AL Central: Offseason Outlook

Offseason outlook:
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox were one of the oldest teams in baseball in 2008, and that's not going to change too much in 2009. They're cutting loose a number of injury-prone players and will have an almost entirely new infield from the 2008 opening day lineup. Free agents are Orlando Cabrera, Joe Crede, Ken Griffey Jr., Toby Hall, Horacio Ramirez, and Juan Uribe.

Most Likely To Return: Toby Hall is likely to be re-signed, but couldn't justify the price tag on his option.

Most Likely to Leave: Griffey seems certain to be gone and may have had his career finished because of his prohibitive contract. Joe Crede is almost certainly on his way out, even though Josh Fields didn't show anything in 2008 to warrant a third base job. His promise in 2007 will guarantee that Crede and his bad back will clutter another roster in need of a David Bell clone with more power.

Non-tender candidates: If this were any other team, I'd be surprised to see Dewayne Wise offered a major league contract, though most of Ken Williams' moves over the last few years have been pretty astonishing. Jerry Owens and Brian Anderson seem to duplicate each others' limited skill set and one of them may have worn out his welcome.

Prospect on the rise: Clayton Richard is a near-lock for the rotation, especially while the White Sox are looking to trade Javier Vazquez. Chris Getz may seize the 2B job if the Sox don't resign Orlando Cabrera or Juan Uribe, forcing Alexei Ramirez to SS in 2009. Does Josh Fields still count? He's likely to swat 25 home runs for the White Sox in 2009, play weak defense at third base, and have trouble getting on base, but he's going to play every day.

Needs: Youth. The White Sox will have holes opening at 2B, SS, 3B, had a disaster at 1B with Konerko last year, have the worst defensive RF in the game (and no other place to put him), and an old pitching staff. They need to acquire a versatile infielder to help ensure the infield is in decent shape, since the only guarantee is Alexei Ramirez. Jerry Hairston Jr. would make sense for a team that needs help at all the positions he's played in recent years, though his 2008 is too aberrant for words.

Injuries that figure in 2009: Andrew Sisco will miss much of the year after Tommy John surgery. This is straining the definition of this category.

Free agent ceiling: They may re-sign one of their own, but I don't see the White Sox as major players in the free agent market. Keith Foulke or a Doug Brocail type might make sense.

Minnesota Twins
The Twins smoke and mirrored their way into the playoffs again, only to blow their lead and lose a one-game playoff to the White Haired Sox. The core of the team is unlikely to change much, the only free agents are Eddie Guardado, Nick Punto, Dennys Reyes, Adam Everett.

Most Likely to Return: I feel like Nick Punto is likely to return. I have no basis to conclude this except that he's a Twins kind of player -- not particularly good, but he is white, lacks meaningful tools, and he hustles (Hell, check out his player card on MLB.com -- that looks like the exact reason that idiots like Tim McCarver think the Twins win games). He can't really fill holes at shortstop or third base, but he's an adequate stopgap. I wouldn't be surprised to see any of these guys come back to the Twins.

Most Likely to Leave: Dennys Reyes may have priced himself out of the Twins' plans by being relatively effective and putting up an ERA that looks useful. Eddie Guardado may want to try the weak closer market and see if he can get a contract from a team in need of a closer.

Non-tender candidates: I don't see any.

Prospect on the rise: Again, I'm not seeing much -- the closest thing they have to a player who didn't already make his mark on the majors in 2008 is probably Kevin Mulvey, who pitched relatively well in AAA. Then again, with a rotation that's already full of young arms (Baker, Liriano, Blackburn, Slowey and Perkins all earned their down spots with good seasons in 2008) that's relegated Boof Bonser to long relief, it's hard to see Mulvey serving as much more than middling trade bait to get a bat. Ditto for Phillip Humber, who proved that the Twins got a raw deal in missing out on Mike Pelfrey.

Needs: SS/3B, relief pitching -- The Twins have accepted less offensive production on the left side of their infield for years, it's not likely to change. If the Twins decided they were comfortable with Michael Cuddyer at 3B, they'd be set, but I'd be surprised if they were willing to settle on his defensive weakness paired with Brendan Harris at SS. If Reyes leaves, the Twins need a lefty to pair with Craig Breslow, who almost certainly overachieved last year, and need a bounceback year from Matt Guerrier.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Pat Neshek's torn ulnar collateral ligament put the Twins bullpen in a tough spot, with Neshek's role falling on Matt Guerrier. He's expected to return for spring training and should be ready to go by opening day. Michael Cuddyer had an injury-plagued 2008 and that may have contributed to his ineffectiveness. If he's healthy, it could be a big turnaround for the club.

