NL West: Offseason Outlook

NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers underachieved, didn't make the abominable deals that were rumored (Matt Kemp for Jack Wilson, anyone?) and were only stung by the predictably moronic signing of Andruw Jones. The others went relatively well. So what's left in the tank for the encore for this team? Well, there's talk that they want to move Russell Martin -- and only about half the remaining Dodgers are free agents. Joe Beimel, Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal, Nomar Garciaparra, Jason Johnson, Jeff Kent, Derek Lowe, Greg Maddux, Pablo Ozuna, Chan Ho Park, Brad Penny, Tanyon Sturtze, Mark Sweeney, and oh yeah, Manny Ramirez.

Most likely to return: Manny Ramirez seems a lock to return. He'd seem to be fourth or fifth at best on the Yankees' wish list after Sabathia, Teixeira, Derek Lowe, and A.J. Burnett and doesn't seem likely to get along with the management in New York. With Boston out of the picture, the Yankees are the only real option for Boras to use to drive the price up.

Most likely to leave:Brad Penny and Tanyon Sturtze were already told to get out, so we can assume they won't come back. Jeff Kent will probably retire. Rafael Furcal is targeted by a number of teams, and that may price him out of Los Angeles' plans.

Non-tender candidates:Danny Ardoin should be non-tendered, since the Dodgers are carrying a whopping five catchers on their 40-man roster even though their starting catcher played in 155 games. But with the number of free agents the Dodgers have, their 40-man roster will be sufficiently empty at Rule 5 time.

Prospect on the rise: James McDonald dazzled in the NLCS, shutting down the Phillies after they'd smacked around Chad Billingsley. He should get a shot at starting with Derek Lowe and Greg Maddux hitting free agency. Everyone else in the organization poised to have an impact...spent most of 2008 in the Majors.

Needs: 2B/SS/3B, relief pitching. Blake DeWitt is an acceptable major league starter at second base and showed some propensity for playing the position in the playoffs. But he's right now the top-listed player at both second and third. That will lead to some interesting infield defenses. The Dodgers are also in need of a shortstop, and preferably one considerably more durable than Rafael Furcal, who was fine when he played (3-error innings aside), but didn't play enough to make that a meaningful sample size. The outfield could use competence, since the available players to fill the Manny gap are Andruw Jones and Off Base Percentage factory Juan Pierre, but that'd be asking an awful lot. The relief corps is thin with Beimel, Maddux, and Park hitting free agency and McDonald potentially entering the rotation, so the Dodgers will need to add someone in that spot as well.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Andruw Jones' strained belt may sideline him for much of 2009 and will almost certainly prevent him from living up to the abortion of a contract Ned Colletti handed Scott Boras last year. Jason Schmidt's recovery from shoulder surgery has now taken the better part of two seasons, and it's hard to expect him to contribute in 2009, but the Dodgers will need him to come back strong.

Free agent ceiling: Manny Ramirez is the ceiling for the Dodgers, and if he leaves, the ceiling will likely be Derek Lowe. I don't think the Dodgers will pay much for free agents that aren't already Dodgers, considering Ned Colletti's last two smashing successes (Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones).

Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks probably had their best shot at making the playoffs in the near future ruined by a disappointing finish to the 2008 season. Now, they're about to hemorrhage free agents and will be relying heavily on a 1-2-3 punch of Webb, Haren, and Scherzer to get them through a rough patch. The Diamondbacks have a number of free agents, including a pair of key position players, a Hall of Famer, and a potential closer: Tony Clark, Juan Cruz, Adam Dunn, David Eckstein, Orlando Hudson, Randy Johnson, Brandon Lyon.

Most likely to return: Brandon Lyon has expressed willingness to return, nearly everyone else on the list is too expensive.

Most likely to leave: Adam Dunn had a productive 2 months with the Diamondbacks (.889 OPS, 8 HR to make his fourth straight season hitting exactly 40 home runs). Although he seems to have been lost in the LF market while teams are rumored to be in the hunt for Pat Burrell or Raul Ibanez, Dunn's home runs aren't going to stay lost.

Non-tender candidates:Randy Johnson's an atypical non-tender case. He hasn't filed for free agency yet, but the Diamondbacks would have to tender him a contract for at least 80% of his 2008 salary to keep him from becoming a free agent by default. That'd be $10 million, so he's getting non-tendered. Chris "I wasn't Corky on Life Goes On" Burke would be a candidate after two consecutive lousy seasons, but the Diamondbacks don't have a replacement for Orlando Hudson signed for next year, so he may get the job.

Prospect on the rise: Josh Whitesell and Jamie D'Antona both smoked the ball in AAA Tucson last year. The only problems are that they play first base (already filled by Conor Jackson and Chad Tracy) and they play in the National League. If they get a shot, they could make an impact in 2009, but Conor Jackson needs to take to being a full-time left fielder and Chad Tracy will probably need to get hurt for both of them to stick on the major league roster.

Needs: Second base, starting pitching. Orlando Hudson is gone after 2008, David Eckstein is a sub-.700 OPS player who continues to get by on mistaken assessments of his clutchness (which was even more of a joke than usual in 2008 -- .729 OPS with bases empty, .649 with runners on). With Randy Johnson leaving and Doug Davis less than a year from chemotherapy, it'd be folly to go to the regular season with no more starting depth, though the Diamondbacks' budget won't accommodate much more than a few minor league deals to the Mark Redmans of the world.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Eric Byrnes' hamstring injury made him appear to be an even worse signing than he was.

