AL East: Offseason Outlook

Offseason outlook:
AL East
Tampa Bay Rays:
Rocco Baldelli, Cliff Floyd, Eric Hinske and Trever Miller are all free agents. Floyd and Miller both had their options declined, Cliff Floyd will likely end the not-so-illustrious career that peaked when he was on the cover of Beckett Baseball Card Monthly in May 1994. Oh, and he won a World Series, but I'm pretty sure he had little to do with that. Curse you, Craig Counsell/Edgar Renteria/Tony Fernandez/Jose Mesa.

Most Likely to Return: Hinske, I guess, though I'd put those odds considerably longer than the Rays repeating the AL pennant. Hinske played relatively well for half a season but fell off a cliff in the second half and was only on the World Series roster after Floyd was removed for an injury.

Most likely to leave: Trever Miller's option got declined not because it was prohibitively expensive, but because the Rays feel they have a bullpen surplus where J.P. Howell and possibly David Price will provide left-handed arms. He'll find another job.

Non-tender candidates: Jonny Gomes continued his decline in 2008, finishing with an OPS+ of 73 and finishing the year in AAA. Though the Rays will lose Cliff Floyd and possibly Rocco Baldelli, Gomes' defensive deficiencies and offensive ineptitude may lead to him finding a new line of work in the offseason.

Prospect on the rise: Enough has been said about David Price for now. Jeff Niemann has taken longer than expected, but looks to be ready for the major leagues, Wade Davis and James Houser are probably less than a year away as well. Though Reid Brignac didn't hit much at AAA, he may figure on the club as a utility infielder in 2009.

Needs: A right fielder, DH, and a backup catcher. Catcher isn't a pressing position if Dioner Navarro maintains his durability and bat, but both seem unlikely. The Rays could probably live through a season of Gabe Gross, Ben Zobrist, Fernando Perez, and maybe Willy Aybar in right field, but it wouldn't take too much to improve upon it. Similarly, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Rays pick up a few minor league free agents to try and fill the DH spot.

Injuries that could figure in 2009:

Free agent ceiling: The rumors linking the Rays to Pat Burrell seem pretty implausible. Though the team could use a corner outfielder/DH, their budget won't likely expand that much.

Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have a number of free agents, but none of whom played a pivotal role in the playoff run in 2008. Free agents are: Paul Byrd, Sean Casey, Bartolo Colon, Alex Cora, Mark Kotsay, David Ross, Curt Schilling, Mike Timlin, Jason Varitek.

Most likely to return: Alex Cora is the only player on this list who I could envision the Red Sox making a serious effort to re-sign aside from the woeful Varitek, who was one of the worst players in Major League Baseball last year. Cora would help as a defensive replacement and could play behind Jed Lowrie and Dustin Pedroia if the Red Sox can trade Julio Lugo's ugly contract in the offseason.

Most likely to leave: Mark Kotsay played pretty poorly for the Red Sox after being brought in to fill an outfield role and eventually being trainsitioned to first base. He had played adequately for the Braves, but his injury-prone nature and limited power and speed have drastically reduced his value on the market.

Non-tender candidates: The Red Sox are unlikely to non-tender anyone, since their roster is likely to thin out after the free agent signing period begins.

Prospect on the rise: Lars Anderson may resolve the need for a first baseman if Youkilis should move to third to replace Lowell.

Needs: The Red Sox need little help anywhere, but could use another arm in the bullpen to put with Papelbon, Okajima, Justin Masterson, Manny Delcarmen, and Javier Lopez. They could also use another option at either first base or third base to cover for Mike Lowell's injury.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Mike Lowell's hip may limit his production in 2009, if he bounces back to play at all. Josh Beckett's health will be a topic of perpetual discussion between now and spring training. Julio Lugo's torn quadricep will limit his already minimal trade value and J.D. Drew is rarely healthy for an entire season.

Free agent ceiling: The Red Sox are unlikely to make any major signings since Sabathia doesn't fill a need, Manny Ramirez is unwelcome, and Mark Teixeira is expensive. Brian Fuentes may interest the Red Sox as a setup man, but the cost may exceed his value to the Red Sox.