Free agent ceiling: Because the Twins aren't really overrun with needs, their ceiling is likely very low. A middle reliever -- be it Reyes, Doug Brocail (who the Twins will almost certainly not sign because of his type A status), or some equivalent -- is probably their biggest investment.

Cleveland Indians

The Indians dealt their two most meaningful free agents and got an embarrassment of not-immediately-helpful riches in return. Though it's not likely the team is building around Matt LaPorta and Carlos Santana just yet, those players are likely to influence the Tribe's strategy in 2009, while the club is waiting out Dellucci's contract and making a final decision on Andy Marte. The free agents for the club are Juan Rincon, Brendan Donnelly, Scott Elarton, Sal Fasano.

Most Likely to Return: None of these guys is likely to surface again, although it wouldn't be astonishing for Elarton to return after missing much of the season with a non-baseball injury or medical condition that the Indians didn't disclose. Most likely to leave: Juan Rincon is as good as gone after showing no real ability to come through in the bullpen last year. Fasano doesn't fit the roster with a surplus of catching, but may get a minor league deal to work out with the club in hopes of catching on elsewhere.Non-tender candidates: Josh Barfield may have run out his opportunities with the Tribe, having accomplished nothing in his two year tenure. While he may have some residual trade value, the Indians might elect to watch him leave rather than risk losing a Jordan Brown or Chuck Lofgren to the Rule 5 draft. Zach Jackson seemed a lock to be non-tendered when he was acquired, but a couple decent starts at the end of September mean he's likely to compete for a starting spot with Jeremy Sowers and Aaron Laffey.

Prospect on the rise: Adam Miller has been on the radar for what seems like a decade for the Indians, but has been beset by injuries. Next year, he's going to have to make the major league roster and hang on as a 12th man in the bullpen, because his options are gone. Or, more likely, he'll find his way onto the 60-day DL. John Meloan may play a meaningful role in the bullpen for the Tribe, though Eric Wedge didn't show him many opportunities in September. Carlos Santana will likely play a few games in September after scoring a .999 OPS as a catcher in high A ball last season.

Needs: Relief pitching, third base, a seasoned starter, and production from corner outfield spots and DH. The Tribe's bullpen regressed way past the mean last year as Borowski imploded, Betancourt went from elite to little more than a 4A pitcher -- due in no small part to a career high in walks, and Kobayashi folded in high pressure situations. By June, the bullpen, Sabathia's April struggles, and injuries to Carmona and Westbrook had already sunk a team that many expected to go to the World Series. Although Miller and Meloan may fill out the right-handed side of the bullpen, the Indians need a left-hander to pair with Rafael Perez who may see closing opportunities. Jeremy Affeldt would make a lot of sense. Third base has been a stopgap position since Travis Fryman, that's unlikely to change in the offseason, though the Indians may overpay to get Casey Blake back. The Indians aren't likely to invest in corner outfielders or DH competitors, so the improvement will have to come in. You can rest assured that Milton Bradley won't be joining the Tribe, even though his skill set seems ideal for a team lacking in meaningful pop against left-handed pitching.

Injuries that figure in 2009: Carmona struggled through injuries to his hip in 2008, but should be ready to go in 2009. Jake Westbrook may miss the entire 2009 season, but should be available at mid-season after Tommy John surgery that ruined a season that looked extremely optimistic.Free agent ceiling: Orlando Hudson is probably a high-end projection for the Indians, who have shown reluctance to spend money on free agents in the past. Mark Shapiro has already mentioned Casey Blake and has chased Trevor Hoffman in the past. It's possible that the Indians could get involved in the bidding for Brian Fuentes or Francisco Rodriguez if the market response is considerably more tepid than the current forecast. Chad Cordero would be a good match, but is likely Anaheim-bound.

Kansas City Royals
The Royals are going in the wrong direction, and Dayton Moore may yet make Allard Baird look like a wizard. The free agent blows will be minimal, since only Mark Grudzielanek is a free agent.

Most likely to return: None. (This neglects the obvious fact that Grudzielanek, as a member of a class of one is in fact most likely to return. I just don't think they're re-signing him.)

