Philadelphia Phillies sign Raul Ibanez to a 3-year, $31.5 million contract.
Pat Burrell was exactly what the Phillies needed in their lineup, a batter who can work counts, hit for power, and swings well against left-handed pitchers. He wasn’t a great defender, but he had a phenomenal arm once he got to balls, catching more than a number of baserunners dead to rights when they simply assumed he could never hobble to the ball in time.
Raul Ibanez is a left-handed batter who hits for less power, draws fewer walks, but makes more contact. He is a similarly dreadful defender in left field, is even older than Pat Burrell and runs only marginally better than Burrell, whose parting moment as a Phillie was an inside-the-park home run in Game 5 of the World Series that Burrell barely turned into a double.
Ibanez, like Chan Ho Park and Jamie Moyer below, are players that Ruben Amaro is in love with based on their 2008 performances. Although Ibanez has been a perpetually solid hitter since he actually cracked an everyday lineup in Kansas City, he doesn’t fit the Phillies’ needs, because aside from the 2008 season (where Ruben Amaro witnessed a .305 against lefties /.288 against right-handers split, he’s never hit left-handed pitching all that well (.268/.293 career numbers)). Ibanez is still likely going to lead to Charlie Manuel using Eric Bruntlett in left field (to the extent he’s not filling in at second base for Chase Utley), so he didn’t resolve the biggest gripe that the Phillies could have with Pat Burrell. Though I’d never have thought it possible, it looks like Ibanez has been just as streaky as Burrell the last two years (for instance, Ibanez put up the following lines:.396/.452/.703 in August 2008; .233/.292/.301 for a woeful OPS of .593 in September 2008; .184/.241/.262 in July 2007; .374/.447/.682 in August 2007). Before that, his numbers fell far more in the .750-.890 range on a monthly basis.
Ibanez is a fine player and although he’s 36, he probably feels younger than Pat Burrell on a daily basis considering Ibanez’s slow rise to the majors and just as slow rise to everyday status in the major leagues. But it’s hard to envision him putting up numbers that match Burrell’s. He’s not going to draw as many walks (admittedly, he’ll strike out considerably less, but with Howard in front of him once Utley returns, this just increases the double play possibilities since Ibanez is much more of a ground ball hitter than Burrell). He’s not a fly ball hitter like Burrell, which means he’s not ideally suited to play in Philadelphia anyway, and he’s ultimately going to prove to be equally expensive. While Amaro could have come up with a way to respectably pass Burrell’s torch, signing an equally costly player with the same deficiencies but less upside was not it.
Philadelphia Phillies sign Jamie Moyer to a 2-year, $18 million contract; Philadelphia Phillies sign Chan Ho Park to a 1 year, $2.5 million contract potentially worth $5 million
If there is a single transaction representing just how out of touch Ruben Amaro is with the 2009 free agent market, well, there’s actually two, and for convenience, I’ve lumped them together.
The Moyer deal represents a matter of loyalty. I’d said all offseason that the Phillies had to re-sign Moyer, he represented so much of their success in 2008 and the market was unlikely to be competitive.
And, indeed, there were no signs that the market was competitive, but Amaro still coughed up an astounding $18 million for a pitcher who will be a month shy of 48 when the contract lapses.
Moyer was bafflingly successful in 2008, putting up a 3.71 ERA, 16-7 record, and a WHIP of 1.33. That said, most of that success was on the road, where Moyer’s ERA was more than a run and a half below his ERA at Citizens Bank Park. It wasn’t merely home runs either (11 allowed at home, 9 on the road), Moyer just allowed more hits (109 in 91 2/3 innings at home; 90 in 104 2/3 innings on the road).
The Phillies can expect a regression to the mean, an ERA somewhere at least half a run higher than 2008 (and even a run and a half wouldn’t be shocking), but they can expect Moyer to last into 5-6 innings in every start that’s not in the playoffs. He won’t walk a ton of batters, he probably won’t give up a ton of home runs (Moyer’s 2004 season stands as one of the great aberrations in history), and he is likely to make 32 starts, even at the age of 47 (he hasn’t missed a start in…at least 7 years). But he’s not going to pitch deep into games and he’s not the kind of guy who can stop a losing streak. And in this market, he was not a guy who is going to get a $9 million contract anywhere else.
Chan Ho Park is 7 years removed from being a competent pitcher. Although moving him to the bullpen has let him scatter his ineffectiveness and pin inherited runs allowed on the pitcher preceding him, Park has shown no real signs of success since he signed his preposterous contract with the rangers.
Like Joe Smith (now of the Indians), Park represents a player whose ERA is truly deceiving. In 2008, he had a 3.40 ERA, but had a WHIP of 1.40, allowed 12 home runs and 7 of the 43 runs he allowed were unearned. Anytime you see a number that high in the unearned runs column, you have to wonder just how unearned they really were, particularly when that’d push his ERA up more than half a run. Park is historically a pitcher who allows a fair number of fly balls, which would not play well in Philadelphia (especially compared to Los Angeles). While 2007 is likely an aberration, 2008 appears just as anomalous, so unless Park took 35 years to learn to keep the ball down, the name on Chan Ho’s jersey will tell you where his pitches will be leaving.
The Phillies have said Park will have a chance to compete for the fifth starter job, but I have to write this off as the same story we heard about Chad Durbin in 2007. If the Phillies want a lousy fifth starter who’s made a name for himself with an unwarranted contract, they already have Adam Eaton. In Park, they have another pitcher to keep Clay Condrey from pitching in meaningful games and insurance against Durbin being overworked again in 2009. But at the price they paid, with incentives that could double the value of the contract, and Park’s age, the Phillies would have been better suited to sit this one out. The Phillies are already among the oldest teams in baseball with Matt Stairs, Jamie Moyer, Raul Ibanez, Methuselah, and Grandma Moses among the players certain to crack the 25-man roster, adding a marginally effective for one year reliever who doesn’t even have the hope of angling for another big contract was not the move to make.
Phillies projected Opening Day lineup, pitching rotation and bullpen:
SS Rollins
CF Victorino
LF Ibanez
1B Howard
RF Werth
3B Feliz/Dobbs
C Ruiz
2B Bruntlett/Donald
Pitcher
With Utley, Ibanez should drop to 5th in the Pat Burrell slot, Werth/Dobbs, Feliz, and Ruiz would drop down.
LHP Hamels
RHP Myers
LHP Moyer
RHP Blanton
LHP Happ/RHP Carrasco/RHP Eaton/RHP Kendrick
RHP Lidge
RHP Madson
LHP Romero
RHP Durbin
LHP Eyre
RHP Park
RHP Condrey
NY Mets Acquire RHP J.J. Putz, RHP Sean Green and OF Jeremy Reed from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for RHP Aaron Heilman, OF Endy Chavez, LHP Jason Vargas, INF Mike Carp, OF Ezequiel Carrera and RHP Maikel Cleto. The Mets also sent RHP Joe Smith to the Cleveland Indians to complete the trade.
The Mets swung a big deal the day they acquired K-Rod that gave them one of the best closers in baseball, and it certainly wasn’t the Rodriguez signing. In exchange for players that the Mets considered expendable (only Heilman being an impressive major league player at any point in his Mets career; Chavez is a decent defender, Smith was overrated), they landed an expensive setup man in J.J. Putz and a once-promising center fielder in Jeremy Reed.
The prospects they lost have some promise but are far from sure things – Carp is still only 22, but hit well in his second run through AA Binghamton, neither Carrera nor Cleto cracked Baseball America’s top 30 list for the Mets last year.
With apologies to C.C. Sabathia, Putz was baseball’s best pitcher in 2007 (or at least the most successful), even if he didn’t warrant the Cy Young, and he was nearly as good in 2006. 2008 was less successful, since Putz missed a chunk of the season with arm injuries and the Mariners floundered to become one of the worst teams in baseball. Still, Putz was respectable, bouncing back from a horrible start to post a 3.88 ERA. What’s more, his 2008 numbers resulted in part from a ludicrously high BABIP of .360 (that said, 2007’s numbers resulted from a .205 BABIP, so the real Putz is somewhere in between there two). In any event, even 2008 J.J. Putz should be closing, not Francisco Rodriguez.
Sean Green has not proven much as a right-handed reliever in the majors the last two years. He doesn’t strike batters out, he walks a fair number, and he couldn’t get lefties out at all in 2008. But, like Putz, his year-by-year numbers are less glaring, so it’s possible he could become a one-inning guy who pitches the 6th or 7th for the Mets.
Jeremy Reed was once projected to win multiple batting titles (thank you, Baseball Weekly), but has now been reveled as a Brian Anderson clone who can’t hit for any power, doesn’t hit for much of an average and isn’t even adept at stealing bases (19 steals in 37 career attempts). He doesn’t hit left-handers at all, and he doesn’t generate much against right-handed pitchers (.275/.330/.392 career against right-handed pitchers). He’ll likely fill the Endy Chavez role.
The deal should be a good one for the Mets, at least until it becomes clear whether Mike Carp can be an everyday first baseman in the Majors (particularly since the Mets will need a first baseman after Delgado’s contract runs out in 2009). Putz is locked down for 2009 with a team option for 2010, Green and Reed are league minimum players for now.
New York Mets acquire Connor Robertson from the Arizona Diamondbacks for Scott Schoeneweis
Schoeneweis became yet another scapegoat for problems that really reflected the incompetence of an entire bullpen. He’s hardly a dynamite reliever, he lacks strikeout punch and walks more than you’d like, but he’s also the kind of pitcher who has the potential to be effective for a long time, because his success isn’t premised on great stuff.