New York Yankees
The Yankees are an old team with no pitching and they're on the verge of losing some of the most talented pieces they have. The Yankees' free agents are a tale of misguided acquisitions or players who could no longer deliver -- Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, Damaso Marte, Chad Moeller, Mike Mussina, Carl Pavano, Andy Pettitte, Sidney Ponson, Ivan Rodriguez, Richie Sexson

Most likely to return: Mike Mussina will decide whether he will retire or pitch for the Yankees in 2009, but I think the opportunity to start opening day to open a new Yankee Stadium will persuade him to stick around for one more year. I think Giambi and Abreu may also return, since the market for both players will be tepid and the Yankees don't have ready-made players at 1B or RF, but much depends on whether Teixeira signs with the Yankees.

Most likely to leave: Carl Pavano is a reminder of Cashman's failed efforts over the last decade as a GM, and I don't think there's any way the Yankees' fans would permit his return.

Non-tender candidates: The Yankees will want to move some of their current roster, but are unlikely to non-tender anyone like Melky Cabrera, who they continue to pitch in trades.

Prospect on the rise: Austin Jackson could take the CF job from the mishmash of Brett Gardner and Melky Cabrera at some point in 2009. He didn't do anything remarkable at Trenton (OPS of .773), but his primary competitor (Gardner) has less power and didn't show a propensity to reach base in the majors.

Needs: Pitching, first base, and center field. For a team with a mammoth payroll, so much is tied up in the left side of the infield that it masks the woeful production the Yankees can expect from their current projected outfield of Johnny Damon/Brett Gardner/Melky Cabrera and Xavier Nady. Signing Manny Ramirez would give them a productive left fielder, but would also force Damon/Gardner/Cabrera to play center field. First base is a hole with Giambi gone, unless the Yankees can convince Jorge Posada to remain healthy and move from behind the plate (in which case the Yankees have a hole at catcher). Most of all, though, the Yankees lack any pitching. If the season began today, the Yankees' starting rotation would have fewer than 23 career wins after their ace-- with Chien-Ming Wang followed by Joba Chamberlain, Phillip Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Darrell Rasner (or 15 career wins with Alfredo Aceves). While it's quite possible that Wang and Chamberlain would be a dominant 1-2 combination sufficient to win another division, it doesn't compare to the Rays, Sox, or Jays. They need to add at least two starters, and probably three. If the Yankees don't re-sign Marte, they have no left-handers in the bullpen, so a move would be necessary there as well.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Chien-Ming Wang will be back in 2009, but it's unclear whether he'll have any lingering effects from his lis franc injury. Jorge Posada is coming back from a partially torn labrum that should heal by 2009, but his age has to give the Yankees concern about depending on him for more than about 80 games. Joba Chamberlain's rotator cuff tendinitis ended his season prematurely, which means he may still not be ready to spend a full season in the rotation.

Free agent ceiling: Are you kidding? This is the Yankees. They're not going to sign Mark Teixeira, Manny Ramirez, and C.C. Sabathia, but two out of three isn't even unlikely, let alone implausible.

Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays have already had a busy offseason, raiding other teams 40-man castaways -- including Les Walron (Phillies), Bryan Bullington (Indians), Angel Sanchez (Royals), Kelvin Jimenez (Cardinals), and Adam Loewen (Orioles). Their free agents are mostly insignificant, with only two meaningful players (Burnett and Zaun): A.J. Burnett, Kevin Mench (minor league FA), John Parrish, Shannon Stewart, Brad Wilkerson, Gregg Zaun

Most likely to return: John Parrish may get a minor league deal. The other players are as good as gone.

Most likely to leave: Gregg Zaun was on XM yesterday and sounded as if the Blue Jays were part of the distant past. With a number of teams having holes at catcher, Zaun could fit on a lot of teams -- Florida, San Diego, New York Mets or Yankees, Cincinnati, maybe even Boston. A.J. Burnett is likely to find more money in Baltimore or New York in the near future.

Non-tender candidates:Russ Adams has fallen off the radar, though not off the 40-man roster for the Jays.

Prospect on the rise: Travis Snider made the major leagues at age 20 and will likely stick with the Blue Jays in a DH/LF role in 2009. If he and Adam Lind can produce and the Jays can add a starting pitcher, the Jays have an outside shot at competing for a wild card spot.

