been getting mentioned in trades for years now, it was inevitable that he would get moved at some point. The Tigers needed catching badly and were willing to overpay for a very middling catcher, clearly the least intriguing of the four the Rangers had to offer, albeit one of only two who project as good defensive catchers (the other being Taylor Teagarden). Laird had a decent enough season for a catcher offensively in 2008, but is one year removed from a sub-.290 OBP season -- one of two in his very brief major league career (in only four seasons with more than 130 AB). Those numbers also came in a park that turns hitters into juggernauts, as opposed to the park he's headed to, which will be considerably less friendly to his gap power.
In order to get Gerald Laird, the Tigers had to surrender two minor league pitching prospects. That's astonishing, considering that 1) the Rangers were in a bind as far as moving at least one catcher in a trade, 2) Gerald Laird isn't very good, and 3) the Tigers are not in any position to contend. The Tigers dealt right-handed pitcher Guillermo Moscoso and 17-year-old prospect Carlos Melo in order to land Laird. Melo apparently has electric stuff for a 17-year-old, but he is 17, so he's nearly impossible to project. Moscoso is similarly hard to get a read on, largely because he's never stayed healthy long enough to make an impact (he didn't show up in the prospect poor Tigers' top 30 prospects in 2008). He pitched only 86 2/3 innings in 2008, which was only 4 innings off his professional career high. But he has been superb when he has been on the mound, compiling a 2.80 career ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and more than a strikeout an inning in his trips through R/A/AA, while walking only about 2.25 batters per nine innings pitched.
Verdict: the Rangers win, because they had nothing to lose in dealing Laird.
Los Angeles Dodgers sign free agent third baseman Casey Blake for 3 years, $17.5 million
The Indians and Twins left this bidding pretty early, so the Dodgers were basically bidding against themselves. Blake benefited from a very weak market at third base.
He's a serviceable third baseman, he makes most of the plays he should, he won't make many beyond that. From what I've seen of him (a fair amount), he strikes me as a profoundly average defender. His range factor/9 for his career is 2.69 compared to a league average of 2.65. His zone rating of .768 isn't great, but it's not awful -- nor even the worst in the division (.751 for Mark Reynolds, .787 for Garret Atkins, .768 for Kevin Kouzmanoff).
Signing Blake makes some sense for the Dodgers, but since they had Blake DeWitt already, there may have been greater value in pursuing a second baseman instead. The real winner here is Casey Blake's agent, who deserves a lot of credit for getting a three year deal for an aging player that's basically league average.
Dodgers projected lineup right now:
LF Pierre
CF Kemp
C Martin
RF Ethier
1B Loney
3B Blake
2B DeWitt
SS Hu*
P Billingsley/Kuroda/Kershaw/McDonald/Schmidt*
*The asterisks denote places where I believe a move will yet be made -- based on the position, not the player. For instance, 1B Aubrey Huff* for the Orioles gets an asterisk not because I expect Huff will be traded, but because I think the Orioles will acquire a first baseman and Huff will play DH.
Monday, December 8, 2008
Free agent moves: Renteria, Howry, Branyan, Everett...seriously
Giants signed Edgar Renteria to a 2 year, $18.5 million deal
The Giants signed Edgar Renteria, continuing to build Brian Sabean's bridge to the past. Next week, I'm laying even odds that the Giants sign John McCain -- though in defense of that move, McCain would probably be a more adequate offensive first baseman than Travis Ishikawa and all indications are that McCain can be bought for considerably less than Edgar Renteria. Zing.
Renteria is a serviceable player who has rarely been more than that and regressed defensively to be considerably below average in 2008. Renteria's not going to add signicant home run pop to the lineup, but adds another Aaron Roward, Fred Lewis 15-20 home-run ceiling guy to the lineup. He's likely to be an offensive upgrade from Emmanuel Burriss, sure, but he's not worth the alarming price they paid for a shortstop that no one seemed too gung ho on adding. Renteria is and almost always has been a league average guy. Since he plays shortstop, league average isn't a bad thing, but he adds only marginally more than a Mark Grudzialanek (if any). Renteria has fared better in the National League, but don't get confused into thinking 2007 shows what he'll do, 2007 showed only what BABIP can do when all luck breaks in someone's favor, because Renteria's was nearly .400 in 2007. When it returned to league average in 2008, so did he.
Renteria's speed has decayed as well, limiting him to 6 steals in 2008, and his extra base potential was negligible, mustering only 22 doubles and 2 triples in cavernous Comerica (National) Park. So despite the Giants having a dearth of power (Bengie Molina led the team with 16 home runs last year, the team mustered a whopping .382 SLG), it's not clear that Renteria is going to add much there. Certainly $9.25 million a year could have bought more on this market -- rather than a guy who slugged the same as Nick Punto, but with a considerably lower OBP and worse glove. Punto (.284/.344/.382) and Grudzialanek (.299/.345/.399) could probably have both been had for $9.25 million, and even if Renteria's 2008 was an aberration, it's unlikely it was much of one.
Giants sign Bobby Howry to a 1 year, $2.75 million contract
The Giants signed Bobby Howry, a move that helps add unnecessary age to the Giants' roster, but adds a potentially serviceable right-handed reliever. At 2.75 million, he's a reasonable gamble, but it's hard to see him being a great pitcher in 2008. Howry is 35 now, and has been worked hard over his last few seasons (73, 76 2/3, 81 1/3, 70 2/3) for a reliever. Howry hasn't seen an uptick in his walk rate that would presage decline, but his strikeouts were down in 2008 after being up in 2006 and 2007. And a 1.46 WHIP and 90 hits in 70 2/3 innings don't encourage anyone except opposing hitters.
Atlanta signs C David Ross to a two-year, $3 million contract
Huh? $3 million for a backup catcher to Brian McCann? 2 years to David Ross? Frank Wren has lost his mind. If you want to find out how John Schuerholz got so much from the Braves for so long, it was by avoiding throwing real money at the players who were there to not play. His heir apparent hasn't learned this. Instead of going with Clint Sammons, Brayan Pena, or any of the other backup catchers that have dotted a 40-man roster in recent years, the Braves sign a catcher to a $3 million deal when it's not certain he could have gotten a major league contract elsewhere. He lost his job in Cincinnati to Paul Bako and Javier Valentin in the last two years. Moreover, Ross has enough power that he might be a useful pinch hitter -- but you can't use him as a pinch hitter unless you're carrying three catchers.
I'm of the opinion that backup catcher is one of the places where a low-budget team can and should cut costs. (I originally typed that as costes...which I think is a Freudian slip, since I think another great option for the Braves is to wait until March and pick up Chris Coste after the Phillies cut him loose to make room for Lou Marson.) David Ross is a waste of money for a team that's a long way from filling all their holes. Billy Traber signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox for considerably less, and would have filled a far greater need for the Braves -- someone who might be able to pitch.
Seattle Mariners sign Russell Branyan to a one year, $1.4 million contract
The Mariners first move in the offseason was to sign Russell Branyan. No need to print those playoff tickets now, Mariners fans. Branyan is king of the small sample size -- he can make for one pretty stat sheet so long as he doesn't face right-handed pitchers, so long as you don't look at defensive statistics and so long as you don't give random chance an opportunity to start evening things out. He has prodigious power, he draws a good number of walks, and he strikes out nearly every other time he's at the plate. In 2000 career at bats, he's struck out 797 times. Branyan has had three years of below average BABIP, but he's also the kind of player you don't expect to fare well in BABIP because if he puts it in play (remember: BABIP excludes home runs), it's an out. He's a three true outcomes hitter -- home runs, walks, strikeouts.
