AL West: offseason outlook

AL West
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
The Angels didn't just win a lot of games by beating up on a lousy division, they fared just as well against the AL East and Central. But they never really added up to a team that was going to scare you. They've still got good pitching, but the offense is pretty middling for a team that's invested so heavily in free agents. The Angels have a number of meaningful free agents: Garret Anderson, Jon Garland, Darren Oliver, Juan Rivera, Francisco Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira.

Most likely to return: Darren Oliver has pitched pretty well since landing in Anaheim, re-signing him will be a priority for the Angels simply because they can afford him.

Most likely to leave:Jon Garland was a puzzling acquisition for the Angels last season and he didn't work out any better than they could have expected. The Angels don't figure to have much interest in re-signing him.

Non-tender candidates: Ryan Budde is a 29-year-old non-prospect third catcher. With Hank Conger in the upper minors, there's little chance Budde makes it past December. He'll be outrighted or non-tendered.

Prospect on the rise: Brandon Wood and Kendry Morales aren't really prospects anymore, since neither of them are rookies. Sean Rodriguez may figure as a middle infielder and Nick Adenhart may get another shot as a 5th starter, but it doesn't look like the Angels are promoting any major impact players onto their major league roster in 2009.

Needs: Relief pitching -- the Angels are on the verge of losing K-Rod, they have no real depth in their bullpen. Jose Arredondo may be a closer next year, Scot Shields and Justin Speier are back, but that's about it.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Kelvim Escobar missed all of 2008 with shoulder surgery, but was optimistic that he'd be able to return in 2009.

Free agent ceiling: The Angels are likely to be factors with every major free agent. They'll make a bid on Sabathia, Teixeira, and probably make some effort to resign Francisco Rodriguez after he discovers the market temperature.

Texas Rangers
The Rangers made a splash with a deal that I thought was a slam dunk for Jon Daniels, landing Josh Hamilton for a pitcher with serious control problems and an elfin reliever. That pitcher became Edinson Volquez (and the minuscule Danny Ray Herrera pitched relatively well in limited opportunities), so even though Josh Hamilton dominated AL pitching most of the year, the trade's probably a wash. Unfortunately, it meant the Rangers were scoring 6 or 7 runs in defeats. The Rangers haven't had a great starting pitcher since moving to the Ballpark at Arlington and can count their sub-4.00 ERA starters in that time on one hand -- or at least on Antonio Alfonseca's hand. Free agents are: Milton Bradley, Jason Jennings, Ramon Vazquez, Jamey Wright

Most likely to return: Milton Bradley is a DH and seems unlikely to move to a place where he'd have to play outfield every day. He's burned bridges in Los Angeles, San Diego, and Cleveland. The Rangers may be the only team actively bidding for his services, and he has performed for them. He should be back.

Most likely to leave:The Diamondbacks have already specifically mentioned Ramon Vazquez as a possible replacement for Orlando Hudson at second base. If a team's that interested, they should be able to outbid the Rangers, who would use him solely as a fill-in.

Non-tender candidates:None.

Prospect on the rise: Neftali Feliz pitched extremely well in the minors and might have an outside shot at cracking the rotation out of spring training, Max Ramirez and Taylor Teagarden will either be major league catchers or trade bait in 2009. Thomas Diamond, the only player of the Rangers' DVD pitching prospects to remain a Ranger (while the others -- John Danks and Edinson Volquez -- have made impressive debuts for other teams), struggled in 2008 after 2007 Tommy John surgery, but may yet prove to be major league ready.

Needs: Pitching of any sort. Kevin Millwood hasn't been an ace except for one season in Cleveland, Vicente Padilla is maddeningly inconsistent, and besides Matt Harrison, the young guys the Rangers are tossing behind them have pretty low ceilings.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Kason Gabbard went down for the year with a bone spur in his elbow, surgery on that may sideline him in early 2009. Milton Bradley was healthy in 2008. Counting on that to happen in 2009 would be a fool's errand.

Free agent ceiling: Ben Sheets may be a Ranger at the end of the offseason, because Mike Maddux is now the pitching coach of the Rangers, and the Rangers could use any starter, even one who's prone to injuries.