In exchange for Schoeneweis, the Mets landed Connor Robertson, who has a whopping 9 innings of major league experience and is now in his third organization in a span of 363 days. While the organization hopping is a bad sign, Robertson has shown tremendous strikeout potential in the minors, averaging over a strikeout an inning without showing any signs of control problems for much of his career. 2007, however, he walked a batter every two innings, which portends ill for the not-so-young right-hander (he’s 27 and will be 28 by the end of the 2009 season). After moving in leaps and bounds in his first few minor league seasons, Robertson has plateaued as a middling reliever in AAA, putting up ERAs of 4.35 and 5.02 respectively. He’s not likely to give up a lot of home runs and does a good job keeping his fastball down, but has enough trouble with singles and doubles that he’s not likely to be much more than a 12th man in the Mets bullpen in the foreseeable future.
Daniel Cabrera signs a one-year deal with the Washington Nationals
If you were a fan of pitching living along the Beltway and you could have chosen to drive to home games at either Camden Yards or Nationals Ballpark, you likely are no longer with us to read of this signing, having elected suicide rather than either road trip. So you wouldn't be here to shrug your shoulders, knowing that Daniel Cabrera, he of the electric stuff with absolutely no command is moving about 40 miles to the southwest.
Cabrera is no longer a player who projects well, he's worked with some impressive pitching coaches during his run as one of the least competent starters in the game with strikeout stuff. And the real news that is hidden by his lousy season in 2008 was that he didn't even strike batters out. After years of 157 and 166, Cabrera notched only 95 strikeouts in 180 innings. If it was because he was emphasizing control, it didn't show, since he still walked 90 batters in that span -- giving him a pathetic 1.05 K/BB ratio and a K/9 number of 4.75, down 2 1/2 strikeouts from 2007, which was itself down 2 from 2006. Cabrera managed 10 "quality starts" in 2008, but also managed 8 starts with 6 or more earned runs.
So, plummeting K rate, no control, wildly inconsistent...any upside? Not much. He's 27, so it may be that he's just going to hit his stride in 2008, but it'd be truly astonishing, considering that he's not a raw 27 -- he's already made 146 major league starts. He's got three pitches, but he can't locate them. He's never pitched in relief, so it's not clear whether he'd be able to transition to being a setup man. He has been pretty healthy, having started 64 games in the last two seasons, but any pitcher of his size is a risk for back problems as his career drags on.
Nationals Projected rotation:
LHP Lannan
RHP Balester
LHP Olsen
RHP Cabrera
RHP Martis/RHP Hill/RHP Bergmann
Florida Marlins sign Scott Proctor to a one year deal potentially worth $1 million
Apparently finding Joe Nelson too expensive (though he ultimately signed for a whopping $1.3 million), the Marlins signed a potential replacement from the Dodgers for a $750,000 base salary. Proctor was ineffective in 2008, largely because he simply walked too many batters. After showing good control in 2006, when he was overworked to the tune of 102 innings in 83 appearances for the Yankees, Proctor walked 44 in 95 innings in 2007 and then 24 in only 38 2/3 innings last year. With the wildness has come an increase in strikeouts, so it may just be a change in approach now that he’s no longer an everyday pitcher in the bullpen, but more likely the drop in role had to do with the shoddy performance.
There’s a good chance that Proctor won’t ever bounce back, plenty of pitchers have faded after being worked too hard, and two years of 90+ innings is a lot for a reliever these days. Last year he missed extended time with elbow issues in his throwing arm, and was ultimately left off the Dodgers’ playoff roster…which wasn’t exactly dripping with veteran pitchers. Proctor also gave up loads of home runs considering the cavernous park he called home in 2008; every time he took a mound outside of Los Angeles, the ball seemed to find the seats. The good news for the Marlins is that Dolphins Stadium is just about as pitcher-friendly. The bad news is that the Marlins have a schedule involving a shocking 81 road games in 2009.
To the extent he has value left, it comes from his ability to work solid innings rather than only pitch to right-handed batters. The batting average against Proctor over the course of his career is nearly dead even, with lefties batting .248 and right-handed batters batting .247 against him. This gives the Marlins an opportunity to fill out the 7th or 8th inning and gives them an alternative to lefty Leo Nunez and right-handed Logan Kensing, but they can’t consider it a particularly certain solution.
In all, the deal makes sense, at this point, even Gary Majewski is potentially getting $750,000, Proctor certainly will be better than Majewski if he can get his arm healthy. His September was promising, Proctor posted a WHIP of 1.00 and an ERA in 2.57 in his 8 September appearances, but the sample size and the fact that Proctor has always been overvalued by his biggest fan (Joe Torre) will keep him from being a tide-turner in the Marlins’ bullpen.
Showing posts with label Florida Marlins. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Florida Marlins. Show all posts
Thursday, January 1, 2009
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Thursday Trade Blitz; Gregg; Swisher; Damaso (not Andy) Marte re-signs
Deal:
The Chicago Cubs trade for ousted Marlins' closer Kevin Gregg, giving up relief pitching prospect Jose Ceda.
Analysis:
Kevin Gregg was an effective closer up until about August, when the wheels seemed to come off. Although he'd blown 4 saves in the first two months of the season, every one of those saves was a 1-run save. On July 3-4, Gregg blew two straight saves, allowing two runs in each appearance even at that, he settled in, but completely fell apart in August, compiling an ERA of 10.18 after ERAs of 2.51, 2.08, 2.38, and 2.92 in previous months. The Marlins pulled him from the closer's role and replaced him with Matt Lindstrom, who converted all five of his save opportunities.
Gregg improved by leaps and bounds once he got in Florida, and it looks at first glance like it was all traceable to his suddenly unhittable stuff, because batters went from hitting .278 and .280 his last two seasons with the Angels to .206 and .203 his two seasons in Florida. His home run rate dropped dramatically from 10 to 3 after two years in Miami. But, as fangraphs shows us, Gregg's resurgence probably has a lot more to do with good luck (or good team defense -- but in Florida, I'll assume it was luck) than great improvement as a pitcher.
Though his other numbers make it look like all is fine in Kevin Gregg-land, the sharp drop in his K rate indicates that Gregg may be in trouble. After striking out 1.03 an inning in 2007 to 0.84 K/IP, while his walk rate soared from an already career high 0.40 BB/IP in 2007 to a 0.54 BB/IP in 2008. This is a frightening combination, particularly for a pitcher who can be expected to allow more home runs in the Friendly Confines than in the pitcher-friendly confines of Dolphins Stadium. So there's good reason to believe the Cubs aren't getting a dynamite closer/setup man.
What did they give up? Jose Ceda, a 21 year-old fireballing prospect who compiled a 2.08 ERA in AA Tennessee last year. Ceda was rated as the #4 prospect in the Cubs' organization behind untouchable Josh Vitters, NL Rookie of the Year Geovany Soto, and outfielder Tyler Colvin (Ceda was rated ahead of players like Jeff Samardzija, Eric Patterson, and Sean Gallagher -- the latter two of whom were traded in the Rich Harden deal). Though Ceda struggled in the Florida State League, when he got to AA, he blew away hitters, striking out 42 in 30.1 innings. He has struggled with his control at times (31 BB in 46 IP at low-A Peoria in 2007 and about 0.50 BB/IP in A/AA ball last year) and has a tendency to gain weight (last year wavering between 247 and his now-listed 275 pounds).
It's hard to see how this deal makes sense for the Cubs. Only a couple days after making an astonishing deal for low-level prospects who couldn't contribute in the near future, Larry Beinfest makes a deal for a pitcher who's probably only a year away by dealing an overrated closer that seems to have gotten by on luck for the last two years. Gregg may be okay for the Cubs, but doesn't offer much more than was available on the free agent market for what Gregg will cost post-arbitration, and may offer less than Ceda might have in the Majors this year. And Ceda is only 21.
Now, the Cubs have announced that Kerry Wood won't be back. Don't worry about getting swept in the playoffs next year, Cubs fans. With this kind of management, you should finish about fourth.
Deal:
Damaso Marte re-signs with the Yankees for 3 years, $12 million.
Analysis:
I was surprised the Yankees didn't pick up Marte's $6 million option, but they got a potentially better deal by giving Marte a couple extra years.
Marte was an odd player last year thanks to some sample sizes, because lefties hit him considerably better than right-handers (this is not historically the case, however). He didn't pitch particularly well for the Yankees (5.40 ERA, 1.31 WHIP), but most of it could be attributed to a sudden spike in walks (10 in 18.1 innings for the Yankees after 16 in 46.2 IP for the Pirates). At $4 million per, Marte could be a good value and probably compares favorably to available left-handed relievers like Alan Embree and about even with Jeremy Affeldt (who signed for $4 million last year). While Dennys Reyes may have been available more cheaply, Marte has more upside and can fit a role beyond a left-handed specialist.
Deal:
Nick Swisher and Kanekoa Texeira are traded to the New York Yankees for Wilson Betemit, Jeff Marquez, and Jhonny Nunez.
Analysis:
Nick Swisher and Jhonny Nunez are the new chlamydia.
It seems like everyone in baseball goes to bed and wakes up with Nick Swisher, he of the legendary "Moneyball" draft where Billy Beane slandered players such as B.J. Upton, Scott Kazmir, Cole Hamels, and Prince Fielder (all, as you know, monumental failures) while drafting first-ballot Hall of Famer Jeremy Brown (at least I assume Golden Tee has a hall of fame) Swisher has been traded twice in the last calendar year and now joins the Yankees, possibly as a center fielder, possibly as a right fielder, and possibly as a first baseman.
