Ryan Dempster re-signs with the Cubs

Ryan Dempster has returned to the Chicago Cubs for 4 years and $52 million. Dempster is coming off a career year and then some, having gone 17-9 with a 2.96 ERA and 187 Ks in his first year back in the rotation after several years as an inconsistent closer.

Dempster is an enigma, he's had two good seasons as a starter, but has been mostly ineffective in his career. He seemed to resolve most of the control problems that had haunted him in Florida, but also didn't give up much in the way of hits.

Assuming Dempster is anything vaguely resembling the pitcher he was in 2008, the contract is pretty reasonable for the Cubs. There's a $4 million signing bonus, $8 million in 2009, $12.5 million in 2010, $13.5 million in 2011, and a player option in 2012 for $14 million. That's a big assumption, though, Dempster has never shown any real consistency.

As much as the press made of Dempster's effectiveness at home, his home/road splits are actually pretty similar, except for his record on the road (a pedestrian 3-3, despite a 3.13 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the road). Dempster's biggest weakness, besides control problems in the past, is his struggle with left-handed batters. (1.76 WHIP, .282 BAA career) Last year, however, he kept lefties in check to the tune of 1.29 WHIP, .243 BAA. He also managed to keep balls in the yard, finishing with the 8th best home run rate among qualifying pitchers. That said, it's likely unsustainable that he can maintain that rate, considering his career numbers and the fact that he's not really a heavy-sinker pitcher. His BABIP was just under league average, so it's unlikely that he's a complete fluke.

The $13 million he averages over the life of this deal is just a touch more than the Reds are paying Francisco Cordero, so if Dempster proves to drop off a bit and have to return to his old role as a closer who blows 5-6 saves a season, the Cubs are still in relatively good hands. And so long as he is anything like the pitcher they had last season, he's a solid investment who's already had his Tommy John surgery and is probably going to hold up for the life of his deal better than free agent alternatives like A.J. Burnett, who is expected to command more than this deal.

The Dempster deal really seems to make the Jake Peavy trade very unlikely, since the Cubs' rotation is pretty well set with a number of other options in the organization.

Projected Cubs rotation:
RHP Carlos Zambrano
RHP Ryan Dempster
RHP Rich Harden
LHP Ted Lilly
RHP Jason Marquis/RHP Sean Marshall/RHP Rich Hill (remember him?)