Thursday Trade Blitz; Gregg; Swisher; Damaso (not Andy) Marte re-signs

Deal:
The Chicago Cubs trade for ousted Marlins' closer Kevin Gregg, giving up relief pitching prospect Jose Ceda.

Analysis:
Kevin Gregg was an effective closer up until about August, when the wheels seemed to come off. Although he'd blown 4 saves in the first two months of the season, every one of those saves was a 1-run save. On July 3-4, Gregg blew two straight saves, allowing two runs in each appearance even at that, he settled in, but completely fell apart in August, compiling an ERA of 10.18 after ERAs of 2.51, 2.08, 2.38, and 2.92 in previous months. The Marlins pulled him from the closer's role and replaced him with Matt Lindstrom, who converted all five of his save opportunities.

Gregg improved by leaps and bounds once he got in Florida, and it looks at first glance like it was all traceable to his suddenly unhittable stuff, because batters went from hitting .278 and .280 his last two seasons with the Angels to .206 and .203 his two seasons in Florida. His home run rate dropped dramatically from 10 to 3 after two years in Miami. But, as fangraphs shows us, Gregg's resurgence probably has a lot more to do with good luck (or good team defense -- but in Florida, I'll assume it was luck) than great improvement as a pitcher.

Though his other numbers make it look like all is fine in Kevin Gregg-land, the sharp drop in his K rate indicates that Gregg may be in trouble. After striking out 1.03 an inning in 2007 to 0.84 K/IP, while his walk rate soared from an already career high 0.40 BB/IP in 2007 to a 0.54 BB/IP in 2008. This is a frightening combination, particularly for a pitcher who can be expected to allow more home runs in the Friendly Confines than in the pitcher-friendly confines of Dolphins Stadium. So there's good reason to believe the Cubs aren't getting a dynamite closer/setup man.

What did they give up? Jose Ceda, a 21 year-old fireballing prospect who compiled a 2.08 ERA in AA Tennessee last year. Ceda was rated as the #4 prospect in the Cubs' organization behind untouchable Josh Vitters, NL Rookie of the Year Geovany Soto, and outfielder Tyler Colvin (Ceda was rated ahead of players like Jeff Samardzija, Eric Patterson, and Sean Gallagher -- the latter two of whom were traded in the Rich Harden deal). Though Ceda struggled in the Florida State League, when he got to AA, he blew away hitters, striking out 42 in 30.1 innings. He has struggled with his control at times (31 BB in 46 IP at low-A Peoria in 2007 and about 0.50 BB/IP in A/AA ball last year) and has a tendency to gain weight (last year wavering between 247 and his now-listed 275 pounds).

It's hard to see how this deal makes sense for the Cubs. Only a couple days after making an astonishing deal for low-level prospects who couldn't contribute in the near future, Larry Beinfest makes a deal for a pitcher who's probably only a year away by dealing an overrated closer that seems to have gotten by on luck for the last two years. Gregg may be okay for the Cubs, but doesn't offer much more than was available on the free agent market for what Gregg will cost post-arbitration, and may offer less than Ceda might have in the Majors this year. And Ceda is only 21.

Now, the Cubs have announced that Kerry Wood won't be back. Don't worry about getting swept in the playoffs next year, Cubs fans. With this kind of management, you should finish about fourth.

Deal:
Damaso Marte re-signs with the Yankees for 3 years, $12 million.

Analysis:
I was surprised the Yankees didn't pick up Marte's $6 million option, but they got a potentially better deal by giving Marte a couple extra years.

Marte was an odd player last year thanks to some sample sizes, because lefties hit him considerably better than right-handers (this is not historically the case, however). He didn't pitch particularly well for the Yankees (5.40 ERA, 1.31 WHIP), but most of it could be attributed to a sudden spike in walks (10 in 18.1 innings for the Yankees after 16 in 46.2 IP for the Pirates). At $4 million per, Marte could be a good value and probably compares favorably to available left-handed relievers like Alan Embree and about even with Jeremy Affeldt (who signed for $4 million last year). While Dennys Reyes may have been available more cheaply, Marte has more upside and can fit a role beyond a left-handed specialist.