Swisher was underwhelming in Chicago, with a .219 batting average, .742 OPS, 24 HR, 69 RBI in 153 games. He almost earned the photo on his MLB Player Card with a pitiful performance. (Note also the obviously superimposed Yankees cap). I've never been a fan of Swisher's, but he's been an adequate corner outfielder in the past. If he's the best the Yankees can do at first base, I'd be pretty astonished.
Kanekoa Texeira is not Mark Teixeira and is not a first baseman, and is not a bad-looking prospect. He served as a closer at high-A Winston-Salem and posted a sub-1.00 ERA before making the move to AA and posting a 2.01 in 22.1 IP there. He's still only 22, but his minor league numbers are impressive and he already has an accomplished slider. He wasn't a prospect in the top 30 for the White Sox according to Baseball America last year, but there's little doubt that was going to change.
The White Sox's biggest acquisition in this deal is Wilson Betemit. The White Sox have holes at every infield spot unless Konerko turns on again this year, so Betemit gives them a little versatility, but doesn't offer much in the way of offense or defense. His best positions appear to be third and first, the two spots that the White Sox seem to have filled with Josh Fields and Paul Konerko. He can play some at second base, but has never been a first option there.
2008 was Betemit's worst season, where he notched a whopping .289 OBP (how he slipped by Dayton Moore's trade radar, I'll never know), drawing 6 walks in 189 at bats. Once hyped as something of a 5-tool prospect, he now has only one recognizable tool that would separate him from the average 4A player, and that tool (power) is only marginal (10 HR is his career high, since no team has seen him fit to play everyday).
Jeff Marquez is a fallen prospect in the Yankees organization. A first round pick in the 2004 draft, Marquez pitched well at AA in 2007, but fell off sharply in AAA and watched his K rate decline even farther, striking out 33 in 80.2 IP. Marquez lives off his ability to throw strikes, but doubled his home run rate in 2008 (12 HR allowed in 80.1 after 11 HR allowed in 155 IP in 2007). For a sinkerballer, a rising home run rate is never encouraging. He's only 24, so another trip through AAA might help him learn to put away hitters, but his high-end projection doesn't seem particularly high. It's a strain to see him figuring in the White Sox rotation in the next couple of years.
Jhonny Nunez has faced more than his share of trades, having been traded to the Nationals from the Dodgers for Marlon Anderson, then being traded from the Nats to the Yankees for AG and Washington insider Alberto Gonzale(s)z. Now he's joining his fourth organization before he's spent a full season in AA. Nunez struggled as a starter at high-A Potomac in the extremely pitcher-friendly Carolina League, but excelled as a reliever in AA.
So why make this deal with Betemit as a centerpiece if you're the White Sox? My best guess is that the White Sox hate Jim Callis and his pristine Baseball America Prospect Handbook, which will identify Marquez as a Yankees prospect. Other than that, they achieve nothing -- they hurt their offense, don't make their team any younger, and fill no immediate needs, while removing an everyday player from their lineup in favor of Jerry Owens and Brian Anderson.
The Chicago Cubs trade for ousted Marlins' closer Kevin Gregg, giving up relief pitching prospect Jose Ceda.
Analysis:
Kevin Gregg was an effective closer up until about August, when the wheels seemed to come off. Although he'd blown 4 saves in the first two months of the season, every one of those saves was a 1-run save. On July 3-4, Gregg blew two straight saves, allowing two runs in each appearance even at that, he settled in, but completely fell apart in August, compiling an ERA of 10.18 after ERAs of 2.51, 2.08, 2.38, and 2.92 in previous months. The Marlins pulled him from the closer's role and replaced him with Matt Lindstrom, who converted all five of his save opportunities.
Gregg improved by leaps and bounds once he got in Florida, and it looks at first glance like it was all traceable to his suddenly unhittable stuff, because batters went from hitting .278 and .280 his last two seasons with the Angels to .206 and .203 his two seasons in Florida. His home run rate dropped dramatically from 10 to 3 after two years in Miami. But, as fangraphs shows us, Gregg's resurgence probably has a lot more to do with good luck (or good team defense -- but in Florida, I'll assume it was luck) than great improvement as a pitcher.
Though his other numbers make it look like all is fine in Kevin Gregg-land, the sharp drop in his K rate indicates that Gregg may be in trouble. After striking out 1.03 an inning in 2007 to 0.84 K/IP, while his walk rate soared from an already career high 0.40 BB/IP in 2007 to a 0.54 BB/IP in 2008. This is a frightening combination, particularly for a pitcher who can be expected to allow more home runs in the Friendly Confines than in the pitcher-friendly confines of Dolphins Stadium. So there's good reason to believe the Cubs aren't getting a dynamite closer/setup man.
What did they give up? Jose Ceda, a 21 year-old fireballing prospect who compiled a 2.08 ERA in AA Tennessee last year. Ceda was rated as the #4 prospect in the Cubs' organization behind untouchable Josh Vitters, NL Rookie of the Year Geovany Soto, and outfielder Tyler Colvin (Ceda was rated ahead of players like Jeff Samardzija, Eric Patterson, and Sean Gallagher -- the latter two of whom were traded in the Rich Harden deal). Though Ceda struggled in the Florida State League, when he got to AA, he blew away hitters, striking out 42 in 30.1 innings. He has struggled with his control at times (31 BB in 46 IP at low-A Peoria in 2007 and about 0.50 BB/IP in A/AA ball last year) and has a tendency to gain weight (last year wavering between 247 and his now-listed 275 pounds).
It's hard to see how this deal makes sense for the Cubs. Only a couple days after making an astonishing deal for low-level prospects who couldn't contribute in the near future, Larry Beinfest makes a deal for a pitcher who's probably only a year away by dealing an overrated closer that seems to have gotten by on luck for the last two years. Gregg may be okay for the Cubs, but doesn't offer much more than was available on the free agent market for what Gregg will cost post-arbitration, and may offer less than Ceda might have in the Majors this year. And Ceda is only 21.
Now, the Cubs have announced that Kerry Wood won't be back. Don't worry about getting swept in the playoffs next year, Cubs fans. With this kind of management, you should finish about fourth.
Deal:
Damaso Marte re-signs with the Yankees for 3 years, $12 million.
Analysis:
I was surprised the Yankees didn't pick up Marte's $6 million option, but they got a potentially better deal by giving Marte a couple extra years.
Marte was an odd player last year thanks to some sample sizes, because lefties hit him considerably better than right-handers (this is not historically the case, however). He didn't pitch particularly well for the Yankees (5.40 ERA, 1.31 WHIP), but most of it could be attributed to a sudden spike in walks (10 in 18.1 innings for the Yankees after 16 in 46.2 IP for the Pirates). At $4 million per, Marte could be a good value and probably compares favorably to available left-handed relievers like Alan Embree and about even with Jeremy Affeldt (who signed for $4 million last year). While Dennys Reyes may have been available more cheaply, Marte has more upside and can fit a role beyond a left-handed specialist.
Deal:
Nick Swisher and Kanekoa Texeira are traded to the New York Yankees for Wilson Betemit, Jeff Marquez, and Jhonny Nunez.
Analysis:
Nick Swisher and Jhonny Nunez are the new chlamydia.
It seems like everyone in baseball goes to bed and wakes up with Nick Swisher, he of the legendary "Moneyball" draft where Billy Beane slandered players such as B.J. Upton, Scott Kazmir, Cole Hamels, and Prince Fielder (all, as you know, monumental failures) while drafting first-ballot Hall of Famer Jeremy Brown (at least I assume Golden Tee has a hall of fame) Swisher has been traded twice in the last calendar year and now joins the Yankees, possibly as a center fielder, possibly as a right fielder, and possibly as a first baseman.
Swisher was underwhelming in Chicago, with a .219 batting average, .742 OPS, 24 HR, 69 RBI in 153 games. He almost earned the photo on his MLB Player Card with a pitiful performance. (Note also the obviously superimposed Yankees cap). I've never been a fan of Swisher's, but he's been an adequate corner outfielder in the past. If he's the best the Yankees can do at first base, I'd be pretty astonished.
Kanekoa Texeira is not Mark Teixeira and is not a first baseman, and is not a bad-looking prospect. He served as a closer at high-A Winston-Salem and posted a sub-1.00 ERA before making the move to AA and posting a 2.01 in 22.1 IP there. He's still only 22, but his minor league numbers are impressive and he already has an accomplished slider. He wasn't a prospect in the top 30 for the White Sox according to Baseball America last year, but there's little doubt that was going to change.
The White Sox's biggest acquisition in this deal is Wilson Betemit. The White Sox have holes at every infield spot unless Konerko turns on again this year, so Betemit gives them a little versatility, but doesn't offer much in the way of offense or defense. His best positions appear to be third and first, the two spots that the White Sox seem to have filled with Josh Fields and Paul Konerko. He can play some at second base, but has never been a first option there.
2008 was Betemit's worst season, where he notched a whopping .289 OBP (how he slipped by Dayton Moore's trade radar, I'll never know), drawing 6 walks in 189 at bats. Once hyped as something of a 5-tool prospect, he now has only one recognizable tool that would separate him from the average 4A player, and that tool (power) is only marginal (10 HR is his career high, since no team has seen him fit to play everyday).
Jeff Marquez is a fallen prospect in the Yankees organization. A first round pick in the 2004 draft, Marquez pitched well at AA in 2007, but fell off sharply in AAA and watched his K rate decline even farther, striking out 33 in 80.2 IP. Marquez lives off his ability to throw strikes, but doubled his home run rate in 2008 (12 HR allowed in 80.1 after 11 HR allowed in 155 IP in 2007). For a sinkerballer, a rising home run rate is never encouraging. He's only 24, so another trip through AAA might help him learn to put away hitters, but his high-end projection doesn't seem particularly high. It's a strain to see him figuring in the White Sox rotation in the next couple of years.