Needs: Starting pitching and a middle infielder -- Starting pitching is a must because of the injuries to Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan. While McGowan seems likely to return in early 2009, Marcum is likely out for the season. Halladay, McGowan, and Litsch are solid, but there's little besides David Purcey behind them. The middle infield for the Jays was full of former 4A players for the Indians with Joe Inglett and John McDonald getting a combined 560 plate appearances. Scutaro could be a fill-in at shortstop and Aaron Hill should be back in 2009, but it would make more sense to find another productive infielder. Hill has played shortstop in the past, but was moved because of defensive insufficiency, so it's not clear whether he could stick at short.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Dustin McGowan had surgery to repair a torn labrum in 2008 and is uncertain for spring training in 2009. Shaun Marcum is out for at least most of 2009 after Tommy John surgery. Aaron Hill missed most of 2008 with a concussion, a return to his 2007 form (or better) is essential if the Blue Jays are going to score any runs in 2009.

Free agent ceiling: The Blue Jays would have loved if this offseason had occurred a few months ago, when the Canadian dollar was much stronger against the U.S. Dollar. Now, not so much. They're not likely to compete for the real high-ceiling free agents, but might be able to sign a Derek Lowe or a Ben Sheets.

Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles had a few impressive performances in 2008 -- solid relief pitching from the likes of Jim Johnson and George Sherrill, decent production from Adam "Not Pacman" Jones, good years from Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis and eventually Melvin Mora, and a solid year from Luke Scott. But they still finished as the only team in the AL East to finish below .500, played to sparse crowds at a lot of their home games, and didn't find any young starter who could lock down a rotation spot, with three of their starters finishing the season with ERAs north of 6.00. They now face a few not-so-difficult decisions: Juan Castro, Alex Cintron, Kevin Millar, and Jay Payton are free agents.

Most likely to return: I can't say I'm certain on any of these players. Dave Trembley loves infield defense, so Juan Castro probably has a shot to stick around, since two of the Orioles' other shortstops are minor league free agents. Kevin Millar still seems to be a fan favorite in Baltimore.

Most likely to leave: Jay Payton wanted out last year. He didn't get the opportunity then. He'll get it now.

Non-tender candidates:There's talk that Daniel Cabrera could be non-tendered, but when your number 3-5 starters had 6.00+ ERAs, it's hard to see why the perpetual frustration with Cabrera's control would warrant his release. Hayden Penn was once a top prospect for the O's rotation, but is coming off his third straight season at AAA and hasn't even gotten a September callup since 2006. Then again, he's a pitcher.

Prospect on the rise: Matt Wieters is widely considered one of the top 10 prospects in baseball at this point and could join the team later in 2009. David Hernandez and Chris Tillman both had effective seasons at AA Bowie, and both could figure in the rotation plans for Baltimore in 2009.

Needs: Starting pitching and Shortstop. The Orioles have one major league starter on their roster, and he (Jeremy Guthrie) was a waiver claim 24 months ago. There are a few other potential starters in the system, but without a real veteran presence to guide them, things are likely to be rough for a while. Few teams had so woeful a cast of characters at a position as the 2008 Orioles did at shortstop. Can you name two of the six players who started games at shortstop for the Orioles (without rechecking their list of free agents)? Juan Castro, Freddie Bynum, Luis Hernandez, Alex Cintron, Brandon Fahey, and Eider Torres. I've attended games started by four of that motley crew and couldn't have done any better than two.

Injuries that could figure in 2009: Danys Baez is talking about returning after spending the last two years on the DL. Good news for the O's, he wants to be a starter. Chris Ray may rejoin the bullpen after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August 2007, Troy Patton will be back in 2009 after undergoing right labrum surgery that removed him from the Orioles' rotation options. Matt Albers underwent surgery on his own labrum that will hold him back at the outset of 2009, but he may be ready by spring training.

Free agent ceiling: The Orioles had a lot of lows in 2008, including the least attended game in Oriole Park's history (I was there -- Pat Sajak threw out the first pitch), and a spate of injuries to the pitchers that were supposed to compete for rotation spots. But Peter Angelos has been willing to overpay for free agents in the past. Now freed of most of those Jim Duquette contracts, the Orioles may be able to make a play for two local players in Mark Teixiera and A.J. Burnett. I wouldn't expect either to sign with the O's, but they'll be given something to consider.