Oakland Athletics
Contrary to what everyone is saying, the A's are not trading Matt Holliday. They wanted two first round picks and by acquiring a man who is certain to be a Type A free agent, they have acquired those picks. He'll be with the A's come hell or high water in September. Beane hasn't done it for a while, but he used to do it all the time -- Ricardo Rincon, Ray Durham, Keith Foulke, Octavio Dotel are all examples (I think, it may only be three of the four) -- he trades for players who are likely to warrant compensation and if he can re-sign them, he will. If not, welcome draft picks. The Holliday move is unlikely to be the finish since Lew Wolff is apparently okay with a payroll surge. Free agents are insignificant: Emil Brown, Alan Embree, Keith Foulke, Mike Sweeney, Frank Thomas.

Most likely to return: Frank Thomas played well enough to consider bringing him back, but he's also a DH-only player, so it's unlikely anyone outside of Oakland will pony up any dough. The DH spot is likely going to be Jack Cust, but if the A's bring back Thomas, Cust can remain the American League's worst left fielder and move Matt Holliday to right. It's not a good defensive alignment, but it'll score a lot more runs.

Most likely to leave:Alan Embree's option was declined, he's a left-handed reliever who's not terrible. He'll find that money elsewhere.

Non-tender candidates: Matt Murton is 27 and hasn't shown the bat he was supposed to offer, Rajai Davis is a pure speed player on a team that doesn't have much interest in stealing bases. Rob Bowen has little upside as a #2 catcher, unless the A's intend to deal Landon Powell.

Prospect on the rise: Aaron Cunningham figures to be in the running to play in the outfield for the A's in 2009, but since he doesn't hit for much power or show much prowess with stealing bases, this speaks more about the questionable state of affairs in the A's outfield.

Needs: Third base, outfielders, starting pitching. Eric Chavez is not a dependable player, Jack Hannahan is not good enough to replace him, and Cliff Pennington doesn't look to be much better. Even with Matt Holliday, the A's outfield is Matt Holliday, Ryan Sweeney, and Jack Cust, which would be perhaps the worst fielding outfield in the history of Major League baseball. Landing another meaningful bat that could play right field and ensure Cust is a full-time DH would go a lot toward making this team respectable. For all the talk that Greg Smith was dispensable, he may have been the A's best starting pitcher last year after Harden and Blanton were dealt. The A's could use a veteran starting pitcher who could bring a little dependability to a volatile rotation of virtual rookies like Gio Gonzalez, Dallas Braden, and Sean Gallagher.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Eric Chavez missed most of 2008 after shoulder surgery, but simply can't be counted on as a major league player at this time in his career. Justin Duchscherer is expected to be ready to pitch "during spring training", so even a modest setback could affect his availability at the start of the regular season.

Free agent ceiling: The Athletics have some money and have been known to make random free agent investments in the past (remember Esteban Loaiza?). Jason Giambi is rumored to be on the horizon, Rafael Furcal has as well, and Furcal would almost certainly be the top of the free agent pool for the A's.

Seattle Mariners
The Mariners were supposed to contend last year. Whoops. Instead, they were one of the worst teams in baseball and got swindled on a deal for Erik Bedard that actually looked relatively favorable when the Mariners made it. Willie Bloomquist, Miguel Cairo, Raul Ibanez, and Jose Vidro are the Mariners' only free agents.

Most likely to return: Willie Bloomquist had far and away his best season in 2008. He's versatile enough to keep around since the team's not going to be getting much better in 2009. He's still unlikely to be back, but I'd give him considerably better odds than the others.

Most likely to leave:The Jose Vidro experiment is over. So is Jose Vidro's career.

Non-tender candidates: There has been talk that Erik Bedard may be the most impressive player non-tendered in my lifetime. Coming off surgery and likely to make significant money in arbitration, injury or not, there was talk last season of the Mariners cutting their losses and non-tendering Bedard. I don't think it will happen, but it is something the Mariners could consider if the prognosis gets worse in the next couple of weeks.

Prospect on the rise: Matt Tuiasasopo may hit the major leagues in 2009, particularly if the Mariners decide to deal Adrian Beltre. the other minor leaguers don't look to make an impact until until 2010.

Needs: First base, left and center field. Bryan LaHair may have made more contact than Richie Sexson, but he didn't produce anything to convince anyone he was a bona fide major league first baseman. Jeremy Reed finally produced enough to warrant a roster spot, but doesn't look like a star in center field. Wladamier Balantien hasn't looked like a player of major league caliber, which means the Mariners may need to look elsewhere to replace Raul Ibanez.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Erik Bedard is unlikely to be ready for the early part of the 2009 season, though the prognosis now has him returning by mid-season at least.