Jhonny Nunez has faced more than his share of trades, having been traded to the Nationals from the Dodgers for Marlon Anderson, then being traded from the Nats to the Yankees for AG and Washington insider Alberto Gonzale(s)z. Now he's joining his fourth organization before he's spent a full season in AA. Nunez struggled as a starter at high-A Potomac in the extremely pitcher-friendly Carolina League, but excelled as a reliever in AA.
So why make this deal with Betemit as a centerpiece if you're the White Sox? My best guess is that the White Sox hate Jim Callis and his pristine Baseball America Prospect Handbook, which will identify Marquez as a Yankees prospect. Other than that, they achieve nothing -- they hurt their offense, don't make their team any younger, and fill no immediate needs, while removing an everyday player from their lineup in favor of Jerry Owens and Brian Anderson.
Monday, November 10, 2008
Monday Trade Blitz -- Matt Holliday, Huston Street, Scott Olsen, Josh Willingham
Two deals have purportedly gone down, neither of which makes a whole heck of a lot of sense.
Reported Deal #1
Matt Holliday is traded from the Rockies to the A's for a group of players reportedly including Greg Smith, Carlos Gonzalez, and Huston Street.
Billy Beane does it again, swindling...oh wait. He traded a quality starting pitcher, an average closer, and one of last year's top prospects for a bat that's had one great season away from Coors Field.
Greg Smith was not a great pitcher and unlikely to become one with a marginal K rate. But he was the best starter the A's had in 2008 aside from Duchscherer, whose frequent injuries make him unreliable at best. Carlos Gonzalez had a disappointing 2008, showing little power in Oakland, and Huston Street lost his job as a closer to the astounding debut season of Brad Ziegler. Street's definitely the best player in the deal, considering Gonzalez's woeful OBP and lack of power and Smith's uncertainty, but the package isn't insignificant.
Matt Holliday is a player who's hard to read. His career numbers away from Coors Field are barely better than adequate, although he put up a good OPS last year. But he's a player who has benefited a lot from Coors Field and is now plopped into a potent pitcher's park. Holliday only mustered 25 home runs last year, but he did show a surge of speed (swiping 28 bases in 30 attempts).
Analysis:
The Rockies get the better end of this deal. The Cardinals' deal fell apart, the Phillies seemed an unlikely contender for the deal, and the Rockies get a pitcher who will fill out their rotation, a would-be closer to replace Brian Fuentes (or, more likely, trade bait of their own that could land another major league ready player), and an outfielder who is only a year removed from being one of the Top 25 prospects in major league baseball. The A's get a player who is a good hitter, but may not be much more than good removed from Coors Field, but is guaranteed to be beyond the A's current price range at the end of this season. And with the lineup they have around Holliday and the prospect-dependent pitching staff, the A's seem extraordinarily unlikely to contend for anything this season. Billy Beane is apparently counting on a mighty fine draft pick to come of Matt Holliday when he signs elsewhere.
Reported Deal # 2:
Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham are traded from the Marlins to the Nationals for Emilio Bonifacio, P.J. Dean and possibly infielder Jake Smolinski.
Olsen is probably around a major league average starter, one who represents a relatively substantial upgrade from anyone the Nationals have slotted in their current rotation. His 2007 was a bad season, but 2006 and 2008 were both respectable. He's been a durable starter. Willingham, on the other hand, is a good hitter, but has serious durability issues.
Bonifacio is a light-hitting second baseman who had shown some stolen base prowess in the minors, but didn't flash that kind of ability in his run with the Nationals. He will be little more than a utility man for the Marlins unless they should make a surprising trade of Dan Uggla in the near future. The other players are still unproven, with Baseball America projecting Smolinski as the #11 prospect in the relatively barren Nationals organization (as an outfielder) and Dean as the #30 prospect last season.
Analysis:
I would have thought the Marlins certainly could have gotten more for Olsen -- I had concocted a deal with the Indians to send Kevin Gregg and Scott Olsen to the Tribe for Kelly Shoppach and an outfielder like Franklin Gutierrez, Nick Weglarz, or John Drennen. Instead, they get no one who can play a meaningful role on their team in the next two or three years. Bonifacio may be a useful piece, but he's little more than that.
As improbable as it is that Jim Bowden came out ahead on a deal with Beinfest, the Nationals seem to have fared well here. Olsen is a stabilizing force that gives the Nationals a second solid left-handed starter in their rotation. Willingham is an offensive upgrade from Austin Kearns last year, but a huge defensive regression and his career numbers are roughly equivalent to Kearns' career totals. With Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena under contract in the outfield, a move seems to be imminent, although it's possible that Willingham could move to 1B and fill a substantial hole for the Nationals, who were also rumored to be interested in Adam Dunn (who has expressed his discontent with playing 1B in the past and would almost certainly frown on a deal involving his friend Kearns -- whose contract and injury prone 2008 makes him hard to move anyway). If Willingham can play first, freeing up Ronnie Belliard to play second, the Nationals have a shockingly serviceable lineup until the plague of injuries begins to beset them.
Reported Deal #1
Matt Holliday is traded from the Rockies to the A's for a group of players reportedly including Greg Smith, Carlos Gonzalez, and Huston Street.
Billy Beane does it again, swindling...oh wait. He traded a quality starting pitcher, an average closer, and one of last year's top prospects for a bat that's had one great season away from Coors Field.
Greg Smith was not a great pitcher and unlikely to become one with a marginal K rate. But he was the best starter the A's had in 2008 aside from Duchscherer, whose frequent injuries make him unreliable at best. Carlos Gonzalez had a disappointing 2008, showing little power in Oakland, and Huston Street lost his job as a closer to the astounding debut season of Brad Ziegler. Street's definitely the best player in the deal, considering Gonzalez's woeful OBP and lack of power and Smith's uncertainty, but the package isn't insignificant.
Matt Holliday is a player who's hard to read. His career numbers away from Coors Field are barely better than adequate, although he put up a good OPS last year. But he's a player who has benefited a lot from Coors Field and is now plopped into a potent pitcher's park. Holliday only mustered 25 home runs last year, but he did show a surge of speed (swiping 28 bases in 30 attempts).
Analysis:
The Rockies get the better end of this deal. The Cardinals' deal fell apart, the Phillies seemed an unlikely contender for the deal, and the Rockies get a pitcher who will fill out their rotation, a would-be closer to replace Brian Fuentes (or, more likely, trade bait of their own that could land another major league ready player), and an outfielder who is only a year removed from being one of the Top 25 prospects in major league baseball. The A's get a player who is a good hitter, but may not be much more than good removed from Coors Field, but is guaranteed to be beyond the A's current price range at the end of this season. And with the lineup they have around Holliday and the prospect-dependent pitching staff, the A's seem extraordinarily unlikely to contend for anything this season. Billy Beane is apparently counting on a mighty fine draft pick to come of Matt Holliday when he signs elsewhere.
Reported Deal # 2:
Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham are traded from the Marlins to the Nationals for Emilio Bonifacio, P.J. Dean and possibly infielder Jake Smolinski.
Olsen is probably around a major league average starter, one who represents a relatively substantial upgrade from anyone the Nationals have slotted in their current rotation. His 2007 was a bad season, but 2006 and 2008 were both respectable. He's been a durable starter. Willingham, on the other hand, is a good hitter, but has serious durability issues.
Bonifacio is a light-hitting second baseman who had shown some stolen base prowess in the minors, but didn't flash that kind of ability in his run with the Nationals. He will be little more than a utility man for the Marlins unless they should make a surprising trade of Dan Uggla in the near future. The other players are still unproven, with Baseball America projecting Smolinski as the #11 prospect in the relatively barren Nationals organization (as an outfielder) and Dean as the #30 prospect last season.
Analysis:
I would have thought the Marlins certainly could have gotten more for Olsen -- I had concocted a deal with the Indians to send Kevin Gregg and Scott Olsen to the Tribe for Kelly Shoppach and an outfielder like Franklin Gutierrez, Nick Weglarz, or John Drennen. Instead, they get no one who can play a meaningful role on their team in the next two or three years. Bonifacio may be a useful piece, but he's little more than that.
As improbable as it is that Jim Bowden came out ahead on a deal with Beinfest, the Nationals seem to have fared well here. Olsen is a stabilizing force that gives the Nationals a second solid left-handed starter in their rotation. Willingham is an offensive upgrade from Austin Kearns last year, but a huge defensive regression and his career numbers are roughly equivalent to Kearns' career totals. With Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena under contract in the outfield, a move seems to be imminent, although it's possible that Willingham could move to 1B and fill a substantial hole for the Nationals, who were also rumored to be interested in Adam Dunn (who has expressed his discontent with playing 1B in the past and would almost certainly frown on a deal involving his friend Kearns -- whose contract and injury prone 2008 makes him hard to move anyway). If Willingham can play first, freeing up Ronnie Belliard to play second, the Nationals have a shockingly serviceable lineup until the plague of injuries begins to beset them.
Friday, November 7, 2008
NL East: Offseason Outlook
Offseason outlook:
Philadelphia Phillies
I'll start with the 2008 World Champions, since I still can't believe that's a description of the Phillies, and because it's the team I'm the major league club I'm most familiar with (through little more than proximity). The Phillies have a few free agents on their roster. Jamie Moyer, Pat Burrell, Scott Eyre, So Taguchi, Tom Gordon, Rudy Seanez, and Taduhito Iguchi are all in a position to leave the club.
