NL Central: offseason outlook

Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are underproducing at a surprising number of spots for a team that won nearly 100 games in 2008 (2B/SS/CF/RF). The Cubs face a number of free agents: Henry Blanco, Ryan Dempster, Jim Edmonds, Chad Fox, Bobby Howry, Jon Lieber, Daryle Ward (mutual option), and Kerry Wood.

Most likely to return: Kerry Wood seems probable to return after having a mostly successful year as the Cubs' closer. With Trevor Hoffman entering the already saturated market for big money closers, the Cubs are probably Wood's best option.

Most likely to leave: Bob Howry is probably on his way out of Chicago after a largely ineffective 2008 campaign (5.35 ERA) and Jon Lieber is on his way to another minor league contract or retirement.

Non-tender candidates: Koyie Hill is a 29 year old non-prospect at catcher, he's not likely to be kept on the 40-man roster since the Cubs may re-sign Henry Blanco or turn over backup duties to the slugging AAA catcher Jake Fox, who clubbed 31 homers last year at Iowa.

Prospect on the rise: Micah Hoffpauir could be a meaningful bat in right field for the Cubs if he can play the position well enough to stick. His strikeout rate is extremely high (24 in 73 AB), but his power and on-base potential so vastly exceeds what Fukudome produced that he may be worth a long look. Jeff Samardzija was over-hyped in the playoffs and only the Cubs' rapid elimination kept him from suffering the same fate as David Price -- having one great performance in October blown up by sportswriters into a career of near-inevitable Cy Young Awards.

Needs: Right field, center field, pitching depth. For every bit as embarrassing as it was to see Jason Varitek be chosen by the players for the 2008 All-Star game, the fans voting in Kosuke Fukudome was little better, since there actually were outfielders who played well in 2008. Fukudome is a mediocre player with more power than So Taguchi, but who showed little to commend himself as a major league hitter past May. The other spots are only needs if the Cubs don't re-sign their own free agents. Jim Edmonds isn't great, but he played adequately in center field for the Cubs, Ryan Dempster isn't worth what the Cubs will have to pay (and got some Cy Young votes today that I'd have given to Edinson Volquez), but is likely to pitch well enough to bring back if the Cubs don't trust Rich Hill.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: I'm not seeing any.

Free agent ceiling: The Cubs are probably going to stay out of the free agent market, beyond possibly re-signing Dempster and Wood. There is talk that the Tribune Company has already decided they can't sell the entire team in one transaction because of economic issues, so there's little reason to believe the Cubs are going to expand payroll. Their involvement almost certainly caps out at the A.J. Burnett/Derek Lowe/Ryan Dempster tier of free agents.

Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers mortgaged their future a bit by trading for C.C. Sabathia, who did everything necessary to get the team to the playoffs where the streaky lineup and bad pitching setup (Sabathia unavailable until Game 2 -- and even then on his fifth straight start on short rest) cost them much of a shot of derailing the Phillies. In the meantime, about 50% of the major league roster is entering free agency: Russell Branyan, Craig Counsell, Ray Durham, Eric Gagne, Gabe Kapler, Mike Lamb, Guillermo Mota, C.C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Brian Shouse, and Salomon Torres. (Incidentally, the Brewers' web site is selling things that say "Wild card!" on them...like coffee mugs and picture frames -- a great gift for the mentally unstable psychopaths in your life -- and no one else).

Most likely to return: Gabe Kapler was a useful and productive role player for the Brewers but is unlikely to get a starting job in the majors, so he seems like a probable returnee.

Most likely to leave: Salomon Torres just retired, so we can cross him off the list. Ben Sheets seems to have angered a lot of people in Milwaukee with his frequent injury problems and his unavailability for the NLDS is probably the final straw. Although he's been a relatively talented pitcher, his undependability really doesn't suit the Brewers fan stereotype I envision, who like their players dirty, dingy, and in the lineup. C.C. Sabathia still strikes me as certainly out of Milwaukee, though I'm not buying that he'll sign with the Yankees.

Non-tender candidates: Unless the Brewers feel like Vinny Rottino or Angel Salome is going to take over as the #2 catcher, none. If Rottino is the guy, then Mike Rivera is on his way out.

