Monday Trade Blitz -- Matt Holliday, Huston Street, Scott Olsen, Josh Willingham

Two deals have purportedly gone down, neither of which makes a whole heck of a lot of sense.

Reported Deal #1
Matt Holliday is traded from the Rockies to the A's for a group of players reportedly including Greg Smith, Carlos Gonzalez, and Huston Street.

Billy Beane does it again, swindling...oh wait. He traded a quality starting pitcher, an average closer, and one of last year's top prospects for a bat that's had one great season away from Coors Field.

Greg Smith was not a great pitcher and unlikely to become one with a marginal K rate. But he was the best starter the A's had in 2008 aside from Duchscherer, whose frequent injuries make him unreliable at best. Carlos Gonzalez had a disappointing 2008, showing little power in Oakland, and Huston Street lost his job as a closer to the astounding debut season of Brad Ziegler. Street's definitely the best player in the deal, considering Gonzalez's woeful OBP and lack of power and Smith's uncertainty, but the package isn't insignificant.

Matt Holliday is a player who's hard to read. His career numbers away from Coors Field are barely better than adequate, although he put up a good OPS last year. But he's a player who has benefited a lot from Coors Field and is now plopped into a potent pitcher's park. Holliday only mustered 25 home runs last year, but he did show a surge of speed (swiping 28 bases in 30 attempts).

Analysis:
The Rockies get the better end of this deal. The Cardinals' deal fell apart, the Phillies seemed an unlikely contender for the deal, and the Rockies get a pitcher who will fill out their rotation, a would-be closer to replace Brian Fuentes (or, more likely, trade bait of their own that could land another major league ready player), and an outfielder who is only a year removed from being one of the Top 25 prospects in major league baseball. The A's get a player who is a good hitter, but may not be much more than good removed from Coors Field, but is guaranteed to be beyond the A's current price range at the end of this season. And with the lineup they have around Holliday and the prospect-dependent pitching staff, the A's seem extraordinarily unlikely to contend for anything this season. Billy Beane is apparently counting on a mighty fine draft pick to come of Matt Holliday when he signs elsewhere.

Reported Deal # 2:
Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham are traded from the Marlins to the Nationals for Emilio Bonifacio, P.J. Dean and possibly infielder Jake Smolinski.

Olsen is probably around a major league average starter, one who represents a relatively substantial upgrade from anyone the Nationals have slotted in their current rotation. His 2007 was a bad season, but 2006 and 2008 were both respectable. He's been a durable starter. Willingham, on the other hand, is a good hitter, but has serious durability issues.

Bonifacio is a light-hitting second baseman who had shown some stolen base prowess in the minors, but didn't flash that kind of ability in his run with the Nationals. He will be little more than a utility man for the Marlins unless they should make a surprising trade of Dan Uggla in the near future. The other players are still unproven, with Baseball America projecting Smolinski as the #11 prospect in the relatively barren Nationals organization (as an outfielder) and Dean as the #30 prospect last season.

Analysis:
I would have thought the Marlins certainly could have gotten more for Olsen -- I had concocted a deal with the Indians to send Kevin Gregg and Scott Olsen to the Tribe for Kelly Shoppach and an outfielder like Franklin Gutierrez, Nick Weglarz, or John Drennen. Instead, they get no one who can play a meaningful role on their team in the next two or three years. Bonifacio may be a useful piece, but he's little more than that.

As improbable as it is that Jim Bowden came out ahead on a deal with Beinfest, the Nationals seem to have fared well here. Olsen is a stabilizing force that gives the Nationals a second solid left-handed starter in their rotation. Willingham is an offensive upgrade from Austin Kearns last year, but a huge defensive regression and his career numbers are roughly equivalent to Kearns' career totals. With Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena under contract in the outfield, a move seems to be imminent, although it's possible that Willingham could move to 1B and fill a substantial hole for the Nationals, who were also rumored to be interested in Adam Dunn (who has expressed his discontent with playing 1B in the past and would almost certainly frown on a deal involving his friend Kearns -- whose contract and injury prone 2008 makes him hard to move anyway). If Willingham can play first, freeing up Ronnie Belliard to play second, the Nationals have a shockingly serviceable lineup until the plague of injuries begins to beset them.