Most likely to return: Moyer is a near lock, given that his other real hope would be to return to the Mariners, who really need to get younger and turn their team around. Burrell was given a blow-off with the 2 year, $22 million offer, so although I was confident he'd be back, I no longer feel that the Phillies have a genuine interest in keeping him.
Most likely to leave: Taguchi can't offer the Phillies anything, having failed as a defensive replacement and been replaced by Eric Bruntlett in the regular season and the playoffs. He's probably done as a major leaguer and rumors have already begun that he'll be in Japan next year.
Prospect on the rise: Maybe it's just me, but I would be extremely surprised to see Lou Marson open the season in the minor leagues. He showed a solid bat at Reading (.849 OPS) and it makes sense to get him major league experience while the team still has its core intact, lest you need him to contribute from day one. It's certainly possible that the Phillies put him in AAA in the '09 season and keep Coste at the # 2 spot, and even possible that the Phillies simply carry Coste as a super sub who can fill in at catcher, first base, third base, or the corner outfield spots, but Manuel's not shown a willingness to carry three catchers. The only other prospects I envision seeing in Philadelphia are Jason Donald (Sept. '09 -- earlier if a middle infielder gets injured), Carrasco
Non-tender candidates: Chris Coste. I hope it's not going to happen, but Charlie Manuel made it abundantly clear he favored Ruiz, starting him in every playoff game. With Marson in the wings, a 35-year-old backup catcher is relatively expendable, even if he's a better hitter than most. There may be a trade market for Coste, who would seemingly fit in well with a number of clubs, particularly the Reds, but I feel that if a trade doesn't get done, Coste will probably be non-tendered.
Needs: Pat Burrell? The team needs a right-handed hitting outfielder, though they're unlikely to shell out much for one since they're locked in to a big contract with Geoff Jenkins and still have Matt Stairs under contract for next year. Best case for the Phillies is that Stairs elects to retire, but if he's thinking about it, he's not saying so. That'd free up a roster spot that could be used for a right-handed platoon option to pair with Jenkins, if the Phillies do let Burrell walk. If they fill it from within, they're counting on Greg Golson to develop as a hitter in a hurry.
The Phillies could use a dependable starting pitcher, but have a lot of # 6 starter types and there's always the lingering possibility that Madson gets moved into the rotation. Short of Derek Lowe falling through every crack or some way-below-market deal for an injury prone pitcher like Ben Sheets, it's unlikely the Phillies land another starter to join Kendrick/Happ/Eaton in the mix. Carlos Carrasco is on the horizon, so it probably makes sense to let Happ/Kendrick try to show what they can and give Carrasco a shot at mid-season if the available options aren't there.
Injuries that figure in 2009: The Phillies' bullpen has a lot more options returning because Scott Mathieson and Mike Zagurski both missed the entire 2008 season with injuries. Zagurski gives them the winner of the Scott Eyre-lookalike contest, Mathieson has long been a prospect in the organization, but has been beset by injuries. Pedro Feliz missed time with a balky back in the late season, and that isn't likely an injury we've heard the last from.
Free agent ceiling: The Phillies have made loads of extra money from the playoff run, but aren't likely to be a big player on the free agent market given the arbitration raises that will go to Ryan Howard and others. Their top free agent target would likely be a Pat Burrell/Adam Dunn type in the range of $13-14 million a season, and the Phillies have already shown a reluctance to pay that much. There are rumors that the Phillies are interested in Manny Ramirez, but I really have a hard time giving them any credence, and I don't think Manny Ramirez would be content to play in Philadelphia in any event.
New York Mets
The Mets fell short again in 2007, despite bringing in the second-best pitcher in baseball, only to get eclipsed by the team that acquired the best pitcher in baseball (I'm passing the torch). The Mets are an old team, but they face a lot of potential changes in 2009, with a large number of free agents: Oliver Perez, Moises Alou, Luis Ayala, Damion Easley, Tony Armas, Orlando Hernandez, Pedro Martinez, Ramon Martinez, Ricardo Rincon, Al Reyes, Trot Nixon, Brady Clark and Matt Wise.
Most likely to return: Oliver Perez was relatively reliable for the Mets, is going to be pretty pricey on the open market and has a questionable Type A status that would cause 15 teams to lose a first round pick to sign an erratic starter. I'd guess that Easley is probable to return as well.
Most likely to leave: Everybody else. The Mets may hold on to Luis Ayala, who they trusted for about a week after acquiring him, but most of the free agents are guys who missed much (or all) of last season or didn't play a meaningful role in 2008.
Prospect on the rise: Daniel Murphy made a significant splash in 2008 as the Mets tried to push their way to the playoffs with a makeshift outfield. He's likely to start in 2009 at either left field or second base. Jon Niese is likely to crash the Mets' rotation, but didn't fare well in his cameo. Fernando Martinez is still on the horizon, but doesn't seem like a major factor in the Mets' hopes for 2009.
Non-tender candidates: For legal reasons, Ambiorix Burgos may get non-tendered, but I'd doubt it, considering what the Mets gave up for him. Not a non-tender, but a release, might be the situation facing Luis Castillo, but, again, considering the Mets' financial commitment, they should probably keep Castillo around in case Murphy doesn't transition to second successfully.
Needs: Corner outfielders, second base, starting pitching and relief pitching. The Mets need everything that's not Johan Santana, Carlos Beltran, David Wright, Jose Reyes, and possibly Carlos Delgado (who sure looked finished until late May) and Ryan Church (who looked solid in RF when he played, which wasn't all that often). They could use a better catching tandem as well, but aren't likely to move there with the glut of needs they already have.
Injuries that figure in 2009: John Maine's shoulder may determine whether the Mets have a solid rotation in 2009. Santana is still dominating, Mike Pelfrey put together a strong season, and Oliver Perez could return as a free agent, giving the Mets a decent trio of starters, but if John Maine can get healthy and stay healthy, the Mets are infinitely more likely to contend for a playoff berth in 2006. Billy Wagner is out for '09 and has likely finished his Mets career.
Free agent ceiling: Simply put, there isn't one. While there are organizational reasons that the Mets would likely not chase C.C. Sabathia and pursue Manny Ramirez or Francisco Rodriguez (read either: the Mets are a poorly run organization or Minaya's renowned bias for Latin players), the Mets have money to spend and will clear $26 million off their books next year just through Orlando Hernandez, Moises Alou, and Pedro Martinez leaving or accepting considerably less money to return.
Florida Marlins
The Marlins have only a few major league free agents (and no real minor league FAs of note): Luis Gonzalez, Mark Hendrickson, Paul LoDuca, and Arthur Rhodes.
Most likely to return: LoDuca is unlikely to have any other suitors, so he may stay afloat with a minor league deal in Florida. I wouldn't hold my breath that any will return.
Most likely to leave: Rhodes was effective enough that he'll have one more year in the majors, but as a free agent who will be paid in real dollars, it seems pretty unlikely that it'd be in Florida.
Prospect on the rise: Cameron Maybin may be destined for the centerfield job this year, a year after most people thought he'd find his way into the Marlins' lineup. He showed he was ready in September and will certainly be a hyped rookie of the year candidate in 2009. Gaby Sanchez is now the heir apparent to the first base job with Jacobs shipped out. Brett Carroll is another hitter on the verge of the majors, but will likely only get a shot if Maybin fails to land a job.
Non-tender candidates: The Marlins will likely move several candidates for arbitration, including Kevin Gregg and Scott Olsen. If they can't find trading partners, I'd say there's about a 30-40% chance they'd non-tender Kevin Gregg, with whom they grew dissatisfied in the latter half of last year. But, this being baseball, where there's perpetually a need for anyone who's saved games with any success (and Gregg was superb until about a week before the All-Star break), the scenario is unlikely to present itself. Gregg's probably bound for Detroit, St. Louis, Cleveland, or even conceivably the NY Mets, Olsen will go to whoever the Marlins feel offers the best return (the Rangers have been mentioned numerous times, but I could see a package from the Indians centered around Kelly Shoppach and a corner outfielder (possibly Franklin Gutierrez) that would brnig back Olsen and Gregg.)
Needs: Catching and relief pitching, possibly another outfielder. Adding Leo Nunez gives the Marlins another young reliever to throw at the wall in the hopes that someone will stick, but it's still a bullpen composed of young and inexperienced relievers like Matt Lindstrom, Joe Nelson, and Renyel Pinto as the grizzled veterans. Adding a David Weathers or Jeremy Affeldt type would be the kind of move that would really make this a dangerous team, but is unlikely. The catching in Florida was a hole in 2008, although John Baker proved a useful Chris Coste-like stopgap who brutalized the Phillies last season. The Marlins have a couple prospects in CF in Maybin and Carroll that should keep them from using Cody Ross or Alfredo Amezaga as an everyday CF, but I wouldn't rule out acquiring another outfielder who could play in the corners.
Injuries that figure in 2009: Anibal Sanchez came back from labrum surgery in 2009, but never showed much effectiveness or durability. His continued recovery is the key to the rotation. Josh Johnson's rapid recovery from Tommy John was impressive, but he needs to maintain his effectiveness. Josh Willingham has been injury prone during his time in the majors, and he will need to stay healthy to keep Cody Ross from having to play left field every day -- which is a best case scenario asssuming that Maybin can hold the CF job.
Free agent ceiling: Casey Blake would be about as highly rated a player as I could envision the Marlins pursuing, and even that's something of a stretch. That said, they did sign Hanley Ramirez to a long-term deal, and Blake would be a useful player in LF, RF, 3B, and 1B for a team that's got question marks at those spots.