Prospect on the rise: Mat Gamel may get a shot to play third base in 2009, which could return Bill Hall to the super-sub role he played in 2005 or even replace Weeks at 2B. Gamel was allegedly a target in the Sabathia deal, but the Brewers were unwilling to part with him.

Needs: Pitching. The Brewers are fine in the outfield, though Mike Cameron being worth $10 million still boggles my mind. But they're facing the loss of Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia. While their remaining rotation of Gallardo, Suppan, Bush, Parra, and McClung might be passable, adding a starter in the Randy Wolf mode could shift McClung to the bullpen and give the team more versatility. With most of the 2008 bullpen on the free agent list above, they'll need to make substantial investments in the free agent market just to stand pat.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Rickie Weeks ended up missing the NLDS with a torn meniscus in his knee. While he's likely to be ready for spring training in 2009, it may limit his speed. Chris Capuano missed 2008 with a torn ligament in his elbow and will likely miss a portion of 2009 as well. Yovani Gallardo still needs to build up his stamina after having missed nearly all of 2008 with a torn ACL. David Riske, the most predictable thing in the now-barren Brewers 'pen, had late season surgery on his pitching elbow to remove a bone spur, but will almost certainly be ready for Spring Training.

Free agent ceiling: The Brewers allegedly made a huge offer to Sabathia, but unless he accepts it, I don't think they're going to be players in the free agent market beyond simply replacing the parts they're losing. Even then, I think the prospect-heavy organization may be more inclined to seek trades for pre-free agency types like Huston Street.

Houston Astros
The Astros looked dreadful early on, stung by the Brad Lidge trade that produced modest dividends for the Astros (Geoff Geary did notch a 2.52 ERA, but Michael Bourn provided nothing (.288 OBP) at the top of the lineup) and a cringeworthy debut from catcher J.R. Towles. Powered by an astounding season from Lance Berkman and a resurgence from Roy Oswalt's slow start, the Astros nearly finished their season in October. Their looming free agents are useful pieces, but not exactly cornerstones: Brad Ausmus, Doug Brocail, Mark Loretta, Randy Wolf.

Most likely to return: Although the Astros declined a reasonably priced option on Doug Brocail at $3.25 million, Brocail is a year-round Houston resident and isn't a big-ticket free agent for any clubs (though he would fit in a number of bullpens). Wolf may well return as well.

Most likely to leave: If Brad Ausmus is going to play in 2009, it will be in a location closer to his home in San Diego. My gut is that he'll call the Mariners and see if he can take over as a player-manager starting tomorrow.

Non-tender candidates: None.

Prospect on the rise: J.R. Towles is going to have to seize the catcher's job in Houston in 2009. After a dreadful start to the season, Towles spent most of the year back at AAA. Drew Sutton had a nice season at AA ball and may be in line to spell or displace the woeful Kaz Matsui by September. The Astros signed Taiwanese closer Chia-Jen Lo, but he sounds like he's a couple years away. It's hard to tell with any certainty, though.

Needs: Catcher, center field, starting pitching. The only thing the Astros will likely target in free agency is pitching, because they still have J.R. Towles and Michael Bourn to fill the first two slots. Those players' production in 2008 is the reason to believe these are team needs, though. Behind Roy Oswalt, the Astros have no sure thing starters -- Brandon Backe registered a 6.05 ERA, Wandy Rodriguez missed another stretch of time with injuries, and Brian Moehler only made the rotation because of injury.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Chris Sampson needed non-Tommy John elbow surgery that will likely sideline him for at least a month of the regular season in 2009. Geoff Geary had surgery on a torn abdominal muscle and on his hip right after the season ended. While he should be ready by spring training, rehabbing the injuries may leave him in less than optimal condition for the season.

Free agent ceiling: Andy Pettitte or Randy Wolf are probably the top of the line for the Astros, who turned in a surprising season on the backs of unexpectedly competent performances from Kaz Matsui and Ty Wigginton.