Branyan will probably see a lot of time at 1B and DH for the Mariners, who are currently slated to fill those slots with Bryan LaHair and...oh lord. It's astonishing to think that Erik Bedard was on the Mariners' radar a year ago and they were supposed to contend for the AL West title. Look what a load of lousy free agent signings (Richie Sexson, Jarrod Washburn, Carlos Silva) and idiotic trades with the Cleveland Indians for platoon players (Asdrubal Cabrera for Eduardo Perez; Shin-Soo Choo for Ben Broussard) can do to an organization. Then subtract top-level prospects like Chris Tillman and Adam Jones and this team is stripped down to Ichiro, Adrian Beltre, and a middle infield that had a COMBINED +46 OBP. (Betancourt adding 21 points, Lopez a much more patient 25). To emphasize how awful that combined +46 OBP is...keep in mind, through no virtue of "patience", Chase Utley added 38 points to his OBP by being HIT WITH PITCHES. Lean in next year, Yuniesky/Jose.
Mariners projected lineup as of this move:
RF Suzuki
CF Reed
2B Lopez
3B Beltre
DH Branyan/Johjima (yeah, seriously)
LF Balantien
C Clement
1B LaHair
SS Betancourt
Detroit Tigers sign Adam Everett to a one year, $1 million deal
So much for the lineup of nine intimidating bats, the Tigers are now down to signing punchless defensive wizards to fill the holes in their lineup. Adam Everett will split time with Ramon Santiago at shortstop, neither of them will hit the ball. Everett can field (range factor about 1/2 a play per nine innings over league average for his career), but can't hit, hit for power, draw a whole lot of walks, or steal many bases. If Everett could summon his 2004 numbers (.273/.317/.385) and muster an OPS over .700, he might be worth playing even on a half-decent team. It's not likely to happen. Even on a defense-first team in Minnesota last year, they decided there was more to life than fielding grounders and he lost his job to the mighty Nick Punto/Brendan Harris combination that will some day be remembered alongside Honus Wagner as shortstops who did not appear on tobacco companies' baseball cards (Wagner because he insisted to be removed, Punto and Harris because tobacco sales are lagging enough as is).
Tigers projected lineup as of this move:
CF Granderson
2B Polanco
LF Guillen
RF Ordonez
1B Cabrera
DH Sheffield
C Laird
3B Inge
SS Everett
Boston Red Sox sign Junichi Tazawa
I don't know anything about Tazawa, I know that he's not major league ready, considering the contract he landed from the Red Sox. Japanese pitchers are spotty at best and tend to burn out quickly. Hideki Irabu, Hideo Nomo, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kasuhiro Sasaki, Tomo Ohka, Masahide Kobayashi, and Kei Igawa are all names that were supposed to be impacts, but aside from Daisuke (who is fine as a 6-inning pitcher, but hasn't done anything beyond that), the others had fleeting impacts and burned out quickly. He'll have a couple mentors in Matsuzaka and Hideki Okajima, but will not probably play a major role for this team this year.
Milwaukee Brewers sign Jorge Julio
Jorge Julio is a player that's never worth signing in November, but can prove useful if you're the second team in a season to end up with him. For three straight years, he's been ineffective with the team he began the year with (Mets, Marlins, Indians) and found himself released or traded to a new team (Diamondbacks, Rockies, Braves). Then he puts up better numbers with his new team and finds himself a free agent yet again. After six seasons of 60+ appearances, 2008 brought him a bad run with the Indians as a mop-up man who never found himself worthy of anything better and then sent him to the out-of-contention Braves where he dazzled with a 0.73 ERA without really earning it -- his WHIP (1.38) was nearly twice his ERA. Julio walks a ton of batters with a career rate of nearly .5 BB/IP that has increased as his career has continued. But he's only two seasons removed from a year where he struck out 88 batters in 67 IP, so it's not hard to see why teams keep considering him a minor option. For a team as bullpen-needy as the Brewers, it makes sense. He is another failed closer to dump into the closer-by-committee role that seems to be developing with Todd Coffey and David Riske as the "anchors" to the back end of the Brewers' pen.
Cleveland Indians sign Toma Ohka
If I weren't a Tribe fan, there's no way this would be worthy of mention. It still isn't. If he stays healthy, he could be a fifth starter. But that's a big if, and the Indians don't need a fifth starter, they already have a few in their rotation with Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers, and Zach Jackson. I refuse to provide any additional analysis, I regard Ohka making a major league appearance as astonishingly unlikely -- Scott Elarton may yet return.
I'm way behind on trades, so I hope to get to those tomorrow.
The Giants signed Edgar Renteria, continuing to build Brian Sabean's bridge to the past. Next week, I'm laying even odds that the Giants sign John McCain -- though in defense of that move, McCain would probably be a more adequate offensive first baseman than Travis Ishikawa and all indications are that McCain can be bought for considerably less than Edgar Renteria. Zing.
Renteria is a serviceable player who has rarely been more than that and regressed defensively to be considerably below average in 2008. Renteria's not going to add signicant home run pop to the lineup, but adds another Aaron Roward, Fred Lewis 15-20 home-run ceiling guy to the lineup. He's likely to be an offensive upgrade from Emmanuel Burriss, sure, but he's not worth the alarming price they paid for a shortstop that no one seemed too gung ho on adding. Renteria is and almost always has been a league average guy. Since he plays shortstop, league average isn't a bad thing, but he adds only marginally more than a Mark Grudzialanek (if any). Renteria has fared better in the National League, but don't get confused into thinking 2007 shows what he'll do, 2007 showed only what BABIP can do when all luck breaks in someone's favor, because Renteria's was nearly .400 in 2007. When it returned to league average in 2008, so did he.
Renteria's speed has decayed as well, limiting him to 6 steals in 2008, and his extra base potential was negligible, mustering only 22 doubles and 2 triples in cavernous Comerica (National) Park. So despite the Giants having a dearth of power (Bengie Molina led the team with 16 home runs last year, the team mustered a whopping .382 SLG), it's not clear that Renteria is going to add much there. Certainly $9.25 million a year could have bought more on this market -- rather than a guy who slugged the same as Nick Punto, but with a considerably lower OBP and worse glove. Punto (.284/.344/.382) and Grudzialanek (.299/.345/.399) could probably have both been had for $9.25 million, and even if Renteria's 2008 was an aberration, it's unlikely it was much of one.
Giants sign Bobby Howry to a 1 year, $2.75 million contract
The Giants signed Bobby Howry, a move that helps add unnecessary age to the Giants' roster, but adds a potentially serviceable right-handed reliever. At 2.75 million, he's a reasonable gamble, but it's hard to see him being a great pitcher in 2008. Howry is 35 now, and has been worked hard over his last few seasons (73, 76 2/3, 81 1/3, 70 2/3) for a reliever. Howry hasn't seen an uptick in his walk rate that would presage decline, but his strikeouts were down in 2008 after being up in 2006 and 2007. And a 1.46 WHIP and 90 hits in 70 2/3 innings don't encourage anyone except opposing hitters.
Atlanta signs C David Ross to a two-year, $3 million contract
Huh? $3 million for a backup catcher to Brian McCann? 2 years to David Ross? Frank Wren has lost his mind. If you want to find out how John Schuerholz got so much from the Braves for so long, it was by avoiding throwing real money at the players who were there to not play. His heir apparent hasn't learned this. Instead of going with Clint Sammons, Brayan Pena, or any of the other backup catchers that have dotted a 40-man roster in recent years, the Braves sign a catcher to a $3 million deal when it's not certain he could have gotten a major league contract elsewhere. He lost his job in Cincinnati to Paul Bako and Javier Valentin in the last two years. Moreover, Ross has enough power that he might be a useful pinch hitter -- but you can't use him as a pinch hitter unless you're carrying three catchers.