Atlanta Braves
The mish-mash of Braves' free agents has a couple hall of famers and an assorted cast of journeymen: Elmer Dessens, Tom Glavine, Mike Hampton, Jorge Julio, Corky Miller, Greg Norton, Will Ohman, John Smoltz, Julian Tavarez
Most likely to return: John Smoltz seems the most likely to return since he's played in Atlanta his entire career. If he returns, I'd believe it'd be to the Braves, since the Tigers aren't likely to make a play for his services a year after finishing last in the AL Central. Will Ohman is a valuable reliever and I'd guess the Braves will make a play to keep him, but he may find more money elsewhere after an 83-appearance season in Atlanta.
Most likely to leave: Dessens would be an obvious choice, but not even rabid Braves fans likely noticed his 4 game stint with the Braves, so my pick is Tavarez, who will probably have to settle for a bottom of the line contract from a bottom-budget team after getting rocked by both right and left-handed batters in 2008. He'll probably muster a minor league contract from a club like the Pirates or Royals who are trying to build bullpens on the cheap, but not much in the way of major league interest.
Prospect on the rise: Tommy Hanson is one of the most talked-about minor league prospects right now, and his name keeps surfacing around Peavy discussions as a player Frank Wren won't deal for Peavy. He is probably a year away, but with Brent Lillibridge and Jordan Schafer losing their footing in 2008, it's hard to see another Brave who's going to make an impact in 2009.
Non-tender candidates: I'm not seeing any.
Needs: Healthy arms and an outfielder with power. For as bad as the Braves were in 2008, they've actually proven to have a good offensive strategy outside of Jeff Francouer. Gregor Blanco hit a lousy .251, but still mustered an OBP of .366. Yunel Escobar batted .288 with an OBP of .366, and the Braves ended up 5th in the majors with an OBP of .354, and their power wasn't dreadful (slg. of .408, 20th in the majors). But for a team with no power, the Braves were astonishingly unable to steal bases (58 in 85 attempts, 28th in the majors). That doesn't lead to run production. The Braves need at least two starters behind Jair Jurrjens, Tim Hudson, and Jorge Campillo.
Injuries that figure in 2009: Smoltz and Glavine may not be able to pitch anywhere in 2009 because of injuries, but if they can, it'd probably be in Atlanta (Glavine has said he wouldn't pitch anywhere else). Chipper Jones was limited for much of last season by shoulder tendinitis, and with his history of injuries, it's hard to imagine it's the last time we've heard of this injury. Unless Kotchman really shows up, Chipper may be playing first base by the end of 2009.
Free agent ceiling: There's rumors floating around that Rafael Furcal may be on the horizon for the Braves. I could see them spending that kind of money, but Furcal would make little sense for a team that's loaded with serviceable/borderline-starter middle infielders like Omar Infante, Martin Prado, Yunel Escobar, and Kelly Johnson. I could see the Braves making a play for Ryan Dempster, Ben Sheets, Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, or Bobby Abreu.
Washington Nationals
The Nationals began their free agency period early by attempting to option a number of players to AAA: Chad Cordero, Pete Orr, Ryan Wagner, and Ryan Langerhans. Odalis Perez and Aaron Boone are the only players listed as major league free agents.
Most likely to return: Odalis Perez may be hard-pressed to find a multi-year deal anywhere else, considering how he performed after signing his deal in Los Angeles. While he could probably find one-year deals
Most likely to leave: Cordero's obviously gone and would make a lot of sense for teams like Cleveland or St. Louis, who need bullpen help, but don't want to pay for Brian Fuentes or Francisco Rodriguez. Cordero's not of the same caliber and has some injury questions, but he's been mostly successful in his career and will probably be available at some point in 2009. He's not a player to depend upon, but he could be a useful player to cushion the blow if closers like Jensen Lewis or Chris Perez falter.
Prospect on the rise: Ross Detwiler is still likely a ways from the Majors after playing last year at A ball, but the Nationals have pushed him into the Majors before (for one appearance in September 2007). He could enter the mix for the rotation and, with Balester, give the Nationals a pair of meaningful prospects. Roger Bernadina is hardly a top-end prospect, but he's got a good shot to take over an outfield spot and lead off for the Nationals in 2009. If he doesn't, DC-area native Justin Maxwell may very well win the job. Neither has much of a chance to produce big numbers in the majors, but this is the best Washington's system has. Luke Montz may get a shot to back up Jesus Flores in 2009, but isn't likely to do much more than Wil Nieves.
Non-tender candidates: The Nationals are cutting ties with Chad Cordero, having already announced their intention to non-tender the team's longest tenured player. As much as they no longer wish to pay Austin Kearns or Wily Mo Pena, they're locked into the contracts now.
Needs: Starting pitching, relief pitching, first base, second base, a corner outfielder who can stay healthy. The saddest thing is that I'm surprised it's this few positions. The Nationals got better than expected production from Cristian Guzman, who's still likely to suffer injuries in 2009 but were snakebit with injuries to Ryan Zimmerman and Lastings Milledge. The pitching cupboard isn't bare with John Lannan and the occasionally effective Colin Balester, but only Lannan's a lock for the 2009 rotation. That's never a good sign.
Injuries that figure in 2009: To be announced. With Cristian Guzman and Austin Kearns penciled into the lineup, it's a matter of time. Nick Johnson is expected to miss 2009 with a hangnail, after missing 2008 with a torn ulnar ligament in his wrist.
Free agent ceiling: Adam Dunn is exactly what Jim Bowden looks for -- a former Cincinnati Red. There's been talk of Dunn joining the Nats since his best friend (Austin Kearns) was traded in '06, and with the apparently tepid response to him in the July trade market and now in the rumor mill, it is completely plausible that he could end up in Washington if he thinks they'll leave him in LF.
Philadelphia Phillies
I'll start with the 2008 World Champions, since I still can't believe that's a description of the Phillies, and because it's the team I'm the major league club I'm most familiar with (through little more than proximity). The Phillies have a few free agents on their roster. Jamie Moyer, Pat Burrell, Scott Eyre, So Taguchi, Tom Gordon, Rudy Seanez, and Taduhito Iguchi are all in a position to leave the club.
Most likely to return: Moyer is a near lock, given that his other real hope would be to return to the Mariners, who really need to get younger and turn their team around. Burrell was given a blow-off with the 2 year, $22 million offer, so although I was confident he'd be back, I no longer feel that the Phillies have a genuine interest in keeping him.
Most likely to leave: Taguchi can't offer the Phillies anything, having failed as a defensive replacement and been replaced by Eric Bruntlett in the regular season and the playoffs. He's probably done as a major leaguer and rumors have already begun that he'll be in Japan next year.
Prospect on the rise: Maybe it's just me, but I would be extremely surprised to see Lou Marson open the season in the minor leagues. He showed a solid bat at Reading (.849 OPS) and it makes sense to get him major league experience while the team still has its core intact, lest you need him to contribute from day one. It's certainly possible that the Phillies put him in AAA in the '09 season and keep Coste at the # 2 spot, and even possible that the Phillies simply carry Coste as a super sub who can fill in at catcher, first base, third base, or the corner outfield spots, but Manuel's not shown a willingness to carry three catchers. The only other prospects I envision seeing in Philadelphia are Jason Donald (Sept. '09 -- earlier if a middle infielder gets injured), Carrasco
Non-tender candidates: Chris Coste. I hope it's not going to happen, but Charlie Manuel made it abundantly clear he favored Ruiz, starting him in every playoff game. With Marson in the wings, a 35-year-old backup catcher is relatively expendable, even if he's a better hitter than most. There may be a trade market for Coste, who would seemingly fit in well with a number of clubs, particularly the Reds, but I feel that if a trade doesn't get done, Coste will probably be non-tendered.
Needs: Pat Burrell? The team needs a right-handed hitting outfielder, though they're unlikely to shell out much for one since they're locked in to a big contract with Geoff Jenkins and still have Matt Stairs under contract for next year. Best case for the Phillies is that Stairs elects to retire, but if he's thinking about it, he's not saying so. That'd free up a roster spot that could be used for a right-handed platoon option to pair with Jenkins, if the Phillies do let Burrell walk. If they fill it from within, they're counting on Greg Golson to develop as a hitter in a hurry.
The Phillies could use a dependable starting pitcher, but have a lot of # 6 starter types and there's always the lingering possibility that Madson gets moved into the rotation. Short of Derek Lowe falling through every crack or some way-below-market deal for an injury prone pitcher like Ben Sheets, it's unlikely the Phillies land another starter to join Kendrick/Happ/Eaton in the mix. Carlos Carrasco is on the horizon, so it probably makes sense to let Happ/Kendrick try to show what they can and give Carrasco a shot at mid-season if the available options aren't there.
Injuries that figure in 2009: The Phillies' bullpen has a lot more options returning because Scott Mathieson and Mike Zagurski both missed the entire 2008 season with injuries. Zagurski gives them the winner of the Scott Eyre-lookalike contest, Mathieson has long been a prospect in the organization, but has been beset by injuries. Pedro Feliz missed time with a balky back in the late season, and that isn't likely an injury we've heard the last from.
Free agent ceiling: The Phillies have made loads of extra money from the playoff run, but aren't likely to be a big player on the free agent market given the arbitration raises that will go to Ryan Howard and others. Their top free agent target would likely be a Pat Burrell/Adam Dunn type in the range of $13-14 million a season, and the Phillies have already shown a reluctance to pay that much. There are rumors that the Phillies are interested in Manny Ramirez, but I really have a hard time giving them any credence, and I don't think Manny Ramirez would be content to play in Philadelphia in any event.