Free agent ceiling: The Diamondbacks have already said they have less than $10 million to spend in the offseason. That pretty much rules out making a big splash, and rules out Orlando hudson, Adam Dunn, and probably even Randy Johnson. Brandon Lyon is an outside shot, but that might commit too much of the team's budget considering their needs. Ramon Vazquez/Brandon Lyon are probably the ceiling.

Colorado Rockies
The Rockies returned to real life in 2008, where teams with mediocre pitching and hitting didn't go to the World Series. They aren't far from the front of the NL West, even without Matt Holliday, though the trade probably moved them back.
Brian Fuentes, Matt Herges, Livan Hernandez, Adam Melhuse, Scott Podsednik, Glendon Rusch

Most likely to return: Matt Herges and Glendon Rusch are the only players you will plausibly see in Rockies' uniforms next year. I think Herges has the edge, since he's been with the Rnockies a couple of years and will generate less interest than Rusch, simply because Rusch throws with the correct arm.

Most likely to leave: It was a surprise to see Brian Fuentes remain a member of the Rockies past July, it'd be a heart attack inducer to see him re-sign there.

Non-tender candidates: None.

Prospect on the rise: With Ian Stewart cracking the Rockies lineup for part of 2008, the Rockies already graduated their top prospect. Dexter Fowler is blocked only by Ryan Spilborghs/Carlos Gonzalez from claiming an everyday spot in the Rockies' outfield. While he's not the same level of prospect as Gonzalez, he could still beat him out. Joe Koshansky could figure in the Rockies' plans after another solid season at AAA, although with Garret Atkins and Todd Helton still receiving paychecks from the Rockies, his playing time will be pretty sparse.

Needs: Relief pitching. Surprisingly, they don't really have any major holes. The starting rotation needs to be better, but the candidates from within (Aaron Cook, Jeff Francis, Ubaldo Jimenez, Frankly Morales, Greg Smith, Greg Reynolds, and Jorge de la Rosa) are adequate. The bullpen's still got Manny Corpas, Taylor Bucholz, and Jason Grilli. But they will need depth, particularly since three relief pitchers are free agents: Brian Fuentes, Matt Herges, and Glendon Rusch.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Todd Helton had lower back surgery in September, but he's ceased to be a major player in this lineup.

Free agent ceiling: Because the needs are pretty minimal, the Rockies aren't likely to invest money in any players. They're still rumored to be looking to move Garrett Atkins and Willy Taveras to cut payroll further.

San Francisco Giants
In the first season of the post-Barry Bonds era, the Giants found themselves as one of the most offensively inept teams in the major leagues. With the Giants finishing 28th and the A's finishing 30th in the league in OPS, the San Francisco Bay was starved of runs. Rich Aurilia and Omar Vizquel are the Giants' only major league free agents.

Most likely to return: Since there's only two, the answer is clearly Aurilia. Aurilia's versatility is helpful for a team with a lot of gaps, though his defense at 3B isn't particularly impressive.

Most likely to leave: The Giants declined Vizquel's option and were not subtle about his non-return. He may have another year in him and wash ashore in St. Louis or some other team in need of a shortstop, but he's hardly a sure thing to play in 2009 and will likely retire 343 hits short of 3,000.

Non-tender candidates: None.

Prospect on the rise: Pablo Sandoval isn't even a rookie any more, so he doesn't count. Travis Ishikawa may be a borderline prospect, but is likely to put together pretty pitiful numbers for a first baseman.

Needs: Everything except starting pitching. The Giants don't have any gaping holes, but it's because most of their positions would be considered a hole on other teams. Aaron Rowand is fine. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez are a superb core, Noah Lowry is effective enough when healthy, and Barry Zito was less awful than he was in 2007.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Noah Lowry missed all of 2008 with elbow surgery, but is expected to be back in 2009.

Free agent ceiling: The Giants are never afraid to overpay for players. They may be able to make a play for C.C. Sabathia or Manny Ramirez, though a lot may depend on the Yankees.

San Diego Padres
Trevor Hoffman, Mark Prior, Brett Tomko

Most likely to return: Tomko had control problems with the Padres, but fared well after arriving in San Diego. He's hardly a lock to return, but shouldn't cost the Padres much at this point.

Most likely to leave: Trevor Hoffman received an embarrassment of an offer just after the Padres paid $9 million to Brian Giles (admittedly, Giles had a $3 million buyout, so the choice was between paying $9 million or $3 million). He's a near-lifetime Padre having had brief runs in the Reds minor league system before going to Florida in the expansion draft, but he's going to finish his career elsewhere.

Non-tender candidates:None.

Prospect on the rise: Will Venable may be able to play a role in the Padres' outfield in 2009, after a productive year at AAA. Though he's probably blocked by Brian Giles and Chase Headley, he could be a part of the big picture. Other than that, the Padres are pretty devoid of high-level prospects.

Needs: Catching, starting pitching, shortstop. The Padres are completely empty behind the plate, with only Nick Hundley on the 40-man roster. Jake Peavy and Chris Young are a dynamic pairing, but Cha-Seung Baek and Josh Banks are hardly world-beaters and there's nothing behind him.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: No major injuries will be following the Padres into 2009.

Free agent ceiling: The floor's the limit in San Diego. If they're not willing to pay Trevor Hoffman $4 million or Jake Peavy his below-market deal, it's unlikely this team's making a play for any major free agents.