I'm of the opinion that backup catcher is one of the places where a low-budget team can and should cut costs. (I originally typed that as costes...which I think is a Freudian slip, since I think another great option for the Braves is to wait until March and pick up Chris Coste after the Phillies cut him loose to make room for Lou Marson.) David Ross is a waste of money for a team that's a long way from filling all their holes. Billy Traber signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox for considerably less, and would have filled a far greater need for the Braves -- someone who might be able to pitch.
Seattle Mariners sign Russell Branyan to a one year, $1.4 million contract
The Mariners first move in the offseason was to sign Russell Branyan. No need to print those playoff tickets now, Mariners fans. Branyan is king of the small sample size -- he can make for one pretty stat sheet so long as he doesn't face right-handed pitchers, so long as you don't look at defensive statistics and so long as you don't give random chance an opportunity to start evening things out. He has prodigious power, he draws a good number of walks, and he strikes out nearly every other time he's at the plate. In 2000 career at bats, he's struck out 797 times. Branyan has had three years of below average BABIP, but he's also the kind of player you don't expect to fare well in BABIP because if he puts it in play (remember: BABIP excludes home runs), it's an out. He's a three true outcomes hitter -- home runs, walks, strikeouts.
Branyan will probably see a lot of time at 1B and DH for the Mariners, who are currently slated to fill those slots with Bryan LaHair and...oh lord. It's astonishing to think that Erik Bedard was on the Mariners' radar a year ago and they were supposed to contend for the AL West title. Look what a load of lousy free agent signings (Richie Sexson, Jarrod Washburn, Carlos Silva) and idiotic trades with the Cleveland Indians for platoon players (Asdrubal Cabrera for Eduardo Perez; Shin-Soo Choo for Ben Broussard) can do to an organization. Then subtract top-level prospects like Chris Tillman and Adam Jones and this team is stripped down to Ichiro, Adrian Beltre, and a middle infield that had a COMBINED +46 OBP. (Betancourt adding 21 points, Lopez a much more patient 25). To emphasize how awful that combined +46 OBP is...keep in mind, through no virtue of "patience", Chase Utley added 38 points to his OBP by being HIT WITH PITCHES. Lean in next year, Yuniesky/Jose.
Mariners projected lineup as of this move:
RF Suzuki
CF Reed
2B Lopez
3B Beltre
DH Branyan/Johjima (yeah, seriously)
LF Balantien
C Clement
1B LaHair
SS Betancourt
Detroit Tigers sign Adam Everett to a one year, $1 million deal
So much for the lineup of nine intimidating bats, the Tigers are now down to signing punchless defensive wizards to fill the holes in their lineup. Adam Everett will split time with Ramon Santiago at shortstop, neither of them will hit the ball. Everett can field (range factor about 1/2 a play per nine innings over league average for his career), but can't hit, hit for power, draw a whole lot of walks, or steal many bases. If Everett could summon his 2004 numbers (.273/.317/.385) and muster an OPS over .700, he might be worth playing even on a half-decent team. It's not likely to happen. Even on a defense-first team in Minnesota last year, they decided there was more to life than fielding grounders and he lost his job to the mighty Nick Punto/Brendan Harris combination that will some day be remembered alongside Honus Wagner as shortstops who did not appear on tobacco companies' baseball cards (Wagner because he insisted to be removed, Punto and Harris because tobacco sales are lagging enough as is).
Tigers projected lineup as of this move:
CF Granderson
2B Polanco
LF Guillen
RF Ordonez
1B Cabrera
DH Sheffield
C Laird
3B Inge
SS Everett
Boston Red Sox sign Junichi Tazawa
I don't know anything about Tazawa, I know that he's not major league ready, considering the contract he landed from the Red Sox. Japanese pitchers are spotty at best and tend to burn out quickly. Hideki Irabu, Hideo Nomo, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kasuhiro Sasaki, Tomo Ohka, Masahide Kobayashi, and Kei Igawa are all names that were supposed to be impacts, but aside from Daisuke (who is fine as a 6-inning pitcher, but hasn't done anything beyond that), the others had fleeting impacts and burned out quickly. He'll have a couple mentors in Matsuzaka and Hideki Okajima, but will not probably play a major role for this team this year.
Milwaukee Brewers sign Jorge Julio
Jorge Julio is a player that's never worth signing in November, but can prove useful if you're the second team in a season to end up with him. For three straight years, he's been ineffective with the team he began the year with (Mets, Marlins, Indians) and found himself released or traded to a new team (Diamondbacks, Rockies, Braves). Then he puts up better numbers with his new team and finds himself a free agent yet again. After six seasons of 60+ appearances, 2008 brought him a bad run with the Indians as a mop-up man who never found himself worthy of anything better and then sent him to the out-of-contention Braves where he dazzled with a 0.73 ERA without really earning it -- his WHIP (1.38) was nearly twice his ERA. Julio walks a ton of batters with a career rate of nearly .5 BB/IP that has increased as his career has continued. But he's only two seasons removed from a year where he struck out 88 batters in 67 IP, so it's not hard to see why teams keep considering him a minor option. For a team as bullpen-needy as the Brewers, it makes sense. He is another failed closer to dump into the closer-by-committee role that seems to be developing with Todd Coffey and David Riske as the "anchors" to the back end of the Brewers' pen.
Cleveland Indians sign Toma Ohka
If I weren't a Tribe fan, there's no way this would be worthy of mention. It still isn't. If he stays healthy, he could be a fifth starter. But that's a big if, and the Indians don't need a fifth starter, they already have a few in their rotation with Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers, and Zach Jackson. I refuse to provide any additional analysis, I regard Ohka making a major league appearance as astonishingly unlikely -- Scott Elarton may yet return.
I'm way behind on trades, so I hope to get to those tomorrow.
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Astros sign Doug Brocail
This is what passes for news. Brocail is going back for $2.5 million, even though he's coming off a surprisingly respectable season into a market where loads of teams with money need relief pitching. I'm assuming there's a personal factor here for Brocail, because you'd think that even in the NL the Mets would cough up enough money to make it worth considering. Last year actually marked a regression from 2007, where he put up a 3.05 ERA despite having a considerably lower strikeout rate. That number was likely influenced by BABIP and a large number of unearned runs (in 2007, 7 of the 33 runs he allowed were unearned).
In 2008, he fell off with a 3.93 ERA and a higher WHIP, but he still had a decent season and showed a spike in his strikeout rate (.93 K/IP as opposed to a career .71 K/IP before 2008).
All in all, it's a respectable enough signing that fills a need in the Astros' bullpen, but it's not going to be a difference-making move.
The Astros also signed Mike Hampton, pending a physical, yesterday, but I didn't bother to say anything about it. Why? Well, because saying that the Astros signed Mike Hampton pending a physical is kind of like saying the Indians have signed Trevor Hoffman, pending a contract offer being extended and agreed upon. Hampton is a good signing solely because he's cheap and if he pitches, he'll pitch better than Brandon Backe did in 2007. Since the Astros seem to have backed off signing Randy Wolf and declined to offer him arbitration, Hampton can theoretically fill that role if he can stay healthy.
In 2008, he fell off with a 3.93 ERA and a higher WHIP, but he still had a decent season and showed a spike in his strikeout rate (.93 K/IP as opposed to a career .71 K/IP before 2008).
All in all, it's a respectable enough signing that fills a need in the Astros' bullpen, but it's not going to be a difference-making move.