New York Mets
The Mets fell short again in 2007, despite bringing in the second-best pitcher in baseball, only to get eclipsed by the team that acquired the best pitcher in baseball (I'm passing the torch). The Mets are an old team, but they face a lot of potential changes in 2009, with a large number of free agents: Oliver Perez, Moises Alou, Luis Ayala, Damion Easley, Tony Armas, Orlando Hernandez, Pedro Martinez, Ramon Martinez, Ricardo Rincon, Al Reyes, Trot Nixon, Brady Clark and Matt Wise.
Most likely to return: Oliver Perez was relatively reliable for the Mets, is going to be pretty pricey on the open market and has a questionable Type A status that would cause 15 teams to lose a first round pick to sign an erratic starter. I'd guess that Easley is probable to return as well.
Most likely to leave: Everybody else. The Mets may hold on to Luis Ayala, who they trusted for about a week after acquiring him, but most of the free agents are guys who missed much (or all) of last season or didn't play a meaningful role in 2008.
Prospect on the rise: Daniel Murphy made a significant splash in 2008 as the Mets tried to push their way to the playoffs with a makeshift outfield. He's likely to start in 2009 at either left field or second base. Jon Niese is likely to crash the Mets' rotation, but didn't fare well in his cameo. Fernando Martinez is still on the horizon, but doesn't seem like a major factor in the Mets' hopes for 2009.
Non-tender candidates: For legal reasons, Ambiorix Burgos may get non-tendered, but I'd doubt it, considering what the Mets gave up for him. Not a non-tender, but a release, might be the situation facing Luis Castillo, but, again, considering the Mets' financial commitment, they should probably keep Castillo around in case Murphy doesn't transition to second successfully.
Needs: Corner outfielders, second base, starting pitching and relief pitching. The Mets need everything that's not Johan Santana, Carlos Beltran, David Wright, Jose Reyes, and possibly Carlos Delgado (who sure looked finished until late May) and Ryan Church (who looked solid in RF when he played, which wasn't all that often). They could use a better catching tandem as well, but aren't likely to move there with the glut of needs they already have.
Injuries that figure in 2009: John Maine's shoulder may determine whether the Mets have a solid rotation in 2009. Santana is still dominating, Mike Pelfrey put together a strong season, and Oliver Perez could return as a free agent, giving the Mets a decent trio of starters, but if John Maine can get healthy and stay healthy, the Mets are infinitely more likely to contend for a playoff berth in 2006. Billy Wagner is out for '09 and has likely finished his Mets career.
Free agent ceiling: Simply put, there isn't one. While there are organizational reasons that the Mets would likely not chase C.C. Sabathia and pursue Manny Ramirez or Francisco Rodriguez (read either: the Mets are a poorly run organization or Minaya's renowned bias for Latin players), the Mets have money to spend and will clear $26 million off their books next year just through Orlando Hernandez, Moises Alou, and Pedro Martinez leaving or accepting considerably less money to return.
Florida Marlins
The Marlins have only a few major league free agents (and no real minor league FAs of note): Luis Gonzalez, Mark Hendrickson, Paul LoDuca, and Arthur Rhodes.
Most likely to return: LoDuca is unlikely to have any other suitors, so he may stay afloat with a minor league deal in Florida. I wouldn't hold my breath that any will return.
Most likely to leave: Rhodes was effective enough that he'll have one more year in the majors, but as a free agent who will be paid in real dollars, it seems pretty unlikely that it'd be in Florida.
Prospect on the rise: Cameron Maybin may be destined for the centerfield job this year, a year after most people thought he'd find his way into the Marlins' lineup. He showed he was ready in September and will certainly be a hyped rookie of the year candidate in 2009. Gaby Sanchez is now the heir apparent to the first base job with Jacobs shipped out. Brett Carroll is another hitter on the verge of the majors, but will likely only get a shot if Maybin fails to land a job.
Non-tender candidates: The Marlins will likely move several candidates for arbitration, including Kevin Gregg and Scott Olsen. If they can't find trading partners, I'd say there's about a 30-40% chance they'd non-tender Kevin Gregg, with whom they grew dissatisfied in the latter half of last year. But, this being baseball, where there's perpetually a need for anyone who's saved games with any success (and Gregg was superb until about a week before the All-Star break), the scenario is unlikely to present itself. Gregg's probably bound for Detroit, St. Louis, Cleveland, or even conceivably the NY Mets, Olsen will go to whoever the Marlins feel offers the best return (the Rangers have been mentioned numerous times, but I could see a package from the Indians centered around Kelly Shoppach and a corner outfielder (possibly Franklin Gutierrez) that would brnig back Olsen and Gregg.)
Needs: Catching and relief pitching, possibly another outfielder. Adding Leo Nunez gives the Marlins another young reliever to throw at the wall in the hopes that someone will stick, but it's still a bullpen composed of young and inexperienced relievers like Matt Lindstrom, Joe Nelson, and Renyel Pinto as the grizzled veterans. Adding a David Weathers or Jeremy Affeldt type would be the kind of move that would really make this a dangerous team, but is unlikely. The catching in Florida was a hole in 2008, although John Baker proved a useful Chris Coste-like stopgap who brutalized the Phillies last season. The Marlins have a couple prospects in CF in Maybin and Carroll that should keep them from using Cody Ross or Alfredo Amezaga as an everyday CF, but I wouldn't rule out acquiring another outfielder who could play in the corners.
Injuries that figure in 2009: Anibal Sanchez came back from labrum surgery in 2009, but never showed much effectiveness or durability. His continued recovery is the key to the rotation. Josh Johnson's rapid recovery from Tommy John was impressive, but he needs to maintain his effectiveness. Josh Willingham has been injury prone during his time in the majors, and he will need to stay healthy to keep Cody Ross from having to play left field every day -- which is a best case scenario asssuming that Maybin can hold the CF job.
Free agent ceiling: Casey Blake would be about as highly rated a player as I could envision the Marlins pursuing, and even that's something of a stretch. That said, they did sign Hanley Ramirez to a long-term deal, and Blake would be a useful player in LF, RF, 3B, and 1B for a team that's got question marks at those spots.
Atlanta Braves
The mish-mash of Braves' free agents has a couple hall of famers and an assorted cast of journeymen: Elmer Dessens, Tom Glavine, Mike Hampton, Jorge Julio, Corky Miller, Greg Norton, Will Ohman, John Smoltz, Julian Tavarez
Most likely to return: John Smoltz seems the most likely to return since he's played in Atlanta his entire career. If he returns, I'd believe it'd be to the Braves, since the Tigers aren't likely to make a play for his services a year after finishing last in the AL Central. Will Ohman is a valuable reliever and I'd guess the Braves will make a play to keep him, but he may find more money elsewhere after an 83-appearance season in Atlanta.
Most likely to leave: Dessens would be an obvious choice, but not even rabid Braves fans likely noticed his 4 game stint with the Braves, so my pick is Tavarez, who will probably have to settle for a bottom of the line contract from a bottom-budget team after getting rocked by both right and left-handed batters in 2008. He'll probably muster a minor league contract from a club like the Pirates or Royals who are trying to build bullpens on the cheap, but not much in the way of major league interest.
Prospect on the rise: Tommy Hanson is one of the most talked-about minor league prospects right now, and his name keeps surfacing around Peavy discussions as a player Frank Wren won't deal for Peavy. He is probably a year away, but with Brent Lillibridge and Jordan Schafer losing their footing in 2008, it's hard to see another Brave who's going to make an impact in 2009.
Non-tender candidates: I'm not seeing any.
Needs: Healthy arms and an outfielder with power. For as bad as the Braves were in 2008, they've actually proven to have a good offensive strategy outside of Jeff Francouer. Gregor Blanco hit a lousy .251, but still mustered an OBP of .366. Yunel Escobar batted .288 with an OBP of .366, and the Braves ended up 5th in the majors with an OBP of .354, and their power wasn't dreadful (slg. of .408, 20th in the majors). But for a team with no power, the Braves were astonishingly unable to steal bases (58 in 85 attempts, 28th in the majors). That doesn't lead to run production. The Braves need at least two starters behind Jair Jurrjens, Tim Hudson, and Jorge Campillo.
Injuries that figure in 2009: Smoltz and Glavine may not be able to pitch anywhere in 2009 because of injuries, but if they can, it'd probably be in Atlanta (Glavine has said he wouldn't pitch anywhere else). Chipper Jones was limited for much of last season by shoulder tendinitis, and with his history of injuries, it's hard to imagine it's the last time we've heard of this injury. Unless Kotchman really shows up, Chipper may be playing first base by the end of 2009.
Free agent ceiling: There's rumors floating around that Rafael Furcal may be on the horizon for the Braves. I could see them spending that kind of money, but Furcal would make little sense for a team that's loaded with serviceable/borderline-starter middle infielders like Omar Infante, Martin Prado, Yunel Escobar, and Kelly Johnson. I could see the Braves making a play for Ryan Dempster, Ben Sheets, Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, or Bobby Abreu.
Washington Nationals
The Nationals began their free agency period early by attempting to option a number of players to AAA: Chad Cordero, Pete Orr, Ryan Wagner, and Ryan Langerhans. Odalis Perez and Aaron Boone are the only players listed as major league free agents.
