This is what passes for news. Brocail is going back for $2.5 million, even though he's coming off a surprisingly respectable season into a market where loads of teams with money need relief pitching. I'm assuming there's a personal factor here for Brocail, because you'd think that even in the NL the Mets would cough up enough money to make it worth considering. Last year actually marked a regression from 2007, where he put up a 3.05 ERA despite having a considerably lower strikeout rate. That number was likely influenced by BABIP and a large number of unearned runs (in 2007, 7 of the 33 runs he allowed were unearned).
In 2008, he fell off with a 3.93 ERA and a higher WHIP, but he still had a decent season and showed a spike in his strikeout rate (.93 K/IP as opposed to a career .71 K/IP before 2008).
All in all, it's a respectable enough signing that fills a need in the Astros' bullpen, but it's not going to be a difference-making move.
The Astros also signed Mike Hampton, pending a physical, yesterday, but I didn't bother to say anything about it. Why? Well, because saying that the Astros signed Mike Hampton pending a physical is kind of like saying the Indians have signed Trevor Hoffman, pending a contract offer being extended and agreed upon. Hampton is a good signing solely because he's cheap and if he pitches, he'll pitch better than Brandon Backe did in 2007. Since the Astros seem to have backed off signing Randy Wolf and declined to offer him arbitration, Hampton can theoretically fill that role if he can stay healthy.
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Cardinals sign Trever Miller
The St. Louis Cardinals signed left-handed reliever Trever Miller, recently of the AL Champion Tampa Bay Rays. The Cardinals were in the market for left-handed relief pitching, though given the disastrous performance of nearly all in the St. Louis bullpen, it's odd that they're focused so heavily on left-handers.
Miller was adequate for the Rays, with a 4.15 ERA in 2008, but is really a one-out pitcher, given his right-handed split (7.50 ERA, 20 H, 10 BB, 14 K in 18 IP against RHB). Against lefties, he allowed only 19 H and 10 BB in 25.1 IP, while also striking out 30.
This isn't a move that I think represents much of an upgrade for the Cardinals, but it's not likely to be a particularly expensive deal either. The present left-handed options were Tyler Johnson (decent in 2007, missed 2008 with rotator cuff surgery), Randy Flores (who walked more batters than he struck out in 2008 and compiled a BAA of .314 against lefties and .316 against right-handed batters), and Jaime Garcia, whose numbers are too incidental and small in size to warrant mention.
If Tyler Johnson can post his 2007 numbers again, I think he'll probably have a better season than Trever Miller. But for a manager who manages like Tony LaRussa and uses pitchers for as many 0 inning appearances or 1/3 inning appearances, I'm sure Miller appears to play a valuable role. I'd have pushed harder for a Dennys Reyes, though, who has a lot more positive upside (or even Alan Embree, who got hit last year, but has strung together a lot of good seasons. Miller is still a pitcher who's had two career seasons with a WHIP under this season's 1.36 (2004, 2006). If that's what he has to offer, the Cardinals might have done well to wait and sign Mike Lincoln.
Cardinals' bullpen:
CL Chris Perez
RHP Ryan Franklin
RHP Jason Motte
LHP Trever Miller
RHP Kyle McClellan
LHP Tyler Johnson
Miller was adequate for the Rays, with a 4.15 ERA in 2008, but is really a one-out pitcher, given his right-handed split (7.50 ERA, 20 H, 10 BB, 14 K in 18 IP against RHB). Against lefties, he allowed only 19 H and 10 BB in 25.1 IP, while also striking out 30.
This isn't a move that I think represents much of an upgrade for the Cardinals, but it's not likely to be a particularly expensive deal either. The present left-handed options were Tyler Johnson (decent in 2007, missed 2008 with rotator cuff surgery), Randy Flores (who walked more batters than he struck out in 2008 and compiled a BAA of .314 against lefties and .316 against right-handed batters), and Jaime Garcia, whose numbers are too incidental and small in size to warrant mention.
If Tyler Johnson can post his 2007 numbers again, I think he'll probably have a better season than Trever Miller. But for a manager who manages like Tony LaRussa and uses pitchers for as many 0 inning appearances or 1/3 inning appearances, I'm sure Miller appears to play a valuable role. I'd have pushed harder for a Dennys Reyes, though, who has a lot more positive upside (or even Alan Embree, who got hit last year, but has strung together a lot of good seasons. Miller is still a pitcher who's had two career seasons with a WHIP under this season's 1.36 (2004, 2006). If that's what he has to offer, the Cardinals might have done well to wait and sign Mike Lincoln.
Cardinals' bullpen:
CL Chris Perez
RHP Ryan Franklin
RHP Jason Motte
LHP Trever Miller
RHP Kyle McClellan
LHP Tyler Johnson
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Crisp for Ramirez trade; what it means for Mark Teahen; Mike Mussina retires
Deal: The Boston Red Sox trade Coco Crisp to the Kansas City Royals for right-handed relief pitcher Ramon Ramirez.
Analysis:
Seriously, Dayton Moore, i understand that with the death of Fire Joe Morgan, there's a lack of humor in all of our baseball-related lives. But that's no reason to keep making 99% of the baseball world laugh themselves to sleep, grateful that they're not Royals fans.
The Kansas City Royals made another trade, dealing another relief pitcher for another bat. Once again, the Royals traded a pitcher who may be at a value peak, but the return is nothing spectacular. Now there is talk that the Royals are in the market to acquire relief pitching, but their only trade pieces are the players that the first two trades have now made superflous, giving other teams little reason to pay much for them.
Crisp is a serviceable player, who will hit between .270-300 with an OBP between .320-.350. He has 15-20 home run potential and could probably steal 30 bases as an everyday player. But he's not a major offensive producer and regressed badly in Boston, where he mustered OPS+ of 77, 83, and 93 in his three seasons. But the Red Sox apparently regarded him as a luxury with the equally underwhelming, but more stolen base-prone Jacoby Ellsbury roaming in center field.
In exchange for Crisp, who will now likely lead off for the on-base and slugging-starved Royals, the Red Sox got Ramon Ramirez, a three-pitch reliever (fastball, changeup, slider) who has had two solid seasons in the majors and one disastrous one (2007), but has also been traded three times in his brief career. Ramirez fared well in 2006 and 2008, but his success in 2008 was due in no small part (as Dave Cameron notes on fangraphs) on an extremely low home run rate. Moving out of Kauffman Stadium, a pitcher-friendly venue even for the home team that's not pitching to the Royals, into Fenway Park will not help Ramirez on that count.
The Red Sox didn't get much in return for Crisp, who ended up being a substantial player for the 2008 squad because of Jacoby Ellsbury's impatience at the plate and late-season struggles, but they did get rid of a sizable contract for a part-time player and got someone who is at least going to be a replacement-level reliever that the Red Sox can use in lieu of a Mike Timlin. And yes, it means Justin Masterson might be able to make the move to the rotation, but as we've seen with Papelbon in 2007 and Clay Buchholz in 2008, things don't always go as planned in that rotation.
And I think the Red Sox got the better end of the deal, in any event. The Royals made a trade that's not bad, they got the better of the two players -- or at least the player who is a safer projection as the better of the two. But they also acquired a player who basically requires another move to be made. They have now added another outfielder to a mix that already had three guaranteed starters in Mark Teahen, David DeJesus, and Jose Guillen. Teahen's name has been in trade discussions and rumors -- with potential suitors being identified (falsely, apparently) as the Indians (who were, again, apparently falsely rumored to be willing to part with Ben Francisco, Franklin Gutierrez, or Trevor Crowe to get Teahen to play third) and the Cubs. But now, by acquiring a center fielder that will move DeJesus to left to suit the Royals' desires, they also put Mark Teahen on an obvious trade block. There's no room at DH, where the Royals already have a mess of players led by Billy Butler and, if Trey Hillman is an active observer of the game, Mike Jacobs -- a more woeful first baseman than the woeful Butler. They still have Ryan Shealy, Kiia Ka'ahuie, and theoretically Ross Gload.