The Astros also signed Mike Hampton, pending a physical, yesterday, but I didn't bother to say anything about it. Why? Well, because saying that the Astros signed Mike Hampton pending a physical is kind of like saying the Indians have signed Trevor Hoffman, pending a contract offer being extended and agreed upon. Hampton is a good signing solely because he's cheap and if he pitches, he'll pitch better than Brandon Backe did in 2007. Since the Astros seem to have backed off signing Randy Wolf and declined to offer him arbitration, Hampton can theoretically fill that role if he can stay healthy.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Cardinals sign Trever Miller
The St. Louis Cardinals signed left-handed reliever Trever Miller, recently of the AL Champion Tampa Bay Rays. The Cardinals were in the market for left-handed relief pitching, though given the disastrous performance of nearly all in the St. Louis bullpen, it's odd that they're focused so heavily on left-handers.
Miller was adequate for the Rays, with a 4.15 ERA in 2008, but is really a one-out pitcher, given his right-handed split (7.50 ERA, 20 H, 10 BB, 14 K in 18 IP against RHB). Against lefties, he allowed only 19 H and 10 BB in 25.1 IP, while also striking out 30.
This isn't a move that I think represents much of an upgrade for the Cardinals, but it's not likely to be a particularly expensive deal either. The present left-handed options were Tyler Johnson (decent in 2007, missed 2008 with rotator cuff surgery), Randy Flores (who walked more batters than he struck out in 2008 and compiled a BAA of .314 against lefties and .316 against right-handed batters), and Jaime Garcia, whose numbers are too incidental and small in size to warrant mention.
If Tyler Johnson can post his 2007 numbers again, I think he'll probably have a better season than Trever Miller. But for a manager who manages like Tony LaRussa and uses pitchers for as many 0 inning appearances or 1/3 inning appearances, I'm sure Miller appears to play a valuable role. I'd have pushed harder for a Dennys Reyes, though, who has a lot more positive upside (or even Alan Embree, who got hit last year, but has strung together a lot of good seasons. Miller is still a pitcher who's had two career seasons with a WHIP under this season's 1.36 (2004, 2006). If that's what he has to offer, the Cardinals might have done well to wait and sign Mike Lincoln.
Cardinals' bullpen:
CL Chris Perez
RHP Ryan Franklin
RHP Jason Motte
LHP Trever Miller
RHP Kyle McClellan
LHP Tyler Johnson
Miller was adequate for the Rays, with a 4.15 ERA in 2008, but is really a one-out pitcher, given his right-handed split (7.50 ERA, 20 H, 10 BB, 14 K in 18 IP against RHB). Against lefties, he allowed only 19 H and 10 BB in 25.1 IP, while also striking out 30.
This isn't a move that I think represents much of an upgrade for the Cardinals, but it's not likely to be a particularly expensive deal either. The present left-handed options were Tyler Johnson (decent in 2007, missed 2008 with rotator cuff surgery), Randy Flores (who walked more batters than he struck out in 2008 and compiled a BAA of .314 against lefties and .316 against right-handed batters), and Jaime Garcia, whose numbers are too incidental and small in size to warrant mention.
If Tyler Johnson can post his 2007 numbers again, I think he'll probably have a better season than Trever Miller. But for a manager who manages like Tony LaRussa and uses pitchers for as many 0 inning appearances or 1/3 inning appearances, I'm sure Miller appears to play a valuable role. I'd have pushed harder for a Dennys Reyes, though, who has a lot more positive upside (or even Alan Embree, who got hit last year, but has strung together a lot of good seasons. Miller is still a pitcher who's had two career seasons with a WHIP under this season's 1.36 (2004, 2006). If that's what he has to offer, the Cardinals might have done well to wait and sign Mike Lincoln.
Cardinals' bullpen:
CL Chris Perez
RHP Ryan Franklin
RHP Jason Motte
LHP Trever Miller
RHP Kyle McClellan
LHP Tyler Johnson
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Crisp for Ramirez trade; what it means for Mark Teahen; Mike Mussina retires
Deal: The Boston Red Sox trade Coco Crisp to the Kansas City Royals for right-handed relief pitcher Ramon Ramirez.
Analysis:
Seriously, Dayton Moore, i understand that with the death of Fire Joe Morgan, there's a lack of humor in all of our baseball-related lives. But that's no reason to keep making 99% of the baseball world laugh themselves to sleep, grateful that they're not Royals fans.
The Kansas City Royals made another trade, dealing another relief pitcher for another bat. Once again, the Royals traded a pitcher who may be at a value peak, but the return is nothing spectacular. Now there is talk that the Royals are in the market to acquire relief pitching, but their only trade pieces are the players that the first two trades have now made superflous, giving other teams little reason to pay much for them.
Crisp is a serviceable player, who will hit between .270-300 with an OBP between .320-.350. He has 15-20 home run potential and could probably steal 30 bases as an everyday player. But he's not a major offensive producer and regressed badly in Boston, where he mustered OPS+ of 77, 83, and 93 in his three seasons. But the Red Sox apparently regarded him as a luxury with the equally underwhelming, but more stolen base-prone Jacoby Ellsbury roaming in center field.
In exchange for Crisp, who will now likely lead off for the on-base and slugging-starved Royals, the Red Sox got Ramon Ramirez, a three-pitch reliever (fastball, changeup, slider) who has had two solid seasons in the majors and one disastrous one (2007), but has also been traded three times in his brief career. Ramirez fared well in 2006 and 2008, but his success in 2008 was due in no small part (as Dave Cameron notes on fangraphs) on an extremely low home run rate. Moving out of Kauffman Stadium, a pitcher-friendly venue even for the home team that's not pitching to the Royals, into Fenway Park will not help Ramirez on that count.
The Red Sox didn't get much in return for Crisp, who ended up being a substantial player for the 2008 squad because of Jacoby Ellsbury's impatience at the plate and late-season struggles, but they did get rid of a sizable contract for a part-time player and got someone who is at least going to be a replacement-level reliever that the Red Sox can use in lieu of a Mike Timlin. And yes, it means Justin Masterson might be able to make the move to the rotation, but as we've seen with Papelbon in 2007 and Clay Buchholz in 2008, things don't always go as planned in that rotation.
And I think the Red Sox got the better end of the deal, in any event. The Royals made a trade that's not bad, they got the better of the two players -- or at least the player who is a safer projection as the better of the two. But they also acquired a player who basically requires another move to be made. They have now added another outfielder to a mix that already had three guaranteed starters in Mark Teahen, David DeJesus, and Jose Guillen. Teahen's name has been in trade discussions and rumors -- with potential suitors being identified (falsely, apparently) as the Indians (who were, again, apparently falsely rumored to be willing to part with Ben Francisco, Franklin Gutierrez, or Trevor Crowe to get Teahen to play third) and the Cubs. But now, by acquiring a center fielder that will move DeJesus to left to suit the Royals' desires, they also put Mark Teahen on an obvious trade block. There's no room at DH, where the Royals already have a mess of players led by Billy Butler and, if Trey Hillman is an active observer of the game, Mike Jacobs -- a more woeful first baseman than the woeful Butler. They still have Ryan Shealy, Kiia Ka'ahuie, and theoretically Ross Gload.
They now basically have to move Mark Teahen in a trade or convince him to make another position change -- this time to second base, where he wouldn't be much worse defensively than the Royals' current leading option -- Esteban German. And there's little reason to believe he can bring back much in a trade when 1) other teams know he's worthless dead weight to the Royals and 2) he's not a particularly valuable player (91 OPS+ as a right fielder in 2008), he's really more of a poor man's Casey Blake because of the 1B/3B/RF position versatility -- a role that I think we can all agree is already filled by a readily-available free agent: Casey Blake.
Projected Royals' lineup:
LF DeJesus
SS Aviles
3B Gordon
RF Guillen
1B Jacobs
DH Butler
C Olivo/Buck
CF Crisp
2B German/Callaspo
Note: This presupposes that the Royals are observant enough to note that DeJesus' OBP warrants him being a leadoff batter. Deep down, I think we'll see Coco Crisp leading off and DeJesus dropping to third, plus a regression to the mean that will see Mike Aviles fall to 8th or 9th in the lineup. Keep in mind that Aviles' career minor league numbers fall well short in nearly every category of the numbers he posted in Kansas City last year.