Most likely to return: Odalis Perez may be hard-pressed to find a multi-year deal anywhere else, considering how he performed after signing his deal in Los Angeles. While he could probably find one-year deals
Most likely to leave: Cordero's obviously gone and would make a lot of sense for teams like Cleveland or St. Louis, who need bullpen help, but don't want to pay for Brian Fuentes or Francisco Rodriguez. Cordero's not of the same caliber and has some injury questions, but he's been mostly successful in his career and will probably be available at some point in 2009. He's not a player to depend upon, but he could be a useful player to cushion the blow if closers like Jensen Lewis or Chris Perez falter.
Prospect on the rise: Ross Detwiler is still likely a ways from the Majors after playing last year at A ball, but the Nationals have pushed him into the Majors before (for one appearance in September 2007). He could enter the mix for the rotation and, with Balester, give the Nationals a pair of meaningful prospects. Roger Bernadina is hardly a top-end prospect, but he's got a good shot to take over an outfield spot and lead off for the Nationals in 2009. If he doesn't, DC-area native Justin Maxwell may very well win the job. Neither has much of a chance to produce big numbers in the majors, but this is the best Washington's system has. Luke Montz may get a shot to back up Jesus Flores in 2009, but isn't likely to do much more than Wil Nieves.
Non-tender candidates: The Nationals are cutting ties with Chad Cordero, having already announced their intention to non-tender the team's longest tenured player. As much as they no longer wish to pay Austin Kearns or Wily Mo Pena, they're locked into the contracts now.
Needs: Starting pitching, relief pitching, first base, second base, a corner outfielder who can stay healthy. The saddest thing is that I'm surprised it's this few positions. The Nationals got better than expected production from Cristian Guzman, who's still likely to suffer injuries in 2009 but were snakebit with injuries to Ryan Zimmerman and Lastings Milledge. The pitching cupboard isn't bare with John Lannan and the occasionally effective Colin Balester, but only Lannan's a lock for the 2009 rotation. That's never a good sign.
Injuries that figure in 2009: To be announced. With Cristian Guzman and Austin Kearns penciled into the lineup, it's a matter of time. Nick Johnson is expected to miss 2009 with a hangnail, after missing 2008 with a torn ulnar ligament in his wrist.
Free agent ceiling: Adam Dunn is exactly what Jim Bowden looks for -- a former Cincinnati Red. There's been talk of Dunn joining the Nats since his best friend (Austin Kearns) was traded in '06, and with the apparently tepid response to him in the July trade market and now in the rumor mill, it is completely plausible that he could end up in Washington if he thinks they'll leave him in LF.
Monday, November 3, 2008
Mike Jacobs for Leo Nunez -- breakdown
Last week gave us the first activity of the offseason, the Marlins-Royals swap that leaves the Royals with yet another defensively deficient first baseman who can't get on base and the Marlins with a right-handed reliever who has everything they look in a player (read: he is not arbitration-eligible and has fully functioning use of at least one arm).
For Jacobs, it's not hard to see why the Royals acquired him at first glance. His 32 home runs would have led the Royals by a wide margin (2nd would be Jose Guillen with 20) and he bats left-handed, which should help the Royals improve on their abominable 39-63 (.382) record against right-handed pitching. Their record against lefties was, astonishingly, 36-24 (.600), the second best in the AL behind the Angels. However, on second glance, it becomes very hard to explain why the Royals would acquire Jacobs. His OBP of .299 now gives them a likely 4-5 combination of Jacobs (.299 OBP) and Guillen (.300 OBP). With batters like that at the heart of your order, there's no need for a #5 guy, since he'll only be hitting solo home runs anyway.
The Royals are acquiring a home run-hitting first baseman with a lousy glove who hits right-handers, but not lefties (.235/.275/.414 lifetime -- his numbers in 2008 were worse in all three categories) and gets on base so little than even after 32 home runs, he finishes with an OPS of .813. Although Jacobs bats left-handed, the most likely prospect to fill the role, Kila Ka'aihue, also bats left-handed. The next most likely candidate, Ryan Shealy, although a right-handed better, has historically smacked right-handed pitching to the tune of a .307/.363/.481 line. Shealy is similarly baffled by lefties (.179/.266/.298), but seems to be a viable (and cheap) platoon candidate with Ka'aihue, if the Royals had wanted to set a platoon. With Alex Gordon, Mark Teahen, and Billy Butler also all available to play first base, the Royals had plenty of options at a position where none of their options are particularly good. Shealy and Butler would be a fine platoon and likely cost about $5 million less than Jacobs will after arbitration.
And, as bad as Billy Butler is defensively, his numbers actually compare favorably to Mike Jacobs'. Last year, Jacobs finished the season with a zone rating of .770 and a fielding percentage of .988. Butler has a zone rating of .865 and a fielding percentage of .992 with a marginally lower range factor.So the only thing the Royals get is someone who has historically hit more home runs. But Kauffman Stadium was even less hospitable to the long ball than Pro Player last year. And Jacobs has never shown this kind of propensity for home runs before, setting aside his freak debut season that looks a lot like Billy Butler in his debut season. So it's definitely not a victory for the Royals.
Nunez had a lot of clean sheets in his time as a pitcher with the Royals last year and finished the season with respectable numbers. What is harder to explain is his tendency to get lit up. He allowed 16 earned runs in 48 1/3 innings last year, but allowed 3 earned runs in 4 different appearances, allowing 1 run in 2 appearances and 2 in another. Despite having a hard fastball, he doesn't have the ability to strike out hitters that you really need out of a reliever, mustering only 26 Ks. This also leads to Nunez being beaten in his counts, with batters hitting .189 against Nunez after he's got them at 0-2, which isn't great, but isn't particularly bad either. Nunez doesn't give a lot of free passes (roughly 1 for every three innings), but without the ability to end an at bat, he's a pitch-to-contact reliever that is going to be relying on some exceptionally spotty defense behind him with Cantu, Uggla, and Hanley Ramirez in the projected '09 Marlins infield.But there's no precedent for this success -- Nunez was horrid in his first season with the Royals, and has improved since. Last season, he had a significant regression in walks, but gave up fewer hits in exchange.So I don't feel like the Marlins get a real prize. They get a spotty reliever with a dynamite fastball but no ability to get key strikeouts. He's still only 25, so maybe the Marlins feel he's a valuable project to help build a bridge to whoever will be closing games for the Marlins next year, but he's far from a sure thing.
For Jacobs, it's not hard to see why the Royals acquired him at first glance. His 32 home runs would have led the Royals by a wide margin (2nd would be Jose Guillen with 20) and he bats left-handed, which should help the Royals improve on their abominable 39-63 (.382) record against right-handed pitching. Their record against lefties was, astonishingly, 36-24 (.600), the second best in the AL behind the Angels. However, on second glance, it becomes very hard to explain why the Royals would acquire Jacobs. His OBP of .299 now gives them a likely 4-5 combination of Jacobs (.299 OBP) and Guillen (.300 OBP). With batters like that at the heart of your order, there's no need for a #5 guy, since he'll only be hitting solo home runs anyway.
The Royals are acquiring a home run-hitting first baseman with a lousy glove who hits right-handers, but not lefties (.235/.275/.414 lifetime -- his numbers in 2008 were worse in all three categories) and gets on base so little than even after 32 home runs, he finishes with an OPS of .813. Although Jacobs bats left-handed, the most likely prospect to fill the role, Kila Ka'aihue, also bats left-handed. The next most likely candidate, Ryan Shealy, although a right-handed better, has historically smacked right-handed pitching to the tune of a .307/.363/.481 line. Shealy is similarly baffled by lefties (.179/.266/.298), but seems to be a viable (and cheap) platoon candidate with Ka'aihue, if the Royals had wanted to set a platoon. With Alex Gordon, Mark Teahen, and Billy Butler also all available to play first base, the Royals had plenty of options at a position where none of their options are particularly good. Shealy and Butler would be a fine platoon and likely cost about $5 million less than Jacobs will after arbitration.
And, as bad as Billy Butler is defensively, his numbers actually compare favorably to Mike Jacobs'. Last year, Jacobs finished the season with a zone rating of .770 and a fielding percentage of .988. Butler has a zone rating of .865 and a fielding percentage of .992 with a marginally lower range factor.So the only thing the Royals get is someone who has historically hit more home runs. But Kauffman Stadium was even less hospitable to the long ball than Pro Player last year. And Jacobs has never shown this kind of propensity for home runs before, setting aside his freak debut season that looks a lot like Billy Butler in his debut season. So it's definitely not a victory for the Royals.
Nunez had a lot of clean sheets in his time as a pitcher with the Royals last year and finished the season with respectable numbers. What is harder to explain is his tendency to get lit up. He allowed 16 earned runs in 48 1/3 innings last year, but allowed 3 earned runs in 4 different appearances, allowing 1 run in 2 appearances and 2 in another. Despite having a hard fastball, he doesn't have the ability to strike out hitters that you really need out of a reliever, mustering only 26 Ks. This also leads to Nunez being beaten in his counts, with batters hitting .189 against Nunez after he's got them at 0-2, which isn't great, but isn't particularly bad either. Nunez doesn't give a lot of free passes (roughly 1 for every three innings), but without the ability to end an at bat, he's a pitch-to-contact reliever that is going to be relying on some exceptionally spotty defense behind him with Cantu, Uggla, and Hanley Ramirez in the projected '09 Marlins infield.But there's no precedent for this success -- Nunez was horrid in his first season with the Royals, and has improved since. Last season, he had a significant regression in walks, but gave up fewer hits in exchange.So I don't feel like the Marlins get a real prize. They get a spotty reliever with a dynamite fastball but no ability to get key strikeouts. He's still only 25, so maybe the Marlins feel he's a valuable project to help build a bridge to whoever will be closing games for the Marlins next year, but he's far from a sure thing.
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