They now basically have to move Mark Teahen in a trade or convince him to make another position change -- this time to second base, where he wouldn't be much worse defensively than the Royals' current leading option -- Esteban German. And there's little reason to believe he can bring back much in a trade when 1) other teams know he's worthless dead weight to the Royals and 2) he's not a particularly valuable player (91 OPS+ as a right fielder in 2008), he's really more of a poor man's Casey Blake because of the 1B/3B/RF position versatility -- a role that I think we can all agree is already filled by a readily-available free agent: Casey Blake.
Projected Royals' lineup:
LF DeJesus
SS Aviles
3B Gordon
RF Guillen
1B Jacobs
DH Butler
C Olivo/Buck
CF Crisp
2B German/Callaspo
Note: This presupposes that the Royals are observant enough to note that DeJesus' OBP warrants him being a leadoff batter. Deep down, I think we'll see Coco Crisp leading off and DeJesus dropping to third, plus a regression to the mean that will see Mike Aviles fall to 8th or 9th in the lineup. Keep in mind that Aviles' career minor league numbers fall well short in nearly every category of the numbers he posted in Kansas City last year.
In other news...
Mike Mussina has apparently decided to retire after his first 20-win season. Mussina had an impressive year in 2008, and even one that looked relatively sustainable, since so much of his success was attributable to a remarkable ability to avoid walks (31 BB in 200.1 IP), but it seems likely that the Yankees weren't counting on Mussina as a linchpin for their rotation.
Analysis:
Seriously, Dayton Moore, i understand that with the death of Fire Joe Morgan, there's a lack of humor in all of our baseball-related lives. But that's no reason to keep making 99% of the baseball world laugh themselves to sleep, grateful that they're not Royals fans.
The Kansas City Royals made another trade, dealing another relief pitcher for another bat. Once again, the Royals traded a pitcher who may be at a value peak, but the return is nothing spectacular. Now there is talk that the Royals are in the market to acquire relief pitching, but their only trade pieces are the players that the first two trades have now made superflous, giving other teams little reason to pay much for them.
Crisp is a serviceable player, who will hit between .270-300 with an OBP between .320-.350. He has 15-20 home run potential and could probably steal 30 bases as an everyday player. But he's not a major offensive producer and regressed badly in Boston, where he mustered OPS+ of 77, 83, and 93 in his three seasons. But the Red Sox apparently regarded him as a luxury with the equally underwhelming, but more stolen base-prone Jacoby Ellsbury roaming in center field.
In exchange for Crisp, who will now likely lead off for the on-base and slugging-starved Royals, the Red Sox got Ramon Ramirez, a three-pitch reliever (fastball, changeup, slider) who has had two solid seasons in the majors and one disastrous one (2007), but has also been traded three times in his brief career. Ramirez fared well in 2006 and 2008, but his success in 2008 was due in no small part (as Dave Cameron notes on fangraphs) on an extremely low home run rate. Moving out of Kauffman Stadium, a pitcher-friendly venue even for the home team that's not pitching to the Royals, into Fenway Park will not help Ramirez on that count.
The Red Sox didn't get much in return for Crisp, who ended up being a substantial player for the 2008 squad because of Jacoby Ellsbury's impatience at the plate and late-season struggles, but they did get rid of a sizable contract for a part-time player and got someone who is at least going to be a replacement-level reliever that the Red Sox can use in lieu of a Mike Timlin. And yes, it means Justin Masterson might be able to make the move to the rotation, but as we've seen with Papelbon in 2007 and Clay Buchholz in 2008, things don't always go as planned in that rotation.
And I think the Red Sox got the better end of the deal, in any event. The Royals made a trade that's not bad, they got the better of the two players -- or at least the player who is a safer projection as the better of the two. But they also acquired a player who basically requires another move to be made. They have now added another outfielder to a mix that already had three guaranteed starters in Mark Teahen, David DeJesus, and Jose Guillen. Teahen's name has been in trade discussions and rumors -- with potential suitors being identified (falsely, apparently) as the Indians (who were, again, apparently falsely rumored to be willing to part with Ben Francisco, Franklin Gutierrez, or Trevor Crowe to get Teahen to play third) and the Cubs. But now, by acquiring a center fielder that will move DeJesus to left to suit the Royals' desires, they also put Mark Teahen on an obvious trade block. There's no room at DH, where the Royals already have a mess of players led by Billy Butler and, if Trey Hillman is an active observer of the game, Mike Jacobs -- a more woeful first baseman than the woeful Butler. They still have Ryan Shealy, Kiia Ka'ahuie, and theoretically Ross Gload.
They now basically have to move Mark Teahen in a trade or convince him to make another position change -- this time to second base, where he wouldn't be much worse defensively than the Royals' current leading option -- Esteban German. And there's little reason to believe he can bring back much in a trade when 1) other teams know he's worthless dead weight to the Royals and 2) he's not a particularly valuable player (91 OPS+ as a right fielder in 2008), he's really more of a poor man's Casey Blake because of the 1B/3B/RF position versatility -- a role that I think we can all agree is already filled by a readily-available free agent: Casey Blake.
Projected Royals' lineup:
LF DeJesus
SS Aviles
3B Gordon
RF Guillen
1B Jacobs
DH Butler
C Olivo/Buck
CF Crisp
2B German/Callaspo
Note: This presupposes that the Royals are observant enough to note that DeJesus' OBP warrants him being a leadoff batter. Deep down, I think we'll see Coco Crisp leading off and DeJesus dropping to third, plus a regression to the mean that will see Mike Aviles fall to 8th or 9th in the lineup. Keep in mind that Aviles' career minor league numbers fall well short in nearly every category of the numbers he posted in Kansas City last year.
In other news...
Mike Mussina has apparently decided to retire after his first 20-win season. Mussina had an impressive year in 2008, and even one that looked relatively sustainable, since so much of his success was attributable to a remarkable ability to avoid walks (31 BB in 200.1 IP), but it seems likely that the Yankees weren't counting on Mussina as a linchpin for their rotation.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Ryan Dempster re-signs with the Cubs
Ryan Dempster has returned to the Chicago Cubs for 4 years and $52 million. Dempster is coming off a career year and then some, having gone 17-9 with a 2.96 ERA and 187 Ks in his first year back in the rotation after several years as an inconsistent closer.
Dempster is an enigma, he's had two good seasons as a starter, but has been mostly ineffective in his career. He seemed to resolve most of the control problems that had haunted him in Florida, but also didn't give up much in the way of hits.
Assuming Dempster is anything vaguely resembling the pitcher he was in 2008, the contract is pretty reasonable for the Cubs. There's a $4 million signing bonus, $8 million in 2009, $12.5 million in 2010, $13.5 million in 2011, and a player option in 2012 for $14 million. That's a big assumption, though, Dempster has never shown any real consistency.
As much as the press made of Dempster's effectiveness at home, his home/road splits are actually pretty similar, except for his record on the road (a pedestrian 3-3, despite a 3.13 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the road). Dempster's biggest weakness, besides control problems in the past, is his struggle with left-handed batters. (1.76 WHIP, .282 BAA career) Last year, however, he kept lefties in check to the tune of 1.29 WHIP, .243 BAA. He also managed to keep balls in the yard, finishing with the 8th best home run rate among qualifying pitchers. That said, it's likely unsustainable that he can maintain that rate, considering his career numbers and the fact that he's not really a heavy-sinker pitcher. His BABIP was just under league average, so it's unlikely that he's a complete fluke.