In other news...
Mike Mussina has apparently decided to retire after his first 20-win season. Mussina had an impressive year in 2008, and even one that looked relatively sustainable, since so much of his success was attributable to a remarkable ability to avoid walks (31 BB in 200.1 IP), but it seems likely that the Yankees weren't counting on Mussina as a linchpin for their rotation.
Analysis:
Seriously, Dayton Moore, i understand that with the death of Fire Joe Morgan, there's a lack of humor in all of our baseball-related lives. But that's no reason to keep making 99% of the baseball world laugh themselves to sleep, grateful that they're not Royals fans.
The Kansas City Royals made another trade, dealing another relief pitcher for another bat. Once again, the Royals traded a pitcher who may be at a value peak, but the return is nothing spectacular. Now there is talk that the Royals are in the market to acquire relief pitching, but their only trade pieces are the players that the first two trades have now made superflous, giving other teams little reason to pay much for them.
Crisp is a serviceable player, who will hit between .270-300 with an OBP between .320-.350. He has 15-20 home run potential and could probably steal 30 bases as an everyday player. But he's not a major offensive producer and regressed badly in Boston, where he mustered OPS+ of 77, 83, and 93 in his three seasons. But the Red Sox apparently regarded him as a luxury with the equally underwhelming, but more stolen base-prone Jacoby Ellsbury roaming in center field.
In exchange for Crisp, who will now likely lead off for the on-base and slugging-starved Royals, the Red Sox got Ramon Ramirez, a three-pitch reliever (fastball, changeup, slider) who has had two solid seasons in the majors and one disastrous one (2007), but has also been traded three times in his brief career. Ramirez fared well in 2006 and 2008, but his success in 2008 was due in no small part (as Dave Cameron notes on fangraphs) on an extremely low home run rate. Moving out of Kauffman Stadium, a pitcher-friendly venue even for the home team that's not pitching to the Royals, into Fenway Park will not help Ramirez on that count.
The Red Sox didn't get much in return for Crisp, who ended up being a substantial player for the 2008 squad because of Jacoby Ellsbury's impatience at the plate and late-season struggles, but they did get rid of a sizable contract for a part-time player and got someone who is at least going to be a replacement-level reliever that the Red Sox can use in lieu of a Mike Timlin. And yes, it means Justin Masterson might be able to make the move to the rotation, but as we've seen with Papelbon in 2007 and Clay Buchholz in 2008, things don't always go as planned in that rotation.
And I think the Red Sox got the better end of the deal, in any event. The Royals made a trade that's not bad, they got the better of the two players -- or at least the player who is a safer projection as the better of the two. But they also acquired a player who basically requires another move to be made. They have now added another outfielder to a mix that already had three guaranteed starters in Mark Teahen, David DeJesus, and Jose Guillen. Teahen's name has been in trade discussions and rumors -- with potential suitors being identified (falsely, apparently) as the Indians (who were, again, apparently falsely rumored to be willing to part with Ben Francisco, Franklin Gutierrez, or Trevor Crowe to get Teahen to play third) and the Cubs. But now, by acquiring a center fielder that will move DeJesus to left to suit the Royals' desires, they also put Mark Teahen on an obvious trade block. There's no room at DH, where the Royals already have a mess of players led by Billy Butler and, if Trey Hillman is an active observer of the game, Mike Jacobs -- a more woeful first baseman than the woeful Butler. They still have Ryan Shealy, Kiia Ka'ahuie, and theoretically Ross Gload.
They now basically have to move Mark Teahen in a trade or convince him to make another position change -- this time to second base, where he wouldn't be much worse defensively than the Royals' current leading option -- Esteban German. And there's little reason to believe he can bring back much in a trade when 1) other teams know he's worthless dead weight to the Royals and 2) he's not a particularly valuable player (91 OPS+ as a right fielder in 2008), he's really more of a poor man's Casey Blake because of the 1B/3B/RF position versatility -- a role that I think we can all agree is already filled by a readily-available free agent: Casey Blake.
Projected Royals' lineup:
LF DeJesus
SS Aviles
3B Gordon
RF Guillen
1B Jacobs
DH Butler
C Olivo/Buck
CF Crisp
2B German/Callaspo
Note: This presupposes that the Royals are observant enough to note that DeJesus' OBP warrants him being a leadoff batter. Deep down, I think we'll see Coco Crisp leading off and DeJesus dropping to third, plus a regression to the mean that will see Mike Aviles fall to 8th or 9th in the lineup. Keep in mind that Aviles' career minor league numbers fall well short in nearly every category of the numbers he posted in Kansas City last year.
In other news...
Mike Mussina has apparently decided to retire after his first 20-win season. Mussina had an impressive year in 2008, and even one that looked relatively sustainable, since so much of his success was attributable to a remarkable ability to avoid walks (31 BB in 200.1 IP), but it seems likely that the Yankees weren't counting on Mussina as a linchpin for their rotation.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Ryan Dempster re-signs with the Cubs
Ryan Dempster has returned to the Chicago Cubs for 4 years and $52 million. Dempster is coming off a career year and then some, having gone 17-9 with a 2.96 ERA and 187 Ks in his first year back in the rotation after several years as an inconsistent closer.
Dempster is an enigma, he's had two good seasons as a starter, but has been mostly ineffective in his career. He seemed to resolve most of the control problems that had haunted him in Florida, but also didn't give up much in the way of hits.
Assuming Dempster is anything vaguely resembling the pitcher he was in 2008, the contract is pretty reasonable for the Cubs. There's a $4 million signing bonus, $8 million in 2009, $12.5 million in 2010, $13.5 million in 2011, and a player option in 2012 for $14 million. That's a big assumption, though, Dempster has never shown any real consistency.
As much as the press made of Dempster's effectiveness at home, his home/road splits are actually pretty similar, except for his record on the road (a pedestrian 3-3, despite a 3.13 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the road). Dempster's biggest weakness, besides control problems in the past, is his struggle with left-handed batters. (1.76 WHIP, .282 BAA career) Last year, however, he kept lefties in check to the tune of 1.29 WHIP, .243 BAA. He also managed to keep balls in the yard, finishing with the 8th best home run rate among qualifying pitchers. That said, it's likely unsustainable that he can maintain that rate, considering his career numbers and the fact that he's not really a heavy-sinker pitcher. His BABIP was just under league average, so it's unlikely that he's a complete fluke.
The $13 million he averages over the life of this deal is just a touch more than the Reds are paying Francisco Cordero, so if Dempster proves to drop off a bit and have to return to his old role as a closer who blows 5-6 saves a season, the Cubs are still in relatively good hands. And so long as he is anything like the pitcher they had last season, he's a solid investment who's already had his Tommy John surgery and is probably going to hold up for the life of his deal better than free agent alternatives like A.J. Burnett, who is expected to command more than this deal.
The Dempster deal really seems to make the Jake Peavy trade very unlikely, since the Cubs' rotation is pretty well set with a number of other options in the organization.
Projected Cubs rotation:
RHP Carlos Zambrano
RHP Ryan Dempster
RHP Rich Harden
LHP Ted Lilly
RHP Jason Marquis/RHP Sean Marshall/RHP Rich Hill (remember him?)
Dempster is an enigma, he's had two good seasons as a starter, but has been mostly ineffective in his career. He seemed to resolve most of the control problems that had haunted him in Florida, but also didn't give up much in the way of hits.
Assuming Dempster is anything vaguely resembling the pitcher he was in 2008, the contract is pretty reasonable for the Cubs. There's a $4 million signing bonus, $8 million in 2009, $12.5 million in 2010, $13.5 million in 2011, and a player option in 2012 for $14 million. That's a big assumption, though, Dempster has never shown any real consistency.