St. Louis Cardinals
The forgotten story of 2008 is that the Cardinals, not the Cubs, led the NL Central for much of the season. It wasn't until the Brewers acquired Sabathia and the Cubs landed Rich Harden that the tide started to turn on the Cardinals. The Cards face a number of potential defections, none of which is likely to be particularly damaging: Juan Encarnacion, Jason Isringhausen, Cesar Izturis, Braden Looper, Felipe Lopez, Mark Mulder, Russ Springer, Ron Villone

Most likely to return: Felipe Lopez resurrected his season once landing with the Cardinals (.385/.425/.538) and provides defensive versatility, being ham-handed at both second base and shortstop. Since both positions are wastelands in the Cardinals organization right now, Lopez makes a lot of sense. Russ Springer had a career year for the Cardinals with a 2.32 ERA in 70 games for the Cardinals. He's considering retirement, but if he returns, it'll certainly be to the Cardinals.

Most likely to leave: Mark Mulder wasn't Mozeliak's guy in the first place, it wouldn't be surprising to see him end up back with Walt Jocketty in Cincinnati. In the meantime, Mulder's said he won't sign anywhere until he's ready to pitch. Cesar Izturis didn't make many fans in St. Louis and has too little upside to consider keeping.

Non-tender candidates: None.

Prospect on the rise: Jason Motte may be the best reliever in the Cardinals organization in 2009 and he certainly looked solid in 2008, making 12 appearances with a 0.82 ERA. In AAA, he struck out an astonishing 110 batters in 66 2/3 innings. So it sure looks like he may be ready. Colby Rasmus was supposed to be the center fielder of 2008. Instead, he sputtered in the minor leagues, finally got on track, and then got injured. His star has probably fallen in St. Louis, but he's a valuable trade piece and may make the major league roster at some point in 2009.

Needs: Middle infielders, a starter, and relief pitching. Chris Perez is likely to take the reins as the closer for the Cardinals at some point in the next two years, but it seems likely that the Cardinals would like to get someone more experienced in that bullpen while they're on the verge of contending. If they lose Villone and Springer, the bullpen will be pretty empty unless the Cardinals make moves.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Chris Carpenter's health pretty much dictates the Cardinals' rotation. A rotation headed by Wainwright and Carpenter is good. A rotation headed by Wainwright and Kyle Lohse or Todd Wellemeyer is bad. Chris Duncan's neck injuries sank most of his season, but if he returns healthy, the Cardinals have a formidable outfield of Ludwick/Ankiel/Duncan/Schumacker/Barton with Rasmus on the horizon.

Free agent ceiling: The Cardinals will likely make an offer to a free agent closer -- more likely to be Brian Fuentes than K-Rod. That's probably as much as they can spend, though, especially after overpaying horribly for Kyle Lohse (4 years, $41 million).

Cincinnati Reds
The Reds were dragged down by a dreadful year from Aaron Harang, a woeful start for the eventually-effective Bronson Arroyo, and a dearth of production from catcher, shortstop, and center field. The bullpen woes of years past were ameliorated a bit, but still loom over a team on the verge of losing effective relievers to free agency. The Reds are laden with free agents: David Weathers, Jeremy Affeldt, Paul Bako, Josh Fogg, Jerry Hairston, Mike Lincoln, Kent Mercker, Corey Patterson, Javier Valentin.

Most likely to return: Jerry Hairston had a career year with the Reds and got a chance to play every day when he was healthy. As one of the two Dusty Baker specials the Reds brought in near the end of spring training, he knows he'll have a lengthy opportunity to play in Cincinnati.

Most likely to leave: Corey Patterson was a favorite of Dusty Baker's, reminding the Reds just why Wayne Krivsky was so foolish to have hired Dusty Baker. Patterson is probably en route to Japan or a minor league deal after a woeful 2008. Paul Bako won't be back.

Non-tender candidates: God willing, Andy Phillips. In other words, no chance of any.

Prospect on the rise: Homer Bailey no longer counts, since he's become something of a marginal prospect at best. Daryl Thompson may have a role on the major league club after showing something in his debut start with the Reds, but will have to beat out Micah Owings for the fifth spot in the rotation. Chris Dickerson showed off some of his tremendous potential in 2008 and won't have much competition to push him in 2008. Ryan Hanigan wasn't a major prospect in the organization before last season, but looks poised to be the Reds' everyday catcher barring a misguided acquisition of Ivan Rodriguez or Jason Varitek.