The $13 million he averages over the life of this deal is just a touch more than the Reds are paying Francisco Cordero, so if Dempster proves to drop off a bit and have to return to his old role as a closer who blows 5-6 saves a season, the Cubs are still in relatively good hands. And so long as he is anything like the pitcher they had last season, he's a solid investment who's already had his Tommy John surgery and is probably going to hold up for the life of his deal better than free agent alternatives like A.J. Burnett, who is expected to command more than this deal.
The Dempster deal really seems to make the Jake Peavy trade very unlikely, since the Cubs' rotation is pretty well set with a number of other options in the organization.
Projected Cubs rotation:
RHP Carlos Zambrano
RHP Ryan Dempster
RHP Rich Harden
LHP Ted Lilly
RHP Jason Marquis/RHP Sean Marshall/RHP Rich Hill (remember him?)
Dempster is an enigma, he's had two good seasons as a starter, but has been mostly ineffective in his career. He seemed to resolve most of the control problems that had haunted him in Florida, but also didn't give up much in the way of hits.
Assuming Dempster is anything vaguely resembling the pitcher he was in 2008, the contract is pretty reasonable for the Cubs. There's a $4 million signing bonus, $8 million in 2009, $12.5 million in 2010, $13.5 million in 2011, and a player option in 2012 for $14 million. That's a big assumption, though, Dempster has never shown any real consistency.
As much as the press made of Dempster's effectiveness at home, his home/road splits are actually pretty similar, except for his record on the road (a pedestrian 3-3, despite a 3.13 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the road). Dempster's biggest weakness, besides control problems in the past, is his struggle with left-handed batters. (1.76 WHIP, .282 BAA career) Last year, however, he kept lefties in check to the tune of 1.29 WHIP, .243 BAA. He also managed to keep balls in the yard, finishing with the 8th best home run rate among qualifying pitchers. That said, it's likely unsustainable that he can maintain that rate, considering his career numbers and the fact that he's not really a heavy-sinker pitcher. His BABIP was just under league average, so it's unlikely that he's a complete fluke.
The $13 million he averages over the life of this deal is just a touch more than the Reds are paying Francisco Cordero, so if Dempster proves to drop off a bit and have to return to his old role as a closer who blows 5-6 saves a season, the Cubs are still in relatively good hands. And so long as he is anything like the pitcher they had last season, he's a solid investment who's already had his Tommy John surgery and is probably going to hold up for the life of his deal better than free agent alternatives like A.J. Burnett, who is expected to command more than this deal.
The Dempster deal really seems to make the Jake Peavy trade very unlikely, since the Cubs' rotation is pretty well set with a number of other options in the organization.
Projected Cubs rotation:
RHP Carlos Zambrano
RHP Ryan Dempster
RHP Rich Harden
LHP Ted Lilly
RHP Jason Marquis/RHP Sean Marshall/RHP Rich Hill (remember him?)
Monday, November 17, 2008
Affeldt signs with San Francisco
The Giants have signed left-handed reliever Jeremy Affeldt to a 2-year deal
Affeldt was relatively effective with the Reds in 2008, although he failed in his quest to crack the Reds' rotation. Upon the signing last year, Wayne Krivsky said the Reds were hoping he'd be a starter, then Affeldt didn't seem to get much of a shot at starting and had an awful spring training (8 games, 4 starts, ERA of 10.69).
Affeldt's a bit of an enigma. In 2007, he was a hard man to get hits off of (BAA of .226, 47 hits in 59 IP), in 2008, he was much more pedestrian in that category (.260, 78 hits in 78.1 IP), but still dropped his WHIP by .05 by not throwing so many walks. He's had three good years in his entire career (one of which was as a starter in 2003), but he's timed the last two well.
So why could this be a good signing for the Giants? Affeldt's not just useful against left-handed batters. In fact, last season lefties hit .269 against him, righties mustered only a .255 average (although Affeldt has a tendency to walk right-handed batters -- 20 of them in 49.2 IP, none intentional). And most of all, Jeremy Affeldt hated pitching in Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park, to a tune of 4.64 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, .302 BAA in 42.2 IP. On the road, he pitched 35.2 innings, but put up a sparkling ERA of 1.77, 1.04 WHIP, and .203 BAA.
That said, Affeldt hasn't fared too well on the road in his prior trip through the NL West. In 2007, he was dominant at Coors Field (1.74 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, .160 BAA), but got lit up on the road (5.46, 1.71, .294). He also hasn't pitched well in AT&T Park (6.43 ERA), though the sample size of 7 innings is pretty meaningless.
What does the signing really mean for the Giants? Probably not much. To me, it means Alex Hinshaw may get a shot to unseat Brian Wilson as the Giants' closer (or at least split duties with him), leaving Affeldt and Jack Taschner as the "situational" lefties in the Giants' bullpen. Maybe Affelt is now a designated 8th-inning guy regardless of who is at the plate because of his relatively even splits and maybe it means Taschner gets sent to AAA, but I'd be kind of surprised if that move were on the horizon after 178 major league games for the Giants.
Projected Giants bullpen:
CL Brian Wilson
LHP Alex Hinshaw
RHP Sergio Romo
LHP Jeremy Affeldt
RHP Keiichi Yabu
RHP Billy Sadler
RHP Osiris Matos
Affeldt was relatively effective with the Reds in 2008, although he failed in his quest to crack the Reds' rotation. Upon the signing last year, Wayne Krivsky said the Reds were hoping he'd be a starter, then Affeldt didn't seem to get much of a shot at starting and had an awful spring training (8 games, 4 starts, ERA of 10.69).
Affeldt's a bit of an enigma. In 2007, he was a hard man to get hits off of (BAA of .226, 47 hits in 59 IP), in 2008, he was much more pedestrian in that category (.260, 78 hits in 78.1 IP), but still dropped his WHIP by .05 by not throwing so many walks. He's had three good years in his entire career (one of which was as a starter in 2003), but he's timed the last two well.
So why could this be a good signing for the Giants? Affeldt's not just useful against left-handed batters. In fact, last season lefties hit .269 against him, righties mustered only a .255 average (although Affeldt has a tendency to walk right-handed batters -- 20 of them in 49.2 IP, none intentional). And most of all, Jeremy Affeldt hated pitching in Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park, to a tune of 4.64 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, .302 BAA in 42.2 IP. On the road, he pitched 35.2 innings, but put up a sparkling ERA of 1.77, 1.04 WHIP, and .203 BAA.
That said, Affeldt hasn't fared too well on the road in his prior trip through the NL West. In 2007, he was dominant at Coors Field (1.74 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, .160 BAA), but got lit up on the road (5.46, 1.71, .294). He also hasn't pitched well in AT&T Park (6.43 ERA), though the sample size of 7 innings is pretty meaningless.
What does the signing really mean for the Giants? Probably not much. To me, it means Alex Hinshaw may get a shot to unseat Brian Wilson as the Giants' closer (or at least split duties with him), leaving Affeldt and Jack Taschner as the "situational" lefties in the Giants' bullpen. Maybe Affelt is now a designated 8th-inning guy regardless of who is at the plate because of his relatively even splits and maybe it means Taschner gets sent to AAA, but I'd be kind of surprised if that move were on the horizon after 178 major league games for the Giants.
Projected Giants bullpen:
CL Brian Wilson
LHP Alex Hinshaw
RHP Sergio Romo
LHP Jeremy Affeldt
RHP Keiichi Yabu
RHP Billy Sadler
RHP Osiris Matos
Thursday, November 13, 2008
AL West: offseason outlook
AL West
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
The Angels didn't just win a lot of games by beating up on a lousy division, they fared just as well against the AL East and Central. But they never really added up to a team that was going to scare you. They've still got good pitching, but the offense is pretty middling for a team that's invested so heavily in free agents. The Angels have a number of meaningful free agents: Garret Anderson, Jon Garland, Darren Oliver, Juan Rivera, Francisco Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira.