As much as the press made of Dempster's effectiveness at home, his home/road splits are actually pretty similar, except for his record on the road (a pedestrian 3-3, despite a 3.13 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the road). Dempster's biggest weakness, besides control problems in the past, is his struggle with left-handed batters. (1.76 WHIP, .282 BAA career) Last year, however, he kept lefties in check to the tune of 1.29 WHIP, .243 BAA. He also managed to keep balls in the yard, finishing with the 8th best home run rate among qualifying pitchers. That said, it's likely unsustainable that he can maintain that rate, considering his career numbers and the fact that he's not really a heavy-sinker pitcher. His BABIP was just under league average, so it's unlikely that he's a complete fluke.
The $13 million he averages over the life of this deal is just a touch more than the Reds are paying Francisco Cordero, so if Dempster proves to drop off a bit and have to return to his old role as a closer who blows 5-6 saves a season, the Cubs are still in relatively good hands. And so long as he is anything like the pitcher they had last season, he's a solid investment who's already had his Tommy John surgery and is probably going to hold up for the life of his deal better than free agent alternatives like A.J. Burnett, who is expected to command more than this deal.
The Dempster deal really seems to make the Jake Peavy trade very unlikely, since the Cubs' rotation is pretty well set with a number of other options in the organization.
Projected Cubs rotation:
RHP Carlos Zambrano
RHP Ryan Dempster
RHP Rich Harden
LHP Ted Lilly
RHP Jason Marquis/RHP Sean Marshall/RHP Rich Hill (remember him?)
Monday, November 17, 2008
Affeldt signs with San Francisco
The Giants have signed left-handed reliever Jeremy Affeldt to a 2-year deal
Affeldt was relatively effective with the Reds in 2008, although he failed in his quest to crack the Reds' rotation. Upon the signing last year, Wayne Krivsky said the Reds were hoping he'd be a starter, then Affeldt didn't seem to get much of a shot at starting and had an awful spring training (8 games, 4 starts, ERA of 10.69).
Affeldt's a bit of an enigma. In 2007, he was a hard man to get hits off of (BAA of .226, 47 hits in 59 IP), in 2008, he was much more pedestrian in that category (.260, 78 hits in 78.1 IP), but still dropped his WHIP by .05 by not throwing so many walks. He's had three good years in his entire career (one of which was as a starter in 2003), but he's timed the last two well.
So why could this be a good signing for the Giants? Affeldt's not just useful against left-handed batters. In fact, last season lefties hit .269 against him, righties mustered only a .255 average (although Affeldt has a tendency to walk right-handed batters -- 20 of them in 49.2 IP, none intentional). And most of all, Jeremy Affeldt hated pitching in Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park, to a tune of 4.64 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, .302 BAA in 42.2 IP. On the road, he pitched 35.2 innings, but put up a sparkling ERA of 1.77, 1.04 WHIP, and .203 BAA.
That said, Affeldt hasn't fared too well on the road in his prior trip through the NL West. In 2007, he was dominant at Coors Field (1.74 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, .160 BAA), but got lit up on the road (5.46, 1.71, .294). He also hasn't pitched well in AT&T Park (6.43 ERA), though the sample size of 7 innings is pretty meaningless.
What does the signing really mean for the Giants? Probably not much. To me, it means Alex Hinshaw may get a shot to unseat Brian Wilson as the Giants' closer (or at least split duties with him), leaving Affeldt and Jack Taschner as the "situational" lefties in the Giants' bullpen. Maybe Affelt is now a designated 8th-inning guy regardless of who is at the plate because of his relatively even splits and maybe it means Taschner gets sent to AAA, but I'd be kind of surprised if that move were on the horizon after 178 major league games for the Giants.
Projected Giants bullpen:
CL Brian Wilson
LHP Alex Hinshaw
RHP Sergio Romo
LHP Jeremy Affeldt
RHP Keiichi Yabu
RHP Billy Sadler
RHP Osiris Matos
Affeldt was relatively effective with the Reds in 2008, although he failed in his quest to crack the Reds' rotation. Upon the signing last year, Wayne Krivsky said the Reds were hoping he'd be a starter, then Affeldt didn't seem to get much of a shot at starting and had an awful spring training (8 games, 4 starts, ERA of 10.69).
Affeldt's a bit of an enigma. In 2007, he was a hard man to get hits off of (BAA of .226, 47 hits in 59 IP), in 2008, he was much more pedestrian in that category (.260, 78 hits in 78.1 IP), but still dropped his WHIP by .05 by not throwing so many walks. He's had three good years in his entire career (one of which was as a starter in 2003), but he's timed the last two well.
So why could this be a good signing for the Giants? Affeldt's not just useful against left-handed batters. In fact, last season lefties hit .269 against him, righties mustered only a .255 average (although Affeldt has a tendency to walk right-handed batters -- 20 of them in 49.2 IP, none intentional). And most of all, Jeremy Affeldt hated pitching in Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park, to a tune of 4.64 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, .302 BAA in 42.2 IP. On the road, he pitched 35.2 innings, but put up a sparkling ERA of 1.77, 1.04 WHIP, and .203 BAA.
That said, Affeldt hasn't fared too well on the road in his prior trip through the NL West. In 2007, he was dominant at Coors Field (1.74 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, .160 BAA), but got lit up on the road (5.46, 1.71, .294). He also hasn't pitched well in AT&T Park (6.43 ERA), though the sample size of 7 innings is pretty meaningless.
What does the signing really mean for the Giants? Probably not much. To me, it means Alex Hinshaw may get a shot to unseat Brian Wilson as the Giants' closer (or at least split duties with him), leaving Affeldt and Jack Taschner as the "situational" lefties in the Giants' bullpen. Maybe Affelt is now a designated 8th-inning guy regardless of who is at the plate because of his relatively even splits and maybe it means Taschner gets sent to AAA, but I'd be kind of surprised if that move were on the horizon after 178 major league games for the Giants.
Projected Giants bullpen:
CL Brian Wilson
LHP Alex Hinshaw
RHP Sergio Romo
LHP Jeremy Affeldt
RHP Keiichi Yabu
RHP Billy Sadler
RHP Osiris Matos
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Thursday Trade Blitz; Gregg; Swisher; Damaso (not Andy) Marte re-signs
Deal:
The Chicago Cubs trade for ousted Marlins' closer Kevin Gregg, giving up relief pitching prospect Jose Ceda.
Analysis:
Kevin Gregg was an effective closer up until about August, when the wheels seemed to come off. Although he'd blown 4 saves in the first two months of the season, every one of those saves was a 1-run save. On July 3-4, Gregg blew two straight saves, allowing two runs in each appearance even at that, he settled in, but completely fell apart in August, compiling an ERA of 10.18 after ERAs of 2.51, 2.08, 2.38, and 2.92 in previous months. The Marlins pulled him from the closer's role and replaced him with Matt Lindstrom, who converted all five of his save opportunities.
Gregg improved by leaps and bounds once he got in Florida, and it looks at first glance like it was all traceable to his suddenly unhittable stuff, because batters went from hitting .278 and .280 his last two seasons with the Angels to .206 and .203 his two seasons in Florida. His home run rate dropped dramatically from 10 to 3 after two years in Miami. But, as fangraphs shows us, Gregg's resurgence probably has a lot more to do with good luck (or good team defense -- but in Florida, I'll assume it was luck) than great improvement as a pitcher.