Needs: Catcher, shortstop, outfield depth. The black hole behind the plate for the Reds was horrific in 2008. David Ross, Paul Bako, and Javier Valentin mustered a whopping 13 home runs and a .230 batting average. Although Ryan Hanigan showed promise in September, the Reds need someone else behind the plate since Devin Mesoraco is probably two years away. If Ryan Freel and Norris Hopper can stay healthy, the Reds may have an adequate outfield, but that's a bet that not even Pete Rose would make.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Alex Gonzalez's knee fracture robbed Reds' fans of his particular brand of offensive ineptitude in 2008, Jeff Keppinger looked lousy after breaking his own knee. Ryan Freel's injuries took him out of commission for 2008 and Norris Hopper barely made an appearance before tearing his ulnar collateral ligament and missed much of 2008.

Free agent ceiling: The Reds were a surprise player in signing Francisco Cordero last year, but don't seem likely to make a big investment again this year because the market for players who could really improve the team is pretty sparse. After dealing Griffey and Dunn, though, the money's there. I'd say that there's a 1 in 20 chance that Raul Ibanez, Bobby Abreu, or Pat Burrell play home games in Great American Ballpark next year, but other than that, re-signing Weathers and Affeldt would be the biggest investments Jocketty should be able to justify. If the Reds do attempt to make a splash, it will probably be in signing one of the broken-down catchers -- Varitek or Rodriguez, so Reds fans should probably hope for a very placid offseason.

Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates traded their best player in 2008, got Nate McLouth to win a gold glove as the worst defensive center fielder in the Majors, and got another LaRoche brother for their fans to turn on. The good news? This team isn't getting any worse and Chris Antonetti has made some solid moves in his first season as GM. Now just watch him sign Derek "Operation shutdown" Bell. Free agents for the Pirates: Chris Gomez, Jason Michaels, Doug Mientkiewicz, and Luis Rivas.

Most likely to return: Probably Mientkiewicz. He was versatile and dropped the attitude in Pittsburgh, playing first and third base, and compiled a solid OBP (.374). He's got absolutely no home run power, but he's not a drain on this team's offense. He'll likely be back.
Jason Michaels fell a long way in a big hurry, but the Pirates seem interested in bringing him back. His .652 OPS shouldn't fit any team's plans, though he did hit remarkably well with runners in scoring position (.321/.365/.548), so perhaps Neal Huntington worships at the illusory altar of clutch? If so, be ready with the fetal position, Bucs fans.

Most likely to leave: Chris Gomez is a serviceable enough utility infielder that he should catch on with a team a little more likely to contend and add a 9th major league club to his resume.

Non-tender candidates: Not around here.

Prospect on the rise: Andrew McCutchen could stand to improve his Juan Pierre-like stolen base technique (34 SB in 53 attempts at AAA Indianapolis), but doesn't seem likely to get much out of another trip to Indianapolis next year. With the Pirates' outfield decimated by the injury to Brandon Moss and dependence on Nate McLouth's apparently golden glove, they could use another catalyst. The real bad news is that there are no pitchers on the horizon, so another 6th place finish is nearly certain.

Needs: Jack Wilson's retirement speech, outfielders, starting pitching. Jack Wilson continues to be rumored in trades for honest-to-god major leaguers (this year's was Matt Kemp), but it's impossible to get around his aggressive mediocrity (.687 career OPS). If there's a team who will take him, the Pirates need to move him and get the money they're paying him back in their bank accounts. After trading Xavier Nady and Jason Bay in 2008, it's unsurprising there's no corner outfielders ready to go in the system, but Brandon Moss and Steve Pearce are not even acceptable as stopgap players. If McCutchen gets the CF job and moves McLouth to LF, things look a lot better, but the team still needs someone who can be productive. The starting pitchers the Pirates have assembled have shown nothing to indicate that they were who they were purported to be. Ross Ohlendorf and Jeff Karstens are in the mix now, Ian Snell probably has a guranteed spot after a shockingly awful season (1.76 WHIP), this is a team in need of help. Zach Duke was bad last year, but only bad. He's in. Maholm was actually decent. He's in.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Brandon Moss will probably miss at least a month of the regular season after late-season surgery on his knee. Phil Dumatrait missed 2008 with shoulder surgery and will likely still be rehabbing as Spring Training rolls around.

Free agent ceiling: The Pirates will continue their trend of bargain-basement shopping. There's no real reason for them to try to invest in big-time players because they'd have to overpay badly for them in any event. There's probably going to be a lot of Josh Fogg/Sidney Ponson signings, but few guaranteed major league deals.