Most likely to return: Darren Oliver has pitched pretty well since landing in Anaheim, re-signing him will be a priority for the Angels simply because they can afford him.
Most likely to leave:Jon Garland was a puzzling acquisition for the Angels last season and he didn't work out any better than they could have expected. The Angels don't figure to have much interest in re-signing him.
Non-tender candidates: Ryan Budde is a 29-year-old non-prospect third catcher. With Hank Conger in the upper minors, there's little chance Budde makes it past December. He'll be outrighted or non-tendered.
Prospect on the rise: Brandon Wood and Kendry Morales aren't really prospects anymore, since neither of them are rookies. Sean Rodriguez may figure as a middle infielder and Nick Adenhart may get another shot as a 5th starter, but it doesn't look like the Angels are promoting any major impact players onto their major league roster in 2009.
Needs: Relief pitching -- the Angels are on the verge of losing K-Rod, they have no real depth in their bullpen. Jose Arredondo may be a closer next year, Scot Shields and Justin Speier are back, but that's about it.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Kelvim Escobar missed all of 2008 with shoulder surgery, but was optimistic that he'd be able to return in 2009.
Free agent ceiling: The Angels are likely to be factors with every major free agent. They'll make a bid on Sabathia, Teixeira, and probably make some effort to resign Francisco Rodriguez after he discovers the market temperature.
Texas Rangers
The Rangers made a splash with a deal that I thought was a slam dunk for Jon Daniels, landing Josh Hamilton for a pitcher with serious control problems and an elfin reliever. That pitcher became Edinson Volquez (and the minuscule Danny Ray Herrera pitched relatively well in limited opportunities), so even though Josh Hamilton dominated AL pitching most of the year, the trade's probably a wash. Unfortunately, it meant the Rangers were scoring 6 or 7 runs in defeats. The Rangers haven't had a great starting pitcher since moving to the Ballpark at Arlington and can count their sub-4.00 ERA starters in that time on one hand -- or at least on Antonio Alfonseca's hand. Free agents are: Milton Bradley, Jason Jennings, Ramon Vazquez, Jamey Wright
Most likely to return: Milton Bradley is a DH and seems unlikely to move to a place where he'd have to play outfield every day. He's burned bridges in Los Angeles, San Diego, and Cleveland. The Rangers may be the only team actively bidding for his services, and he has performed for them. He should be back.
Most likely to leave:The Diamondbacks have already specifically mentioned Ramon Vazquez as a possible replacement for Orlando Hudson at second base. If a team's that interested, they should be able to outbid the Rangers, who would use him solely as a fill-in.
Non-tender candidates:None.
Prospect on the rise: Neftali Feliz pitched extremely well in the minors and might have an outside shot at cracking the rotation out of spring training, Max Ramirez and Taylor Teagarden will either be major league catchers or trade bait in 2009. Thomas Diamond, the only player of the Rangers' DVD pitching prospects to remain a Ranger (while the others -- John Danks and Edinson Volquez -- have made impressive debuts for other teams), struggled in 2008 after 2007 Tommy John surgery, but may yet prove to be major league ready.
Needs: Pitching of any sort. Kevin Millwood hasn't been an ace except for one season in Cleveland, Vicente Padilla is maddeningly inconsistent, and besides Matt Harrison, the young guys the Rangers are tossing behind them have pretty low ceilings.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Kason Gabbard went down for the year with a bone spur in his elbow, surgery on that may sideline him in early 2009. Milton Bradley was healthy in 2008. Counting on that to happen in 2009 would be a fool's errand.
Free agent ceiling: Ben Sheets may be a Ranger at the end of the offseason, because Mike Maddux is now the pitching coach of the Rangers, and the Rangers could use any starter, even one who's prone to injuries.
Oakland Athletics
Contrary to what everyone is saying, the A's are not trading Matt Holliday. They wanted two first round picks and by acquiring a man who is certain to be a Type A free agent, they have acquired those picks. He'll be with the A's come hell or high water in September. Beane hasn't done it for a while, but he used to do it all the time -- Ricardo Rincon, Ray Durham, Keith Foulke, Octavio Dotel are all examples (I think, it may only be three of the four) -- he trades for players who are likely to warrant compensation and if he can re-sign them, he will. If not, welcome draft picks. The Holliday move is unlikely to be the finish since Lew Wolff is apparently okay with a payroll surge. Free agents are insignificant: Emil Brown, Alan Embree, Keith Foulke, Mike Sweeney, Frank Thomas.
Most likely to return: Frank Thomas played well enough to consider bringing him back, but he's also a DH-only player, so it's unlikely anyone outside of Oakland will pony up any dough. The DH spot is likely going to be Jack Cust, but if the A's bring back Thomas, Cust can remain the American League's worst left fielder and move Matt Holliday to right. It's not a good defensive alignment, but it'll score a lot more runs.
Most likely to leave:Alan Embree's option was declined, he's a left-handed reliever who's not terrible. He'll find that money elsewhere.
Non-tender candidates: Matt Murton is 27 and hasn't shown the bat he was supposed to offer, Rajai Davis is a pure speed player on a team that doesn't have much interest in stealing bases. Rob Bowen has little upside as a #2 catcher, unless the A's intend to deal Landon Powell.
Prospect on the rise: Aaron Cunningham figures to be in the running to play in the outfield for the A's in 2009, but since he doesn't hit for much power or show much prowess with stealing bases, this speaks more about the questionable state of affairs in the A's outfield.
Needs: Third base, outfielders, starting pitching. Eric Chavez is not a dependable player, Jack Hannahan is not good enough to replace him, and Cliff Pennington doesn't look to be much better. Even with Matt Holliday, the A's outfield is Matt Holliday, Ryan Sweeney, and Jack Cust, which would be perhaps the worst fielding outfield in the history of Major League baseball. Landing another meaningful bat that could play right field and ensure Cust is a full-time DH would go a lot toward making this team respectable. For all the talk that Greg Smith was dispensable, he may have been the A's best starting pitcher last year after Harden and Blanton were dealt. The A's could use a veteran starting pitcher who could bring a little dependability to a volatile rotation of virtual rookies like Gio Gonzalez, Dallas Braden, and Sean Gallagher.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Eric Chavez missed most of 2008 after shoulder surgery, but simply can't be counted on as a major league player at this time in his career. Justin Duchscherer is expected to be ready to pitch "during spring training", so even a modest setback could affect his availability at the start of the regular season.
Free agent ceiling: The Athletics have some money and have been known to make random free agent investments in the past (remember Esteban Loaiza?). Jason Giambi is rumored to be on the horizon, Rafael Furcal has as well, and Furcal would almost certainly be the top of the free agent pool for the A's.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners were supposed to contend last year. Whoops. Instead, they were one of the worst teams in baseball and got swindled on a deal for Erik Bedard that actually looked relatively favorable when the Mariners made it. Willie Bloomquist, Miguel Cairo, Raul Ibanez, and Jose Vidro are the Mariners' only free agents.
Most likely to return: Willie Bloomquist had far and away his best season in 2008. He's versatile enough to keep around since the team's not going to be getting much better in 2009. He's still unlikely to be back, but I'd give him considerably better odds than the others.
Most likely to leave:The Jose Vidro experiment is over. So is Jose Vidro's career.
Non-tender candidates: There has been talk that Erik Bedard may be the most impressive player non-tendered in my lifetime. Coming off surgery and likely to make significant money in arbitration, injury or not, there was talk last season of the Mariners cutting their losses and non-tendering Bedard. I don't think it will happen, but it is something the Mariners could consider if the prognosis gets worse in the next couple of weeks.
Prospect on the rise: Matt Tuiasasopo may hit the major leagues in 2009, particularly if the Mariners decide to deal Adrian Beltre. the other minor leaguers don't look to make an impact until until 2010.