Deal:
Nick Swisher and Kanekoa Texeira are traded to the New York Yankees for Wilson Betemit, Jeff Marquez, and Jhonny Nunez.

Analysis:
Nick Swisher and Jhonny Nunez are the new chlamydia.

It seems like everyone in baseball goes to bed and wakes up with Nick Swisher, he of the legendary "Moneyball" draft where Billy Beane slandered players such as B.J. Upton, Scott Kazmir, Cole Hamels, and Prince Fielder (all, as you know, monumental failures) while drafting first-ballot Hall of Famer Jeremy Brown (at least I assume Golden Tee has a hall of fame) Swisher has been traded twice in the last calendar year and now joins the Yankees, possibly as a center fielder, possibly as a right fielder, and possibly as a first baseman.

Swisher was underwhelming in Chicago, with a .219 batting average, .742 OPS, 24 HR, 69 RBI in 153 games. He almost earned the photo on his MLB Player Card with a pitiful performance. (Note also the obviously superimposed Yankees cap). I've never been a fan of Swisher's, but he's been an adequate corner outfielder in the past. If he's the best the Yankees can do at first base, I'd be pretty astonished.

Kanekoa Texeira is not Mark Teixeira and is not a first baseman, and is not a bad-looking prospect. He served as a closer at high-A Winston-Salem and posted a sub-1.00 ERA before making the move to AA and posting a 2.01 in 22.1 IP there. He's still only 22, but his minor league numbers are impressive and he already has an accomplished slider. He wasn't a prospect in the top 30 for the White Sox according to Baseball America last year, but there's little doubt that was going to change.

The White Sox's biggest acquisition in this deal is Wilson Betemit. The White Sox have holes at every infield spot unless Konerko turns on again this year, so Betemit gives them a little versatility, but doesn't offer much in the way of offense or defense. His best positions appear to be third and first, the two spots that the White Sox seem to have filled with Josh Fields and Paul Konerko. He can play some at second base, but has never been a first option there.

2008 was Betemit's worst season, where he notched a whopping .289 OBP (how he slipped by Dayton Moore's trade radar, I'll never know), drawing 6 walks in 189 at bats. Once hyped as something of a 5-tool prospect, he now has only one recognizable tool that would separate him from the average 4A player, and that tool (power) is only marginal (10 HR is his career high, since no team has seen him fit to play everyday).

Jeff Marquez is a fallen prospect in the Yankees organization. A first round pick in the 2004 draft, Marquez pitched well at AA in 2007, but fell off sharply in AAA and watched his K rate decline even farther, striking out 33 in 80.2 IP. Marquez lives off his ability to throw strikes, but doubled his home run rate in 2008 (12 HR allowed in 80.1 after 11 HR allowed in 155 IP in 2007). For a sinkerballer, a rising home run rate is never encouraging. He's only 24, so another trip through AAA might help him learn to put away hitters, but his high-end projection doesn't seem particularly high. It's a strain to see him figuring in the White Sox rotation in the next couple of years.

Jhonny Nunez has faced more than his share of trades, having been traded to the Nationals from the Dodgers for Marlon Anderson, then being traded from the Nats to the Yankees for AG and Washington insider Alberto Gonzale(s)z. Now he's joining his fourth organization before he's spent a full season in AA. Nunez struggled as a starter at high-A Potomac in the extremely pitcher-friendly Carolina League, but excelled as a reliever in AA.

So why make this deal with Betemit as a centerpiece if you're the White Sox? My best guess is that the White Sox hate Jim Callis and his pristine Baseball America Prospect Handbook, which will identify Marquez as a Yankees prospect. Other than that, they achieve nothing -- they hurt their offense, don't make their team any younger, and fill no immediate needs, while removing an everyday player from their lineup in favor of Jerry Owens and Brian Anderson.