Though his other numbers make it look like all is fine in Kevin Gregg-land, the sharp drop in his K rate indicates that Gregg may be in trouble. After striking out 1.03 an inning in 2007 to 0.84 K/IP, while his walk rate soared from an already career high 0.40 BB/IP in 2007 to a 0.54 BB/IP in 2008. This is a frightening combination, particularly for a pitcher who can be expected to allow more home runs in the Friendly Confines than in the pitcher-friendly confines of Dolphins Stadium. So there's good reason to believe the Cubs aren't getting a dynamite closer/setup man.
What did they give up? Jose Ceda, a 21 year-old fireballing prospect who compiled a 2.08 ERA in AA Tennessee last year. Ceda was rated as the #4 prospect in the Cubs' organization behind untouchable Josh Vitters, NL Rookie of the Year Geovany Soto, and outfielder Tyler Colvin (Ceda was rated ahead of players like Jeff Samardzija, Eric Patterson, and Sean Gallagher -- the latter two of whom were traded in the Rich Harden deal). Though Ceda struggled in the Florida State League, when he got to AA, he blew away hitters, striking out 42 in 30.1 innings. He has struggled with his control at times (31 BB in 46 IP at low-A Peoria in 2007 and about 0.50 BB/IP in A/AA ball last year) and has a tendency to gain weight (last year wavering between 247 and his now-listed 275 pounds).
It's hard to see how this deal makes sense for the Cubs. Only a couple days after making an astonishing deal for low-level prospects who couldn't contribute in the near future, Larry Beinfest makes a deal for a pitcher who's probably only a year away by dealing an overrated closer that seems to have gotten by on luck for the last two years. Gregg may be okay for the Cubs, but doesn't offer much more than was available on the free agent market for what Gregg will cost post-arbitration, and may offer less than Ceda might have in the Majors this year. And Ceda is only 21.
Now, the Cubs have announced that Kerry Wood won't be back. Don't worry about getting swept in the playoffs next year, Cubs fans. With this kind of management, you should finish about fourth.
Deal:
Damaso Marte re-signs with the Yankees for 3 years, $12 million.
Analysis:
I was surprised the Yankees didn't pick up Marte's $6 million option, but they got a potentially better deal by giving Marte a couple extra years.
Marte was an odd player last year thanks to some sample sizes, because lefties hit him considerably better than right-handers (this is not historically the case, however). He didn't pitch particularly well for the Yankees (5.40 ERA, 1.31 WHIP), but most of it could be attributed to a sudden spike in walks (10 in 18.1 innings for the Yankees after 16 in 46.2 IP for the Pirates). At $4 million per, Marte could be a good value and probably compares favorably to available left-handed relievers like Alan Embree and about even with Jeremy Affeldt (who signed for $4 million last year). While Dennys Reyes may have been available more cheaply, Marte has more upside and can fit a role beyond a left-handed specialist.
Deal:
Nick Swisher and Kanekoa Texeira are traded to the New York Yankees for Wilson Betemit, Jeff Marquez, and Jhonny Nunez.
Analysis:
Nick Swisher and Jhonny Nunez are the new chlamydia.
It seems like everyone in baseball goes to bed and wakes up with Nick Swisher, he of the legendary "Moneyball" draft where Billy Beane slandered players such as B.J. Upton, Scott Kazmir, Cole Hamels, and Prince Fielder (all, as you know, monumental failures) while drafting first-ballot Hall of Famer Jeremy Brown (at least I assume Golden Tee has a hall of fame) Swisher has been traded twice in the last calendar year and now joins the Yankees, possibly as a center fielder, possibly as a right fielder, and possibly as a first baseman.
Swisher was underwhelming in Chicago, with a .219 batting average, .742 OPS, 24 HR, 69 RBI in 153 games. He almost earned the photo on his MLB Player Card with a pitiful performance. (Note also the obviously superimposed Yankees cap). I've never been a fan of Swisher's, but he's been an adequate corner outfielder in the past. If he's the best the Yankees can do at first base, I'd be pretty astonished.
Kanekoa Texeira is not Mark Teixeira and is not a first baseman, and is not a bad-looking prospect. He served as a closer at high-A Winston-Salem and posted a sub-1.00 ERA before making the move to AA and posting a 2.01 in 22.1 IP there. He's still only 22, but his minor league numbers are impressive and he already has an accomplished slider. He wasn't a prospect in the top 30 for the White Sox according to Baseball America last year, but there's little doubt that was going to change.
The White Sox's biggest acquisition in this deal is Wilson Betemit. The White Sox have holes at every infield spot unless Konerko turns on again this year, so Betemit gives them a little versatility, but doesn't offer much in the way of offense or defense. His best positions appear to be third and first, the two spots that the White Sox seem to have filled with Josh Fields and Paul Konerko. He can play some at second base, but has never been a first option there.
2008 was Betemit's worst season, where he notched a whopping .289 OBP (how he slipped by Dayton Moore's trade radar, I'll never know), drawing 6 walks in 189 at bats. Once hyped as something of a 5-tool prospect, he now has only one recognizable tool that would separate him from the average 4A player, and that tool (power) is only marginal (10 HR is his career high, since no team has seen him fit to play everyday).
Jeff Marquez is a fallen prospect in the Yankees organization. A first round pick in the 2004 draft, Marquez pitched well at AA in 2007, but fell off sharply in AAA and watched his K rate decline even farther, striking out 33 in 80.2 IP. Marquez lives off his ability to throw strikes, but doubled his home run rate in 2008 (12 HR allowed in 80.1 after 11 HR allowed in 155 IP in 2007). For a sinkerballer, a rising home run rate is never encouraging. He's only 24, so another trip through AAA might help him learn to put away hitters, but his high-end projection doesn't seem particularly high. It's a strain to see him figuring in the White Sox rotation in the next couple of years.
Jhonny Nunez has faced more than his share of trades, having been traded to the Nationals from the Dodgers for Marlon Anderson, then being traded from the Nats to the Yankees for AG and Washington insider Alberto Gonzale(s)z. Now he's joining his fourth organization before he's spent a full season in AA. Nunez struggled as a starter at high-A Potomac in the extremely pitcher-friendly Carolina League, but excelled as a reliever in AA.
So why make this deal with Betemit as a centerpiece if you're the White Sox? My best guess is that the White Sox hate Jim Callis and his pristine Baseball America Prospect Handbook, which will identify Marquez as a Yankees prospect. Other than that, they achieve nothing -- they hurt their offense, don't make their team any younger, and fill no immediate needs, while removing an everyday player from their lineup in favor of Jerry Owens and Brian Anderson.
The Chicago Cubs trade for ousted Marlins' closer Kevin Gregg, giving up relief pitching prospect Jose Ceda.
Analysis:
Kevin Gregg was an effective closer up until about August, when the wheels seemed to come off. Although he'd blown 4 saves in the first two months of the season, every one of those saves was a 1-run save. On July 3-4, Gregg blew two straight saves, allowing two runs in each appearance even at that, he settled in, but completely fell apart in August, compiling an ERA of 10.18 after ERAs of 2.51, 2.08, 2.38, and 2.92 in previous months. The Marlins pulled him from the closer's role and replaced him with Matt Lindstrom, who converted all five of his save opportunities.
Gregg improved by leaps and bounds once he got in Florida, and it looks at first glance like it was all traceable to his suddenly unhittable stuff, because batters went from hitting .278 and .280 his last two seasons with the Angels to .206 and .203 his two seasons in Florida. His home run rate dropped dramatically from 10 to 3 after two years in Miami. But, as fangraphs shows us, Gregg's resurgence probably has a lot more to do with good luck (or good team defense -- but in Florida, I'll assume it was luck) than great improvement as a pitcher.