Needs: First base, left and center field. Bryan LaHair may have made more contact than Richie Sexson, but he didn't produce anything to convince anyone he was a bona fide major league first baseman. Jeremy Reed finally produced enough to warrant a roster spot, but doesn't look like a star in center field. Wladamier Balantien hasn't looked like a player of major league caliber, which means the Mariners may need to look elsewhere to replace Raul Ibanez.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Erik Bedard is unlikely to be ready for the early part of the 2009 season, though the prognosis now has him returning by mid-season at least.
Free agent ceiling: This team's been making ill-advised buys for a while (Carlos Silva, Jarrod Washburn, Richie Sexson, the now comparatively successful Adrian Beltre), that'll pause for at least 2009.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
The Angels didn't just win a lot of games by beating up on a lousy division, they fared just as well against the AL East and Central. But they never really added up to a team that was going to scare you. They've still got good pitching, but the offense is pretty middling for a team that's invested so heavily in free agents. The Angels have a number of meaningful free agents: Garret Anderson, Jon Garland, Darren Oliver, Juan Rivera, Francisco Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira.
Most likely to return: Darren Oliver has pitched pretty well since landing in Anaheim, re-signing him will be a priority for the Angels simply because they can afford him.
Most likely to leave:Jon Garland was a puzzling acquisition for the Angels last season and he didn't work out any better than they could have expected. The Angels don't figure to have much interest in re-signing him.
Non-tender candidates: Ryan Budde is a 29-year-old non-prospect third catcher. With Hank Conger in the upper minors, there's little chance Budde makes it past December. He'll be outrighted or non-tendered.
Prospect on the rise: Brandon Wood and Kendry Morales aren't really prospects anymore, since neither of them are rookies. Sean Rodriguez may figure as a middle infielder and Nick Adenhart may get another shot as a 5th starter, but it doesn't look like the Angels are promoting any major impact players onto their major league roster in 2009.
Needs: Relief pitching -- the Angels are on the verge of losing K-Rod, they have no real depth in their bullpen. Jose Arredondo may be a closer next year, Scot Shields and Justin Speier are back, but that's about it.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Kelvim Escobar missed all of 2008 with shoulder surgery, but was optimistic that he'd be able to return in 2009.
Free agent ceiling: The Angels are likely to be factors with every major free agent. They'll make a bid on Sabathia, Teixeira, and probably make some effort to resign Francisco Rodriguez after he discovers the market temperature.
Texas Rangers
The Rangers made a splash with a deal that I thought was a slam dunk for Jon Daniels, landing Josh Hamilton for a pitcher with serious control problems and an elfin reliever. That pitcher became Edinson Volquez (and the minuscule Danny Ray Herrera pitched relatively well in limited opportunities), so even though Josh Hamilton dominated AL pitching most of the year, the trade's probably a wash. Unfortunately, it meant the Rangers were scoring 6 or 7 runs in defeats. The Rangers haven't had a great starting pitcher since moving to the Ballpark at Arlington and can count their sub-4.00 ERA starters in that time on one hand -- or at least on Antonio Alfonseca's hand. Free agents are: Milton Bradley, Jason Jennings, Ramon Vazquez, Jamey Wright
Most likely to return: Milton Bradley is a DH and seems unlikely to move to a place where he'd have to play outfield every day. He's burned bridges in Los Angeles, San Diego, and Cleveland. The Rangers may be the only team actively bidding for his services, and he has performed for them. He should be back.
Most likely to leave:The Diamondbacks have already specifically mentioned Ramon Vazquez as a possible replacement for Orlando Hudson at second base. If a team's that interested, they should be able to outbid the Rangers, who would use him solely as a fill-in.
Non-tender candidates:None.
Prospect on the rise: Neftali Feliz pitched extremely well in the minors and might have an outside shot at cracking the rotation out of spring training, Max Ramirez and Taylor Teagarden will either be major league catchers or trade bait in 2009. Thomas Diamond, the only player of the Rangers' DVD pitching prospects to remain a Ranger (while the others -- John Danks and Edinson Volquez -- have made impressive debuts for other teams), struggled in 2008 after 2007 Tommy John surgery, but may yet prove to be major league ready.
Needs: Pitching of any sort. Kevin Millwood hasn't been an ace except for one season in Cleveland, Vicente Padilla is maddeningly inconsistent, and besides Matt Harrison, the young guys the Rangers are tossing behind them have pretty low ceilings.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Kason Gabbard went down for the year with a bone spur in his elbow, surgery on that may sideline him in early 2009. Milton Bradley was healthy in 2008. Counting on that to happen in 2009 would be a fool's errand.
Free agent ceiling: Ben Sheets may be a Ranger at the end of the offseason, because Mike Maddux is now the pitching coach of the Rangers, and the Rangers could use any starter, even one who's prone to injuries.
Oakland Athletics
Contrary to what everyone is saying, the A's are not trading Matt Holliday. They wanted two first round picks and by acquiring a man who is certain to be a Type A free agent, they have acquired those picks. He'll be with the A's come hell or high water in September. Beane hasn't done it for a while, but he used to do it all the time -- Ricardo Rincon, Ray Durham, Keith Foulke, Octavio Dotel are all examples (I think, it may only be three of the four) -- he trades for players who are likely to warrant compensation and if he can re-sign them, he will. If not, welcome draft picks. The Holliday move is unlikely to be the finish since Lew Wolff is apparently okay with a payroll surge. Free agents are insignificant: Emil Brown, Alan Embree, Keith Foulke, Mike Sweeney, Frank Thomas.
Most likely to return: Frank Thomas played well enough to consider bringing him back, but he's also a DH-only player, so it's unlikely anyone outside of Oakland will pony up any dough. The DH spot is likely going to be Jack Cust, but if the A's bring back Thomas, Cust can remain the American League's worst left fielder and move Matt Holliday to right. It's not a good defensive alignment, but it'll score a lot more runs.
Most likely to leave:Alan Embree's option was declined, he's a left-handed reliever who's not terrible. He'll find that money elsewhere.
Non-tender candidates: Matt Murton is 27 and hasn't shown the bat he was supposed to offer, Rajai Davis is a pure speed player on a team that doesn't have much interest in stealing bases. Rob Bowen has little upside as a #2 catcher, unless the A's intend to deal Landon Powell.
Prospect on the rise: Aaron Cunningham figures to be in the running to play in the outfield for the A's in 2009, but since he doesn't hit for much power or show much prowess with stealing bases, this speaks more about the questionable state of affairs in the A's outfield.
Needs: Third base, outfielders, starting pitching. Eric Chavez is not a dependable player, Jack Hannahan is not good enough to replace him, and Cliff Pennington doesn't look to be much better. Even with Matt Holliday, the A's outfield is Matt Holliday, Ryan Sweeney, and Jack Cust, which would be perhaps the worst fielding outfield in the history of Major League baseball. Landing another meaningful bat that could play right field and ensure Cust is a full-time DH would go a lot toward making this team respectable. For all the talk that Greg Smith was dispensable, he may have been the A's best starting pitcher last year after Harden and Blanton were dealt. The A's could use a veteran starting pitcher who could bring a little dependability to a volatile rotation of virtual rookies like Gio Gonzalez, Dallas Braden, and Sean Gallagher.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Eric Chavez missed most of 2008 after shoulder surgery, but simply can't be counted on as a major league player at this time in his career. Justin Duchscherer is expected to be ready to pitch "during spring training", so even a modest setback could affect his availability at the start of the regular season.