Free agent ceiling: This team's been making ill-advised buys for a while (Carlos Silva, Jarrod Washburn, Richie Sexson, the now comparatively successful Adrian Beltre), that'll pause for at least 2009.

Monday Trade Blitz -- Matt Holliday, Huston Street, Scott Olsen, Josh Willingham

Two deals have purportedly gone down, neither of which makes a whole heck of a lot of sense.

Reported Deal #1
Matt Holliday is traded from the Rockies to the A's for a group of players reportedly including Greg Smith, Carlos Gonzalez, and Huston Street.

Billy Beane does it again, swindling...oh wait. He traded a quality starting pitcher, an average closer, and one of last year's top prospects for a bat that's had one great season away from Coors Field.

Greg Smith was not a great pitcher and unlikely to become one with a marginal K rate. But he was the best starter the A's had in 2008 aside from Duchscherer, whose frequent injuries make him unreliable at best. Carlos Gonzalez had a disappointing 2008, showing little power in Oakland, and Huston Street lost his job as a closer to the astounding debut season of Brad Ziegler. Street's definitely the best player in the deal, considering Gonzalez's woeful OBP and lack of power and Smith's uncertainty, but the package isn't insignificant.

Matt Holliday is a player who's hard to read. His career numbers away from Coors Field are barely better than adequate, although he put up a good OPS last year. But he's a player who has benefited a lot from Coors Field and is now plopped into a potent pitcher's park. Holliday only mustered 25 home runs last year, but he did show a surge of speed (swiping 28 bases in 30 attempts).

Analysis:
The Rockies get the better end of this deal. The Cardinals' deal fell apart, the Phillies seemed an unlikely contender for the deal, and the Rockies get a pitcher who will fill out their rotation, a would-be closer to replace Brian Fuentes (or, more likely, trade bait of their own that could land another major league ready player), and an outfielder who is only a year removed from being one of the Top 25 prospects in major league baseball. The A's get a player who is a good hitter, but may not be much more than good removed from Coors Field, but is guaranteed to be beyond the A's current price range at the end of this season. And with the lineup they have around Holliday and the prospect-dependent pitching staff, the A's seem extraordinarily unlikely to contend for anything this season. Billy Beane is apparently counting on a mighty fine draft pick to come of Matt Holliday when he signs elsewhere.

Reported Deal # 2:
Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham are traded from the Marlins to the Nationals for Emilio Bonifacio, P.J. Dean and possibly infielder Jake Smolinski.

Olsen is probably around a major league average starter, one who represents a relatively substantial upgrade from anyone the Nationals have slotted in their current rotation. His 2007 was a bad season, but 2006 and 2008 were both respectable. He's been a durable starter. Willingham, on the other hand, is a good hitter, but has serious durability issues.

Bonifacio is a light-hitting second baseman who had shown some stolen base prowess in the minors, but didn't flash that kind of ability in his run with the Nationals. He will be little more than a utility man for the Marlins unless they should make a surprising trade of Dan Uggla in the near future. The other players are still unproven, with Baseball America projecting Smolinski as the #11 prospect in the relatively barren Nationals organization (as an outfielder) and Dean as the #30 prospect last season.

Analysis:
I would have thought the Marlins certainly could have gotten more for Olsen -- I had concocted a deal with the Indians to send Kevin Gregg and Scott Olsen to the Tribe for Kelly Shoppach and an outfielder like Franklin Gutierrez, Nick Weglarz, or John Drennen. Instead, they get no one who can play a meaningful role on their team in the next two or three years. Bonifacio may be a useful piece, but he's little more than that.

As improbable as it is that Jim Bowden came out ahead on a deal with Beinfest, the Nationals seem to have fared well here. Olsen is a stabilizing force that gives the Nationals a second solid left-handed starter in their rotation. Willingham is an offensive upgrade from Austin Kearns last year, but a huge defensive regression and his career numbers are roughly equivalent to Kearns' career totals. With Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena under contract in the outfield, a move seems to be imminent, although it's possible that Willingham could move to 1B and fill a substantial hole for the Nationals, who were also rumored to be interested in Adam Dunn (who has expressed his discontent with playing 1B in the past and would almost certainly frown on a deal involving his friend Kearns -- whose contract and injury prone 2008 makes him hard to move anyway). If Willingham can play first, freeing up Ronnie Belliard to play second, the Nationals have a shockingly serviceable lineup until the plague of injuries begins to beset them.