Most likely to leave: Mark Grudzielanek -- he's the very definition of serviceable -- as I'd suspected, his OPS+ was a flawless 100. He's probably done in Kansas City to make room for Esteban German, Alberto Callaspo, Tony Pena, and the impressive Mike Aviles to fill two jobs.

Non-tender candidates: It's hard to envision who the Royals would non-tender, since there's so many players who seem plausible. So...let's start. Shane Costa, Joey Gathright, Tony Pena, Ross Gload, Jason Smith, Luke Hudson, Brandon Duckworth, and Ryan Braun.

Prospect on the rise: Kila Ka'ahuie has had a pretty significant rise in the Royals' plans, but the Jacobs acquisition means he's likely to be a part-time player at best and is ticketed for lovely Omaha. Let me once again say it. Dayton Moore is an idiot. Idiot idiot idiot. Mitch Maier seems to be a perennial prospect and is on the Justin Huber track to have the Royals' organization kill his career in favor of middling players like Joey Gathright and the $10 million Jose Guillen, but he may get a shot.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: None that I can see. Carlos Rosa's elbow soreness gives you some cause for alarm, but he's not likely a 2009 rotation candidate anyway.

Needs: Hey, how about a competent first baseman? Too late. Pitching (especially relief pitching) and catcher are needs, though the Royals are apparently content with the dreadful Miguel Olivo as a starting catcher. The starting pitching available on the free agent market isn't likely to upgrade from the Royals' available options, so they're likely to stand pat or add a few minor pieces to the bullpen, which is still a complete mess before Soria.

Free agent ceiling: A low-ceiling starter lost in the mix -- like Randy Wolf -- might be lured to pitch in Kansas City, but the Royals will have to substantially overpay to make it happen. Guillermo Mota, Dennys Reyes, Doug Brocail, maybe even Brandon Lyon could figure in the Royals' bullpen. I wouldn't hold my breath, Royals fan(s).

Detroit Tigers
It takes chutzpah to make the deal of a lifetime to acquire a huge bat like Miguel Cabrera and get Dontrelle Willis thrown in as a throw away and then find a way to lose to the Kansas City Royals. Having absolutely no pitching was the key, and the Tigers should be on pace for more of the same in 2009. Kyle Farnsworth, Casey Fossum, Freddy Garcia, Todd Jones, Edgar Renteria, and Vance Wilson are all free agents.

Most likely to return: Freddy Garcia chose to sign with the Tigers in the hopes of restarting his major league career. He wasn't awful, so it'd be surprising to see the pitching-starved Tigers wave goodbye. He wasn't that good either, so it's unlikely he's going to see 7 figure deals heading his way from anyone else.

Most likely to leave: The ink on Edgar Renteria's ticket out of Detroit is pretty well dry. He isn't a great candidate for any team, his impatience has finally caught up to him, and his inability to steal bases has stripped him of much of his perceived residual value. Todd Jones is retiring, but that doesn't really count as "leaving," per se. Most of the Tigers' pitchers didn't do anything last year and they are still Tigers pitchers.

Non-tender candidates: Nate Robertson may be a candidate to be set loose, but the Tigers are so pitching-starved that they're unlikely to kick him to the curb just yet.

Prospect on the rise: Jeff Larish is likely to get major league playing time at first base, third base, and DH. He's not going to produce much more than a Ryan Garko type, but that would be enough to justify including him in the Tigers' lineup. Rick Porcello is on the radar, but with the Tigers looking unlikely to contend, there's no need to rush him.

Needs: starting pitching, relief pitching, catching, shortstop. Bonderman and Verlander will be okay again at some point and Armando Galarraga was quite good in 2008. That still leaves the tigers at least one starter short, even if Zach Miner pays off. The Tigers have no one to fill the catching spot and their only experienced catcher is a free agent. The bullpen is dependent on injury-plagued vets like Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney and has no depth whatsoever. Catching is a void, shortstop is likely to be Brandon Inge unless the Tigers make some sort of move to fill the position.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Macay McBride is coming off Tommy John surgery and will miss part of 2009, Joel Zumaya continues to struggle with a litany of injuries, and Jeremy Bonderman needs to show he's recovered from arm surgery. Gary Sheffield's shoulder may also be a factor, since his contract is simply too large to move to anyone.

Free agent ceiling: I don't think the Tigers are signing any major league free agents bigger than maybe a Gregg Zaun.