Free agent ceiling: The Athletics have some money and have been known to make random free agent investments in the past (remember Esteban Loaiza?). Jason Giambi is rumored to be on the horizon, Rafael Furcal has as well, and Furcal would almost certainly be the top of the free agent pool for the A's.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners were supposed to contend last year. Whoops. Instead, they were one of the worst teams in baseball and got swindled on a deal for Erik Bedard that actually looked relatively favorable when the Mariners made it. Willie Bloomquist, Miguel Cairo, Raul Ibanez, and Jose Vidro are the Mariners' only free agents.
Most likely to return: Willie Bloomquist had far and away his best season in 2008. He's versatile enough to keep around since the team's not going to be getting much better in 2009. He's still unlikely to be back, but I'd give him considerably better odds than the others.
Most likely to leave:The Jose Vidro experiment is over. So is Jose Vidro's career.
Non-tender candidates: There has been talk that Erik Bedard may be the most impressive player non-tendered in my lifetime. Coming off surgery and likely to make significant money in arbitration, injury or not, there was talk last season of the Mariners cutting their losses and non-tendering Bedard. I don't think it will happen, but it is something the Mariners could consider if the prognosis gets worse in the next couple of weeks.
Prospect on the rise: Matt Tuiasasopo may hit the major leagues in 2009, particularly if the Mariners decide to deal Adrian Beltre. the other minor leaguers don't look to make an impact until until 2010.
Needs: First base, left and center field. Bryan LaHair may have made more contact than Richie Sexson, but he didn't produce anything to convince anyone he was a bona fide major league first baseman. Jeremy Reed finally produced enough to warrant a roster spot, but doesn't look like a star in center field. Wladamier Balantien hasn't looked like a player of major league caliber, which means the Mariners may need to look elsewhere to replace Raul Ibanez.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Erik Bedard is unlikely to be ready for the early part of the 2009 season, though the prognosis now has him returning by mid-season at least.
Free agent ceiling: This team's been making ill-advised buys for a while (Carlos Silva, Jarrod Washburn, Richie Sexson, the now comparatively successful Adrian Beltre), that'll pause for at least 2009.
NL West: Offseason Outlook
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers underachieved, didn't make the abominable deals that were rumored (Matt Kemp for Jack Wilson, anyone?) and were only stung by the predictably moronic signing of Andruw Jones. The others went relatively well. So what's left in the tank for the encore for this team? Well, there's talk that they want to move Russell Martin -- and only about half the remaining Dodgers are free agents. Joe Beimel, Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal, Nomar Garciaparra, Jason Johnson, Jeff Kent, Derek Lowe, Greg Maddux, Pablo Ozuna, Chan Ho Park, Brad Penny, Tanyon Sturtze, Mark Sweeney, and oh yeah, Manny Ramirez.
Most likely to return: Manny Ramirez seems a lock to return. He'd seem to be fourth or fifth at best on the Yankees' wish list after Sabathia, Teixeira, Derek Lowe, and A.J. Burnett and doesn't seem likely to get along with the management in New York. With Boston out of the picture, the Yankees are the only real option for Boras to use to drive the price up.
Most likely to leave:Brad Penny and Tanyon Sturtze were already told to get out, so we can assume they won't come back. Jeff Kent will probably retire. Rafael Furcal is targeted by a number of teams, and that may price him out of Los Angeles' plans.
Non-tender candidates:Danny Ardoin should be non-tendered, since the Dodgers are carrying a whopping five catchers on their 40-man roster even though their starting catcher played in 155 games. But with the number of free agents the Dodgers have, their 40-man roster will be sufficiently empty at Rule 5 time.
Prospect on the rise: James McDonald dazzled in the NLCS, shutting down the Phillies after they'd smacked around Chad Billingsley. He should get a shot at starting with Derek Lowe and Greg Maddux hitting free agency. Everyone else in the organization poised to have an impact...spent most of 2008 in the Majors.
Needs: 2B/SS/3B, relief pitching. Blake DeWitt is an acceptable major league starter at second base and showed some propensity for playing the position in the playoffs. But he's right now the top-listed player at both second and third. That will lead to some interesting infield defenses. The Dodgers are also in need of a shortstop, and preferably one considerably more durable than Rafael Furcal, who was fine when he played (3-error innings aside), but didn't play enough to make that a meaningful sample size. The outfield could use competence, since the available players to fill the Manny gap are Andruw Jones and Off Base Percentage factory Juan Pierre, but that'd be asking an awful lot. The relief corps is thin with Beimel, Maddux, and Park hitting free agency and McDonald potentially entering the rotation, so the Dodgers will need to add someone in that spot as well.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Andruw Jones' strained belt may sideline him for much of 2009 and will almost certainly prevent him from living up to the abortion of a contract Ned Colletti handed Scott Boras last year. Jason Schmidt's recovery from shoulder surgery has now taken the better part of two seasons, and it's hard to expect him to contribute in 2009, but the Dodgers will need him to come back strong.
Free agent ceiling: Manny Ramirez is the ceiling for the Dodgers, and if he leaves, the ceiling will likely be Derek Lowe. I don't think the Dodgers will pay much for free agents that aren't already Dodgers, considering Ned Colletti's last two smashing successes (Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones).
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks probably had their best shot at making the playoffs in the near future ruined by a disappointing finish to the 2008 season. Now, they're about to hemorrhage free agents and will be relying heavily on a 1-2-3 punch of Webb, Haren, and Scherzer to get them through a rough patch. The Diamondbacks have a number of free agents, including a pair of key position players, a Hall of Famer, and a potential closer: Tony Clark, Juan Cruz, Adam Dunn, David Eckstein, Orlando Hudson, Randy Johnson, Brandon Lyon.
Most likely to return: Brandon Lyon has expressed willingness to return, nearly everyone else on the list is too expensive.
Most likely to leave: Adam Dunn had a productive 2 months with the Diamondbacks (.889 OPS, 8 HR to make his fourth straight season hitting exactly 40 home runs). Although he seems to have been lost in the LF market while teams are rumored to be in the hunt for Pat Burrell or Raul Ibanez, Dunn's home runs aren't going to stay lost.
Non-tender candidates:Randy Johnson's an atypical non-tender case. He hasn't filed for free agency yet, but the Diamondbacks would have to tender him a contract for at least 80% of his 2008 salary to keep him from becoming a free agent by default. That'd be $10 million, so he's getting non-tendered. Chris "I wasn't Corky on Life Goes On" Burke would be a candidate after two consecutive lousy seasons, but the Diamondbacks don't have a replacement for Orlando Hudson signed for next year, so he may get the job.
Prospect on the rise: Josh Whitesell and Jamie D'Antona both smoked the ball in AAA Tucson last year. The only problems are that they play first base (already filled by Conor Jackson and Chad Tracy) and they play in the National League. If they get a shot, they could make an impact in 2009, but Conor Jackson needs to take to being a full-time left fielder and Chad Tracy will probably need to get hurt for both of them to stick on the major league roster.
Needs: Second base, starting pitching. Orlando Hudson is gone after 2008, David Eckstein is a sub-.700 OPS player who continues to get by on mistaken assessments of his clutchness (which was even more of a joke than usual in 2008 -- .729 OPS with bases empty, .649 with runners on). With Randy Johnson leaving and Doug Davis less than a year from chemotherapy, it'd be folly to go to the regular season with no more starting depth, though the Diamondbacks' budget won't accommodate much more than a few minor league deals to the Mark Redmans of the world.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Eric Byrnes' hamstring injury made him appear to be an even worse signing than he was.
Free agent ceiling: The Diamondbacks have already said they have less than $10 million to spend in the offseason. That pretty much rules out making a big splash, and rules out Orlando hudson, Adam Dunn, and probably even Randy Johnson. Brandon Lyon is an outside shot, but that might commit too much of the team's budget considering their needs. Ramon Vazquez/Brandon Lyon are probably the ceiling.
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies returned to real life in 2008, where teams with mediocre pitching and hitting didn't go to the World Series. They aren't far from the front of the NL West, even without Matt Holliday, though the trade probably moved them back.