Though his other numbers make it look like all is fine in Kevin Gregg-land, the sharp drop in his K rate indicates that Gregg may be in trouble. After striking out 1.03 an inning in 2007 to 0.84 K/IP, while his walk rate soared from an already career high 0.40 BB/IP in 2007 to a 0.54 BB/IP in 2008. This is a frightening combination, particularly for a pitcher who can be expected to allow more home runs in the Friendly Confines than in the pitcher-friendly confines of Dolphins Stadium. So there's good reason to believe the Cubs aren't getting a dynamite closer/setup man.
What did they give up? Jose Ceda, a 21 year-old fireballing prospect who compiled a 2.08 ERA in AA Tennessee last year. Ceda was rated as the #4 prospect in the Cubs' organization behind untouchable Josh Vitters, NL Rookie of the Year Geovany Soto, and outfielder Tyler Colvin (Ceda was rated ahead of players like Jeff Samardzija, Eric Patterson, and Sean Gallagher -- the latter two of whom were traded in the Rich Harden deal). Though Ceda struggled in the Florida State League, when he got to AA, he blew away hitters, striking out 42 in 30.1 innings. He has struggled with his control at times (31 BB in 46 IP at low-A Peoria in 2007 and about 0.50 BB/IP in A/AA ball last year) and has a tendency to gain weight (last year wavering between 247 and his now-listed 275 pounds).
It's hard to see how this deal makes sense for the Cubs. Only a couple days after making an astonishing deal for low-level prospects who couldn't contribute in the near future, Larry Beinfest makes a deal for a pitcher who's probably only a year away by dealing an overrated closer that seems to have gotten by on luck for the last two years. Gregg may be okay for the Cubs, but doesn't offer much more than was available on the free agent market for what Gregg will cost post-arbitration, and may offer less than Ceda might have in the Majors this year. And Ceda is only 21.
Now, the Cubs have announced that Kerry Wood won't be back. Don't worry about getting swept in the playoffs next year, Cubs fans. With this kind of management, you should finish about fourth.
Deal:
Damaso Marte re-signs with the Yankees for 3 years, $12 million.
Analysis:
I was surprised the Yankees didn't pick up Marte's $6 million option, but they got a potentially better deal by giving Marte a couple extra years.
Marte was an odd player last year thanks to some sample sizes, because lefties hit him considerably better than right-handers (this is not historically the case, however). He didn't pitch particularly well for the Yankees (5.40 ERA, 1.31 WHIP), but most of it could be attributed to a sudden spike in walks (10 in 18.1 innings for the Yankees after 16 in 46.2 IP for the Pirates). At $4 million per, Marte could be a good value and probably compares favorably to available left-handed relievers like Alan Embree and about even with Jeremy Affeldt (who signed for $4 million last year). While Dennys Reyes may have been available more cheaply, Marte has more upside and can fit a role beyond a left-handed specialist.
Deal:
Nick Swisher and Kanekoa Texeira are traded to the New York Yankees for Wilson Betemit, Jeff Marquez, and Jhonny Nunez.
Analysis:
Nick Swisher and Jhonny Nunez are the new chlamydia.
It seems like everyone in baseball goes to bed and wakes up with Nick Swisher, he of the legendary "Moneyball" draft where Billy Beane slandered players such as B.J. Upton, Scott Kazmir, Cole Hamels, and Prince Fielder (all, as you know, monumental failures) while drafting first-ballot Hall of Famer Jeremy Brown (at least I assume Golden Tee has a hall of fame) Swisher has been traded twice in the last calendar year and now joins the Yankees, possibly as a center fielder, possibly as a right fielder, and possibly as a first baseman.
Swisher was underwhelming in Chicago, with a .219 batting average, .742 OPS, 24 HR, 69 RBI in 153 games. He almost earned the photo on his MLB Player Card with a pitiful performance. (Note also the obviously superimposed Yankees cap). I've never been a fan of Swisher's, but he's been an adequate corner outfielder in the past. If he's the best the Yankees can do at first base, I'd be pretty astonished.
Kanekoa Texeira is not Mark Teixeira and is not a first baseman, and is not a bad-looking prospect. He served as a closer at high-A Winston-Salem and posted a sub-1.00 ERA before making the move to AA and posting a 2.01 in 22.1 IP there. He's still only 22, but his minor league numbers are impressive and he already has an accomplished slider. He wasn't a prospect in the top 30 for the White Sox according to Baseball America last year, but there's little doubt that was going to change.
The White Sox's biggest acquisition in this deal is Wilson Betemit. The White Sox have holes at every infield spot unless Konerko turns on again this year, so Betemit gives them a little versatility, but doesn't offer much in the way of offense or defense. His best positions appear to be third and first, the two spots that the White Sox seem to have filled with Josh Fields and Paul Konerko. He can play some at second base, but has never been a first option there.
2008 was Betemit's worst season, where he notched a whopping .289 OBP (how he slipped by Dayton Moore's trade radar, I'll never know), drawing 6 walks in 189 at bats. Once hyped as something of a 5-tool prospect, he now has only one recognizable tool that would separate him from the average 4A player, and that tool (power) is only marginal (10 HR is his career high, since no team has seen him fit to play everyday).
Jeff Marquez is a fallen prospect in the Yankees organization. A first round pick in the 2004 draft, Marquez pitched well at AA in 2007, but fell off sharply in AAA and watched his K rate decline even farther, striking out 33 in 80.2 IP. Marquez lives off his ability to throw strikes, but doubled his home run rate in 2008 (12 HR allowed in 80.1 after 11 HR allowed in 155 IP in 2007). For a sinkerballer, a rising home run rate is never encouraging. He's only 24, so another trip through AAA might help him learn to put away hitters, but his high-end projection doesn't seem particularly high. It's a strain to see him figuring in the White Sox rotation in the next couple of years.
Jhonny Nunez has faced more than his share of trades, having been traded to the Nationals from the Dodgers for Marlon Anderson, then being traded from the Nats to the Yankees for AG and Washington insider Alberto Gonzale(s)z. Now he's joining his fourth organization before he's spent a full season in AA. Nunez struggled as a starter at high-A Potomac in the extremely pitcher-friendly Carolina League, but excelled as a reliever in AA.
So why make this deal with Betemit as a centerpiece if you're the White Sox? My best guess is that the White Sox hate Jim Callis and his pristine Baseball America Prospect Handbook, which will identify Marquez as a Yankees prospect. Other than that, they achieve nothing -- they hurt their offense, don't make their team any younger, and fill no immediate needs, while removing an everyday player from their lineup in favor of Jerry Owens and Brian Anderson.
Monday, November 10, 2008
Scott Eyre re-signs with the Phillies
Eyre lands $2 million for one year.
Eyre had been a solid left-handed reliever in the past, but fell apart with the Cubs in the early part of 2008, despite keeping walks in check more than he had in the past. He seemed to work well with Rich Dubee and fared well, becoming a reliable part of the Phillies' pen in the latter half of the season and the playoffs. With the Eyre signing, the Phillies' bullpen is pretty well complete -- Lidge, Madson, Durbin, Condrey, Eyre, and Romero are all near certainties in the 'pen, with one spot open for a cast off from the rotation like Adam Eaton/J.A. Happ/Kyle Kendrick or a reclamation prospect like Scott Mathieson or Mike Zagurski (unlikely, since it'd give them three lefties).
Eyre had been a solid left-handed reliever in the past, but fell apart with the Cubs in the early part of 2008, despite keeping walks in check more than he had in the past. He seemed to work well with Rich Dubee and fared well, becoming a reliable part of the Phillies' pen in the latter half of the season and the playoffs. With the Eyre signing, the Phillies' bullpen is pretty well complete -- Lidge, Madson, Durbin, Condrey, Eyre, and Romero are all near certainties in the 'pen, with one spot open for a cast off from the rotation like Adam Eaton/J.A. Happ/Kyle Kendrick or a reclamation prospect like Scott Mathieson or Mike Zagurski (unlikely, since it'd give them three lefties).
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