Brian Fuentes, Matt Herges, Livan Hernandez, Adam Melhuse, Scott Podsednik, Glendon Rusch
Most likely to return: Matt Herges and Glendon Rusch are the only players you will plausibly see in Rockies' uniforms next year. I think Herges has the edge, since he's been with the Rnockies a couple of years and will generate less interest than Rusch, simply because Rusch throws with the correct arm.
Most likely to leave: It was a surprise to see Brian Fuentes remain a member of the Rockies past July, it'd be a heart attack inducer to see him re-sign there.
Non-tender candidates: None.
Prospect on the rise: With Ian Stewart cracking the Rockies lineup for part of 2008, the Rockies already graduated their top prospect. Dexter Fowler is blocked only by Ryan Spilborghs/Carlos Gonzalez from claiming an everyday spot in the Rockies' outfield. While he's not the same level of prospect as Gonzalez, he could still beat him out. Joe Koshansky could figure in the Rockies' plans after another solid season at AAA, although with Garret Atkins and Todd Helton still receiving paychecks from the Rockies, his playing time will be pretty sparse.
Needs: Relief pitching. Surprisingly, they don't really have any major holes. The starting rotation needs to be better, but the candidates from within (Aaron Cook, Jeff Francis, Ubaldo Jimenez, Frankly Morales, Greg Smith, Greg Reynolds, and Jorge de la Rosa) are adequate. The bullpen's still got Manny Corpas, Taylor Bucholz, and Jason Grilli. But they will need depth, particularly since three relief pitchers are free agents: Brian Fuentes, Matt Herges, and Glendon Rusch.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Todd Helton had lower back surgery in September, but he's ceased to be a major player in this lineup.
Free agent ceiling: Because the needs are pretty minimal, the Rockies aren't likely to invest money in any players. They're still rumored to be looking to move Garrett Atkins and Willy Taveras to cut payroll further.
San Francisco Giants
In the first season of the post-Barry Bonds era, the Giants found themselves as one of the most offensively inept teams in the major leagues. With the Giants finishing 28th and the A's finishing 30th in the league in OPS, the San Francisco Bay was starved of runs. Rich Aurilia and Omar Vizquel are the Giants' only major league free agents.
Most likely to return: Since there's only two, the answer is clearly Aurilia. Aurilia's versatility is helpful for a team with a lot of gaps, though his defense at 3B isn't particularly impressive.
Most likely to leave: The Giants declined Vizquel's option and were not subtle about his non-return. He may have another year in him and wash ashore in St. Louis or some other team in need of a shortstop, but he's hardly a sure thing to play in 2009 and will likely retire 343 hits short of 3,000.
Non-tender candidates: None.
Prospect on the rise: Pablo Sandoval isn't even a rookie any more, so he doesn't count. Travis Ishikawa may be a borderline prospect, but is likely to put together pretty pitiful numbers for a first baseman.
Needs: Everything except starting pitching. The Giants don't have any gaping holes, but it's because most of their positions would be considered a hole on other teams. Aaron Rowand is fine. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez are a superb core, Noah Lowry is effective enough when healthy, and Barry Zito was less awful than he was in 2007.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Noah Lowry missed all of 2008 with elbow surgery, but is expected to be back in 2009.
Free agent ceiling: The Giants are never afraid to overpay for players. They may be able to make a play for C.C. Sabathia or Manny Ramirez, though a lot may depend on the Yankees.
San Diego Padres
Trevor Hoffman, Mark Prior, Brett Tomko
Most likely to return: Tomko had control problems with the Padres, but fared well after arriving in San Diego. He's hardly a lock to return, but shouldn't cost the Padres much at this point.
Most likely to leave: Trevor Hoffman received an embarrassment of an offer just after the Padres paid $9 million to Brian Giles (admittedly, Giles had a $3 million buyout, so the choice was between paying $9 million or $3 million). He's a near-lifetime Padre having had brief runs in the Reds minor league system before going to Florida in the expansion draft, but he's going to finish his career elsewhere.
Non-tender candidates:None.
Prospect on the rise: Will Venable may be able to play a role in the Padres' outfield in 2009, after a productive year at AAA. Though he's probably blocked by Brian Giles and Chase Headley, he could be a part of the big picture. Other than that, the Padres are pretty devoid of high-level prospects.
Needs: Catching, starting pitching, shortstop. The Padres are completely empty behind the plate, with only Nick Hundley on the 40-man roster. Jake Peavy and Chris Young are a dynamic pairing, but Cha-Seung Baek and Josh Banks are hardly world-beaters and there's nothing behind him.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: No major injuries will be following the Padres into 2009.
Free agent ceiling: The floor's the limit in San Diego. If they're not willing to pay Trevor Hoffman $4 million or Jake Peavy his below-market deal, it's unlikely this team's making a play for any major free agents.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers underachieved, didn't make the abominable deals that were rumored (Matt Kemp for Jack Wilson, anyone?) and were only stung by the predictably moronic signing of Andruw Jones. The others went relatively well. So what's left in the tank for the encore for this team? Well, there's talk that they want to move Russell Martin -- and only about half the remaining Dodgers are free agents. Joe Beimel, Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal, Nomar Garciaparra, Jason Johnson, Jeff Kent, Derek Lowe, Greg Maddux, Pablo Ozuna, Chan Ho Park, Brad Penny, Tanyon Sturtze, Mark Sweeney, and oh yeah, Manny Ramirez.
Most likely to return: Manny Ramirez seems a lock to return. He'd seem to be fourth or fifth at best on the Yankees' wish list after Sabathia, Teixeira, Derek Lowe, and A.J. Burnett and doesn't seem likely to get along with the management in New York. With Boston out of the picture, the Yankees are the only real option for Boras to use to drive the price up.
Most likely to leave:Brad Penny and Tanyon Sturtze were already told to get out, so we can assume they won't come back. Jeff Kent will probably retire. Rafael Furcal is targeted by a number of teams, and that may price him out of Los Angeles' plans.
Non-tender candidates:Danny Ardoin should be non-tendered, since the Dodgers are carrying a whopping five catchers on their 40-man roster even though their starting catcher played in 155 games. But with the number of free agents the Dodgers have, their 40-man roster will be sufficiently empty at Rule 5 time.
Prospect on the rise: James McDonald dazzled in the NLCS, shutting down the Phillies after they'd smacked around Chad Billingsley. He should get a shot at starting with Derek Lowe and Greg Maddux hitting free agency. Everyone else in the organization poised to have an impact...spent most of 2008 in the Majors.
Needs: 2B/SS/3B, relief pitching. Blake DeWitt is an acceptable major league starter at second base and showed some propensity for playing the position in the playoffs. But he's right now the top-listed player at both second and third. That will lead to some interesting infield defenses. The Dodgers are also in need of a shortstop, and preferably one considerably more durable than Rafael Furcal, who was fine when he played (3-error innings aside), but didn't play enough to make that a meaningful sample size. The outfield could use competence, since the available players to fill the Manny gap are Andruw Jones and Off Base Percentage factory Juan Pierre, but that'd be asking an awful lot. The relief corps is thin with Beimel, Maddux, and Park hitting free agency and McDonald potentially entering the rotation, so the Dodgers will need to add someone in that spot as well.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Andruw Jones' strained belt may sideline him for much of 2009 and will almost certainly prevent him from living up to the abortion of a contract Ned Colletti handed Scott Boras last year. Jason Schmidt's recovery from shoulder surgery has now taken the better part of two seasons, and it's hard to expect him to contribute in 2009, but the Dodgers will need him to come back strong.
Free agent ceiling: Manny Ramirez is the ceiling for the Dodgers, and if he leaves, the ceiling will likely be Derek Lowe. I don't think the Dodgers will pay much for free agents that aren't already Dodgers, considering Ned Colletti's last two smashing successes (Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones).
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks probably had their best shot at making the playoffs in the near future ruined by a disappointing finish to the 2008 season. Now, they're about to hemorrhage free agents and will be relying heavily on a 1-2-3 punch of Webb, Haren, and Scherzer to get them through a rough patch. The Diamondbacks have a number of free agents, including a pair of key position players, a Hall of Famer, and a potential closer: Tony Clark, Juan Cruz, Adam Dunn, David Eckstein, Orlando Hudson, Randy Johnson, Brandon Lyon.
Most likely to return: Brandon Lyon has expressed willingness to return, nearly everyone else on the list is too expensive.
Most likely to leave: Adam Dunn had a productive 2 months with the Diamondbacks (.889 OPS, 8 HR to make his fourth straight season hitting exactly 40 home runs). Although he seems to have been lost in the LF market while teams are rumored to be in the hunt for Pat Burrell or Raul Ibanez, Dunn's home runs aren't going to stay lost.
Non-tender candidates:Randy Johnson's an atypical non-tender case. He hasn't filed for free agency yet, but the Diamondbacks would have to tender him a contract for at least 80% of his 2008 salary to keep him from becoming a free agent by default. That'd be $10 million, so he's getting non-tendered. Chris "I wasn't Corky on Life Goes On" Burke would be a candidate after two consecutive lousy seasons, but the Diamondbacks don't have a replacement for Orlando Hudson signed for next year, so he may get the job.
Prospect on the rise: Josh Whitesell and Jamie D'Antona both smoked the ball in AAA Tucson last year. The only problems are that they play first base (already filled by Conor Jackson and Chad Tracy) and they play in the National League. If they get a shot, they could make an impact in 2009, but Conor Jackson needs to take to being a full-time left fielder and Chad Tracy will probably need to get hurt for both of them to stick on the major league roster.
Needs: Second base, starting pitching. Orlando Hudson is gone after 2008, David Eckstein is a sub-.700 OPS player who continues to get by on mistaken assessments of his clutchness (which was even more of a joke than usual in 2008 -- .729 OPS with bases empty, .649 with runners on). With Randy Johnson leaving and Doug Davis less than a year from chemotherapy, it'd be folly to go to the regular season with no more starting depth, though the Diamondbacks' budget won't accommodate much more than a few minor league deals to the Mark Redmans of the world.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Eric Byrnes' hamstring injury made him appear to be an even worse signing than he was.
Free agent ceiling: The Diamondbacks have already said they have less than $10 million to spend in the offseason. That pretty much rules out making a big splash, and rules out Orlando hudson, Adam Dunn, and probably even Randy Johnson. Brandon Lyon is an outside shot, but that might commit too much of the team's budget considering their needs. Ramon Vazquez/Brandon Lyon are probably the ceiling.
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies returned to real life in 2008, where teams with mediocre pitching and hitting didn't go to the World Series. They aren't far from the front of the NL West, even without Matt Holliday, though the trade probably moved them back.
Brian Fuentes, Matt Herges, Livan Hernandez, Adam Melhuse, Scott Podsednik, Glendon Rusch
Most likely to return: Matt Herges and Glendon Rusch are the only players you will plausibly see in Rockies' uniforms next year. I think Herges has the edge, since he's been with the Rnockies a couple of years and will generate less interest than Rusch, simply because Rusch throws with the correct arm.
Most likely to leave: It was a surprise to see Brian Fuentes remain a member of the Rockies past July, it'd be a heart attack inducer to see him re-sign there.
Non-tender candidates: None.
Prospect on the rise: With Ian Stewart cracking the Rockies lineup for part of 2008, the Rockies already graduated their top prospect. Dexter Fowler is blocked only by Ryan Spilborghs/Carlos Gonzalez from claiming an everyday spot in the Rockies' outfield. While he's not the same level of prospect as Gonzalez, he could still beat him out. Joe Koshansky could figure in the Rockies' plans after another solid season at AAA, although with Garret Atkins and Todd Helton still receiving paychecks from the Rockies, his playing time will be pretty sparse.
Needs: Relief pitching. Surprisingly, they don't really have any major holes. The starting rotation needs to be better, but the candidates from within (Aaron Cook, Jeff Francis, Ubaldo Jimenez, Frankly Morales, Greg Smith, Greg Reynolds, and Jorge de la Rosa) are adequate. The bullpen's still got Manny Corpas, Taylor Bucholz, and Jason Grilli. But they will need depth, particularly since three relief pitchers are free agents: Brian Fuentes, Matt Herges, and Glendon Rusch.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Todd Helton had lower back surgery in September, but he's ceased to be a major player in this lineup.
Free agent ceiling: Because the needs are pretty minimal, the Rockies aren't likely to invest money in any players. They're still rumored to be looking to move Garrett Atkins and Willy Taveras to cut payroll further.
San Francisco Giants
In the first season of the post-Barry Bonds era, the Giants found themselves as one of the most offensively inept teams in the major leagues. With the Giants finishing 28th and the A's finishing 30th in the league in OPS, the San Francisco Bay was starved of runs. Rich Aurilia and Omar Vizquel are the Giants' only major league free agents.
Most likely to return: Since there's only two, the answer is clearly Aurilia. Aurilia's versatility is helpful for a team with a lot of gaps, though his defense at 3B isn't particularly impressive.
Most likely to leave: The Giants declined Vizquel's option and were not subtle about his non-return. He may have another year in him and wash ashore in St. Louis or some other team in need of a shortstop, but he's hardly a sure thing to play in 2009 and will likely retire 343 hits short of 3,000.
Non-tender candidates: None.
Prospect on the rise: Pablo Sandoval isn't even a rookie any more, so he doesn't count. Travis Ishikawa may be a borderline prospect, but is likely to put together pretty pitiful numbers for a first baseman.
Needs: Everything except starting pitching. The Giants don't have any gaping holes, but it's because most of their positions would be considered a hole on other teams. Aaron Rowand is fine. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez are a superb core, Noah Lowry is effective enough when healthy, and Barry Zito was less awful than he was in 2007.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: Noah Lowry missed all of 2008 with elbow surgery, but is expected to be back in 2009.
Free agent ceiling: The Giants are never afraid to overpay for players. They may be able to make a play for C.C. Sabathia or Manny Ramirez, though a lot may depend on the Yankees.
San Diego Padres
Trevor Hoffman, Mark Prior, Brett Tomko
Most likely to return: Tomko had control problems with the Padres, but fared well after arriving in San Diego. He's hardly a lock to return, but shouldn't cost the Padres much at this point.
Most likely to leave: Trevor Hoffman received an embarrassment of an offer just after the Padres paid $9 million to Brian Giles (admittedly, Giles had a $3 million buyout, so the choice was between paying $9 million or $3 million). He's a near-lifetime Padre having had brief runs in the Reds minor league system before going to Florida in the expansion draft, but he's going to finish his career elsewhere.
Non-tender candidates:None.
Prospect on the rise: Will Venable may be able to play a role in the Padres' outfield in 2009, after a productive year at AAA. Though he's probably blocked by Brian Giles and Chase Headley, he could be a part of the big picture. Other than that, the Padres are pretty devoid of high-level prospects.
Needs: Catching, starting pitching, shortstop. The Padres are completely empty behind the plate, with only Nick Hundley on the 40-man roster. Jake Peavy and Chris Young are a dynamic pairing, but Cha-Seung Baek and Josh Banks are hardly world-beaters and there's nothing behind him.
Injuries that could figure in 2009: No major injuries will be following the Padres into 2009.
Free agent ceiling: The floor's the limit in San Diego. If they're not willing to pay Trevor Hoffman $4 million or Jake Peavy his below-market deal, it's unlikely this team's making a play for any major free agents.
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